Andy Hines

Andy Hines
University of Houston | U of H, UH · Department of Human Development & Consumer Sciences, Foresight

Phd, Foresight; MS Studies of the Future

About

73
Publications
31,384
Reads
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1,320
Citations
Citations since 2016
14 Research Items
841 Citations
2016201720182019202020212022020406080100120
2016201720182019202020212022020406080100120
2016201720182019202020212022020406080100120
2016201720182019202020212022020406080100120
Introduction
My research interests include (but not limited to) -- Professionalizing foresight -- integrating foresight into organizations -- The Next Economy -- Horizon scanning & scenarios -- Values shifts -- Foresight methods, e.g., building out Framework Foresight
Additional affiliations
September 2014 - January 2016
University of Houston
Position
  • Professor (Assistant) & Program Coordinator
January 2000 - January 2005
Dow Chemical Company
Position
  • Futurist and Ideation Leader

Publications

Publications (73)
Article
The increasing complexity and uncertainty of the future may stimulate demand for more monitoring emerging issues. Futurists have long advocated for monitoring the future on an ongoing basis or for tracking the findings of project work in practice. However, clients have historically been reluctant to invest time and money in monitoring, and little p...
Article
The piece highlights the methodological contributions that Richard Slaughter has made to FS/Foresight. It organizations these contributions into four distinct roles: chronicler, critic, innovator, and champion. Richard had the remarkable ability to take up a new role as felt it was needed. His work made a significant and lasting contribution to dev...
Article
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没有人知道未来是怎样的。既然如此,企业又该如何为这个充满各种可能性的烧脑未来做好准备呢?针对此,本文提供了几种方法可以降低未知陷阱带来的风险。
Article
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Nobody knows what the future holds in store. How, then, should businesses prepare for the mind-boggling array of scenarios that might arise in the coming years? It turns out there are ways to reduce the risk of being mauled by the savage beast of the unexpected, as this intriguing article explains.
Article
Most of the data created and made available by today’s communication platforms are generated organically without regard to potential insights that could be gained by careful study making such platforms a valuable source of data that may prove to have more validity than self-reports. Word-frequency computerized text-based analysis has been employed...
Article
While foresight continues to develop as a field, it is arguably still relatively unknown and underappreciated by potential clients and the public. Futurists are still explaining themselves and what they do on a regular basis. One challenge in explaining futures work is a lack of consensus around key questions about the field. While a variety of per...
Chapter
Conventional analysis of security issues tends to take a disjointed approach through tightly focused tactical lenses. Increasingly, however, security issues are embedded in a wider and diverse range of factors that may escape conventional analysis. An integral futures perspective to exploring security issues is proposed that provides a wider lens b...
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Managers and policy makers are continually working toward a desired future within a context of rapid and turbulent change. To be effective in this context, they must look ahead to anticipate emerging trends, issues, opportunities, and threats. Horizon scanning is a foresight method that can help managers and policy makers develop and maintain a bro...
Article
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This article introduces the Foresight Competency Model, which addresses the basic question of what one ought to be able to do as a professional futurist. It describes how other fields have used competency models to define what their professionals do, documents how the Association of Professional Futurists (APF) developed this model, explains the in...
Article
Foresight and design are growing closer together. The two fields are sharing a key tool: scenarios. The piece opens by highlighting the growing relationship between the fields. It compares the generic process frameworks they use. It then reviews the expanding roles of scenarios in design. It concludes by suggesting there is an opportunity for futur...
Article
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The most frequently asked question I get in speaking with prospective foresight students is “can I get a job as a futurist?” I will make a case in this article that the lack of jobs and a career path in foresight is harming our long-term prospects as a field, and suggest a few things we can do about that. Three reasons are offered for why jobs are...
Book
Thinking about the Future, by Andy Hines and Peter Bishop, distills the expertise of three dozen senior foresight professionals into a set of essential guidelines for carrying out successful strategic foresight. Presented in a highly scannable yet personable style, each guideline includes an explanation and rationale, key steps, a case example, and...
Chapter
Designers and new product developers looking to develop innovative designs and products are continually challenged to understand how consumer preferences are changing. New product ideation and design is aimed at future markets, but the ideas and designs are typically developed using current consumer needs. This chapter offers a framework for unders...
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Integrating foresight into corporations has proved to be challenging and rare. The paper proposes an organizational futurist role as an internal champion and broker to facilitate the integration process. It builds on the direct experience of one of the authors in crafting the role by revisiting and critically reviewing the papers reporting on findi...
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to take up the challenge of Slaughter's Biggest Wake‐up Call in History to look for solution in the interior aspects of the Integral perspective by focusing on long‐term patterns of changing values in individual interior (the upper‐left “intentional” quadrant of the Integral matrix). Design/methodology/approach...
Article
Over the last several years, the University of Houston developed and codified a method for teaching students how to carry out foresight projects. This development represented a philosophical shift from a neutral presentation of methods without particular advocacy for one or the other. The challenge that this neutral approach presented is that each...
Article
This article advocates for the professionalization of foresight as beneficial to development of the field. It offers three reasons why: providing a focus for field-building, aiding credibility, and attracting talent. It then explores the current state of professionalization by assessing where foresight stands against the standard criteria of a prof...
Book
The faculty at the University of Houston's program in Futures Studies share their comprehensive, integrated approach to preparing foresight professionals and assisting others doing foresight projects. Provides an essential guide to developing classes on the future or even establishing whole degree programs.
Chapter
A vision is the guiding principle in a long-term transformational change undertaken by choice. It captures the essence of the preferred future. It is a simple yet precious commodity, as it can mean the difference between successful and unsuccessful transformational change. Visioning is an intensive process that involves soul-searching and should no...
Chapter
This chapter introduces some of the key concepts underlying foresight, and provides a brief overview on methods. These concepts and methods permeate the curriculum and will reappear throughout the text. They are important enough to merit a separate treatment.
Chapter
Change management has to do with transformational change. It is not about whether to change staff meetings from one hour to thirty minutes. Or whether to change the make of vehicles purchased for the company fleet. Or whether to redesign the logo (although that could be part of a transformational change process). Transformational change impacts who...
Chapter
This chapter covers material for a proposed new course. As the foresight field grows and evolves, it becomes more difficult to fit new material into existing courses. Eventually a new course becomes necessary, presenting a challenge to an already full core-curriculum. Thus, the material here will likely find its home as an elective, and fills a rol...
Chapter
Futurists are not exempt from research. There may be a perception in some circles that it’s all about intuition, deep discussions, and sophisticated computer techniques. After all, how can there be data about the future? Futurists do indeed make use of data.
Chapter
The methods of foresight deal with change in all its variety for two purposes: (1) to map change and (2) to influence it. Mapping change means describing expected and other plausible future states for which one needs to prepare. Influencing change means to bring about the best possible future given the time and resources available. People who under...
Chapter
Social change is a fact of our time, perhaps even a fact of all times. There are those who believe that change is the fundamental reality. The ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus famously said, “You cannot step into the same river twice.” The river is different, and people are different, moment to moment. So everything in the world is in continual...
Chapter
Planning is the activity that most directly involves people with the future. Nations, communities, organizations, and individuals all do some form of planning. Obviously, some do it more systematically than others, and this chapter focuses on how to go about it systematically. Strategic planning is the most commonly known and used approach. Scenari...
Chapter
Surprise is an odd emotion. People like to be surprised — an unexpected visit from a friend, a gift from our spouse, a beautiful spring day. Sometimes people even pay to be surprised — at the fair or the cinema. But surprise is not a good thing at work. Being surprised means that either something that was expected to happen didn’t or something that...
Chapter
Systems thinking is a fundamental perspective of future studies. Even calling it a “perspective” underestimates its importance. Some claim that it is the paradigm of foresight. It is the lens through which futurists view the world. It embodies some of the foundational principles of foresight, such as: Every entity (thing) is a system that consists...
Chapter
Plans do not implement themselves; people implement them, and these people are called leaders. Leaders create transformational change by leading organizations, communities or whole societies from one era to the next. Mapping the future is one thing, and a very important thing, but futurists aspire to influence the future as well. Sometimes they adv...
Book
ConsumerShift presents a New Dimensions of Consumer Life Model for making sense of how consumers are changing along two primary dimensions: inner dimension changes being driven by predictable long-term shifts in values, and outer dimension changes in society, technology, the economy, etc. This New Dimensions model thus provides a framework for unde...
Article
Full-text available
The purpose of this paper is to provide a brief overview of the evolution of Integral Futures, a new perspective and methodology in futures studies. Our approach relied primarily on a literature review, supplemented by one-on-one phone interviews and a survey of futurist practitioners (briefly summarised in Appendix A.) Integral Futures is an appro...
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Purpose The paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. Design/methodology/approach The study was carried out through an electronic search using internet search engines and online databases and indexes. Findings The paper fin...
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Most business analysts today have little experience or formal training in strategic foresight. There is an opportunity for futurists to provide them with clear and useful guidance regarding how best to practice strategic foresight. This article highlights our attempt to address this gap by bringing together the wisdom of nearly three dozen leading...
Article
The Australian Foresight Institute has brought out a collection of essays that provide a wonderful introduction into the realm of integral thinking as being brought into foresight and futures studies. They suggest a broader, more-encompassing framework for understanding the future and providing context for what's going on today. Two essays explore...
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Considers branding more in line with bringing forth self-knowledge and self-expression than the creation of a cultivated or false self. It's not about selling “new and improved” futures tools. Rather, it's about discovering the inner and authentic you and proclaiming it to your clients. The personal brand is about recognizing who you are and what y...
Article
Abstract The Association of Professional Futurists (APF) recently held a scenario salon that explored the "Futures of futures." The centerpiece of the findings was the identification and implications of four critical uncertainties affecting futurists and the futures field. First, is addressing the extremely fragmented nature of the field. Futurists...
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This paper is intended to provide a guidebook for organizational futurists in building a foresight function inside today's organizations by suggesting ten questions that ought to be answered. It addresses how to start from a blank page, but can also offer help to those who have already established a function by suggesting additional questions to th...
Article
This article gives a behind-the-scenes look at how Joe Coates has been fulfilling an agent provocateur role for futures studies in the continuing high quality of his work and his watchdog-like role over the output of the field as a whole.
Article
This article looks at the future of futures studies (FS) over the next 20 years from a practitioner’s viewpoint. It begins with favorable developments for FS in the organizational context. The main body covers how FS can take advantage of these more favorable developments. It then anticipates some key methodological and professional challenges and...
Article
With technology in overdrive and business clamouring for solutions, it's time for futurism to develop as a science. That means majoring on methodology and soft-pedalling on personality. After all, isn't genius one part inspiration, ninety-nine parts perspiration?
Article
As a futurist, you can never have too many networks - facilitating and cross-fertilizing are what it's all about. Not only are they the way for futurists to influence decisions, they're also the way to institutionalize foresight within organizations - be they public or private.
Article
Full-text available
The use of formal futures tools and concepts has been spreading "virally" in the dozen years since its introduction to the Dow culture. A handful of people spread this virus, building a network such that today the effort is poised to enter the corporate cultural mainstream. The Dow Chemical Company is typical of big multinationals wrestling with ho...
Article
Like many futurists, I use trends as a fundamental building block in my corporate foresight activities. Everybody, more or less, understands trends, even the time-pressed, attention-span-deprived corporate audience. But I am often asked: where do your trends come from, where are your data, or how did you arrive at this vision of the future?; as if...
Article
The mantra in the corporation today is speed, speed, speed. Everybody is talking about the need to get to market faster. The big driver of this infatuation is the emergence, or fear of, the 'dot.coms'. Big, slow, lumbering corporations, especially those that sell physical goods (as unprogressive as that is) are tying themselves to the speed whippin...
Article
We've talked a lot about the importance of marketing or selling the foresight function inside the organization. This time, let's look and see how our foresight practitioners are actually positioning themselves. I've distilled five categories of 'positionings.'
Article
Full-text available
These days, most in-house foresight practitioners probably don't have the luxury of a large staff – in many cases we don't have any staff.
Article
In my last column I talked about the difficulties futurists have with the bottom line. This time, I want to explore the reasons why. A primary reason, I'll submit, is that practitioners of foresight are 'different' from the corporate citizens they serve. Take this personally, because that is how it's meant.
Article
Last time I talked about the ways that 'foresight amphibians' could improve their prospects for getting their fuzzy, forward-looking ideas into projects and through organizations. That column, in fact all of hinesight to date, has been written from the viewpoint of foresight practitioners. Readers such as Trevor Williams have suggested that it woul...
Article
Let's not get too far down the road with this column without addressing the bottom line, lest we be as subject to dismissal as pie-in-the-sky theoreticians. So far I've focused on a framework for the use of foresight in business. Let's get more concrete and explore some ways that foresight has been applied in corporations in recent years. I would l...

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Project
An article that gives details on how the foresight competency model was developed for the Association of Professional Futurists, and on how the model can be used in order to develop foresight capabilities and proficiency.