Andrew Tatem

Andrew Tatem
University of Southampton · Faculty of Social and Human Sciences

PhD

About

679
Publications
161,651
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30,828
Citations
Additional affiliations
January 2013 - present
University of Southampton
Position
  • Professor (Full)

Publications

Publications (679)
Article
One of our novel and advanced modelling papers on mapping the coverage of multi-dose vaccines was published today in the journal of Statistics in Medicine. Many vaccines are often administered in multiple doses to boost their effectiveness. In the case of childhood vaccines, the coverage maps of the doses and the differences between these often co...
Article
Full-text available
Background Access to healthcare is imperative to health equity and well-being. Geographic access to healthcare can be modeled using spatial datasets on local context, together with the distribution of existing health facilities and populations. Several population datasets are currently available, but their impact on accessibility analyses is unknow...
Article
Full-text available
With the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, public health measures such as physical distancing were recommended to reduce transmission of the virus causing the disease. However, the same approach in all areas, regardless of context, may lead to measures being of limited effectiveness and having unforeseen negative consequenc...
Article
Full-text available
Background Geographic barriers to healthcare are associated with adverse maternal health outcomes. Modelling travel times using georeferenced data is becoming common in quantifying physical access. Multiple Demographic and Health Surveys ask women about distance-related problems accessing healthcare, but responses have not been evaluated against mo...
Preprint
Full-text available
Zoonotic viruses that originate in wildlife harm global human health and economic prosperity. Understanding virus transmission at the human-animal-environment interface is a key component of pandemic risk-reduction. Zoonotic disease emergence is highest in biodiverse, tropical forests undergoing intensive land-use change. Phylodynamic analyses of v...
Article
A novel coronavirus emerged in Wuhan in late 2019 and has caused the COVID-19 pandemic announced by the World Health Organization on March 12, 2020. This study was originally conducted in January 2020 to estimate the potential risk and geographic range of COVID-19 spread within and beyond China at the early stage of the pandemic. A series of connec...
Preprint
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Effective government services rely on accurate population numbers to allocate resources. In Colombia and globally, census enumeration is challenging in remote regions and where armed conflict is occurring. During census preparations, the Colombian National Administrative Department of Statistics conducted social cartography workshops where communit...
Article
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Disaggregated population counts are needed to calculate health, economic, and development indicators in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), especially in settings of rapid urbanisation. Censuses are often outdated and inaccurate in LMIC settings, and rarely disaggregated at fine geographic scale. Modelled gridded population datasets derived f...
Article
Full-text available
Health service areas are essential for planning, policy and managing public health interventions. In this study, we delineate health service areas from routinely collected health data as a robust geographic basis for presenting access to maternal care indicators. A zone design algorithm was adapted to delineate health service areas through a cross...
Article
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Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination are two fundamental approaches for mitigating the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, the real-world impact of NPIs versus vaccination, or a combination of both, on COVID-19 remains uncertain. To address this, we built a Bayesian inference model to assess the changing effect...
Article
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Pandemics such as COVID-19 and their induced lockdowns/travel restrictions have a significant impact on people’s lives, especially for lower-income groups who lack savings and rely heavily on mobility to fulfill their daily needs. Taking the COVID-19 pandemic as an example, this study analysed the risk of returning to poverty for low-income househo...
Article
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Background Substantial inequalities exist in childhood vaccination coverage levels. To increase vaccine uptake, factors that predict vaccination coverage in children should be identified and addressed. Methods Using data from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey and geospatial data sets, we fitted Bayesian multilevel binomial and multino...
Preprint
In times of volatility and crisis, it is essential to have real-time data mapping population movements to facilitate a rapid and effective humanitarian response. Considerable attention has been placed on the 5.8 million Ukrainian refugees crossing the border as of early May 2022, but information is scarce to quantify and locate over 38 million peop...
Article
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Global change impacts including climate change, increased CO2 and nitrogen deposition can be determined through a more precise characterisation of Land Surface Phenology (LSP) parameters. In addition, accurate estimation of LSP dates is being increasingly used in applications such as mapping vegetation types, yield forecasting, and irrigation manag...
Preprint
Full-text available
Access to health care is imperative to health equity and well-being. Geographic access to health care can be modelled by combining different spatial datasets, among others, on the distribution of existing health facilities and populations. Several population datasets are currently available, but their impact on accessibility analyses is unknown. In...
Article
Full-text available
Achieving equity in vaccination coverage has been a critical priority within the global health community. Despite increased efforts recently, certain populations still have a high proportion of un-and under-vaccinated children in many low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). These populations are often assumed to reside in remote-rural areas, urban...
Article
Full-text available
Achieving equity in vaccination coverage has been a critical priority within the global health community. Despite increased efforts recently, certain populations still have a high proportion of un- and under-vaccinated children in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). These populations are often assumed to reside in remote-rural areas, urb...
Preprint
Full-text available
Access to health care is imperative to health equity and well-being. Geographic access to health care can be modelled by combining different spatial datasets, among others, on the distribution of existing health facilities and populations. Several population datasets are currently available, but their impact on accessibility analyses is unknown. In...
Preprint
Disaggregated population counts are needed to calculate health, economic, and development indicators in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), especially in settings of rapid urbanisation. Censuses are often outdated and inaccurate in LMIC settings, and rarely disaggregated at fine geographic scale. Modelled gridded population datasets derived f...
Article
Full-text available
The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during the intercensal period, which can stretch up to several decades. In this study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model leveraging recent household surveys and building footprints to produce up-...
Article
Full-text available
Background Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 4 aims to ensure inclusive and equitable access for all by 2030, leaving no one behind. One indicator selected to measure progress towards achievement is the participation rate of youth in education (SDG 4.3.1). Here we aim to understand drivers of school attendance using one country in East Africa as a...
Article
Full-text available
COVID-19 has impacted the health and livelihoods of billions of people since it emerged in 2019. Vaccination for COVID-19 is a critical intervention that is being rolled out globally to end the pandemic. Understanding the spatial inequalities in vaccination coverage and access to vaccination centres is important for planning this intervention natio...
Article
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Public and school holidays have important impacts on population mobility and dynamics across multiple spatial and temporal scales, subsequently affecting the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and many socioeconomic activities. However, worldwide data on public and school holidays for understanding their changes across regions and years h...
Article
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Large-scale gridded population datasets available at the global or continental scale have become an important source of information in applications related to sustainable development. In recent years, the emergence of new population models has leveraged the inclusion of more accurate and spatially detailed proxy layers describing the built-up en...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Population and housing censuses provide essential demographic information for local, national and international decision-making and response. However, census data in the most vulnerable countries are often outdated or partial because political instability, conflict and natural disasters prevent a nationwide enumeration. The bottom-up modelling appr...
Article
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Background Since early March 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic across the United Kingdom has led to a range of social distancing policies, which resulted in changes to mobility across different regions. An understanding of how these policies impacted travel patterns over time and at different spatial scales is important for designing effective strategies...
Article
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Background Through a combination of strong routine immunization (RI), strategic supplemental immunization activities (SIA) and robust surveillance, numerous countries have been able to approach or achieve measles elimination. The fragility of these achievements has been shown, however, by the resurgence of measles since 2016. We describe trends in...
Article
Full-text available
Governments worldwide have rapidly deployed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the effect of these individual NPI measures across space and time has yet to be sufficiently assessed, especially with the increase of policy fatigue and the urge for NPI relaxation in the vaccination era. Using the decay...
Article
Full-text available
Call detail records (CDRs) from mobile phone metadata are a promising data source for mapping poverty indicators in low- and middle-income countries. These data provide information on social networks, call behavior, and mobility patterns in a population, which are correlated with measures of socioeconomic status. CDRs are passively collected and pr...
Preprint
Full-text available
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination are two fundamental approaches to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. Vaccination strategies are generally less costly and socially/economically disruptive than NPI strategies, such as business closures, social distancing, and face mask mandates, as evidenced by highly v...
Article
The twenty-first century has witnessed a wave of severe infectious disease outbreaks, not least the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a devastating impact on lives and livelihoods around the globe. The 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak, the 2009 swine flu pandemic, the 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbr...
Article
Full-text available
Background Modern transportation plays a key role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and new variants. However, little is known about the exact transmission risk of the virus on airplanes. Methods Using the itinerary and epidemiological data of COVID-19 cases and close contacts on domestic airplanes departing from Wuhan city in China before the lockdown...
Article
Full-text available
Education is a human right and a driver of development, but, is still not accessible for a vast number of adolescents and school-age-youths. Out-of-school adolescents and youth rates (SDG 4.3.1) in lower and middle-income countries have been at a virtual halt for almost a decade. Thus, there is an increasing need to understand geographic variation...
Article
Full-text available
Household survey data are frequently used to measure reproductive, maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health (RMNCAH) service utilisation in low and middle income countries. However, these surveys are typically only undertaken every 5 years and tend to be representative of larger geographical administrative units. Investments in district healt...
Article
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Human mobility is a core component of human behavior and its quantification is critical for understanding its impact on infectious disease transmission, traffic forecasting, access to resources and care, intervention strategies, and migratory flows. When mobility data are limited, spatial interaction models have been widely used to estimate human t...
Article
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Crop production is a major source of food and livelihood for many people in arid and semi-arid (ASA) regions across the world. However, due to irregular climatic events, ASA regions are affected commonly by frequent droughts that can impact food production. In addition, ASA regions in the Middle East and Africa are often characterised by political...
Article
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2020 was an unprecedented year, with rapid and drastic changes in human mobility due to the COVID-19 pandemic. To understand the variation in commuting patterns among the Chinese population across stable and unstable periods, we used nationwide mobility data from 318 million mobile phone users in China to examine the extreme fluctuations of populat...
Article
Full-text available
Human travel is one of the primary drivers of infectious disease spread. Models of travel are often used that assume the amount of travel to a specific destination decreases as cost of travel increases with higher travel volumes to more populated destinations. Trip duration, the length of time spent in a destination, can also impact travel patterns...
Preprint
Full-text available
This is a preprint of the vignette for the popRF package in the R statistical programming language. The popRF package is hosted on CRAN and the github pae for the package can be found at https://github.com/wpgp/popRF .
Article
Full-text available
Following the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in spring 2020, Europe experienced a resurgence of the virus starting in late summer 2020 that was deadlier and more difficult to contain1. Relaxed intervention measures and summer travel have been implicated as drivers of the second wave2. Here, we build a phylogeographic model to evaluate how newl...
Article
Full-text available
Understanding seasonal human mobility at subnational scales has important implications across sciences, from urban planning efforts to disease modelling and control. Assessing how, when, and where populations move over the course of the year, however, requires spatially and temporally resolved datasets spanning large periods of time, which can be r...
Preprint
Full-text available
The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during the intercensal period, which can stretch up to several decades. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model leveraging recent household surveys with probabilistic sampling designs and building fo...
Article
Full-text available
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed substantial challenges to the formulation of preventive interventions, particularly since the effects of physical distancing measures and upcoming vaccines on reducing susceptible social contacts and eventually halting transmission remain unclear. Here, using anonymized mobile geolocation d...
Article
Full-text available
Background: Understanding subnational variation in age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and total fertility rates (TFRs), and geographical clustering of high fertility and its determinants in low-income and middle-income countries, is increasingly needed for geographical targeting and prioritising of policy. We aimed to identify variation in fertil...
Preprint
Disaggregated population counts are needed to calculate health, economic, and development indicators in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), especially in settings of rapid urbanisation. Censuses are often outdated and inaccurate in LMIC settings, and rarely disaggregated at fine geographic scale. Modelled gridded population datasets derived f...
Article
Full-text available
Travel restrictions and physical distancing have been implemented across the world to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, but studies are needed to understand their effectiveness across regions and time. Based on the population mobility metrics derived from mobile phone geolocation data across 135 countries or territories dur...
Preprint
Full-text available
Worldwide governments have rapidly deployed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, together with the large-scale rollout of vaccines since late 2020. However, the effect of these individual NPI and vaccination measures across space and time has not been sufficiently explored. By the decay ratio in the suppression...
Article
Full-text available
The field of human population mapping is constantly evolving, leveraging the increasing availability of high-resolution satellite imagery and the advancements in the field of machine learning. In recent years, the emergence of global built-area datasets that accurately describe the extent, location, and characteristics of human settlements has faci...
Article
Full-text available
A surprising feature of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date is the low burdens reported in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries relative to other global regions. Potential explanations (for example, warmer environments¹, younger populations2,3,4) have yet to be framed within a comprehensive analysis. We synthesized factors hypothesized to drive the pace...
Article
Full-text available
Spatial datasets of building footprint polygons are becoming more widely available and accessible for many areas in the world. These datasets are important inputs for a range of different analyses, such as understanding the development of cities, identifying areas at risk of disasters, and mapping the distribution of populations. The growth of high...
Preprint
Disaggregated population counts are needed to calculate health, economic, and development indicators in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), especially in settings of rapid urbanisation. Censuses are often outdated and inaccurate in LMIC settings, and rarely disaggregated at fine geographic scale. Modelled gridded population datasets derived f...
Article
Full-text available
p>Following the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in spring 2020, Europe experienced a resurgence of the virus starting late summer that was deadlier and more difficult to contain. Relaxed intervention measures and summer travel have been implicated as drivers of the second wave. Here, we build a phylogeographic model to evaluate how newly introd...
Preprint
Full-text available
COVID-19 resurgences worldwide have posed significant challenges to the formulation of preventive interventions, especially given that the effects of physical distancing and vaccines on reducing susceptible social contacts and eventually halting transmission are still unclear. Using anonymized mobile geolocation data in China, we devised a mobility...
Article
Full-text available
Health and development indicators (HDIs) such as vaccination coverage are regularly measured in many low- and middle-income countries using household surveys, often due to the unreliability or incompleteness of routine data collection systems. Recently, the development of model-based approaches for producing subnational estimates of HDIs using surv...