Annukka Lehikoinen

• PhD (Env Sci)
• Research Director at Kotka Maritime Research Centre

Strategic environmental risk management and planning must account for uncertainty and complexity, necessitating methods that facilitate scenario development under incomplete knowledge. This paper introduces a participatory modelling (PM) -based knowledge co-production and strategic planning approach utilizing one type of AI tool - Bayesian Networks...

Sustainability and sustainable development are ambiguous concepts, framed and understood differently by different actors. The diverse interpretations also influence how the goals of sustainable development are defined. In this study, individual boaters and marina actors were interviewed for a deep analysis on how they define sustainability and sust...

Acute environmental emergencies and disasters call for multi-organisational collaboration where each individual response agency has their own responsibilities and specific roles in an emergency operation. However, different operational systems, cultures and norms between the response agencies can hamper such collaboration and the formation of share...

If a major oil spill materializes on the Baltic Sea, it is of utmost importance that different actors can, both nationally and internationally, join their forces and react fast and effectively to minimize its negative impacts to people and environment. The successful implementation of such complex multi-organizational processes under heavy time pre...

Biofouling of ship hulls form a vector for the introduction of non-indigenous organisms worldwide. Through increasing friction, the organisms attached to ships' hulls increase the fuel consumption, leading to both higher fuel costs and air emissions. At the same time, ship biofouling management causes both ecological risks and monetary costs. All t...

The magnitude and speed of change in complex human-environmental systems pose a systemic dilemma for societies. Human-induced environmental changes have pushed Earth's socio-ecological systems into an era of chronic, complex, and rapid disruptions, which call for quick intuitive decisions and effective implementation. Yet the complexity, interconne...

Marinas are a part of coastal areas' touristic appeal, but also hotspots for boat-sourced pollution. Considering the manifestation of sustainability in marina operation, we utilize actor-network theory (ANT) in demonstrating a conceptual systems analysis on boat-sourced sewage management (BSSM) as one important socio-eco-technical sub-system of sus...

Artikkelissa esitellään menetelmä strategisen ennakoinnin harjoitteluun. Menetelmä perustuu skenaarioiden edustamiseen todennäköisyyspohjaisen kausaalimallinnuksen keinoin. Mallinnuksessa hyödynnetään bayeslaiseen kausaalipäättelyyn perustuvaa mallia, Bayes-verkkoa. Harjoitusmenetelmää on testattu ensimmäisen kerran suomalaisen kaupunkiorganisaatio...

Biofouling of ships causes major environmental and economic consequences all over the world. In addition, biofouling management of ship hulls causes both social, environmental and economic risks that should all be considered reaching well-balanced decisions. In addition, each case is unique and thus optimal management strategy must be considered ca...

Ship hulls create a vector for the transportation of harmful non-indigenous species (NIS) all over the world. To sustainably prevent NIS introductions, the joint consideration of environmental, economic and social aspects in the search of optimal biofouling management strategies is needed. This article presents a multi-perspective soft systems anal...

Modeling is essential for modern science, and science-based policies are directly affected by the reliability of model outputs. Artificial intelligence has improved the accuracy and capability of model simulations, but often at the expense of a rational understanding of the systems involved. The lack of transparency in black box models, artificial...

Dioxins have been an inconvenience to the Baltic Sea ecosystem for decades. Although the concentrations in the environment and biota have continuously decreased, dioxins still pose a risk to human health. The risk and its formation vary in different parts of the Baltic Sea, due to variability in the environmental and societal factors affecting it....

The implementation challenge of ecosystem-based (fisheries) management (EB(F)M) has entailed calls for integrated governance (IG) approaches in the marine field. We arranged an expert workshop to study the preconditions and applicability of IG, and to suggest how IG could be arranged in practice. Focusing on the management of the dioxin problem sha...

Ecological indicator approaches typically compare the prevailing state of an ecosystem component to a reference state reflecting good environmental conditions, i.e. the desirable state. However, defining the reference state is challenging due to a wide range of uncertainties related to natural variability and measurement error in data, as well as e...

Human activities both depend upon and have consequences on the environment. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is a process of estimating the probability and consequences of the adverse effects of human activities and other stressors on the environment. Bayesian networks (BNs) can synthesize different types of knowledge and explicitly account for...

Fisheries management aims to ensure that the fishing activities are environmentally sustainable in the long term, while also achieving the economic, social and food security related management objectives. To facilitate this, both the ecological and human dimensions of sustainability need to be included in fisheries assessment. In addition, assessin...

Participatory modelling increases the transparency of environmental planning and management processes and enhances the mutual understanding among different parties. We present a sequential probabilistic approach to involve stakeholders' views in the formal decision support process. A continuous Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model is used to estimat...

The opening of new areas for offshore drilling in the Arctic is highly controversial. As ice cover in the region is melting at an alarming rate, new areas have been opened for petroleum industry in the Norwegian Barents Sea. Our qualitative analysis examines risks related to the petroleum operations in the newly opened areas and provides insight in...

In the Appendix more information about the data used in the analyses is provided, including information about the fish monitoring areas and discretization (cut points) of the variables in different models. In addition the performance metrics comparison for different classifiers tested (in addition to TAN) and general analysis protocol are provided.

The state of marine ecosystems is increasingly evaluated using indicators. The indicator assessment results need to be understood in the context of the whole ecosystem in order to understand the key factors determining the status of these environmental components. Data available from the system's different components are, however, often heterogeneo...

Involving stakeholders in the context of both business planning and environmental management is important to ensure joint understanding of prevailing or potential problems and risks, the objectives of different parties, and the best ways to attain them. This report presents a study concerning the sustainable development of small ports in the Easter...

The 30MILES project aims at sustainably developing lively water tourism in the eastern Gulf of Finland, part of the Baltic Sea. Within the project, preferences of Finnish and Estonian boaters were probed in a query. Our discussion of responses to the query’s three open-ended questions considers the scientific frameworks of sustainable development a...

Many coastal and offshore fish species are highly dependent on specific habitat types for population maintenance. In the Baltic Sea, shallow productive habitats in the coastal zone such as wetlands, vegetated flads/lagoons and sheltered bays as well as more exposed rocky and sandy areas are utilised by fish across many life history stages including...

The highly globalized and competitive nature of the shipping industry poses serious governance challenges. Recently, the use of voluntary measures, such as corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives, has been explored in terms of moving towards environmentally and socially responsible as well as safe shipping industry practices. Limited atte...

https://www.havochvatten.se/download/18.5114cf181604c603d486bf14/1513605492010/statusklassning-inom-msfd-ostersjon.pdf

Many fish species in the Baltic Sea are dependent on shallow and sheltered near-shore habitats for their spawning, nursery, feeding and migration. Still, the role of these essential fish habitats, EFH, for the development and support for fish production has received little attention. As coastal EFH often are found in areas heavily impacted by human...

PERMALINK: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/166296

PERMALINK: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/166296

PERMALINK: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/166296

A rapid increase in maritime traffic together with challenging navigation conditions and a vulnerable ecosystem has evoked calls for improving maritime safety in the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea. It is suggested that these improvements will be the result of adopting a regionally effective proactive approach to safety policy formulation and manag...

List of abbreviations used; table presenting all the model variables with their sources of input; information on the Bayesian networks; descriptions of the submodels; results and discussion concerning the background uncertainty; link to the model file.

The growth of maritime oil transportation in the Gulf of Finland (GoF), North-Eastern Baltic Sea, increases environmental risks by increasing the probability of oil accidents. By integrating the work of a multi-disciplinary research team and information from several sources, we have developed a probabilistic risk assessment application that conside...

Biodiversity is globally recognised as a cornerstone of healthy ecosystems, and biodiversity conservation is increasingly becoming one of the important aims of environmental management. Evaluating the tradeoffs of alternative management strategies requires quantitative estimates of the costs and benefits of their outcomes, including the value of bi...

There is an increasing need for environmental management advice that is wide-scoped, covering various interlinked policies, and realistic about the uncertainties related to the possible management actions. To achieve this, efficient decision support integrates the results of pre-existing models. Many environmental models are deterministic, but the...

A maritime accident involving an oil tanker may lead to large scale mortality or reductions in populations of coastal species due to oil. The ecological value at stake is the biota on the coast, which are neither uniformly nor randomly distributed. We used an existing oil spill simulation model, an observation database of threatened species, and a...

Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is a process of estimating the probability and consequences of an adverse event due to pressures or changes in environmental conditions resulting from human activities. Its purpose is to search the optimal courses of action under uncertainty when striving for the sustainable use of environment through minimizing...

Environmental managers must make decisions about complex problems that have a high degree of uncertainty such as, which nutrient abatement measure optimally improves the condition of an ecosystem. Although data and models that provide information on this subject exist, their knowledge may be fragmentary and difficult to interpret. We present a user...

Executive summary The MIMIC project (Minimizing risks of maritime oil transport by holistic safety strategies) developed proactive management approaches to risks related to maritime oil transportation, focusing on the Gulf of Finland, in the Baltic Sea. In this sea area, the volume of oil transportation has nearly quadrupled during the past ten yea...

Oil transport has strongly increased in the Gulf of Finland over the years and risks of an oil accident occurring have rose. Thus, an effective oil combating strategy is needed. We developed a Bayesian Network (BN, Figures 2 and 3) to examine the recovery efficiency and optimal disposition of the Finnish oil combating vessels in the Gulf of Finland...

The maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland is predicted to rapidly increase in the near future, which increases the environmental risks both through direct environmental effects and by increasing the accident risk. This paper describes a multidisciplinary modelling approach, where, based on growth predictions, the maritime traffic in the Gulf of F...

Most of the analyses related to eutrophication focus on cyanobacterial blooms or increased primary production. However, eutrophication may also lead to disappearance of species, which is a real risk to the ecosystem. In this paper, we introduce a prototype of a decision assessment model that takes into account the biodiversity risks of eutrophicati...

Conrad's false mussel, Mytilopsis leucophaeata has been found in the central Gulf of Finland, which is the first record of this brackish water dreissenid species in the northern Baltic Sea. In 2003 a strong recruitment of young dreissenid bivalves was observed and in 2004 dense assemblages consisting of adult M. leucophaeata were discovered in an a...