Anne Goujon

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• Ph.D
• Program Director at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Significance The future pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa is the main determinant of future world population growth and will have massive implications for Africa and the rest of the world, not least through international migration pressure and difficulties in meeting the sustainable development goals. In this context, there have been...

This study examines the potential economic and labour market impacts of a hypothetical but plausible migration scenario of 250,000 new migrants inspired by Austria’s experience in 2015. Using the agent-based macroeconomic model developed by Poledna et al. (Eur Econ Rev, 151:104306, 2023. 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104306, the study explores the deta...

The recent debate on population dynamics and climate change has highlighted the importance of assessing and quantifying disparities in populations’ vulnerability and adopting a forward-looking manner when considering the potential impacts of climate change on different communities and regions. In this article, we overlay demographic projections bas...

The introduction to the 2022 Special Issue presents the 20 articles that discuss the demographic aspects and the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. It synthesises the main findings from the contributions, emphasising the demographic, social and economic characteristics that influenced the spread of infections and determined the number of deaths...

In European countries, where the demographic transition has reached advanced stages and the natural increase has fallen below zero, migration constitutes a significant component of local population change. We investigate to what extent the dynamics of international migration and internal mobility changed during the first waves of the COVID‐19 pande...

The immediate effects of COVID-19 on mortality, fertility, and internal and international migration have been widely studied. Particularly, immigration to high-income countries declined in 2020. However, the persistence of these declines and the extent to which they have impacted different migration flows are yet to be established. Drawing on immig...

The first set of population projections following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) was developed in 2013. These projections have found widespread use within the environmental and climate change community, among others. In 2018, an SSPs update was generated but not integrated into the SSP database. In 2021, the SSP community requested an upd...

This Letter to Editor is a supplement to the previously published article in the Journal of Official Statistics (Wazir and Goujon 2021). In 2021, a reconstruction method using demographic analysis for assessing the quality and validity of the 2017 census data has been applied, by critically investigating the demographic changes in the intercensal p...

In this paper, we project Skills in Literacy Adjusted Mean Years of Schooling (SLAMYS) for the working age population in 45 countries and quinquennial time periods until 2050 according to various population scenarios. Moreover, we integrate the effect of school closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic on these projections. Adult skills are projected u...

Across the European Union (EU) Local Administrative Units (LAUs), populations are experiencing persisting differences in their age structures that can only be interpreted accounting for migration and mobility components. Yet, in the absence of census data, migration patterns of local populations are not available from EU‐official statistics. To fil...

While the link between better health, on the one hand, and lower fertility and higher educational attainment levels, on the other, has been well established, the critical impact of education achievements on population trends and structure is often overlooked at the policy level. This chapter first describes how education programs and policies that...

Population dynamics at the global level are slow-moving and demographic foresight to support forward-looking and proactive planning and policy-making should recognise that the global population is very likely to continue to grow over the short and medium term of the next 30 to 40 years. However, long-term projections on the global demographic futur...

Background: Ageing is central in the European Union (EU) policy debate, with all member states being concerned about implications of growing shares of older people and declining shares of working-age populations for the sustainability of welfare and health systems. Beyond this general context, ageing patterns differ largely across EU territories be...

The publication provides a compact, up-to-date and easily understandable insight into Austria's religious diversity. In the introduction, the concept of religion is described, an outline of developments in the history of religions and legal history in dealing with religions is given, and developments in the demographics of religion in Austria are o...

The publication provides a compact, up-to-date and easily understandable insight into Austria's religious diversity. In the introduction, the concept of religion is described, an outline of developments in the history of religions and legal history in dealing with religions is given, and developments in the demographics of religion in Austria are o...

The report quantifies exposed and vulnerable populations to climate change in Africa based on climate, demographic and socio-economic scenarios and analyses past trends, to detect statically significant associations between net migration and climate. It follows a spatial demographic approach and covers the entire territory of Africa with data and p...

In 2017, Pakistan implemented a long-awaited population census since the last one conducted in 1998. However, several experts are contesting the validity of the census data at the sub-national level, particularly in the absence of a post-enumeration survey. We propose in this article to use demographic analysis to assess the results of the 2017 cen...

Niger has the fastest population growth in the world while being among the least developed countries. With an average fertility above seven children per woman in the last decades, rapid population growth will continue in the medium to long term representing a planning challenge for Niger's development whose actual population is likely to double wit...

This article explores for a large number of countries in the European Union (plus the United Kingdom) the main demographic differentials in positive tested COVID-19 cases and excess mortality during the first wave in 2020, accounting for differences at territorial level, where population density and size play a main role in the diffusion and effect...

ATLAS OF DEMOGRAPHY a new knowledge management tool to better understand demographic change https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/atlas-demography_en The Atlas of Demography is a new interactive tool from the European Commission. It brings together demographic data from official statistics and projections as well as new data produced by the Joint R...

Lowering desired family size is a necessary precondition for fertility declines in high-fertility settings. Although accumulated evidence links socioeconomic developments to changing fertility desires, little research has disentangled the relative importance of key socioeconomic determinants. Combining individual-and community-level data from Demog...

In the EU, the right to timely access the ‘affordable, preventive and curative health care of good quality’ and the right to ‘affordable long-term services of good quality’ are enshrined in the European Pillar of Social Rights (C(2017) 2600 final). The backbone of health and long-term care (LTC) systems’ capacity to ensure that EU citizens can exer...

Significance After a rapid expansion of primary school enrollment rates in many developing countries starting around 2000, progress toward development goals was widely acknowledged. However, the comprehensive focus on tested literacy skills presented in this paper shows that, in many countries, this expansion in quantity came at the expense of qual...

The addition of dimensions beyond age and sex in multistate population projections has two major objectives: first, to increase the accuracy of the projected population by capturing the heterogeneity present in the population that could affect the overall system; secondly, and more importantly, to increase the level of information provided by the p...

The aim of this paper is to check the quality of fertility data collected through Demographic and Health Surveys in Egypt between 1988 and 2014. We are particularly interested to assess whether fertility changes observed since 2000 that point at a stall in fertility decline followed by a substantial increase between 2008 and 2014 are real and not d...

This study examines the migration intentions of young people in Egypt before and after the 2011 revolution, driven by three sets of factors: (1) individual demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, (2) household characteristics, and (3) community characteristics and political and civic participation. Logistic regression models are applied to s...

This study examines the association between children’s education and parental health using data from the 2007 Philippine Study on Ageing. It employs a broad, more comprehensive, definition of health to capture the different health dimensions. By employing multiple indicators of health, this study is able to examine whether the influence of children...

The European Demographic Data Sheet 2020 reviews, explores and visualises recent population trends in 45 European countries. The data sheet also provides a snapshot of the current research at the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital and collaborating researchers, with the 2020 issue focused on measuring and assessing educatio...

The COVID-19 virus has spread within the last weeks to a large number of countries worldwide. Increasing evidence suggests that the epidemics does not impact everyone the same. In this note we explore the main demographic differentials in the spread and impact of COVID-19 paying special attention to the combined effect of age and gender, and to the...

The human capital of the working age population has in the past shown to be a key driver not only of economic growth and poverty reduction but also of health, quality of institutions, and adaptive capacity to environmental change. Human capital has mostly been measured in terms of mean years of schooling of the population or the highest educational...

To the surprise of many observers, Pakistan's last census revealed faster-than-expected population increases. High fertility continues to drive substantial population growth in the world's fifth most populated country. Anne Goujon, Asif Wazir, and Nicholas Gailey describe Pakistan's demographic changes over the last 3 decades and offer possible exp...

Le Pakistan comptait 208 millions d’habitants en 2017 d’après le dernier recensement de sa population. Celle-ci s’est accrue de 2,4 % par an depuis le recensement précédent de 1998. Le pays connaît une transition démographique plus lente que la plupart de ses voisins d’Asie. L’indice synthétique de fécondité (ISF) y est plus élevé, 3,6 enfants par...

Introduction: In Africa, a majority of women bring their infant to health services for immunization, but few are checked in the postpartum (PP) period. The Missed opportunities for maternal and infant health (MOMI) EU-funded project has implemented a package of interventions at community and facility levels to uptake maternal and infant postpartum...

This report assesses all the positive potential benefits digitalization brings to sustainable development for all. It also highlights the potential negative impacts and challenges going forward, particularly for those impacted by the ‘digital divide’ that excludes primarily people left behind during the Industrial Revolution like the billion that g...

In 2017, Pakistan implemented a long-awaited population census since the last one conducted in 1998. However, several experts are contesting the validity of the census data at the sub-national level, in the absence of a post-enumeration survey. We propose in this paper to use demographic analysis to assess the quality of the 2017 census at the sub-...

In 2017, Pakistan implemented a long-awaited population census since the last one conducted in 1998. However, several experts are contesting the validity of the census data at the sub-national level, in the absence of a post-enumeration survey. We propose in this paper to use demographic analysis to assess the quality of the 2017 census at the sub-...

This study illustrates the multidimensional, complex challenges faced by the education system in South Africa particularly and in Africa in general.

This paper documents the rationale, the data and the methodology for reconstructing the population of 185 countries by levels of educational attainment for the period 1950-2015, by age and sex. The reconstruction uses four main input types for each country: (1) The most recent and reliable education structure by age and sex, (2) any reliable histor...

The industrial revolution marked a turning point in mankind as it not only initiated an economic turn from predominantly agricultural to industrialized societies but also shaped the need for an education revolution. This was the period when most industrialized societies implemented compulsory schooling systems and created the opportunity for univer...

Religious affiliation is nowadays getting plenty of attention in Austria, in the public sphere with increased presence in the news and in the policy discourse. The aim of this study is to estimate the religious composition of the population of Vorarlberg in 2018, taking advantage of available data, such as census information and statistics on compo...

Abstract Background: The Missed Opportunities for Maternal and Infant Health (MOMI) project, which aimed at upgrading maternal and infant postpartum care (PPC), implemented a package of interventions including the integration of maternal PPC in infant immunization services in 12 health facilities in Kaya Health district in Burkina Faso from 2013 to...

A set of potential pathways to achive the Sustainable Development Goals

The Asian data sheet provides a window on indicators related to demographic changes and education processes in the countries of the region. It also includes data on labor force participation and urbanization. For each indicator, the data sheet allows a comparison between three data points: 2000, 2015 and 2030 according to a medium scenario projecti...

European Demographic Data Sheet 2018: Population-Human Capital-Diversity-Inequality portrays changes in population, fertility, human capital, health, education and economic dependency across the continent. It combines tables with figures, maps and short thematic boxes, and is available at http://www.populationeurope.org/.

The sheer number of population has been for long the main (and only) consideration about human population growth in ecological engineering and in other fields that are reflecting on the sustainability of life systems on earth. However with the availability of data on human behavior, we now know that what is important for the future is not only how...

Scientific knowledge on a population’s religious composition is essential to understand the challenges faced by societies today. It arises in opposition to speculations about the actual size of religious groups that have been increasingly present in the public discourse in Europe for many years. This is particularly the case in Austria where the fl...

Violent conflicts and social unrest in the Middle East, in Central Asia, and in Africa have led to growing numbers of persons seeking refuge in Europe since 2011. The phenomenon culminated in 2015. In that year, with 88,300 new asylum applications, Austria was the 4th largest receiver of asylum seekers in the EU, thereby increasing visibly religiou...

Abstract Background The Missed Opportunities in Maternal and Infant Health (MOMI) project aimed at reducing maternal and newborn mortality and morbidity within the year after childbirth in four sub-Saharan African countries. MOMI interventions including the integration of maternal and infant services in the postpartum (PP) period at day 6–10, week...

Abstract BACKGROUND The unusual fertility increase experienced by several Arab countries in the recent years is particularly visible in Egypt, where fertility declined very slowly after 2000 and started to increase again between 2008 and 2014. OBJECTIVE We first check the quality and measurement accuracy of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). The...

En Égypte, la fécondité, après avoir lentement diminué jusqu’à 3 enfants par femme en moyenne au milieu des années 2000, a réaugmenté récemment jusqu’à 3,5 enfants. Les femmes se marient plus tôt et plus souvent. Elles deviennent aussi mères plus jeunes. Selon certains, la cause en serait une remontée de la religiosité. Une explication plus convain...

Although the contribution of immigration and religious switching to the changing religious landscape in Canada seems well established, we lack knowledge on the religious switching of immigrants. In this study, we address if and to what extent immigrants to Canada change religion after their arrival. We use data on religious affiliation and other de...

Abstract BACKGROUND The unusual fertility increase experienced by several Arab countries in the recent years is particularly visible in Egypt, where fertility declined very slowly after 2000 and started to increase again between 2008 and 2014. OBJECTIVE We first check the quality and measurement accuracy of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). T...

Beginning in 1960, a phenomenon occurred that John Caldwell named the ‘global fertility transition’ (Caldwell, 1997), in which fertility declines have become the general rule throughout the world, including in the majority of the less developed countries. This is important partly because fertility is in many circumstances negatively associated with...

Condensed into a detailed analysis and a selection of continent-wide datasets, this revised edition of World Population & Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century addresses the role of educational attainment in global population trends and models. Presenting the full chapter text of the original edition alongside a concise selection of data, it su...

The aim of this paper is to check the quality of fertility data collected through Demographic and Health Surveys in Egypt between 1988 and 2014. We are particularly interested to assess whether fertility changes observed since 2000 that point at a stall in fertility decline followed by a substantial increase between 2008 and 2014 are real and not d...

There are two main approaches to reconstruct past populations. Back projection moves back in time while reconstruction moves forward. Back projections were ap- plied to reconstruct the level of educational attainment of the population according to four and six education categories. While the back projected data are validated against historical data...

The immigrants living in France and the refugees who arrived in Austria are more educated than most of the population in their country of origin. By comparison with the population in the host country, the picture is more mixed: some groups, such as immigrants from Portugal living in France, are relatively low educated, while others, such as Romania...

Les immigrés vivant en France et les réfugiés arrivés en Autriche sont plus instruits que la plupart des personnes restées dans leur pays de naissance. Par comparaison à la population de leur pays d’accueil, leur niveau d’instruction est varié : certains groupes comme les immigrés portugais vivant en France sont relativement peu instruits alors que...

Based on global harmonized data on educational attainment by age and sex estimated for the year 2010, the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU) has reconstructed past levels of education back to 1970 and projected those levels until 2100 according to several scenarios (Lutz, Butz, and K.C. 2014). This chap...

The idea that developing all sectors of the educational palette is influential for socio-economic development was adopted later in Sub-Saharan Africa than in other world regions. Most efforts went primarily into developing the first stages of education, and rightly so, for many children could not access education at all. Today, all African governme...

The immigrants living in France and the refugees who arrived in Austria are more educated than most of the population in their country of origin. By comparison with the population in the host country, the picture is more mixed: some groups, such as immigrants from Portugal living in France, are relatively low educated, while others, such as Romania...

Objective To propose a rationale to improve maternal postpartum care in reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health (RMNCH) services. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional mixed study in the Kaya health district in Burkina Faso based on two data collection exercises conducted between December 2012 and May 2013. A household survey of 757 moth...

All Arab countries experienced important fertility declines since the 1980s when the overall average fertility of women was around 6 children. However, a few countries are experiencing an unusual fertility increase in the recent years, in the 2005-2015 period: It is slight in Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco, and fertility decline is stalling in Iraq....

The paper provides a detailed overview of population dynamics and trends in the Arab region. Furthermore, it explains the concept of demographic dividend and timing of the window of opportunity. With a view to enable countries in the region to reap the benefits of the changing population structure, the window is calculated for each country. The las...

Since its inception in 2010, the Arab Spring has evolved into a situation of violent conflict in many countries, leading to high levels of migration from the affected region. Given the social impact of the large number of individuals applying for asylum across Europe in 2015, it is important to study who these persons are in terms of their skills,...

The quality of data on education is a substantial not only for academic research but also for policy makers, as past trends are important for future decision making. Today, these data are widely collected through censuses or surveys. However, international comparisons remain difficult due to different definitions, education systems and the differen...