Anders Levermann

Anders Levermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research | PIK · Complexity Science - Research Domain IV

Prof. Ph.D.

About

237
Publications
83,377
Reads
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14,820
Citations
Introduction
Also: Professor at Physics Institute of Potsdam University Adjunct senior research scientist at Columbia University Scientific coordinator of http://zeean.net/
Additional affiliations
October 2015 - present
Columbia University
Position
  • Adjunct senior research scientist
January 2014 - November 2016
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Position
  • Head of Global Adaptation Strategies
March 2012 - present
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Position
  • Co-chair of research domain

Publications

Publications (237)
Article
Full-text available
Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even af...
Article
Full-text available
Indian monsoon rainfall is vital for a large share of the world's population. Both reliably projecting India's future precipitation and unraveling abrupt cessations of monsoon rainfall found in paleorecords require improved understanding of its stability properties. While details of monsoon circulations and the associated rainfall are complex, full...
Preprint
Full-text available
Recently observed large-scale disintegration of Antarctic ice shelves has moved their fronts closer towards grounded ice. In response, ice-sheet discharge into the ocean has accelerated, contributing to global sea-level rise and emphasizing the importance of calving-front dynamics. The position of the ice front strongly influences the stress field...
Article
Full-text available
Plain Language Summary Rainfall is a critical resource for a large population in the African Sahel region, but rainfall levels have strongly varied in the past. It is unclear what will happen in the next decades, because some climate models suggest little to no change in average rainfall, while other models project a strong increase due to climate...
Article
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Background A link between weather and aggression in the offline world has been established across a variety of societal settings. Simultaneously, the rapid digitalisation of nearly every aspect of everyday life has led to a high frequency of interpersonal conflicts online. Hate speech online has become a prevalent problem that has been shown to agg...
Article
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Plain Language Summary The South Asian monsoon affects the life of more than one billion people. In the past, summer monsoon seasons (June–September) with very intense rainfall have been associated with widespread floods and an increased number of landslides. Here, we set the focus on the question how the probability of these very wet monsoon seaso...
Preprint
The timescales of the flow and retreat of Greenland's and Antarctica's outlet glaciers and their potential instabilities are arguably the largest uncertainty in future sea-level projections. Here we derive a scaling relation that allows the comparison of the timescales of observed complex ice flow fields with geometric similarity. The scaling relat...
Article
Full-text available
Basal ice-shelf melting is the key driver of Antarctica's increasing sea-level contribution. In diminishing the buttressing force of the ice shelves that fringe the ice sheet, the melting increases the ice discharge into the ocean. Here we contrast the influence of basal melting in two different ice-shelf regions on the time-dependent response of a...
Preprint
Full-text available
Through-out human history the new generations have sought to create their own artistic style while trying to avoid repeating, for example, earlier generations' music. If we assume that this search occurs in a multi-dimensional but confined space of creativity, this gives rise to highly complex dynamics. We present a very simple mathematical model w...
Preprint
Full-text available
Projections of precipitation from global climate models are crucial for risk assessment and adaptation strategies under different emission scenarios, yet model uncertainty limits their application. Here, we assess inter-model differences by separating the response of precipitation to anthropogenic forcing within 21 individual, bias-adjusted CMIP6 m...
Article
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Forests play a key role in a bio-based economy by providing renewable materials, mitigating climate change, and accommodating biodiversity. However, forests experience massive increases in stresses in their ecological and socioeconomic environments, threatening forest ecosystem services supply. Alleviating those stresses is hampered by conflicting...
Article
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Macro-economic assessments of climate impacts lack an analysis of the distribution of daily rainfall, which can resolve both complex societal impact channels and anthropogenically forced changes1–6. Here, using a global panel of subnational economic output for 1,554 regions worldwide over the past 40 years, we show that economic growth rates are re...
Article
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Tropical cyclones range among the costliest disasters on Earth. Their economic repercussions along the supply and trade network also affect remote economies that are not directly affected. We here simulate possible global repercussions on consumption for the example case of Hurricane Sandy in the US (2012) using the shock-propagation model Acclimat...
Article
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Ambient temperature has been identified as a potential cause for human conflict in a variety of studies. Conflict is no longer limited to the physical space but exists in the form of hate and discrimination on social media. Here we provide evidence that the amount of racist and xenophobic content posted to the social media platform Twitter is nonli...
Article
Full-text available
A portion of human-caused carbon dioxide emissions will stay in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, raising temperatures and sea levels globally. Most nations’ emissions-reduction policies and actions do not seem to reflect this long-term threat, as collectively they point toward widespread permanent inundation of many developed areas. Using stat...
Article
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The most complex but potentially most severe impacts of climate change are caused by extreme weather events. In a globally connected economy, damages can cause remote perturbations and cascading consequences --- a ripple effect along supply chains. Here we show an economic ripple resonance that amplifies losses when consecutive or overlapping weath...
Preprint
Full-text available
Basal ice-shelf melting is the key driver of Antarctica's increasing sea-level contribution. In diminishing the buttressing force of the ice shelves that fringe the ice sheet the melting increases the solid-ice discharge into the ocean. Here we contrast the influence of basal melting in two different ice-shelf regions on the time-dependent response...
Article
Full-text available
Due to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of snowfall. Here we show an intensification of extreme snowfal...
Preprint
Full-text available
Due to global warming and particularly high regional ocean warming, both Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in the Amundsen region of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could lose their buttressing ice shelves over time. We analyze the possible consequences using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), applying a simple cliff-calving parameterization and an ice-m...
Article
Full-text available
Significance Understanding how the variability of daily temperature may change with greenhouse gas emissions is important because it has been identified as a key factor in societal and economic well-being. Assessing historical changes to daily temperature variability in comparison with those from state-of-the-art climate models, we show that variab...
Article
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With increasing carbon emissions rising temperatures are likely to impact our economies and societies profoundly. In particular, it has been shown that heat stress can strongly reduce labor productivity. The resulting economic perturbations can propagate along the global supply network. Here we show, using numerical simulations, that output losses...
Article
Full-text available
Increasing greenhouse gas emissions are likely to impact not only natural systems but economies worldwide. If these impacts alter future economic development, the financial losses will be significantly higher than the mere direct damages. So far, potentially aggravating investment responses were considered negligible. Here we consistently incorpora...
Article
Full-text available
To design incentives towards achieving climate mitigation targets, it is important to understand the mechanisms that affect individual climate decisions such as solar panel installation. It has been shown that peer effects are important in determining the uptake and spread of household photovoltaic installations. Due to coarse geographical data, it...
Article
Full-text available
The Indian summer monsoon is an integral part of the global climate system. As its seasonal rainfall plays a crucial role in India's agriculture and shapes many other aspects of life, it affects the livelihood of a fifth of the world's population. It is therefore highly relevant to assess its change under potential future climate change. Global cli...
Article
Full-text available
Elevated annual average temperature has been found to impact macro-economic growth. However, various fundamental elements of the economy are affected by deviations of daily temperature from seasonal expectations which are not well reflected in annual averages. Here we show that increases in seasonally adjusted day-to-day temperature variability red...
Article
Full-text available
Both ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are discharging ice into the ocean. In many regions along the coast of the ice sheets, the icebergs calve into a bay. If the addition of icebergs through calving is faster than their transport out of the embayment, the icebergs will be frozen into a mélange with surrounding sea ice in winter. In this case...
Article
Full-text available
Acceleration of the flow of ice drives mass losses in both the Antarctic and the Greenland Ice Sheet. The projections of possible future sea-level rise rely on numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physics of ice flow, melt, and calving. While major advancements have been made by the ice-sheet modeling community in addressing several of the r...
Preprint
Full-text available
The Indian summer monsoon is an integral part of the global climate system. As its seasonal rainfall plays a crucial role in India's agriculture and shapes many other aspects of life, it affects the livelihood of a fifth of the world's population. It is therefore highly relevant to assess its change under potential future climate change. Global cli...
Preprint
Full-text available
Tropical cyclones range among the most severe disasters on Earth. Their economic repercussions along the supply and trade network also affect remote economies that are not directly affected. To find these repercussions in data is challenging due to the strong volatility of economic interactions. Numerical simulations can help to identify these ripp...
Article
Full-text available
More than half of Earth’s freshwater resources are held by the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which thus represents by far the largest potential source for global sea-level rise under future warming conditions¹. Its long-term stability determines the fate of our coastal cities and cultural heritage. Feedbacks between ice, atmosphere, ocean, and the solid Ear...
Article
Full-text available
Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet constitutes the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Ocean-driven melting underneath the floating ice shelves and subsequent acceleration of the inland ice streams are the major reasons for currently observed mass loss from Antarctica and are expected to become more important in the fut...
Article
Full-text available
After the United Kingdom has left the European Union it remains unclear whether the two parties can successfully negotiate and sign a trade agreement within the transition period. Ongoing negotiations, practical obstacles and resulting uncertainties make it highly unlikely that economic actors would be fully prepared to a "no-trade-deal" situation....
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. The flow of ice drives mass losses in both, the Antarctic and the Greenland Ice Sheet. The projections of possible future sea-level rise rely on numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physics of ice flow and melt. While a number of important uncertainties have been addressed by the ice-sheet modeling community, the flow law, which is...
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. Both ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica are discharging ice into the ocean. In many regions along the coast of the ice sheets, the icebergs calf into a bay. If the addition of icebergs through calving is faster than their transport out of the embayment, the icebergs will be frozen into a mélange with surrounding sea ice in winter. In...
Article
Full-text available
The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to es...
Article
Full-text available
Simulations of the glacial–interglacial history of the Antarctic Ice Sheet provide insights into dynamic threshold behavior and estimates of the ice sheet's contributions to global sea-level changes for the past, present and future. However, boundary conditions are weakly constrained, in particular at the interface of the ice sheet and the bedrock....
Article
Full-text available
The Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) is applied to the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last two glacial cycles (≈210 000 years) with a resolution of 16 km. An ensemble of 256 model runs is analyzed in which four relevant model parameters have been systematically varied using full-factorial parameter sampling. Parameters and plausible parameter ranges h...
Article
Full-text available
The Paris Climate Agreement aims to keep temperature rise well below 2 °C. This implies mitigation costs as well as avoided climate damages. Here we show that independent of the normative assumptions of inequality aversion and time preferences, the agreement constitutes the economically optimal policy pathway for the century. To this end we consist...
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet constitutes the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise. Ocean-driven melting underneath the floating ice shelves and subsequent acceleration of the inland ice streams is the major reason for currently observed mass loss from Antarctica and is expected to become more important in...
Poster
Full-text available
The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores enough freshwater to raise the mean elevation of the oceans by nearly 60 meters globally and is thus constituting by far the largest source of potential future sea-level rise. Even though presently observed rates of Antarctic sea-level contribution are comparatively low, this poses a serious threat to our world's coas...
Article
Full-text available
Both climate-change damages and climate-change mitigation will incur economic costs. While the risk of severe damages increases with the level of global warming (Dell et al., 2014; IPCC, 2014b, 2018; Lenton et al., 2008), mitigating costs increase steeply with more stringent warming limits (IPCC, 2014a; Luderer et al., 2013; Rogelj et al., 2015). H...
Article
Full-text available
After the United Kingdom has left the European Union it remains unclear whether the two parties can successfully negotiate and sign a trade agreement within the transition period. Ongoing negotiations, practical obstacles and resulting uncertainties make it highly unlikely that economic actors would be fully prepared to a “no-trade-deal” situation....
Article
Full-text available
Over large coastal regions in Greenland and Antarctica the ice sheet calves directly into the ocean. In contrast to ice-shelf calving, an increase in calving from grounded glaciers contributes directly to sea-level rise. Ice cliffs with a glacier freeboard larger than ≈100 m are currently not observed, but it has been shown that such ice cliffs are...
Article
Full-text available
There is evidence that a self-sustaining ice discharge from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) has started, potentially leading to its disintegration. The associated sea level rise of more than 3m would pose a serious challenge to highly populated areas including metropolises such as Calcutta, Shanghai, New York City, and Tokyo. Here, we show that...
Article
Full-text available
Recent observations and ice-dynamic modeling suggest that a marine ice-sheet instability (MISI) might have been triggered in West Antarctica. The corresponding outlet glaciers, Pine Island Glacier (PIG) and Thwaites Glacier (TG), showed significant retreat during at least the last 2 decades. While other regions in Antarctica have the topographic pr...
Article
Full-text available
The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to es...
Article
Full-text available
The Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) is applied to the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last two glacial cycles (≈ 210,000 years) with a resolution of 16 km. A Large Ensemble of 256 model runs is analyzed in which four relevant model parameters have been systematically varied using full-factorial parameter sampling. Parameters and plausible parameter ra...
Article
Full-text available
Simulations of the glacial-interglacial history of the Antarctic Ice Sheet provide insights into dynamic threshold behavior and estimates of the ice sheet’s contributions to global sea-level changes, for both the past, present and future. However, boundary conditions are weakly constrained, in particular, at the interface of the ice-sheet and the b...
Article
Full-text available
Recent observations and ice-dynamic modeling suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) might have been triggered in West Antarctica. The corresponding outlet glaciers, Pine Island Glacier (PIG) and Thwaites Glacier (TG), showed significant retreat during at least the last two decades. While other regions in Antarctica have the topographic...
Article
Full-text available
Both climate-change damages and climate-change mitigation will incur economic costs. While the risk of severe damages increases with the level of global warming (Allen et al., 2018; Dell et al., 2014; IPCC, 2014b; Lenton et al., 2008), mitigating costs increase steeply with more stringent warming limits (Allen et al., 2018; IPCC, 2014a; Rogelj et a...
Article
Full-text available
Over large coastal regions in Greenland and Antarctica the ice sheet calves directly into the ocean. In contrast to ice-shelf calving, an increase in cliff calving directly contributes to sea-level rise and a monotonously increasing calving rate with ice thickeness can constitute a self-amplifying ice loss mechanism that may significantly alter sea...
Article
Full-text available
Surface accumulation and sub-ice-shelf melting are key drivers for the flow dynamics of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and are most likely to change under future warming which leads to 1) higher snowfall and 2) stronger melting below ice shelves. Here we carry out conceptual simulations in which an equilibrium ice-sheet-shelf system is perturbed such that...
Article
Full-text available
A well-defined relationship between global mean sea-level rise and cumulative carbon emissions can be used to inform policy about emission limits to prevent dangerous and essentially permanent anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
Article
Full-text available
Increasing Earth’s surface air temperature yields an intensification of its hydrological cycle¹. As a consequence, the risk of river floods will increase regionally within the next two decades due to the atmospheric warming caused by past anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions2–4. The direct economic losses5,6 caused by these floods can yield regio...