Ángel G Muñoz

Ángel G Muñoz
Columbia University | CU · International Research Institute for Climate and Society - Earth Institute

PhD, Earth and Environmental Sciences

About

138
Publications
41,234
Reads
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1,065
Citations
Introduction
I'm an Associate Research Scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) -part of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. I do research on subseasonal-to-decadal prediction, cross-timescale interference of climate modes, and how these topics can be used in model diagnostics, lightning and prediction of climate extremes. I also work on the development of climate services, and lead the Latin American component of the Columbia World Project "ACToday".
Additional affiliations
January 2018 - present
Columbia University
Position
  • Research Associate
February 2016 - January 2018
Princeton University
Position
  • PostDoc Position
September 2012 - June 2014
Columbia University
Position
  • Teaching Assistant: Regional Climate and Dynamics of Climate
Education
September 2013 - September 2014
Columbia University
Field of study
  • Earth and Environmental Sciences
September 2011 - December 2015
Columbia University
Field of study
  • Earth and Environmental Sciences
September 2011 - September 2013
Columbia University
Field of study
  • Earth and Environmental Sciences

Publications

Publications (138)
Article
Full-text available
Aedes-borne diseases, such as dengue and chikungunya, are responsible for more than 50 million infections worldwide every year, with an overall increase of 30-fold in the last 50 years, mainly due to city population growth, more frequent travels and ecological changes. In the United States of America, the vast majority of Aedes-borne infections are...
Article
Full-text available
The variability of La Guajira upwelling system, in the south-central Caribbean Sea, is strongly influenced by the intensity and location of the atmospheric Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ), a near-surface branch of the easterlies, as well as by the regional ocean circulation. During favorable conditions (i.e. strong easterlies blowing almost parallel...
Chapter
Full-text available
Faced with the greatest public health crisis of our time, people must work together and learn from each other to overcome the complex challenges facing our communities, countries, and the world. Climate-related hazards are one of those challenges; they exacerbate already challenging public health conditions and impact not just people, but also the...
Article
Full-text available
We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections of twenty-first century precipitation and temperature changes. The future changes are computed for two time slices (2040–20...
Article
Full-text available
The provision of climate services has the potential to generate adaptive capacity and help coffee farmers become or remain profitable by integrating climate information in a risk-management framework. Yet, in order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to identify the local demand for climate information, the relationships between coffee yield and...
Article
Full-text available
Rainfall in the Caribbean is an important resource for numerous stakeholders in the region. Based on previous work, which identified several variables that could provide predictive skill of rainfall in the region, canonical correlation analysis is applied to assess forecast skill for station-averaged sub-regional frequency and intensity of the Earl...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Los mecanismos asociados a la precipitación en el istmo centroamericano son controlados por complejas interacciones físicas en varias escalas espacio-temporales reflejadas en la dinámica de los patrones de circulación atmosférica incidentes en la región. Sin embargo, algunos de estos mecanismos y sus relaciones con la estructura termodinámica relac...
Article
Full-text available
Knowledge of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) rainfall characteristics such as onset, duration, and demise of the rainfall cycle, and characteristics of dry periods that are between rainfall seasons, can provide important insight for the agriculture, health, disaster, and energy industries. Several methods have attempted to calculate temporal characte...
Article
Extreme weather events have devastating impacts on human health, economic activities, ecosys tems, and infrastructure. It is therefore crucial to anticipate extremes and their impacts to allow for preparedness and emergency measures. There is indeed potential for probabilistic subseasonal prediction on timescales of several weeks for many extreme e...
Article
Ten years, sixteen fully coupled global models, and hundreds of research papers later, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) monthly-to-seasonal prediction system is looking ahead to its second decade. The NMME comprises both real-time, initialized predictions and a substantial research database; both retrospective and real-time forecasts...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Up to fifteen tick-borne pathogens – including the agent of Lyme disease – continue to expand geographically in North America, invading populations that may be unaware of the risk. Process-based, mechanistic models have significantly deepened our understanding of the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis and Ambylomma americanum ticks. We have d...
Article
Full-text available
The Inter-Americas Seas (IAS), involving the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean and a section of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean bordering Central America, Colombia and Ecuador, exhibits very active ocean-land-atmosphere interactions that impact socio-economic activities within and beyond the region, and that are still not well understood or represen...
Article
Full-text available
The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive timescale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this timescale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a ‘knowledge...
Poster
Full-text available
According to the World Food Programme (WFP, April 2020), the prevalence in Guatemala of stunting in children under the age of 5 reaches 46.5% nationally, and it climbs up to 70% in some departments, with peaks as high as 90% in the hardest hit municipalities. Food insecurity in Guatemala is driven by both climate and non-climate factors, and its pa...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Recent research has highlighted the potential for improving predictive skill at the subseasonal timescale, which could be the basis for enhanced, actionable forecasts for climate services involving water and disaster management, health, energy and food security. Projects such as WMOʼs World Weather and World Climate Research Programmeʼs Subseasonal...
Conference Paper
Agriculture for food production remains a major contributor to the national economies of many developing countries. Often, these countries are characterized by agricultural landscapes that are heavily or even primarily dependent upon rainfall for crop irrigation and watering pastures for cattle. In the face of climate variability and change, decisi...
Article
Full-text available
Abstract The 2018 outbreak of dengue in the French overseas department of Réunion was unprecedented in size and spread across the island. This research focuses on the cause of the outbreak, asserting that climate played a large role in the proliferation of the Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, which transmitted the disease, and led to the dengue outbrea...
Article
Full-text available
Introduction We are witnessing an alarming increase in the burden and range of mosquito-borne arboviral diseases. The transmission dynamics of arboviral diseases is highly sensitive to climate and weather and is further affected by non-climatic factors such as human mobility, urbanization, and disease control. As evidence also suggests, climate-dri...
Article
Full-text available
The Columbia University World Project “Adapting Agriculture to Climate Today, for Tomorrow” (ACToday), led by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), was launched at the end of 2017 to create climate service solutions to help end hunger, achieve food security, improve nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture in six...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Common approaches to diagnose systematic model errors involve the computation of statistical metrics aimed at providing an overall summary of the performance of the model in reproducing the particular variables of interest in the study, normally tied to speciWc spatial and temporal scales. However, the evaluation of model performance is not always...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Aedes-borne diseases, such as dengue and chikungunya, are responsible for more than 50 million infections worldwide every year, with an overall increase of 30-fold in the last 50 years, mainly due to city population growth, more frequent travels and ecological changes. In the United States of America, the vast majority of Aedes-borne infections are...
Book
Full-text available
With the formalization of WMO Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts (GPCs-LRF) in 2006 and the Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-model Ensemble (LC-LRFMME) in 2009, the infrastructure for operational seasonal forecasts has reached a mature state. At present, 13 designated GPCs-LRF provide seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis. D...
Article
Full-text available
K-means cluster analysis of wintertime 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies allowed identifying seven weather regimes (WRs) describing the atmospheric variability over the Euro-Mediterranean domain. The study of transitions between those WRs provided consistent results with the westward displacement of the blocking nearby northern Europe before th...
Article
Full-text available
Understanding what causes weather-related stresses that lead to crop failures is a critical steptoward stabilizing global food production. While there are many sources of weather-related stresses, the30–60 days of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant source of subseasonal climate variabilityin the tropics, making it a potential—but as of...
Article
Full-text available
In the original version of the article contained errors in the fig 3 and 4 and captions of Figures 3 and 4 with respect to the panels in the top row.
Article
Full-text available
While many Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) teleconnections are well documented, the significance of these teleconnections to agriculture is not well understood. Here we analyze how the MJO affects the climate during crop flowering seasons, when crops are particularly vulnerable to abiotic stress. Because the MJO is located in the tropics of the sum...
Article
Full-text available
Though not a sufficient condition, the ability to reproduce key elements of climate variability over the historical record should be a minimum requirement for placing any confidence in a model’s climate forecasts or projections of climate change. When projections are used to guide practical adaptation, model evaluations should focus on the weather...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Aedes-borne diseases, such as dengue and chikungunya, are responsible for more than 50 million infections worldwide every year, with an overall increase of 30-fold in the last 50 years, mainly due to city population growth and more frequent travels. In the United States of America, the vast majority of Aedes-borne infections are imported from endem...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Cross-timescale interference involves linear and non-linear interactions between climate modes acting at multiple timescales (Muñoz et al., 2015, 2016, 2017; Robertson et al., 2015; Moron et al., 2015), and that are related to windows of opportunity for enhanced predictive skill (Mariotti et al., 2020), with relevant societal impacts (e.g., Doss-Go...
Article
Full-text available
Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is used to improve the skill of seasonal forecast in the Orinoquía Region, where over 40% of Colombian rice is produced. Seasonal precipitation and frequency of wet-days are predicted, as rice yields simulated by a calibrated crop-model is better correlated with wet-days frequency than with precipitation amounts...
Article
Full-text available
Producing probabilistic subseasonal forecasts of extreme events up to six weeks in advance is crucial for many economic sectors. In agribusiness, this time-scale is particularly critical because it allows for mitigation strategies to be adopted for counteracting weather hazards and taking advantage of opportunities. For example, spring frosts are d...
Article
Full-text available
This study focuses on potential impacts of climate change on the early spring (March–April) temperature and its extremes in the mid-latitudes of North America, discriminated between the 1.5 °C and 2 °C levels of global warming, as projected by a suit of numerical experiments. The results suggest relatively mild seasonal average warming (0.25 °C–1.5...
Article
Full-text available
Integrated forecasting system for maritime safety
Conference Paper
Full-text available
A través del tiempo se ha intentado entender y predecir las el clima. No obstante‚ las limitaciones intrínsecas de las predicciones climáticas‚ muestran divergencias con las condiciones reales. Lo anterior como consecuencia del crecimiento caótico de los errores de pronóstico‚ vinculado a las incertidumbres‚ en el conocimiento del estado inicial y...
Poster
On the link of the Madden Julian Oscillation, Euro-Mediterranean weather regimes and rainfall patterns in Morocco
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Successful climate services often involve the use of tailored regional climate forecasts at one or multiple timescales. The way those forecasts are implemented is not always straightforward, and depends on several different factors, like which variables, models and calibration methods to use, how to produce the ensemble and tailoring, or even how t...
Article
Full-text available
Explosive volcanic eruptions have large climate impacts, and can serve as observable tests of the climatic response to radiative forcing. Using a high resolution climate model, we contrast the climate responses to Pinatubo, with symmetric forcing, and those to Santa Maria and Agung, which had meridionally asymmetric forcing. Although Pinatubo had l...
Article
Full-text available
This study explores the impact of El Niño and La Niña events on precipitation and circulation in East Asia. The results are based on statistical analysis of various observational datasets and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s (GFDL’s) global climate model experiments. Multiple observational datasets and certain models show that in the southea...
Article
Full-text available
The Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) is an important component of the atmospheric circulation over the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) which impacts the weather and climate both locally and remotely. It influences the rainfall variability in the Caribbean, Central America, northern South America, the tropical Pacific and the continental Unites States throug...
Preprint
During the austral summer 2015/16, severe flooding displaced over 170 000 people on the Paraguay River system in Paraguay, Argentina, and southern Brazil. These floods were driven by repeated heavy rainfall events in the lower Paraguay River basin. Alternating sequences of enhanced moisture inflow from the South American low-level jet and local con...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Considering lessons learned from experiences at seasonal timescale, this talk discusses some concrete S2S applications using both calibrated and uncalibrated forecasts from the S2S Database and the SubX project. First, we illustrate how a Python interface for IRI’s Climate Predictability Tool —PyCPT— can be employed to assess skill and calibrate su...
Article
Full-text available
There exists a vast amount of interest by the academic, operational and applied communities in sub-seasonal pre- dictions in South America, as these predictions have the potential to help inform decisions in various sectors (e.g. water management, food production and tourism), partic- ularly because they bridge the gap left for several years betwee...
Poster
Full-text available
Common approaches to diagnose systematic errors involve the computation of metrics aimed at providing an overall summary of the performance of the model in reproducing the particular variables of interest in the study, normally tied to specific spatial and temporal scales. However, the evaluation of model performance is not always tied to the under...
Chapter
Chapter 4 describes the basic components of weather and climate, and a common theme throughout is that there is considerable variability in space and in time. In this chapter, we start by describing and explaining how climate varies by location, by considering the effects of altitude, latitude and other aspects of geography on the climate. We then...
Chapter
Weather and climate vary on multiple timescales (§§ 3.2 and §§ 5.3), and climate information (historical, current or future) must target the specific time and space scales of the decisions being made. Observed climate is the result of the interaction of natural climate variability and the anthropogenic climate-change signal associated with increasi...
Code
Python interface for IRI’s Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), a widely used research and application Model Output Statistics/Prediction toolbox. Publicly available: GitHub. Automatically downloads required observations (TRMM, CPC Unified) and S2S model data from the IRI Data Library (S2S Database and SubX –ECMWF, CFSv2, GEFS, others are being in...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
After successful eradication measures in the 1950s, the East African Highlands observed an unexpected resurgence of malaria in the 1990s. Although the epidemic episodes decreased again during the mid-2000s, they caused high mortality and morbidity rates in the population for over a decade. In addition to changes in herd immunity and control operati...
Article
Full-text available
Background: Climate-based disease forecasting has been proposed as a potential tool in climate change adaptation for the health sector. Here we explore the relevance of climate data, drivers and predictions for vector-borne disease control efforts in Africa. Methods: Using data from a number of sources we explore rainfall and temperature across the...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Aedes-borne diseases, such as dengue and chikungunya, are responsible for more than 50-100 million infections worldwide every year, with an overall increase of 30-fold in the last 50 years, mainly due to city population growth and more frequent travels. In the case of United States of America, the vast majority of Aedes-borne infections is imported...
Poster
Full-text available
The North and South American Monsoon Systems (NAMS and SAMS, respectively) encompass rainfall patterns produced by similar dynamical mechanisms that involve ocean-land-atmosphere processes at multiple timescales. It has even been proposed that there is a cross-equatorial link between both monsoon systems, that is part of the seasonal transition of...
Article
Full-text available
The Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model was used to develop an operational air quality forecast system for the Metropolitan Area of Lima-Callao (MALC), Peru, that is affected by high particulate matter concentrations episodes. In this work, we describe the implementation of an operational air quality-forecasting platform to...
Article
Full-text available
The Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model was used to develop an operational air quality forecast system for the Metropolitan Area of Lima-Callao (MALC), Peru, that is affected by high particulate matter concentrations episodes. In this work, we describe the implementation of an operational air quality-forecasting platform to...
Article
During the austral summer 2015/16, severe flooding displaced over 170 000 people on the Paraguay River system in Paraguay, Argentina, and southern Brazil. These floods were driven by repeated heavy rainfall events in the lower Paraguay River basin. Alternating sequences of enhanced moisture inflow from the South American low-level jet and local con...
Preprint
Full-text available
During the austral summer 2015-16, severe flooding displaced over 170 000 people on the Paraguay River system in Paraguay, Argentina, and Southern Brazil. These floods were driven by repeated heavy rainfall events in the Lower Paraguay River Basin. Alternating sequences of enhanced moisture inflow from the South American Low-Level Jet and local con...
Article
Full-text available
Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne arbovirus, is a major public health concern in Ecuador.In this study, we aimed to describe the spatial distribution of dengue risk and identify localsocial-ecological factors associated with an outbreak of dengue fever in the city of Guayaquil,Ecuador. We examined georeferenced dengue cases (n= 4248) and block-level c...