Andres Murcia

Central Bank of Colombia · International Affairs

This paper summarises the results of a joint research project by eight central banks in the Americas region to evaluate the effectiveness of macroprudential tools and their interaction with monetary policy. In particular, using meta-analysis techniques, we summarise the results for five Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico...

This paper summarises the results of a joint research project by five central banks in Latin America countries (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru) to evaluate the effectiveness of macroprudential tools and their interaction with monetary policy. Using meta-analysis techniques, we summarise the results of a common empirical framework base...

Since 2014 the Colombian local public bond market experienced a substantial increase in the participation of foreign investors due to a reduction of the tax rates on foreign portfolio investment returns and the increase in the weight of Colombia in the JP Morgan GBI-GD. Some evidence is presented suggesting that the resulting inflows reduced bond a...

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of two macroprudential policies in Colombia: marginal reserve requirements and dynamic provisions. The first measure was implemented to control excessive credit growth, while the latter was designed to increase systemic resilience by establishing a countercyclical buffer through loan loss p...

During the last decade Colombian international financial conglomerates (IFC) expanded abroad, significantly increasing their geographical complexity. This paper analyzes the effect of this change in geographical complexity on the risk level of individual Colombian banks. We use monthly bank-level data on financial indicators and complexity measures...

During the last decade Colombian international financial conglomerates (IFC) expanded abroad, significantly increasing their geographical complexity. This paper analyzes the effect of this change in geographical complexity on the risk level of individual Colombian banks. We use monthly bank-level data on financial indicators and complexity measures...

We analyse key determinants of bank profitability based on the evolution of balance sheets of 534 banks from 19 emerging market economies. We find that higher long-term interest rates tend to boost profitability, while higher short-term rates reduce profits by raising funding costs. We also find that in normal times credit growth tends to be more i...

Macroprudential tools have been used around the world to counter potential risks and imbalances in the nancial sector. Colombia is a good example of a country that has employed a variety of regulatory measures to manage systemic risks in the economy. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the eectiveness of two such policies with a view to increa...

Macroprudential policy in Colombia is described along with a discussion of the main challenges faced by the authorities in implementing it and a review of episodes in which macroprudential measures were taken. An overview and some estimates of their effectiveness in preventing the buildup of imbalances, increasing buffers and cushioning downswings...

We study the determinants of loan loss provisions and delinquency ratios based on the balance sheets of 554 banks from emerging market economies (EMEs). We find that provisions in EME banks respond mostly to aggregate variables, and very little to idiosyncratic factors. In particular, the bank-specific credit growth rates — usually thought of as a...

Three metrics are designed to assess Colombian financial institutions' size, connectedness and non-substitutability as the main drivers of systemic importance: (i) centrality as net borrower in the money market network; (ii) centrality as payments originator in the large-value payment system network; and (iii) asset value of core financial services...

Credit channel efficiency is of high importance for monetary policy pass-through. Literature has shown that certain market structure characteristics have a negative effect on policy transmission. In this paper we aim to measure credit interest rate rigidities as a measure of monetary policy transmission, as well as to identify the effect that marke...

In this study we calculate an indicator of the shadow banking activity in Colombia for the period between January 2011 and March 2013. This indicator suggests that this activity has been increasing, accounting for about 9.9% of GDP in 2012. Additionally, we evaluate the level of pro‐cyclicality that can exhibit the leverage decision of a group of f...

Como se ha documentado en diversos estudios, existe una estrecha relación entre los flujos de capital y crédito doméstico. Esta relación surge de diferentes canales, que por lo general no se identifican directamente. En este trabajo, se propone un enfoque desde el punto de vista del agente-principal con el fin de separar los distintos canales a tra...

This work seeks to provide some additional elements in understanding the dynamics of the exchange rate in Colombia. First, it uses information from a survey directed to the exchange rate market players. It highlights the difference exhibited by market participants about the determinants of the exchange rate in the short, medium and long term. In th...

Three metrics are designed to assess Colombian financial institutions’ size, connectedness and non-substitutability as the main drivers of systemic importance: (i) centrality as net borrower in the money market network; (ii) centrality as payments originator in the large-value payment system network, and (iii) asset value of core financial services...

This work seeks to provide some additional elements in understanding the dynamics of the exchange rate in Colombia. First, it uses information from a survey directed to the exchange rate market players. It highlights the difference exhibited by market participants about the determinants of the exchange rate in the short, medium and long term. In th...

This study provides new evidence on the relationship between abnormal loan growth and banks’ risk-taking behavior using data from a rich panel of Colombian financial institutions. We show that abnormal credit growth during a prolonged period leads to an increase in banks’ riskiness, accompanied by a reduction in solvency and an increase in the rati...

As a result of the most recent global financial crisis literature has embraced size, connectedness and substitutability as key indicators for financial institutions’ systemic importance. Despite the intuitiveness of these concepts, identifying systemic important institutions remain a non-trivial task that implies two primary challenges. First, desi...

Using a panel of Colombian banks and quarterly data between 1996:1 and 2010:3, we study the relationship between short-run adjustments in bank capital buffers and the business cycle. We follow a partial adjustment framework and control for several variables that have been identified as important determinants of bank capital buffers in previous stud...

This paper is an attempt at constructing a simple and effective macroprudential tool for policymakers. By integrating the joint occurrences of the main financial markets in Colombia into a single Financial Conditions Index (FCI), we hope to synthesize the information embedded in them regarding possible future economic outcomes. To do this, we use m...

31 de marzo de 2008 Resumen El actual sistema de comisiones en Colombia no genera los incentivos necesarios para que las Admin-istradoras de Fondos de Pensiones (AFP) incrementen la rentabilidad de los fondos de pensiones. Dado que la mesada pensional futura de los afiliados depende principalmente de la capitalización de los aportes, es necesario g...

En este documento se busca identifi car los determi-nantes de acceso al crédito de los hogares colombia-nos; así, se encuentra que características tales como el ingreso, la riqueza, la posición geográfi ca, el ac-ceso a la seguridad social, el nivel de educación y la edad infl uyen sobre la probabilidad de ser usuario de los servicios fi nancieros...

Teniendo en cuenta que la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio puede afectar en gran medida al sector real y financiero, se hace un estudio comparativo entre Colombia y once pa�ses seleccionados, algunos por su similitud con Colombia en algunos aspectos y otros porque sus monedas son una referencia obligada (Euro y Yen). Se analiza la caracterizaci�n d...

El tamaño relativo de las transacciones de las Administradoras de Fondos de Pensiones (AFP) frente a los demás participantes del mercado cambiario ha sido objeto de preocupación de académicos y ejecutores de política. Las AFP pueden transar grandes volúmenes, lo cual podría influenciar las decisiones de inversión de otros agentes, exacerbando presi...

El grado de profundización financiera en Colombia, medido por la relación entre el crédito al sector privado y el PIB, se ubicaba a finales de 2003 por debajo de los niveles que tenía treinta años atrás. Esos niveles son extremadamente bajos en comparación con los de economías desarrolladas y con los de economías en desarrollo exitosas. Este trabaj...

El actual sistema de comisiones en Colombia no genera los incentivos necesarios para que las Administradoras de Fondos de Pensiones (AFP) incrementen la rentabilidad de los fondos de pensiones. Dado que la mesada pensional futura de los afiliados depende principalmente de la capitalizaci�n de los aportes, es necesario generar un esquema en el cual...

Este documento explora la relación entre la existencia de un límite superior a las tasas de interés y la profundización financiera en América Latina para el período comprendido entre 1980 y 2008. Inicialmente se hace una exposición de las características y evolución de dicha regulación en América Latina y a continuación se analiza esta relación par...

Este documento busca identificar los determinantes de acceso al cr�dito de los hogares colombianos y encuentra que caracter�sticas tales como el ingreso, la riqueza, la posici�n geogr�fica, el acceso a la seguridad social, el nivel de educaci�n y la edad afectan la probabilidad de ser usuario de los servicios financieros ac� analizados (tarjeta de...

Teniendo en cuenta que la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio puede afectar en gran medida al sector real y financiero, se hace un estudio comparativo entre Colombia y once pa�ses seleccionados, algunos por su similitud con Colombia en algunos aspectos y otros porque sus monedas son una referencia obligada (Euro y Yen). Se analiza la caracterizaci�n d...