Andrea J. Ray

Andrea J. Ray
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA · Earth System Research Lab/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO

Ph.D. Environment & Society Geography

About

83
Publications
13,635
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Introduction
Andrea J. Ray currently works at the Earth System Research Lab/Physical Sciences Laboratory (formerly Division), Boulder, CO, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Publications

Publications (83)
Article
Full-text available
This paper investigates what is needed to make climate and weather information more usable for the wildlife management practitioners and ecological researchers in the Prairie Potholes Region (PPR) of the North Central United States. Using interviews, policy document analysis, and participant observation, we identify climate and weather information...
Article
Full-text available
An observing network has been established along the United States west coast that provides up to 20 years of observations to support early warning, preparedness and studies of atmospheric rivers (ARs). The Hydrometeorology Testbed-West Legacy Observing Network, a suite of upper air and surface observing instruments, is now an official National Ocea...
Article
Full-text available
The goal of the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit's (CRT) Climate Explorer (CE) is to provide information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales to help practitioners gain insights into the risks posed by climate change. Ultimately, these insights can lead to groups of local stake-holders taking action to build their resilience to a changing clim...
Article
Full-text available
Future reduction in mountain snowpack due to anthropogenic climate change poses a threat to many snow‐adapted species worldwide. Mountain topography exerts a strong control on snowpack not only due to elevation but also through the effect of slope and aspect on the surface energy balance. We develop high‐resolution projections of snowpack in order...
Article
Full-text available
Assessing how climate change information is used in conservation planning is an important part of meeting long‐term conservation and climate adaptation goals. In the United States, state agencies responsible for fish and wildlife management create State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) to identify conservation goals, prioritize actions, and establish...
Article
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The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) experiences considerable space–time variability in temperature and precipitation, and this variability is expected to increase. The PPR is sensitive to this variability—it plays a large role in the water availability of the region. Thousands of wetlands in the region, sometimes containing ponds, provide habitats and...
Article
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Summer rainfall in the southeast Prairie Pothole Region (SEPPR) is an important part of a vital wetland ecosystem that various species use as their habitat. We examine sources and pathways for summer rainfall moisture, large-scale features inuencing moisture delivery, and large-scale connections related to summer moisture using the HYSPLIT model. A...
Article
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The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), located in central North America, is an important region hydrologically and ecologically. Millions of wetlands, many containing ponds, are located here, and they serve as habitats for various biota and breeding grounds for waterfowl. They also provide carbon sequestration, sediment and nutrient attenuation, and flo...
Technical Report
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An understanding of future flows and stream temperatures is necessary to inform the design of project infrastructure, including fish passage protection measures, and project operations. The best available science indicates temperature, precipitation, and stream flows will increase in the Bristol Bay region, and much of south central Alaska (IPCC 20...
Presentation
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Both infrastructure and the primary and secondary effects of climate change on river hydrology and water temperature can affect salmonid populations and other NOAA trust species. Management actions, including those proscribed in fish passage design and the design and operation of hydropower dams, provide the opportunity to build resilience to clima...
Article
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In this paper we examine current policies to combat drought in urban areas in the United States to illuminate lessons learned for building climate adaptive capacity. We conducted interviews with practitioners involved in drought management at urban water utilities across the U.S. to understand: 1) both short- and long-term actions taken in response...
Article
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We investigated the moisture sources and tracks that enable summer rainfall over the four-state southwestern U.S. region of Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah by employing a high-resolution Lagrangian particle tracking model. Six locations were selected-Cedar City (Utah), Grand Junction (Colorado), Eastonville (Colorado), Laveen (Arizona), Red...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This report is an attachment to the comments of the NOAA National Marine Fisheries service on the Brookfield White Pine Hydro, LLC’s Notice of Intent to File a License Application to FERC and Filing of Pre-Application Document for the Hiram Project (P - 2530)
Article
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Federal investments by U.S. agencies to enhance climate resilience at regional scales grew over the past decade (2010s). To maximize efficiency and effectiveness in serving multiple sectors and scales, it has become critical to leverage existing agency-specific research, infrastructure, and capacity while avoiding redundancy. We discuss lessons lea...
Article
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Forecasts by mid-2015 for a strong El Niño during winter 2015/16 presented an exceptional scientific opportunity to accelerate advances in understanding and predictions of an extreme climate event and its impacts while the event was ongoing. Seizing this opportunity, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) initiated an El Niño Ra...
Article
Full-text available
Ecologists who specialize in translational ecology (TE) seek to link ecological knowledge to decision making by integrating ecological science with the full complement of social dimensions that underlie today's complex environmental issues. TE is motivated by a search for outcomes that directly serve the needs of natural resource managers and decis...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Overview: This study is a fine-scale assessment of snow extent and depth for two areas within and surrounding Glacier and Rocky Mountain National Parks. The analysis was done for both the recent past, using MODIS satellite-based remote sensing, and in historic simulations and projections of future snowpack using a high-resolution hydrologic model....
Article
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Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill f...
Article
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While seasonal outlooks have been operational for many years, until recently the extended-range timescale referred to as subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) has received little attention. S2S prediction fills the gap between short-range weather prediction and long-range seasonal outlooks. Decisions in a range of sectors are made in this extended-range le...
Conference Paper
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) have issued operational water supply forecasts and information for decades. The strength of these products is that they are generated from real-time hydrologic modeling systems that incorporate hydrometeorological data and the l...
Article
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Unlike much of the contiguous United States, new hydropower development continues in the Far North, where climate models project precipitation will likely increase over the next century. Regional complexities in the Arctic and sub-Arctic, such as glacier recession and permafrost thaw, however, introduce uncertainties about the hydrologic responses...
Article
Full-text available
Unlike much of the contiguous United States, new hydropower development continues in the Far North, where climate models project precipitation will likely increase over the next century. Regional complexities in the Arctic and sub- Arctic, such as glacier recession and permafrost thaw, however, introduce uncertainties about the hydrologic responses...
Technical Report
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The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two f...
Technical Report
Full-text available
The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two f...
Technical Report
Full-text available
The Glacier and Runoff Changes (GRC) Study determination from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Dispute Resolution (April 26, 2013) requires for the literature review as "described in Revised Study Plan (RSP) section 7.7.4.1." The RSP describes the literature review method: to summarize the current understanding of the rate and trend...
Chapter
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This chapter presents three cases of providing climate science for water policy decisions and the tangible challenges and opportunities encountered by scientists. These challenges include (1) different timeframes typical to funding and implementing research projects versus the often short timeframes of policy and legal processes; (2) the implicatio...
Data
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Chapter
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Managing multiple scales of climate knowledge and decision making has proven key to the provision of useful climate information for decision support. In this chapter we use specific examples from the work of the Western Water Assessment RISA program to illustrate how boundary work, consisting of convening, translating, collaborating and mediating,...
Technical Report
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The Commission-approved Study Plan for the Project does not order evaluation of the Project's effects in the light of future climate change. NMFS proposes this new information collection or study according to the regulations implementing the ILP, 18 C.F.R. § 5.15 (e), for good cause. Significant new information, material to the study objectives has...
Chapter
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Climate scientists and decision-makers need to be able to efficiently work together to understand each others’ needs, capabilities, and limitations, in order to inform decisions to adapt to a changing environment. However, analytical frameworks for understanding the user context are not well documented. This chapter describes decision calendars as...
Poster
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Water resources managers used National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) water supply forecasts and information for decades. With growing population and demand, and water supply affected by extended and extreme droughts, these forecasts have become increasingly important to water management communities. However, these stakeholders...
Presentation
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Abstract: This presentation will describe a project to between ecologists and climate scientists to inform National Park Service managers who are developing scenario planning for their parks and surrounding areas; this effort is advancing scenario methodologies and improving delivery mechanisms and applications to decision-making for National Parks...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This chapter provides the climate analysis for the BLM Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment. It describes the current climate of the Wyoming Basin, the range of potential climate change for the Wyoming Basin, and the reasonably foreseeable climate futures for ecosystems as they are understood now. The “reasonably foreseeable” concept is model...
Poster
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Abstract: This presentation focuses on linking climate knowledge to the complicated decision process for hydropower dam licensing, and the affected parties involved in that process. The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issues licenses for nonfederal hydroelectric operations, typically 30-50 year licenses, and longer infrastructure lifespan...
Article
Full-text available
The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the northern Great Plains is a vital ecosystem responsible each year for producing 50%–80% of new recruits to the North American duck population. Climate variability and change can impact the hydrology and ecology of the region with implications for waterfowl populations. The historical relationship between PPR w...
Article
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Suppose you are a city planner, regional water manager, or wildlife conservation specialist who is asked to include the potential impacts of climate variability and change in your risk management and planning efforts. What climate information would you use? The choice is often regional or local climate projections downscaled from global climate mod...
Chapter
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Extreme events can be defined in many ways. Typical definitions of weather and climate extremes consider either the maximum value during a specified time interval (such as season or year) or exceedance of a threshold (the “peaks-over-threshold” [POT] approach), in which universal rather than local thresholds are frequently applied. For example, tem...
Chapter
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Global climate models (GCMs) are the fundamental drivers of regional climate-change projections (IPCC 2007). GCMs allow us to characterize changes in atmospheric circulation associated with human causes at global and continental scales. However, because of the planetary scope of the GCMs, their resolution, or level of detail, is somewhat coarse. A...
Conference Paper
This moderated discussion will include speakers from the session on "Connecting Climate Science to Fisheries Management and Ecology in a Changing World," and will provide time for questions and discussion across the range of talks in the session on the application of climate information into operational management of living marine resources, and ca...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This presentation will summarize results and some of the scientific challenges that were faced in preparing a NOAA rapid assessment of climate provided as input to the Fish & Wildlife Service review of the American Pika to determine if climate change risks warranted listing the species as endangered. NOAA provided FWS with an assessment of climate...
Article
Full-text available
On the Colorado River (as elsewhere), severe drought is useful for illuminating sources of water supply vulnerability, focusing attention on deficiencies in water allocation and management. A major drought study in the early 1990s, and experience with real drought a decade later, both have been useful in understanding vulnerability as a function of...