Anja Rammig

Technische Universität München | TUM · Department of Ecology and Ecosystem Management

The impacts of reduced precipitation on plant functional diversity and how its components (richness, evenness, divergence and composition) modulate the Amazon carbon balance remain elusive. We present a novel trait-based approach, the CArbon and Ecosystem functional-Trait Evaluation (CAETÊ) model to investigate the role of plant trait diversity in...

The terrestrial water cycle links the soil and atmosphere moisture reservoirs through four fluxes: precipitation, evaporation, runoff, and atmospheric moisture convergence (net import of water vapor to balance runoff). Each of these processes is essential for sustaining human and ecosystem well‐being. Predicting how the water cycle responds to chan...

Along with the accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the loss of primary forests and other natural ecosystems is a major disruption of the Earth system causing global concern. Quantifying planetary warming from carbon emissions, global climate models highlight natural forests' high carbon storage potential supporting conservation policies. Ho...

Understanding tree-response to extreme drought events is imperative for maintaining forest ecosystem services under climate change. While tree-ring derived secondary growth measurements are often used to estimate direct and lagging drought impacts, so-called drought legacies, underlying physiological responses remain difficult to constrain across s...

he climate in the Amazon region is particularly sensitive to surface processes and properties such as heat fluxes and vegetation coverage. Rainfall is a key expression of the land surface–atmosphere interactions in the region due to its strong dependence on forest transpiration. While a large number of past studies have shown the impacts of large-s...

Colombia is highly vulnerable to climate change which may be intensified due to the climatic effects of regional deforestation. Here, we quantify the impact of historical (1900–2011) land cover changes (LCC) and of global warming during ENSO events (CC) on precipitation, temperature and surface energy balance components by running the Weather Resea...

Historically, humans have cleared many forests for agriculture. While this substantially reduced ecosystem carbon storage, the impacts of these land cover changes on terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) have not been adequately resolved yet. Here, we combine high-resolution datasets of satellite-derived GPP and environmental predictor varia...

Elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2 ) influences the carbon assimilation rate and stomatal conductance of plants, thereby affecting the global cycles of carbon and water. Yet, the detection of these physiological effects of eCO2 in observational data remains challenging, because natural variations and confounding factors (e.g., warming) can overshadow t...

Forests mitigate climate change by storing carbon and reducing emissions via substitution effects of wood products. Additionally, they provide many other important ecosystem services (ESs), but are vulnerable to climate change; therefore, adaptation is necessary. Climate-smart forestry combines mitigation with adaptation, whilst facilitating the pr...

Understanding uncertainties and sensitivities of projected ecosystem dynamics under environmental change is of immense value for research and climate change policy. Here, we analyze sensitivities (change in model outputs per unit change in inputs) and uncertainties (changes in model outputs scaled to uncertainty in inputs) of vegetation dynamics un...

Inter-annual climate variability (hereafter climate variability) is increasing in many forested regions due to climate change. This variability could have larger near-term impacts on forests than decadal shifts in mean climate, but how forests will respond remains poorly resolved, particularly at broad scales. Individual trees, and even forest comm...

Over the last decades, the Amazon rainforest has been hit by multiple severe drought events. Here, we assess the severity and spatial extent of the extreme drought years 2005, 2010 and 2015/16 in the Amazon region and their impacts on the regional carbon cycle. As an indicator of drought stress in the Amazon rainforest, we use the widely applied ma...

The terrestrial water cycle links the soil and atmosphere moisture reservoirs through four fluxes: precipitation, evaporation, runoff, and atmospheric moisture convergence (net import of water vapor to balance runoff). Each of these processes is essential for human and ecosystem well-being. Predicting how the water cycle responds to changes in vege...

Detecting pointer years in tree-ring data is a central aspect of dendroecology. Pointer years are usually represented by extraordinary secondary tree growth, which is often interpreted as a response to abnormal environmental conditions such as late-frosts or droughts. Objectively identifying pointer years in larger tree-ring networks and relating t...

Recent publications indicate that the Amazon may be acting more as a carbon source than a sink in some regions. Moreover, the Amazon is a source of moisture for other regions in the continent, and deforestation over the years may be reducing this function. In this work, we analyze the impacts of elevated CO2 (eCO2) and land use change (LUC) on gros...

Elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2) influences the carbon assimilation rate and stomatal conductance of plants, and thereby can affect the global cycles of carbon and water. However, the extent to which these physiological effects of eCO2 influence the land-atmosphere exchange of carbon and water is uncertain. In this study, we aim at developing a meth...

Current modelling approaches to predict spatially explicit biodiversity responses to climate change mainly focus on the direct effects of climate on species. Integration of spatiotemporal land-cover scenarios is still limited. Current approaches either regard land cover as constant boundary conditions, or rely on general, typically globally defined...

In the tropical rainforest of Amazonia, phosphorus (P) is one of the main nutrients controlling forest dynamics, but its effects on the future of the forest biomass carbon (C) storage under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations remain uncertain. Soils in vast areas of Amazonia are P-impoverished, and little is known about the variation or plastic...

Much uncertainty remains in measuring the inter‐annual and longer‐term dynamics of vegetation gross and net primary productivity (GPP, NPP) and the connected land carbon sink. Potential for better GPP estimation lies in newer satellite products representing different processes or vegetation states, but how they capture interannual GPP dynamics rema...

Purpose Large parts of the Amazon rainforest grow on weathered soils depleted in phosphorus and rock-derived cations. We tested the hypothesis that in this ecosystem, fine roots stimulate decomposition and nutrient release from leaf litter biochemically by releasing enzymes, and by exuding labile carbon stimulating microbial decomposers. Methods W...

Forest decline, in course of climate change, has become a frequently observed phenomenon. Much of the observed decline has been associated with an increasing frequency of climate change induced hotter droughts while decline induced by flooding, late-frost, and storms also play an important role. As a consequence, tree mortality rates have increased...

Fire is widely used by farmers in Brazil during the winter, or the dry season, to remove accumulated dead pasture biomass. These practices have substantial impacts on vegetation, soil nutrients and carbon emissions. However, they are rarely represented within process-based fire models embedded within Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVM). We deve...

Global forests are the main component of the land carbon sink, which acts as a partial buffer to CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. Dynamic vegetation models offer an approach to projecting the development of forest carbon sink capacity in a future climate. Forest management capabilities are important to include in dynamic vegetation models to acco...

Understanding uncertainties and sensitivities of projected ecosystem dynamics under environmental change is of immense value for research and climate change policy. Here, we analyze sensitivities (change in model outputs per unit change in inputs) and uncertainties (changes in model outputs scaled to uncertainty in inputs) of vegetation dynamics un...

Southeastern South America is subject to considerable precipitation variability on seasonal to decadal timescales and has undergone very heavy land‐cover changes since the middle of the past century. The influence of local land‐cover change and precipitation as drivers of regional evapotranspiration long‐term trends and variability remains largely...

Observational data from long-term monitoring plots show that the carbon sink of remaining, undisturbed African and Amazonian tropical rainforest is declining. A study now finds that simulations from Earth system models cannot reproduce this decline.

Most leaf functional trait studies in the Amazon basin do not consider ontogenetic variations (leaf age), which may influence ecosystem productivity throughout the year. When leaf age is taken into account, it is generally considered discontinuous, and leaves are classified into age categories based on qualitative observations. Here, we quantified...

Changing forest disturbance regimes pose a major challenge for current day forestry. Yet our understanding of the economic impacts of disturbances remains incomplete. Existing valuations of losses from natural disturbances commonly exclude extreme events and neglect impacts on standing timber. Here we develop a new methodology to assess the economi...

1. Understanding the processes that shape forest functioning, structure, and diversity remains challenging, although data on forest systems are being collected at a rapid pace and across scales. Forest models have a long history in bridging data with ecological knowledge and can simulate forest dynamics over spatio-temporal scales unreachable by mo...

Global forests are the main component of the land carbon sink, which acts as a partial buffer to CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. Dynamic vegetation models offer an approach to making projections of the development of forest carbon sink capacity in a future climate. Forest management capabilities in dynamic vegetation models are important to incl...

Southeastern South America is subject to considerable precipitation variability on seasonal to decadal timescales and has undergone very heavy land-cover changes (LCCs) since the middle of the past century. The influence of local LCC and precipitation as drivers of regional evapotranspiration (ET) long-term trends and variability remains largely un...

Pulses of tree mortality caused by drought have been reported recently in forests around the globe, but large-scale quantitative evidence is lacking for Europe. Analyzing high-resolution annual satellite-based canopy mortality maps from 1987 to 2016 we here show that excess forest mortality (i.e., canopy mortality exceeding the long-term mortality...

Over the last decades, the Amazon rainforest was hit by multiple severe drought events. Here we assess the severity and spatial extent of the extreme drought years 2005, 2010, and 2015/2016 in the Amazon region and their impacts on the carbon cycle. As an indicator of drought stress in the Amazon rainforest, we use the widely applied maximum cumula...

Climate in the Amazon region is particularly sensitive to surface processes and properties such as heat fluxes and vegetation coverage. Rainfall is a key expression of land surface-atmosphere interactions in the region due to its strong dependence on forest transpiration. While a large number of past studies have shown the impacts of large-scale de...

The expected increase in drought severity and frequency as a result of anthropogenic climate change leads to concerns about the ability of native tree species to cope with these changes. To determine the susceptibility of Fagus sylvatica (European beech) and Quercus robur (pedunculate oak) – the two dominant deciduous tree species in Central Europe...

The European heatwave of 2018 led to record-breaking temperatures and extremely dry conditions in many parts of the continent, resulting in widespread decrease in agricultural yield, early tree-leaf senescence, and increase in forest fires in Northern Europe. Our study aims to capture the impact of the 2018 European heatwave on the terrestrial ecos...

The European heatwave of 2018 led to record-breaking temperatures and extremely dry conditions in many parts of the continent resulting in widespread decrease in agricultural yield, early tree-leaf senescence, and increase in forest fires in Northern Europe. Our study aims to capture the impact of the 2018 European heatwave on terrestrial ecosystem...

The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle, with both recent historical baselines and future responses to environmental change poorly constrained by available observations. In the absence of large-scale observations, models used for global assessments tend to fall back on...

In the context of extreme event ecology, identification of pointer years has become a central aspect of tree-ring research. However, the variety of methods employed for pointer year detection since the introduction of the concept in 1979 impedes a direct comparison among studies. Moreover, most commonly used methods partly rely on arbitrarily selec...

Land‐based solutions are indispensable features of most climate mitigation scenarios. Here we conduct a novel cross‐sectoral assessment of regional carbon mitigation potential by running an ecosystem model with an explicit representation of forest structure and climate impacts for Bavaria, Germany, as a case study. We drive the model with four high...

Amazonian ecosystems are major biodiversity hotspots and carbon sinks that may lose species to extinction and become carbon sources due to extreme dry or warm conditions. We investigated the seasonal patterns of high-resolution solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) measured by the satellite Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) across the Am...

Vegetation responds to drought through a complex interplay of plant hydraulic mechanisms, posing challenges for model development and parameterization. We present a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of leaf water-potential over time while considering different strategies by which plant species regulate their water-potentials. The model...

In 2018, Central Europe experienced one of the most severe and long-lasting summer drought and heat wave ever recorded. Before 2018, the 2003 millennial drought was often invoked as the example of a “hotter drought”, and was classified as the most severe event in Europe for the last 500 years. First insights now confirm that the 2018 drought event...

In recent decades, an increasing persistence of atmospheric circulation patterns has been observed. In the course of the associated long-lasting anticyclonic summer circulations, heatwaves and drought spells often coincide, leading to so-called hotter droughts. Previous hotter droughts caused a decrease in agricultural yields and an increase in tre...

Tropical rainforests harbor exceptionally high biodiversity and store large amounts of carbon in vegetation biomass. However, regional variation in plant species richness and vegetation carbon stock can be substantial, and may be related to the heterogeneity of topoedaphic properties. Therefore, aboveground vegetation carbon storage typically diffe...

A survey of tree establishment, growth and mortality shows that the rate at which Amazonian tropical forests take up carbon dioxide has slowed since the 1990s, whereas signs of a potential slowdown in Africa appeared only in 2010. Estimates of carbon-sink saturation in Amazonia and Africa.

Climate variables carry signatures of variability at multiple timescales. How these modes of variability are reflected in the state of the terrestrial biosphere is still not quantified or discussed at the global scale. Here, we set out to gain a global understanding of the relevance of different modes of variability in vegetation greenness and its...

Abstract. The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle, with both recent-historical baselines and future responses to environmental change poorly constrained by available observations. In the absence of large-scale observations, models tend to fall back on simplified assumpt...

Plain Language Summary Ecosystems and society are closely coupled and are both affected by climate change. Climate extremes are expected to occur more often and/or get more intense under climate change. We ask the following question: How can ecosystems and society, which can be described as so‐called social‐ecological systems, withstand climate ext...

Conversion of tropical forests is among the primary causes of global environmental change. The loss of their important environmental services has prompted calls to integrate ecosystem services (ES) in addition to socioeconomic objectives in decision-making. To test the effect of accounting for both ES and socioeconomic objectives in land-use decisi...

In their response to critical comments on their study, Bastin et al. (2019) claim that their numbers are correct and provide an updated description of the carbon uptake calculation. However, it remains unclear whether the authors describe the original calculation or a completely new one. In addition, the authors calculate their best estimate (205 G...

We believe the carbon removal potential of 205 Gt C reported by Bastin et al. (2019) to be overestimated. The authors did not consider the carbon already stored on the land with identified tree restoration potential. For instance, grasslands and degraded forests have similar soil carbon stocks as old-growth forests. Accounting for these inconsisten...

Climate variables carry signatures of variability at multiple time scales. How these modes of variability are reflected in the state of the terrestrial biosphere is still not quantified, nor discussed at the global scale. Here, we set out to gain a global understanding of the relevance of different modes of variability in vegetation greenness and i...

Global terrestrial models currently predict that the Amazon rainforest will continue to act as a carbon sink in the future, primarily owing to the rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. Soil phosphorus impoverishment in parts of the Amazon basin largely controls its functioning, but the role of phosphorus availability has not been c...

Defining and quantifying drought is essential when studying ecosystem responses to such events. Yet, many studies lack either a clear definition of drought, and/or erroneously assume drought under conditions within the range of “normal climatic variability” (c.f. Slette et al., 2019). To improve the general characterization of drought conditions in...

In recent decades, an increasing persistence of atmospheric circulation patterns has been observed. In the course of the associated long-lasting anticyclonic summer circulations, heat waves and drought spells often coincide, leading to so-called hotter droughts. Previous hotter droughts caused a decrease in agricultural yields and increase in tree...