Andrea Toreti

Andrea Toreti
European Commission | ec · Joint Research Centre (JRC)

PhD

About

133
Publications
50,969
Reads
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4,402
Citations
Additional affiliations
April 2011 - November 2013
Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen
Position
  • Professor (Assistant)

Publications

Publications (133)
Preprint
Droughts evolve in space and time without following borders or pre-determined temporal constraints. Here, we present a new database of drought events built with a three-dimensional density-based clustering algorithm. The chosen approach is able to track the spatio-temporal evolution of an event, and it was tuned against a set of past global drought...
Preprint
This study analyses the relationship between satellite-measured fAPAR (Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation), which are continuously monitored by the European Drought Observatory (EDO) of the EU’s Copernicus Emergency Management Service, and crop yield data for cereals, which are collected by Eurostat. Different features of the...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Una sequía extrema y persistente que comenzó en 2019 todavía hoy sigue afectando a la Cuenca del Plata, la segunda cuenca hidrográfica más grande de Sudamérica y la quinta del mundo. En el presente informe se ofrece una visión general del episodio, su contexto climatológico, su evolución espaciotemporal, sus causas y características y sus impactos...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Uma seca persistente e extrema iniciada em 2019 está ainda em curso e tem vindo a afetar a bacia de La Plata, a segunda maior bacia hidrográfica da América do Sul e a quinta maior do mundo. Apresentamos aqui uma panorâmica do evento, do seu contexto climatológico, da sua evolução espaciotemporal, das suas causas e características, bem como dos seus...
Article
Meteorological observations from ground weather stations are of upmost importance to implement and run sectoral climate services and to perform scientific activities, such as models’ evaluation and data assimilation. However, meteorological observations may be affected by errors deteriorating the quality and the reliability of the products based on...
Preprint
Full-text available
Warming trends are responsible for an observed decrease of water discharge in Southern France (northwestern Mediterranean). Ongoing climate change and the likely increase of water demand threaten the availability of water resources over the coming decades. Drought indices like the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) are increasingly used in climate...
Article
Full-text available
The risk of food-supply instability is expected to increase along with the frequency and intensity of extreme agro-climatic events in many regions. Assessing the sensitivity of the global agricultural system to evolving extremes requires the probability of occurrence of such events to be estimated and their links with potential food supply and dema...
Chapter
Until now, proxy records have been the primary tool for quantitative reconstructions of the physical world of the ancient and late antique Mediterranean. This chapter demonstrates the combined use of proxy datasets and the hitherto underutilized potential of earth system models in the scientific and historical study of past environmental variations...
Article
It is a good practice to follow common guidelines in the computation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) datasets as part of operational drought monitoring systems. In the European Drought Observatory (EDO, https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/) reference statistics are computed following the WMO Guidelines on the Calculation of Climate Normals, wher...
Technical Report
Full-text available
A persistent and extreme drought started in 2019 is still ongoing and has been affecting the La Plata Basin, the second largest river basin in South America and the fifth in the world. Here we provide an overview of the event, its climatological background, its spatio-temporal evolution, its causes and characteristics, as well as its impacts on nat...
Article
Full-text available
Background: Psychiatric disorders constitute a major public health concern that are associated with substantial health and socioeconomic burden. Psychiatric patients may be more vulnerable to high temperatures, which under current climate change projections will most likely increase the burden of this public health concern. Objective: This study...
Article
Full-text available
Climate change is affecting natural ecosystems and society. Anticipating its impacts on vegetation resilience is critical to estimate the ecosystems’ response to global changes and the reliability of the related ecosystem services, to support mitigation actions, and to define proper adaptation plans. Here, we compute the Annual Production Resil...
Article
Full-text available
Durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf.) is a minor cereal crop of key importance for making pasta, couscous, burghul, puddings, bread and many other traditional foods, due to its physical and chemical characteristics. The global demand for high-quality food made of durum wheat has been increasing, which poses a challenge in the face of climate change. M...
Article
Understanding, and then modelling, the effects of sowing date and cultivar on maize yield is essential to develop appropriate climate change adaptation strategies. Here we test the WOFOST model and a hybrid model, based on physiological crop conditions around flowering, against observed data collected during 4 years of field experiments in a Medite...
Article
Full-text available
Seasonal climate forecasts are a key component of sectoral climate services. Skill and reliability in predicting agro-climate indicators, co-designed with and for European wheat farmers, are here assessed. The main findings show how seasonal climate forecast provides useful information for decision-making processes in the European winter wheat-prod...
Article
Full-text available
We present ResiPy, a Python object-oriented software to compute the annual production resilience indicator. This indicator can be applied to different anthropic and natural systems, e.g., agricultural production, natural vegetation and water resources, to quantify their stabilities and the risk of adverse events. We propose an illustrative applicat...
Article
Full-text available
Drought and heat stress affect global wheat production and food security. Since these climate hazards are expected to increase in frequency and intensity due to anthropogenic climate change, there is a growing need for effective planning and adaptive actions at all timescales relevant to the stakeholders and users in this sector. This work aims at...
Chapter
Episodes of extremely strong, northerly winds, known as Etesians and observed during summer, can cause hazardous conditions over the Eastern Mediterranean (EMED). We used an ensemble of six GCM-RCM model chains from EURO-CORDEX at a 12 km resolution to estimate future changes of Etesians over the twenty-first century, under the two Representative C...
Book
Full-text available
Virtually all sub-regions of the Mediterranean Basin, on land and in the sea, are impacted by recent anthropogenic changes in the environment. The main drivers of change include climate (temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, extreme events, sea-level rise, sea water temperature, salinity and acidification), population increase, pollu...
Book
Full-text available
Virtually all sub-regions of the Mediterranean Basin, on land and in the sea, are impacted by recent anthropogenic changes in the environment. The main drivers of change include climate (temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, extreme events, sea-level rise, sea water temperature, salinity and acidification), population increase, pollu...
Article
Full-text available
Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, together with projected variations in temperature and precipitation will determine future agricultural production. Estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture provide essential information to design effective adaptation strategies, and develop sustainable food...
Article
Full-text available
Crop yields are affected by unfavourable/extreme weather and climate events occurring during sensitive growth stages. Understanding the risks associated with these events is essential to adapt agro-management decisions and reduce losses. For this purpose, we propose a targeted climate service integrating a dynamic crop phenology model with an appro...
Chapter
Full-text available
Food production in the Mediterranean Basin, from both land and the sea, is impacted by climate change, more frequent and intense extreme events, jointly with land degradation, overfishing, ocean acidification and salinization of coastal soils. Climate extremes pose a threat to the entire agriculture sector. Extremes, such as heat stress, droughts b...
Preprint
This paper presents a Python object-oriented software and code to compute the annual production resilience indicator. The annual production resilience indicator can be applied to different anthropic and natural systems such as agricultural production, natural vegetation and water resources. Here, we show an example of resilience analysis of the eco...
Article
Full-text available
Statistical, data-driven methods are considered good alternatives to process-based models for the sub-national monitoring of cereal crop yields, since they can flexibly handle large datasets and can be calibrated simultaneously to different areas. Here, we assess the influence of several characteristics on the ability of these methods to forecast c...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This report provides quantitative modelling-based results from biophysical and agro-economic models as part of the PESETA-IV (Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis) project. We analyse climate change projections for 2050 considering the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP...
Technical Report
Full-text available
The JRC PESETA IV study shows that ecosystems, people and economies in the EU will face major impacts from climate change if we do not urgently mitigate greenhouse gas emissions or adapt to climate change. The burden of climate change shows a clear north-south divide, with southern regions in Europe much more impacted, through the effects of extrem...
Article
Full-text available
Agricultural production systems are sensitive to weather and climate anomalies and extremes as well as to other environmental and socio-economic adverse events. An adequate evaluation of the resilience of such systems helps to assess food security and the capacity of society to cope with the effects of global warming and the associated increase of...
Article
Full-text available
Accurate and timely drought information is essential to move from postcrisis to preimpact drought-risk management. A number of drought datasets are already available. They cover the last three decades and provide data in near–real time (using different sources), but they are all “deterministic” (i.e., single realization), and input and output data...
Article
Full-text available
Wheat is the main staple crop and an important commodity in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. These are among the few areas in the world where the climate is suitable for growing durum wheat but also are among the most rapidly warming ones, according to the available scenarios of climate projections. How much food security and market stability...
Article
Full-text available
The Etesians are the dominant synoptically driven winds observed in the Eastern Mediterranean, usually from late spring to late summer. Due to the complex topography, the Etesians can be very strong and pose significant environmental hazards, especially over wildfire incidents. This study assesses the impacts of climate change on future Etesians by...
Article
Full-text available
Satellites offer a privileged view on terrestrial ecosystems and a unique possibility to evaluate their status, their resilience and the reliability of the services they provide. In this study, we introduce two indicators for estimating the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems from the local to the global levels. We use the Normalized Differential...
Article
Full-text available
This study focuses on the northward shift of homogeneous agro‐climate zones in Europe analyzed for the observed past and projected climate conditions for the next decades. Statistical cluster analysis is used to derive eight main agro‐climatic zones driven by two agro‐meteorological indicators, namely active temperature sum and thermal growing seas...
Book
Full-text available
This document presents the contributions presented at the first internal workshop on Artificial Intelligence (AI), organized by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. This workshop was held on 23rd May at the premises of the JRC in Ispra (Italy), with video-conference to all JRC's sites. The workshop aimed to gather JRC special...
Article
Full-text available
We review, analyse and discuss the recent evolution and the future sustainability of rice paddy fields in Italy – the larger European producer – using outcomes from available literature and new analysis of agricultural statistics from local authorities, land‐use and surface temperature data from remote sensing, hydrological and climate data from ob...
Preprint
Statistical, data-driven methods are considered good alternatives to process-based models for the sub-national monitoring of cereal crop yields since they can flexibly handle large datasets and can be calibrated simultaneously to different areas. In this study, we assess the influence of several characteristics on the ability of these methods to fo...
Article
Full-text available
Temperature and precipitation are the most important factors responsible for agricultural productivity variations. In 2018 spring/summer growing season, Europe experienced concurrent anomalies of both. Drought conditions in central and northern Europe caused yield reductions up to 50% for the main crops, yet wet conditions in southern Europe saw yi...
Conference Paper
Europe experienced exceptional climate conditions in spring and summer 2018. The extreme drought in central and northern Europe heavily affected key socio-economic sectors. While, anomalous wet conditions in southern Europe favoured sectors such as agriculture triggering crop yield gains that partially offset the losses in central and northern Euro...
Article
Full-text available
Climate extremes have profound impacts on key socio-economic sectors such as agriculture. In a changing climate context, characterised by an intensification of these extremes and where the population is expected to grow, exposure and vulnerability must be accurately assessed. However, most risk assessments analyse extremes independently, thus poten...
Preprint
Agricultural production is affected by climate extremes, which are increasing because of global warming. This motivates the need of a proper evaluation of the agricultural production systems resilience to enhance food security, market stability, and the general ability of society to cope with the effects of climate change. Resilience is generally a...
Article
Full-text available
We estimate the effects of climate anomalies (heat stress and drought) on annual maize product ion, variability and trend from the country level to the global scale using a statistical model. Moderate climate anomalies and extremes are diagnosed with two indicators of heat stress and drought computed over maize growing regions during the most relev...
Article
Full-text available
Agroclimatic extremes can be seen as typical supply shifters that, on a par with economic and structural drivers, distort supply, demand, trade, and induce price variability. Economic simulation models typically operate under the assumption of ‘normal’ growing conditions, contain no explicit parameterization of climatic anomalies on the supply side...
Article
Full-text available
An early warning system for drought events can provide valuable information for decision makers dealing with water resources management and international aid. However, predicting such extreme events is still a big challenge. In this study, we compare two approaches for drought predictions based on forecasted precipitation derived from the Ensemble...
Book
Full-text available
The study assesses how climate change could affect Europe in eleven impact areas. Under a high warming scenario, several climate impacts show a clear geographical northsouth divide. Most of the welfare losses, assessed for six impact areas, would be greatly reduced under a 2ᵒC scenario. ► How to cite: ◄ Ciscar Martinez, J.-C., Ibarreta Ruiz, D.,...
Article
Recent accelerated climate change has exacerbated existing environmental problems in the Mediterranean Basin that are caused by the combination of changes in land use, increasing pollution and declining biodiversity. For five broad and interconnected impact domains (water, ecosystems, food, health and security), current change and future scenarios...
Article
Full-text available
The Etesians are among the most persistent regional scale wind systems in the lower troposphere that prevail over the eastern Mediterranean during the extended summer season. The performance of five high-resolution EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating the Etesian climatology as well as the associated large-scale atmospheric circ...
Article
Full-text available
An early warning system for drought events can provide valuable information for decision makers dealing with water resources management and international aid. However, predicting such extreme events is still a big challenge. In this study, we compare two approaches for drought predictions based, respectively, on forecasted precipitation derived fro...
Article
Full-text available
Weather observations are essential for crop monitoring and forecasting but they are not always available and in some cases they have limited spatial representativeness. Thus, reanalyses represent an alternative source of information to be explored. In this study, we assess the feasibility of reanalysis-based crop monitoring and forecasting by using...
Article
Full-text available
This article analyses high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Central and Eastern Mediterranean and compares them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for the Crusader period in the Levant (1095–1290 CE), the Mamluk regime in Transjordan (1260–1516 CE) and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebe...
Article
Full-text available
This study describes and evaluates improvements to the MARS crop yield forecasting system (MCYFS) for winter soft wheat (Triticum aestivum) in Europe, based on the WOFOST crop simulation model, by introducing autumn sowing dates, realistic soil moisture initialization, adding vernalization requirements and photoperiodicity, and phenology calibratio...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Advancing our understanding on the impact of climate variability and extremes on crop production is a crucial element in the development of an integrated seasonal crop yield forecasting system. The early prediction of severe weather events can contribute to the mitigation of adverse effects on agricultural production. Due to their poor skill, seaso...