Anna Morozova

Here we present datasets provided by a SCINDA GNSS receiver installed in Lisbon airport area from November of 2014 to July of 2019. The installed equipment is a NovAtel EURO4 with a JAVAD Choke-Ring antenna. The data are in the archived format and include the general messages on quality of records (*.msg), random number generator files (*.rng), raw observables as the signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios, pseudoranges and phases (*.obs), receiver position information (*.psn), ionosphere scintillations monitor (*.ism) and ionospheric parameters: total electron content, TEC, rate of change of TEC, ROTI, and the scintillation index S4 (*.scn). The presented data cover the full 2015 year. The raw data are of 1-minute resolution and available for each of receiver-satellite pairs. The processing and the analysis of the ionosphere scintillation datasets can be done using a dedicated "SCINDA-Iono" toolbox for MATLAB developed by T. Barlyaeva (2019) and available online via MathWorks File Exchange system. The toolbox allows to calculate 1-hour means for ionospheric parameters both for each of available receiver-satellite pairs and averaged over all available satellites during the analyzed hour. Here we present also the processed data for the following months in 2015: March, June, October, and December. The months were selected as containing most significant geomagnetic events of 2015. The 1-hour means for other months can be obtained from the raw data using, e.g. the aforementioned toolbox. The provided datasets can be of interest for the GNSS and ionosphere scientific communities.

The total ionospheric content (TEC) over the midlatitudinal area (Iberian Peninsula) was studied using data from two locations (on the west and east coasts) obtained both by the GNSS receivers and an ionosonde. The principal component analysis applied to the TEC data allowed us to extract two main modes. The variations of these modes as well as the original TEC data were studied in relations to four strongest geomagnetic storms of 2015, three geomagnetic disturbances of lower amplitude observed during the same months as the storms. Seven of eight analyzed geomagnetic events were associated with positive-negative ionospheric storms (seen both in TEC daily cycle amplitude and in the Mode 1). Four out of eight analyzed geomagnetic events were associated with variations of the Mode 2 that can be described as the appearance of the second daily peak on the 1st day of the storm and a deep in TEC variations on the 2nd day. Besides, the effect of solar flares and the solar UV and XR fluxes on TEC variations during four months of 2015 and an effect on TEC of a partial solar eclipse observed on March 20, 2015 were studied. These events were found to affect only the amplitude of the daily cycle (Mode 1).

Here we present a "SCINDA-Iono" toolbox for the MATLAB. This is a software to analyze ionosphere scintillation indices provided by a SCINDA GNSS receiver. The toolbox is developed in the MATLAB R2018b. This software allows to preprocess the original data and analyze ionosphere scintillations on the 1-minute and 1-hour time scales both for averaged over all available satellites values and separately for each receiver-satellite pair.

Methods: • Principal Component Analysis (PCA) • Cross-correlation analysis Conclusions: • The ionosphere TEC data from the SCINDA, other GNSS receivers (Lisbon and Ebro) and Ebro observatory ionosonde are well correlated between each other. The correlation coefficients are ~0.93-0.97 for the original hourly data, ~0.92-0.95 for the 1 st PCA component and ~0.74-0.94 for the 2 nd PCA component. • The responses to the geomagnetic storms are clearly seen in the all datasets, despite that the corresponding correlation coefficients between the daily series are quiet moderate (see plots in TEC&SW). • Also for all months except December there is strong dependence of the TEC variations on the solar UV & XR flux. • The ionosphere TEC data provided by SCINDA receiver can be used for an analysis of the ionosphere TEC response to the Space Weather disturbances, as well as for the Space Weather alert service that is under development in the framework of thee SWAIR project. Chosen Space Weather active dates : Here we present results only for 2015. The geomagnetically active days in 2015 are: March 17 , June 22-23, September 8-9, October 7, December 14&20. Here we present graphics only for March 2015, but discuss the results for all mentioned dates. Acknowledgements: The authors thank: ARTES IAP DEMOSTRATION PROJECTS and CITEUC founded by FCT, FEDER, COMPETE2020 (UID/MULTI/00611/2019; POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006922). EGU2019-2105 • The highest correlation (~0.93-0.97) is seen between the SCN and ROB (Lisbon) data. • The lowest correlation, but still high (r = ~0.93-0.94), is seen between the Lisbon and Ebro data. • The same tendency is observed when only PCA modes 1 are compared. • For the PCA mode 2 components the correlation coefficients are also high with minimal r=0.74 between the PCA mode 2 of the SCN and ionosonde series. TEC: hourly means Introduction: This work is aimed to study the relation of the ionosphere TEC data provided by the SCINDA receiver (installed in the Lisbon airport) to the similar data provided by other GNSS receivers (Lisbon and Ebro) and ionosonde (Ebro). The data are compared between each other. Special attention is paid to their sensibility to Space Weather conditions, done via the analysis of the geomagnetic storms seen in each of considered datasets.

Storms PC Analysis Magnetospheric contributions MT model References

Seminar Café com Física, UC, Dep. Física, Coimbra

This study presents the continuation of the analysis of variations of atmospheric and space weather parameters above Iberian Peninsula along two years near the 24th solar cycle maximum presented in Morozova et al. [2016]. Previously, the first mode of the principal component analysis was shown to correlate with the lower stratospheric ozone and anti-correlate with cosmic ray flux. In this paper we discuss the second mode that, to our mind, suggests a coupling between the stratosphere and ionosphere. This second mode, located in the low and middle stratosphere and explaining 6-15\% of temperature and 2.5\% of geopotential height variations, positively correlates with the middle-stratospheric ozone content. Among locally measured space weather parameters, this atmospheric mode negatively correlates with the ionospheric total electron content. The stratospheric-ionospheric coupling was analyzed using the correlation and wavelet analyses. Found similarities between variations of the stratospheric and ionospheric parameters were tested with a method allowing estimation of the causal nature of the found relationships, the convergent cross mapping (CCM). Strong evidences for the stratospheric-ionospheric coupling were obtained for the winter 2012-2013 that is characterized by the east QBO phase and a strong sudden stratospheric warming event.

Methods: • Principal Component Analysis (PCA) • Cross-correlation analysis Conclusions: • The ionosphere TEC data from the SCINDA, other GNSS receivers (Lisbon and Ebro) and Ebro observatory ionosonde are well correlated between each other. The correlation coefficients are ~0.93-0.97 for the original hourly data, ~0.92-0.95 for the 1 st PCA component and ~0.74-0.94 for the 2 nd PCA component. • The responses to the geomagnetic storms are clearly seen in the all datasets, despite that the corresponding correlation coefficients between the daily series are quiet moderate (see plots in TEC&SW). • Also for all months except December there is strong dependence of the TEC variations on the solar UV & XR flux. • The ionosphere TEC data provided by SCINDA receiver can be used for an analysis of the ionosphere TEC response to the Space Weather disturbances, as well as for the Space Weather alert service that is under development in the framework of thee SWAIR project. Chosen Space Weather active dates : Here we present results only for 2015. The geomagnetically active days in 2015 are: March 17 , June 22-23, September 8-9, October 7, December 14&20. Here we present graphics only for March 2015, but discuss the results for all mentioned dates. Acknowledgements: The authors thank: ARTES IAP DEMOSTRATION PROJECTS and CITEUC founded by FCT, FEDER, COMPETE2020 (UID/MULTI/00611/2019; POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006922). EGU2019-2105 • The highest correlation (~0.93-0.97) is seen between the SCN and ROB (Lisbon) data. • The lowest correlation, but still high (r = ~0.93-0.94), is seen between the Lisbon and Ebro data. • The same tendency is observed when only PCA modes 1 are compared. • For the PCA mode 2 components the correlation coefficients are also high with minimal r=0.74 between the PCA mode 2 of the SCN and ionosonde series. TEC: hourly means Introduction: This work is aimed to study the relation of the ionosphere TEC data provided by the SCINDA receiver (installed in the Lisbon airport) to the similar data provided by other GNSS receivers (Lisbon and Ebro) and ionosonde (Ebro). The data are compared between each other. Special attention is paid to their sensibility to Space Weather conditions, done via the analysis of the geomagnetic storms seen in each of considered datasets.

For the 2007 to 2014 period, we use a statistical approach to evaluate the performance of Tsyganenko and Sitnov [2005] semi-empirical model (TS05) in estimating the magnetospheric transient signal observed at four Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude ground stations: Coimbra, Portugal; Panagyurishte, Bulgary; Novosibirsk, Russia and Boulder, USA. Using hourly mean data, we find that the TS05 performance is clearly better for the X (North-South) than for the Y (East-West) field components and for more geomagnetically active days as determined by local K-indices. In ∼50% (X) and ∼30% (Y) of the total number of geomagnetically active days, correlation values yield r≥0.7. During more quiet conditions, only ∼30% (X) and ∼15% (Y) of the number of analyzed days yield r≥0.7. We compute separate contributions from different magnetospheric currents to data time variability and to signal magnitude. During more active days, all tail, symmetric ring and partial ring currents contribute to the time variability of X while the partial ring and field aligned currents contribute most to the time variability of Y. The tail and symmetric ring currents are main contributors to the magnitude of X. In the best case estimations when r≥0.7, remaining differences between observations and TS05 predictions could be explained by global induction in the Earth's upper layers and crustal magnetization. The closing of field aligned currents through the Earth's center in the TS05 model seems to be mainly affecting the Y magnetospheric field predictions.

The study is based on the analysis of atmospheric and space weather parameters in the mid-latitude region (Iberian Peninsula) during, approximately, the epoch of the 24th solar cycle maximum. The Principal Component Analysis was applied to sets of air temperature and geopotential height measurement at different pressure levels from a near ground level (930 hPa) to the stratosphere (up to 10 hPa). The analysis of extracted modes shows couplings between atmospheric and medium-term variations (from weeks to months) of space weather parameters. The first mode of the atmospheric variability obtained from the regional data sets is related to the atmospheric dynamic processes that are common for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. Extracted temperature and pressure variations are located in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere region and positively correlate with ozone content variations. Among space weather parameters, this atmospheric mode shows statistically significant negative correlation with the ground-measured cosmic ray flux measured by the Castilla-La Mancha neutron monitor (Spain) and weaker or no correlation with geomagnetic parameters.

Cosmic rays originating from extraterrestrial sources are permanently arriving at Earth atmosphere, where they produce up to billions of secondary particles. The analysis of the secondary particles reaching to the surface of the Earth may provide a very valuable information about the Sun activity, changes in the geomagnetic field and the atmosphere, among others. In this article, we present the first preliminary results of the analysis of the cosmic rays measured with a high resolution tracking detector, TRAGALDABAS, located at the Univ. of Santiago de Compostela, in Spain.

The Iberian Peninsula is located in the South-West of Europe between 36º00’ N and 43º47’ N and between 9º29’ W and 3º19’ E. There are four Geomagnetic Observatories currently operative in this area devoted to the observation of the Earth’s magnetic field: Observatori de l’Ebre (NE Spain); Observatorio de San Pablo de los Montes (central Spain); Observatorio de San Fernando (southern Spain); Observatório de Coimbra (central Portugal); plus another one, Observatorio de Güímar, in Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain). There is also one neutron monitor located in Guadalajara (central Spain; 40138’N, 319’W at 708 m asl) continuosly measuring the arrival of cosmic rays to the Earth’s surface. In this work we show combined observations of these six stations during events caused by solar activity. We analyse them looking for differences that could imply extremely local effects caused by the response of the Earth’s magnetosphere and ionosphere to solar activity.

The main goal of space weather (SW) research is to produce reliable forecasts and nowcasts of the space environment and to evaluate the risks for technological infrastructures and human safety. Most of SW studies concern high and equatorial latitudes, because of well-known and significant effects of field-aligned currents and the equatorial electrojet at those latitudes. Less studies are made at mid-latitudes, resulting in an incomplete understanding of the local effect of magnetospheric and ionospheric currents. We compare the performance of global indices of geomagnetic activity such as Dst and RC [1] , with simulations of the Tsyganenko semi-empirical model (TSY) of storm-time geomagnetic field [2] , during years 2007-2014, in predicting the irregular geomagnetic activity observed at three magnetic observatories sparsely distant in longitude, but with similar geomagnetic latitudes: Coimbra (COI, 40.22 N, 351.58 E), Boulder (BOU, 40.14 N, 254.76 E) and Novosibirsk (NVS, 54.85 N, 83.23 E). We use principal component analysis (PCA) to model the geomagnetic quiet daily variation (Sq) for the years 2007-2014. Then we analyse the performance of indices RC and Dst and of TSY simulations, in explaining series of the geomagnetic horizontal component (H) observed at ground.

1. Variations of the SW parameters measured on the ground (CR, geomagnetic and ionospheric parameters) are related to the solar activity (flares, CMEs etc.). 2. Upper atmospheric conditions (in the thermo/meso/stratospheres) depends also on solar activity (O 3 , NO x /HO x content, temperature), in particular on the CR and the solar UV flux variations. 3. Lower atmosphere (troposphere, tropopause & lower stratosphere) depends on the upper atmospheric conditions through, mainly, gravity waves propagating both in the vertical and horizontal directions. 3a. Midlatitude troposphere can be affected both from the top (midlatitude the thermo/meso/stratospheres) and through the meridional circulation (influenced by QBO). 3b. Co-variability of the midlatitude tropospheric and SW parameters can be due to:-the direct regional effect of the SW events on both ionosphere and atmosphere;-the indirect effect when polar atmosphere reacts first to the SW events and later transfer disturbances at the middle latitudes through circulation. The Principal Component Analysis of locally measured meteorological parameters (air temperature, T, and geopotential heights, gph) at different pressure levels in troposphere-lower stratosphere regions was used to extract variability modes which strongly resemble variations of space weather (SW) parameters. The study is based on the analysis of locally measured parameters on the Iberian Peninsula (Coimbra-COI, Madrid-CaLMa). The time scale of the atmospheric variations analysed in this study is from weeks to months. Three modes of the variations of T and gph at different pressure levels in the mid-latitude low atmosphere show co-variability with global and locally measured SW parameters : 1 st mode (common for the whole non-tropical NH stratosphere and include SSW events): • correlates with the local ground measured CR flux (r =-0.45) and with O 3 (r = 0.75); • correlates with the QBO phase (r =-0.46). 2 nd mode: • correlates with CR flux, geomagnetic field (COI H, Dst) and ionospheric parameters (TEC): r =-0.3. 3 rd mode: • correlates well with Dst index and COI H (r =-0.45), TEC and solar UV flux: r = 0.25-0.3; • correlates with the QBO phase (r =-0.4).

The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of meteorological parameters (air pressure and geopotential heights) at different pressure levels in troposphere and tropopause regions allows to extract components which strongly resemble variations of the cosmic rays (CR) and geomagnetic field. The study is based on the locally measured parameters (atmospheric, cosmic rays and geomagnetic) at the mid-latitudes (Spain and Portugal). The results of the analysis allow us to make two conclusions. At first, the methods used to correct the ground measured cosmic ray flux (measured by the neutron monitors) for the atmospheric depth variations based on the ground measured air pressure variations do not permit to fully exclude the atmospheric components from the measured CR variations. The corrected for pressure and efficiency data still contain an information on the long-term (with characteristic period from weeks to months) variations of the pressure (and temperature as well) of the top troposphere-tropopause (and probably, stratosphere) region. Secondly, the short-term (with characteristic period from days to weeks) variations of the atmospheric parameters show similarities with the variations of the geomagnetic filed on the same time scale. These variations can be observed at most of the tropospheric pressure levels. No significant co-variability was found between these short-term atmospheric modes and CR flux changes.

Research on cosmic rays is of big interest either for getting a better understanding about their origin and properties or because they offer very valuable information about the galactic, the solar and the Earth's environment. In order to improve our knowledge of all those fields, a high resolution cosmic ray tracking detector, TRAGALDABAS, is being commissioned at the Faculty of Physics of the Univ. of Santiago de Compostela (Spain). In this article we make overview of the main performances of the detector and we present some very preliminary results showing that the detector is taking good data, and that we are gathering a valuable sample of events, ready to be analyzed.

Understanding of aerosol sources that affect climate is an ongoing problem facing scientists as well as policymakers. The role of aerosols in local climate variability depends on a balance between light absorbing and scattering particles as well as on variability of environmental conditions. In this paper we investigate variability of aerosol content (both absorbing and scattering ultraviolet radiation) over continental Portugal in connection with aerosol sources (volcanic eruptions, dust events, wildfires and anthropogenic pollution). The effect of the aerosol on the climate is studied analyzing their contribution to variations of temperature, pressure, sunshine duration and precipitation over Portuguese regions. The present analysis is based on a developed modern multiple regression technique allowing us to build the statistical correlation models to determine both the main local aerosol sources and aerosol's influence on the climate of continental Portugal during 1978–1993. The analysis allows us to conclude that the main sources driving the variations of the aerosol content over studied locations are wildfires, mineral dust intrusions and anthropogenic pollution. The relations between the aerosol content variations and the atmospheric parameters depend on the level of urbanization of the studied region, the type of aerosol and the season. The most significant finding is the decrease of the daily maximum temperature (and diurnal temperature range) related to the decrease of sunshine duration observed during the summer periods of increased content of the absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere.

Cosmic rays of a wide range of energies are arriving permanently to the Earth coming from the Sun or beyond our solar system. Their study is of interest for many fields of research. A high granularity and high time resolution cosmic ray tracking detector, TRAGALDABAS, based on timing RPC cells, has been recently installed at the Faculty of Physics of the Univ. of Santiago de Compostela, in Spain, in order to go deeper into the understanding of the cosmic rays arriving to the Earth surface. In this article, the layout and the main performances of the detector are shown together and some of the expected research fields are discussed.

We use flows that we invert from two geomagnetic field models spanning centennial time periods (gufm1 and COV-OBS), and apply Principal Component Analysis and Singular Value Decomposition of coupled fields to extract the main modes characterizing their spatial and temporal variations. The quasi geostrophic flows inverted from both geomagnetic field models show similar features. However, COV-OBS has a less energetic mean flow and larger time variability. The statistical significance of flow components is tested from analyses performed on subareas of the whole domain. Bootstrapping methods are also used to extract robust flow features required by both gufm1 and COV-OBS. Three main empirical circulation modes emerge, simultaneously constrained by both geomagnetic field models and expected to be robust against the particular a priori used to build them. Mode 1 exhibits three large robust vortices at medium/high latitudes, with opposite circulation under the Atlantic and the Pacific hemispheres. Mode 2 interestingly accounts for most of the variations of the Earth's core angular momentum. In this mode, the regions close to the tangent cylinder and to the equator are correlated, and oscillate with a period between 80 and 90 years. Each of these two modes is energetic enough to alter the mean flow, sometimes reinforcing the eccentric gyre, and other times breaking it up into smaller circulations. Mode 3 shows more distinct spatial and temporal signatures in the two inverted flows, preventing the emergence of significant spatial features. The three main circulation modes added together to the mean flow account for about 70% of the flows variability, 90% of the root mean square total velocities, and 95% of the secular variation induced by the total flows. Direct physical interpretation of the computed modes is not straightforward. Nonetheless, similarities found between the two first modes and time/spatial features identified in different studies of core dynamics, suggest that our approach can help to pinpoint the relevant physical processes inside the core on centennial timescales.

The Coimbra Magnetic Observatory (International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy code COI) in Portugal has a long history of observation of the geomagnetic field, spanning almost 150 yr since the first geomagnetic measurements in 1866. These long instrumental geomagnetic records provide very important information about variability of geomagnetic elements and indices, their trends and cycles, and can be used to improve our knowledge on the sources that drive variations of the geomagnetic field: liquid core dynamics (internal) and solar forcing (external). However, during the long life of the Coimbra Observatory, some inevitable changes in station location, instrument's park and electromagnetic environment have taken place. These changes affected the quality of the data collected at COI causing breaks and jumps in the series of geomagnetic field components and local K index. Clearly, these inhomogeneities, typically shift-like (step-like) or trend-like, have to be corrected or, at least, minimized in order for the data to be used in scientific studies or to be submitted to international databases. In this study, the series of local K index and declination of the geomagnetic field are analysed: the former because it allows direct application of standard homogenization methods and the latter because it is the longest continuous series produced at COI. For the homogenization, visual and statistical tests (e.g. standard normal homogeneity test) have been applied directly to the local geomagnetic K index series (from 1951 to 2012). The homogenization of the monthly averages of declination (from 1867 to 2012) has been done using visual analysis and statistical tests applied to the time series of the first differences of declination values, as an approximation to the first time derivative. This allowed not only estimating the level of inhomogeneity of the studied series but also detecting the highly probable homogeneity break points. These points have been cross-checked with the metadata, and the COI series have been compared with reference series from the nearest geomagnetic stations and, in the case of declination series, from the recent geomagnetic field model COV-OBS to set up the required correction factors. As a result, the homogenized series measured in COI are considered to be essentially free of artificial shifts starting from the second half of the 20th century, and ready to be used by the scientific community.

Atmospheric aerosol is one of the possible natural drivers of climatic variations. The origins of atmospheric aerosol are connected with volcanic, anthropogenic activities as well as with result of natural chemical processes in boundary layer and free atmosphere. Extensive remote sensing of aerosol parameters over different altitude/longitude/time ranges gives us possibility to investigate the role of aerosol variability in deviations of temperature parameters over selected regions. New homogeneous data sets of more than centennial-long measurements of monthly averages for the four temperature parameters (minimum, maximum and average temperature and diurnal temperature range) provided by three Portuguese meteorological stations. The temperature records as well as aerosol parameters are analysed for period 1980-2005. In this study we have been compared the satellites series of aerosol contents in the region in attempt to establish their relations and understand the role of aerosol in the variations of Portuguese temperature.

Century-long monthly series of temperature parameters measured in the three Portuguese meteorological stations from 1888 to 2001 were used to study the effect of different climatic forcings. Four types of forcings have been studied: volcanic aerosols, anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols, atmospheric circulation, and solar and geomagnetic activity variations. Long-term trends of temperature as well as forcings parameters with characteristic periods of decades have been studied by the different statistical methods including correlation and multiple regression, seasonal-trend decomposition and wavelet (including wavelet coherency) analyses. Obtained results confirm the significances of the volcanic and anthropogenic influences as well as solar activity impact on the climate variations in Portugal. In particular, surprisingly strong 22-year cycle was observed in temperature series whereas 11-year cycle is very weak or absent. It was also observed, that the prevalence of CO2 influence over other forcings (volcanic, circulation, solar activity) has started only around 1950. Another interesting result is the apparent "dimming" of the solar influence during periods of strong volcanic eruptions.

The Coimbra Magnetic Observatory (COI) (Portugal) has a long history of observation of the geomagnetic field, spanning almost 150 years. Measurements of the geomagnetic field components started in 1866 and include the observations of all components: horizontal (H), downward vertical (Z), northward (X), eastward (Y), total field magnitude (F), inclination (I) and declination (D). These long instrumental geomagnetic records provide very important information about variability of measured parameters, their trends and cycles, and can be used to improve our knowledge on the sources that drive variations of the geomagnetic field: liquid core dynamics (internal) and solar forcing (external). However, during the long life of the Coimbra observatory, some inevitable changes in station location, instrument's park and electromagnetic environment took place. These changes affected the quality of the data causing breaks and jumps in the series. Clearly, these inhomogeneities, typically of shift-like (step-like) or trend-like, have to be corrected or, at least, minimized in order for the data to be used in scientific studies or to be submitted to international databases. The homogenization of the monthly and annual averages of geomagnetic field components has been done using visual and statistical tests (e.g. standard normal homogeneity test), allowing to estimate not only the level of inhomogeneity of the studied series, but also to detect the highly probable homogeneity break points. These have been compared with the metadata, reference series from the nearest geomagnetic stations and geomagnetic field models (e.g. CM4 and CHAOS3) in order to find and to set up the indispensable correction factors. Similar methods have been applied to the homogenization of the local geomagnetic K-index series (from 1952 to 2012). As a result, the homogenized geomagnetic monthly and annual averages of the series measured in COI are considered to be essentially free of artificial shifts and ready to be used by the scientific community.

Time-dependent geomagnetic field models fitting observatory measurements and recent satellite observations can be inverted to provide a view of the Earth's core flow on timescales smaller than about two centuries. The Quasi-Geostrophic assumption for the flows used in the inversion, inspired on the dynamics of rapid rotating fluids in spherical containers, has been gaining support during the past few years. In this work, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used to extract the main modes characterizing the spatial (empirical orthogonal functions - EOF) and temporal (PC) variations of QG flows. For certain classes of stochastically forced mechanical systems, the computed EOFs match the mechanical free modes of the system and have a prompt physical interpretation. The statistical significance of QG-flow modes and the corresponding eigenvalues is tested using Monte-Carlo methods. The standard procedure for calculating the EOF's stability in this case consists in a temporal subsampling of the original series, randomizing of the subsample (using e.g. bootstrapping procedure), calculating the subsample EOFs and comparing the subsample EOFs with EOFs of the whole original series. The comparison is conducted by calculation of congruence coefficients. This procedure is repeated a significant number of times to ensure the statistical significance of the resulting congruence coefficients. The same bootstrapping procedure can be also used to calculate the statistical significance of the eigenvalues, representing the amount of variability of the inverted QF-flows explained by each specific mode. Inverted QG-flows can be prolongated inside the Earth's core. A proper spatial and temporal description of the most robust flow features on long timescales can be crucial if we want to assess the ability of QG columns to sustain the geodynamo.

Monthly series of temperature parameters measured in the three Portuguese meteorological stations of Lisbon, Coimbra and Porto over more than 100 years were used to recognize the imprints of different forcings in West-Iberia climate. We focused our attention on four types of forcings: volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic greenhouse gases, global atmospheric circulation, and solar and geomagnetic activity variations. Only long-term trends with characteristic periods of decades have been studied. Obtained results confirm the influence of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases, volcanic eruptions as well as solar and geomagnetic activity variations on the climate changes in this region. In particular, the prevalence of CO2 influence over other forcings (solar activity, circulation) has started only around 1950. It is also shown how the character of the response depends on the type of studied temperature parameter, on the time period and on the season. Introduction There are many natural and anthropogenic factors (forcings) that affect climate. The anthropogenic influence is presently being extensively studied. However, natural variations (e.g. due to solar and geomagnetic activity-SA and GA, respectively) of the atmospheric composition including optically active gases and aerosols and their impact on climate still have to be studied thoroughly.

Three long-term temperature data series measured in Portugal were studied to detect and correct non-climatic homogeneity breaks and are now available for future studies of climate variability. Series of monthly minimum ( T _min) and maximum ( T _max) temperatures measured in the three Portuguese meteorological stations of Lisbon (from 1856 to 2008), Coimbra (from 1865 to 2005) and Porto (from 1888 to 2001) were studied to detect and correct non-climatic homogeneity breaks. These series together with monthly series of average temperature ( T _aver) and temperature range (DTR) derived from them were tested in order to detect homogeneity breaks, using, firstly, metadata, secondly, a visual analysis and, thirdly, four widely used homogeneity tests: von Neumann ratio test, Buishand test, standard normal homogeneity test and Pettitt test. The homogeneity tests were used in absolute (using temperature series themselves) and relative (using sea-surface temperature anomalies series obtained from HadISST2 close to the Portuguese coast or already corrected temperature series as reference series) modes. We considered the T _min, T _max and DTR series as most informative for the detection of homogeneity breaks due to the fact that T _min and T _max could respond differently to changes in position of a thermometer or other changes in the instrument's environment; T _aver series have been used, mainly, as control. The homogeneity tests show strong inhomogeneity of the original data series, which could have both internal climatic and non-climatic origins. Homogeneity breaks which have been identified by the last three mentioned homogeneity tests were compared with available metadata containing data, such as instrument changes, changes in station location and environment, observing procedures, etc. Significant homogeneity breaks (significance 95% or more) that coincide with known dates of instrumental changes have been corrected using standard procedures. It was also noted that some significant homogeneity breaks, which could not be connected to the known dates of any changes in the park of instruments or stations location and environment, could be caused by large volcanic eruptions. The corrected series were again tested for homogeneity: the corrected series were considered free of non-climatic breaks when the tests of most of monthly series showed no significant (significance 95% or more) homogeneity breaks that coincide with dates of known instrument changes. Corrected series are now available in the frame of ERA-CLIM FP7 project for future studies of climate variability ( http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.785377 ).

The aim of this study is to recognize the imprints of different forcings in portuguese climate variations using a better-quality temperature time series. Obtained results confirm the influence of the volcanic eruptions as well as solar and geomagnetic activities variations on the climate changes in this Iberian region. It is also shown how the character of the response depends on the type of studied temperature parameter, on the time period and on the season. Series of monthly minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperatures measured in the three meteorological stations of Lisbon, Coimbra and Porto over more than 100 years were treated. Non-climatic breaks were identified and the series were homogenized. These series, together with monthly series of mean temperature (meanT) and temperature range (DTR) derived from them, were subjected to Principal Component Analysis to extract the leading principal components. The first principal component (PC1) accounts for as much of the variability in the original data as possible. In our case the PC1 series for Tmin, Tmax, meanT and DTR accounts for 78.8-96.1% of the variability depending on different temperature parameters and months. The PC1s were used to study the effect of different forcings on variations of the portuguese climate during the period from 1888 to 2001. We focused our attention on four types of forcings: volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic greenhouse gases, global atmospheric circulation and solar and geomagnetic activity variations. To parameterize these forcings we used the following data: different ice core data sets which give us the information about volcanic activity and greenhouse gases variability; NAO index as the longest available data set to describe the atmospheric circulation in the studied region; sunspot number, cosmic ray flux and aa-index series to describe the variability of solar and geomagnetic activities. Different statistical tests as correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis and superposed epoch analysis were used to identify the response of the temperature parameters to the forcings. The advantage of the new temperature series in use is their length. It allows to study separately the climatic variations during two periods of large volcanic eruptions (from 1888 to 1912 and from 1963 to 2001) and during a period of small eruptions (from 1912 to 1962). The analysis we made shows, in particular, that during the large eruptions periods Tmin, Tmax and meanT have often lower values and correlate better with atmospheric aerosol concentration than with solar and geomagnetic parameters. However, the variations of DTR are ambiguous and need additional investigation. Also, the length of the temperature series allows us to compare the significance of different forcings during pre-industrial and industrial periods.

Three long-term temperature data series measured in Portugal were studied to detect and correct non-climatic homogeneity breaks and are now available for future studies of climate variability. Series of monthly minimum ( T _min) and maximum ( T _max) temperatures measured in the three Portuguese meteorological stations of Lisbon (from 1856 to 2008), Coimbra (from 1865 to 2005) and Porto (from 1888 to 2001) were studied to detect and correct non-climatic breaks. These series, together with monthly series of average temperature ( T _aver) and temperature range (DTR) derived from them, were tested in order to detect breaks, using firstly metadata, secondly a visual analysis, and thirdly four widely used homogeneity tests: von Neumann ratio test, Buishand test, standard normal homogeneity test, and Pettitt test. The homogeneity tests were used in absolute (using temperature series themselves) and relative (using sea-surface temperature anomalies series obtained from HadISST2.0.0.0 close to the Portuguese coast or already corrected temperature series as reference series) modes. We considered the T _min, T _max and DTR series as most informative for the detection of breaks due to the fact that T _min and T _max could respond differently to changes in position of a thermometer or other changes in the instrument's environment; T _aver series have been used mainly as control. The homogeneity tests showed strong inhomogeneity of the original data series, which could have both internal climatic and non-climatic origins. Breaks that were identified by the last three mentioned homogeneity tests were compared with available metadata containing data such as instrument changes, changes in station location and environment, observation procedures, etc. Significant breaks (significance 95% or more) that coincided with known dates of instrumental changes were corrected using standard procedures. It was also noted that some significant breaks, which could not be connected to known dates of any changes in the park of instruments or stations location and environment, were probably caused by large volcanic eruptions. The corrected series were again tested for homogeneity; the corrected series were considered free of non-climatic breaks when the tests of most of monthly series showed no significant (significance 95% or more) breaks that coincide with dates of known instrument changes. Corrected series are now available within the framework of ERA-CLIM FP7 project for future studies of climate variability ( doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.785377 ).

Lisbon (38º43'N, 9º09'W, altitude 77 m) Homogeneity breaks detected by HT and metadata: Original and corrected series of annual Tmin, Tmax and DTR and HT statistics for DTR. Solid and dashed horizontal(annual values) lines-99% and 95% probability. Gray lines-dates of instrumental changes. Cyan lines-volcanic eruptions. years character of changes Correct. 1937 height change (+ 0.7 m) no 1941 height change (-22.2 m) yes 1977 observation periodicity no 1979 relocation no years character of changes Correct. 1864 new building (~1 km) yes 1918 height change (+ 4.1 m) no 1920 height change (-4.1 m) no 1929 height change (+ 4.1 m) no Coimbra (40º12'N, 8º25' W, altitude 141 m) Homogeneity breaks detected by HT and metadata: Original and corrected series of annual Tmin, Tmax and DTR and HT statistics for DTR. Solid and dashed horizontal(annual values) lines-99% and 95% probability. Gray lines-dates of instrumental changes. Cyan lines-volcanic eruptions. years character of changes Correct. 1922 relocation, standard shelter yes 1933 relocation yes 1950 height change (0.3 m) no Inhomogeneities detection and correction scheme: Porto (41º08'N, 8º36' W, altitude 93 m) Homogeneity breaks detected by HT and metadata: Original and corrected series of annual Tmin, Tmax and DTR and HT statistics for DTR. Solid and dashed horizontal(annual values) lines-99% and 95% probability. Gray lines-dates of instrumental changes. Cyan lines-volcanic eruptions.

We present the analysis of temperature variations in Portugal for 140 years (from 1865 to 2005). The two stations with the longest time series of temperature measurements (Lisbon and Coimbra) have been used to study the dependence of the portuguese climate variations on the changes of both global circulation and solar activity. Monthly averaged temperature series have been analyzed together with monthly North-Atlantic Oscillation index data, sunspot numbers and cosmic ray flux intensity. Different statistical methods (the correlation analysis and the multiple regression analysis) were used. Our results show that the temperature in Portugal depends not only on the atmospheric variations in the studied region but also on the variations of the solar parameters such as sunspot numbers and the cosmic rays flux intensity. Also, the dependence of temperature on solar parameters is strong during the cold season (November to February), while much weaker during the warm season. For some months, strong correlations between the temperature variations of the current month and the North-Atlantic Oscillation index values of the previous month have been found. The correlation between climatic and solar parameters shows up best on the decadal and decadal-to-centennial timescale. It is found that the temperature correlates positively with the sunspot numbers and negatively with the CR flux intensity throughout the year. Besides, the absolute values of the correlation coefficients between the temperature and the CR are higher than those between the temperature and the sunspot numbers. Our results are consistent with some of the proposed mechanisms that relate solar activity to Earth climate and could be explained through the effect of the solar UV radiation and stratosphere-troposphere coupling or/and through the effect of the CR particles on clouds and stratospheric and tropospheric conditions. Comment: 27 pages, 8 figures, 4 tables. submitted to JASTP

Variations of atmospheric pressure during solar proton events (SPE) and Forbush decreases of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity for 223 former USSR (surface pressure) and 10 North-Atlantic (Greenland, Denmark, Iceland, Faeroes, and Jan Mayen – height pressure profiles from balloon measurements) meteorological stations are studied. These stations are divided into a number of latitudinal and synoptic zones. Analysis of the experimental data has shown significant variations in tropospheric pressure caused by the SPEs or Forbush decreases, and the character of the atmosphere's parameter variations caused by the SPEs or Forbush decreases depends on the station's geographical setting and climatic zone. Also, it has been found that patterns of pressure disturbances move latitudinally during SPEs and longitudinally during Forbush decreases. These facts confirm previous results of predominant directions of atmosphere circulation during SPEs or Forbush decreases.

Для водосборных территорий характерны большие площади с разнородной приточностью, геологическая неоднородность, геоморфологическое разнообразие, геодинамическая неустойчивость. Местоположение ГЭС (каскадов ГЭС) на водосборной территории определяет не только водно-энергетические режимы эксплуатации, но и геоэкологические особенности изменений вышележащей территорий и водосбора в целом. В первую очередь следует назвать геофизические, геохимические и геобиологические последствия, обусловленные периодом строительства и начальной эксплуатации ГЭС. Эксплуатация ГЭС с точки зрения геоэкологической оценки носит явно выраженный стохастический характер. При этом имеет место обусловленная детерминированность во времени (смена времен года, теплого и холодного периодов, периодов осеннего и весеннего паводков, летней и зимней межени). Проведение геоэкологического мониторинга водосборной территории с ГЭО обусловлено повышенной активностью антропогенного и техногенного характера. Данная активность носит планетарный характер перераспределения воздействий и нагрузок на геосферном уровне, что характеризует изменение энергетического баланса. Принимая во внимание то, что при проведении геоэкологического мониторинга водосборной территории с ГЭС необходимо обращать особое внимание и на климатический режим рассматриваемого региона, следует подчеркнуть важность изучения вариаций климатических условий на этой территории и причин, их вызывающих. Как известно, особую роль в формировании климата того или иного региона играет система циркуляции воздушных масс. Изменение характера циркуляции, смещение путей циклонов, интенсификация или ослабление антициклонов приводит к вариациям средней температуры воздуха, степени увлажненности региона, уровня рек и озер. На основании предыдущих исследований можно сделать вывод о том, что периодически происходит смещение путей атлантических циклонов, проходящих по европейской части территории России. Такие изменения траекторий движения воздушных масс, насыщенных влагой, приводят, в частности, к изменению количества осадков в бассейнах европейских и центрально-азиатских рек, а затем – к изменению уровня озер, питаемых этими реками: Каспия, Балхаша и Арала. Имеющиеся на сегодняшний момент данные свидетельствуют о том, что одной из существенных причин подобных изменений атмосферной циркуляции может быть изменение уровня солнечной активности (как 11-летние, так и более продолжительные т.н. вековые циклы). Оценка зависимости климатических условий данного региона (температуры, увлажненности и пр.) от уровня солнечной активности может оказаться весьма полезной при долгосрочных прогнозах развития водосборных территорий ГЭС. В данной работе сделана первая попытка оценить отклик водности карельских рек Кемь и Чирко-Кемь на изменение уровня солнечной активности – вариации чисел Вольфа (числа солнечных пятен).

The earthquakes of various magnitudes (M ≥ 7.0, 4.0 ≤ M < 7.0) for the period from 1977 to 1998 are considered. A different recurrence of the number of strong and weak earthquakes is revealed. Variations of sunspot numbers, flare index, galactic cosmic ray fluxes, and Kp-index of geomagnetic activity are studied. From comparison of these characteristics with the distribution of the number of the earthquakes it may be assumed that the distinction in the characters of variations of weak and strong earthquakes is caused by the distinction in the solar and geomagnetic activity effect on occurrence of earthquakes of different magnitude.

Variations of the air pressure, cosmic ray fluxes, sunspot numbers, and interplanetary magnetic field in connection with strong earthquake occurrences are studied. The results of this investigation permits one to consider the variations of the cosmic rays as one of the possible cause of air pressure variations and one of the possible earthquake precursors.

An analysis of variations in the meteorological parameters (temperature, precipitation amount, and atmospheric pressure) in Central Europe (Switzerland) from 1700 to 1989 is presented as a function of the change in the total level of solar activity. A correlation between the secular climate variations and solar activity has been established, and the value and sign of the correlation coefficients are found to be dependent on the phase of secular cycles (branches of decline and growth of solar activity) and changes of one cycle into another.

The character of the variations in the seasonal temperature and humidity indices and atmospheric pressure in Switzerland in the course of the 11-year solar-activity cycle from 1700 through 1989 is analyzed. A relation is shown to exist between the variations in the climatic indices and solar-activity level. The most interesting result is found to be the reversal of the sign of this relation at the boundary between the 19th and 20th centuries, which is especially conspicuous in the variations of winter and spring climatic parameters.

A decrease of the direct solar radiation at the Earth's surface and associated variations of the altitudinal temperature profile observed during Solar Proton Events (SPE) (e.g. Pudovkin et al., 1995; Pudovkin and Veretenenko, 1996) are believed to be caused by the appearance of a layer which partially reflects solar radiation (by up to 10%). This layer could be associated with the cirrus cloud that is possible be initiated by Solar Cosmic Rays (SCR) particles, as is reported by Tinsley and Deen (1991). The variations of the temperature profile (|∆T| ≤ 2-3 K at h < 10 km) in the high latitude atmosphere (Sodankylä, Finland, ϕ = 67 N) during the SPE may produce a time variation of the meridional pressure profile, which in turn might cause a change of the zonal circulation in the middle and high latitude atmosphere. The calculated variations of the vertical temperature profile change, discussed with a simple model in the papers by Pudovkin and Morozova in JASTP 1997 and 1998, are in a good agreement with experimental data. To expand this study at the DMI the one-dimensional radiative-convective model OGI

The character of variations in the seasonal temperature and humidity indices in the course of the 22-year solar activity cycle during the 18-20th centuries in Switzerland is studied. It is shown that the variations of the climatic indices are correlated with the solar activity level. It is noted that the sign (degree) of this correlation changes at the turn of the 19th and of the 20th century, which is manifested especially clearly in the variations of the climatic parameters for the fall-winter seasons. The character of the variations in the temperature and precipitation indices for summer periods changes sharply at the turn of the 20th century.

An attempt is made to compare the dynamic parameters of the Sun's motion and the level of solar activity. Variations in the dynamic parameters of the motion of the Sun relative to the barycenter of the Solar System during 1100-2045 are studied in comparison with variations in solar activity and in the climate of the Earth. The periods of "anomalous" behavior of the parameters describing these three processes are found to coincide.

A decrease of the direct solar radiation at the Earths surface and associated variations of the altitudinal temperature profile observed during Solar Proton Events (SPE) discussed by Pudovkin and Babushkina, 1992b, Pudovkin and Veretenenko, 1994 are believed to be caused by the appearance of a layer which partially reflects solar radiation (by up to 10%) at an altitude of about 9 km. This layer is associated with the cirrus cloud that can be nucleated by Solar Cosmic Ray (SCR) particles (see Tinsley and Deen, 1991; Tinsley and Heelis, 1993). The calculated variations of the altitudinal profile of the air temperature in the high latitude atmosphere (Sodankyla, Finland, φ ≈ 67° N) after the SPE, caused by the appearance of this layer, are in good agreement with experimental data.The variations of the temperature profile (|ΔT| ⩽ 2–3 K at z < 10 km) in the high latitude atmosphere during the SPE may produce a time variation of the meridional pressure profile, which in turn might cause a change of the zonal circulation. The expected changes of pressure at the Earths surface, the heights of constant pressure levels and the zonal circulation are shown to be similar to those observed, but which are smaller in magnitude. These quantitative differences can be associated with the oversimplification of the atmospheric model that we used.

Time variations of the temperature height profile in the lower atmosphere in the subauroral zone during Solar Proton Events (SPE) are calculated. The SPE situation is modelled by introducing a reflecting solar radiation layer at the upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric level. The characteristic time of the temperature variations is calculated.A comparison of model calculation results with experimental data on the temperature profile shows that the gross features of the observed variations of that profile may be reasonably explained by the model under consideration.

A number og japanese earthquakes was studied in connection with evolution of such parameters as crustal deformations, athmosphere pressure gradient variations and cos- mic parameter variations. Some previous results allow us to suppose a sufficiently close connection between degree of crustal deformations and a possibility of solar activity variation's influence (trigger effect) on initiation of earthquakes.