Andrea Nigri

• Tenure-track assistant Professor
• University of Foggia

In order to monitor the poverty scenario and its dynamics in lockstep with longevity trends around the world, we estimated and analyzed poverty-free life expectancy (PFLE) on EU-SILC data. Poverty-free life expectancy is the number of years an individual is expected to live free of poverty. Monitoring changes in PFLE is fundamental for understandin...

We propose to investigate the joint dynamics of regional gross domestic product and life expectancy in Italy through Wasserstein barycenter regression derived from optimal transport theory. Wasserstein barycenter regression has the advantage of being flexible in modeling complex data distributions, given its ability to capture multimodal relationsh...

Reliable estimates of age-specific vital rates are crucial in demographic studies, while ages are, in most cases, commonly grouped in bins of five years. Indeed, public health and national systems require single age-specific data to achieve accurate social planning. This paper introduces a deep learning approach for splitting the abridged death rat...

In addition to fundamental mortality metrics such as mortality rates and mortality rate ratios, life expectancy is also commonly used to investigate excess mortality among a group of individuals diagnosed with specific diseases or conditions. However, as an average measure, life expectancy ignores the heterogeneity in lifespan. Interestingly, the v...

With the increasing availability of temporal data, a researcher often analyzes information saved into matrices, in which entries are replicated in different occasions. Such multidimensional data can be stored in arrays or tensors in a way that relevant patterns among variables can be teased apart by retaining the time-varying nature of the data. In...

The rise in longevity in the twentieth century has led to a growing interest in modeling mortality, and new advanced techniques such as machine learning have recently joined to more traditional models, such as the Lee–Carter or the Age Period Cohort. However, the performances of these models, in terms of fitting to the observed data, are difficult...

In recent years, lifespan inequality has become an important indicator of population health, alongside more established longevity measures. Uncovering the statistical properties of lifespan inequality measures can provide novel insights on the study of mortality developments.We revisit the "e-dagger" measure of lifespan inequality, introduced in Va...

This paper aims to assess whether the male-to-female ratio in life expectancy is driven by cross-national long-period common trends. If a common trend is detected across a group of countries, then a model taking it into account should provide a more reliable description of the process in scope. We model the gender life expectancy ratio of a set of...

To design appropriate pension or insurance plans it is crucial to understand mortality heterogeneity across demographic features, such as age, gender, and country. To this aim, we propose a coherent mortality forecasting methodology, which leverages the four-way CANDECOMP/PARAFAC and Vector-Error Correction models. We examine how age groups, years,...

Healthy life expectancy (HLE) is an indicator that measures the number of years individuals at a given age are expected to live free of disease or disability. HLE forecasting is essential for planning the provision of health care to elderly populations and appropriately pricing Long Term Care insurance products. In this paper, we propose a methodol...

In many low-mortality countries, life expectancy at birth increased steadily over the last century. In particular, both Italian females and males benefited from faster improvements in mortality compared to other high-income countries, especially from the 1960s, leading to an exceptional increase in life expectancy. However, Italy has not become the...

In various situations, a researcher analyses data stored in a matrix. Often, the information is replicated on different occasions that can be time-varying or refer to different conditions. In these situations, data can be stored in a multi-way array or tensor. In this work, using the Tucker4 model, we apply a tensor-based approach to the mortality...

Background: Life expectancy is one of the most informative indicators of population health and development. Its stability, which has been observed over time, has made the prediction andforecasting of life expectancy an appealing area of study. However, predicted or estimatedvalues of life expectancy do not tell us about age-specific mortality. Obje...

In this paper, we make a prediction of the second wave of COVID-19 using a dynamic evolving neuro-fuzzy inference system (DENFIS). The model choice is motivated by the fact that the spread of the pandemic must be read in its dynamism and every prediction cannot ignore the daily updating of available data and new information. We provide results of t...

Several countries worldwide are experiencing a continuous increase in life expectancy, extending the challenges of life actuaries and demographers in forecasting mortality. Although several stochastic mortality models have been proposed in the literature, mortality forecasting research remains a crucial task. Recently, various research works have e...

With the increasing availability of temporal data, researchers often analyze information stored in matrices, in which entries are replicated on different occasions. Such multidimensional data can be stored in 3-way arrays or tensors to be analyzed. A collection of 3-way arrays can also be available leading to 4-way arrays. In this work, we apply a...

This study investigates the long-term dynamics of longevity by taking into account the specific contribution of each country, and how this has changed over time, thus highlighting different timing and speeds of the evolution of life expectancy among the low-lowest mortality countries. Leveraging on quantile regression, we analyze the specific posit...

Life expectancy at birth has attracted interest in various fields, as a health indicator that measures the quality of life. Its appeal relies on the ability to enclose and summarize all the factors affecting longevity. However, more granular information, provided by social indicators such as cause-of-death mortality rates, plays a crucial role in d...

This paper aims at investigating whether the life expectancy gender gap follows any long-run common tendency across different countries through a model-based analysis. If these tendencies are found to exist, then a model which takes them into account should perform better than a basic and unrestricted one. Once the gap is modeled as a multivariate...

In this paper, we apply a functional clustering method to the multivariate time series of life expectancy at birth of the female populations collected in the Human Mortality Database. We reconstruct the functional form of life expectancy from the available discrete observations and derive the curves through non-parametric smoothing. Once the cluste...

This paper contributes to the current discussion on longevity by investigating the long-term dynamics of life expectancy, and lifespan variation. The analysis provides the expectiles of the life expectancy distribution, relating them to the values of lifespan variation measured by Keyfitz’s index. This allows us to study both the location and the s...

Undoubtedly, several countries worldwide endure to experience a continuous increase in life expectancy, extending the challenges of life actuaries and demographers in forecasting mortality. Although several stochastic mortality models have been proposed in past literature, the mortality forecasting research remains a crucial task. Recently, various...

Purpose: The aim of this study is to compare two dynamic imaging modalities employed to study peripheral lymphatic system, Magnetic Resonance Lymphangiography (MRL) and Indocyanine Green Lymphangiography (ICGL), evaluating their role for planning lymphaticovenular anastomosis (LVA) or other surgical-nonsurgical treatments in patients with lymphede...

Longevity risk management is an area of the life insurance business where the use of Artificial Intelligence is still underdeveloped. The paper retraces the main results of the recent actuarial literature on the topic to draw attention to the potential of Machine Learning in predicting mortality and consequently improving the longevity risk quantif...

After the World War II, developed countries experienced a constant decline in mortality. As a result, life expectancy has never stopped increasing, despite an evident deceleration in developed countries, e.g. England, USA and Denmark. In this paper, we propose a new approach for forecasting life expectancy and lifespan disparity based on the recurr...

Increased life expectancy in developed countries has led researchers to pay more attention to mortality projection to anticipate changes in mortality rates. Following the scheme proposed in Deprez et al. (Eur Actuar J 7(2):337–352, 2017) and extended by Levantesi and Pizzorusso (Risks 7(1):26, 2019), we propose a novel approach based on the combina...

In the field of mortality, the Lee–Carter based approach can be considered the milestone to forecast mortality rates among stochastic models. We could define a “Lee–Carter model family” that embraces all developments of this model, including its first formulation (1992) that remains the benchmark for comparing the performance of future models. In t...

Object Active sacroiliitis based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) without intravenous (I.V.) contrast material injection is considered sufficient for the diagnosis of spondyloarthritis (SpA), according to the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis International Society (ASAS) criteria. This work shows the added value of administering I.V. contrast mate...

Aim To investigate the role of maximum tumour diameter (D-max) reduction rate at CT examination in predicting histopathological tumour regression grade (TRG according to the Becker grade), after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), in patients with resectable advanced gastric cancer (AGC). Materials and Methods Eighty-six patients (53 M, mean age 62.1...

Purpose: This article illustrates the feasibility of MR lymphangiography (MRL) for imaging lymphatic vessels in patients with lymphedema, its accuracy in distinguishing lymphatic vessels from veins, and its utility for planning Lymphaticovenous anastomosis (LVA) treatment. Materials and methods: We prospectively enrolled 30 patients (24 women, r...