
Anastassia MakarievaPetersburg Nuclear Physics Institute | PNPI · Division of Theoretical Physics
Anastassia Makarieva
PhD
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Publications (123)
Goessling et al. (1) link the record-breaking warming anomaly of 2023 to a global albedo decline due to reduced low-level cloud cover. What caused the reduction remains unclear. Goessling et al. considered several geophysical mechanisms, including ocean surface warming and declining aerosol emissions, but did not discuss the biosphere. We propose t...
It is shown that condensation and precipitation do not disturb the hydrostatic equilibrium if the local pressure sink (condensation rate expressed in pressure units) is proportional to the local pressure, with a proportionality coefficient $k$ that is independent of altitude. In the real atmosphere, condensation rate is controlled, among other fact...
While water lifting plays a recognized role in the global atmospheric power budget, estimates for this role in tropical cyclones vary from no effect to a major reduction in storm intensity. To better assess this impact, here we consider the work output of an infinitely narrow thermodynamic cycle with two streamlines connecting the top of the bounda...
The terrestrial water cycle links the soil and atmosphere moisture reservoirs through four fluxes: precipitation, evaporation, runoff, and atmospheric moisture convergence (net import of water vapor to balance runoff). Each of these processes is essential for sustaining human and ecosystem well‐being. Predicting how the water cycle responds to chan...
Emanuel’s concept of maximum potential intensity (E-PI) estimates the maximum velocity of tropical cyclones from environmental parameters assuming thermal wind (gradient-wind and hydrostatic balances) and slantwise neutrality in the free troposphere. E-PI’s key equation relates proportionally the radial gradients of saturated moist entropy and angu...
Along with the accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the loss of primary forests and other natural ecosystems is a major disruption of the Earth system causing global concern. Quantifying planetary warming from carbon emissions, global climate models highlight natural forests' high carbon storage potential supporting conservation policies. Ho...
Destabilization of the water cycle threatens human lives and livelihoods. Meanwhile our understanding of whether and how changes in vegetation cover could trigger transitions in moisture availability remains incomplete. This challenge calls for better evidence as well as for the theoretical concepts to describe it. Here we briefly summarize the the...
Emanuel's concept of maximum potential intensity (E-PI) estimates the maximum velocity of tropical cyclones from environmental parameters assuming hydrostatic and gradient-wind balances in the free troposphere. At the point of maximum tangential wind, E-PI's key equation relates proportionally the centrifugal acceleration (squared maximum velocity...
The terrestrial water cycle links the soil and atmosphere moisture reservoirs through four fluxes: precipitation, evaporation, runoff, and atmospheric moisture convergence (net import of water vapor to balance runoff). Each of these processes is essential for human and ecosystem well-being. Predicting how the water cycle responds to changes in vege...
The terrestrial water cycle links the soil and atmosphere moisture reservoirs through four fluxes: precipitation, evaporation, runoff and atmospheric moisture convergence. Each of these fluxes is essential for human and ecosystem well-being. However, predicting how the water cycle responds to changes in vegetation cover, remains a challenge (Lawren...
There are two contrasting views on life and Earth’s habitability. One view is that the program of environmental regulation by life cannot exist, because it is genetically unstable. A program of “common environmental good” cannot be stabilized by natural selection and would have been disrupted by selfish mutants. The ever-changing Earth’s environmen...
What do basic notions in systems and ecology mean? Several papers in this book propose specific ways of viewing systems (in particular ecological systems) and offer definitions and notions related to their proposed views. These often very compact “conceptual models” aim at providing a means to understand the behavior and evolution of real-world sys...
Destabilization of the water cycle threatens human lives and livelihoods. Meanwhile our understanding of whether and how changes in vegetation cover could trigger abrupt transitions in moisture regimes remains incomplete. This challenge calls for better evidence as well as for the theoretical concepts to describe it. Here we briefly summarise the t...
While water lifting plays a recognized role in the global atmospheric power budget, estimates for this role in tropical cyclones vary from zero to a major reduction in storm intensity. To assess its impact, here we consider work output of an infinitely narrow thermodynamic cycle with two adiabats connecting the top of the boundary layer in the vici...
Emanuel's Maximum Potential Intensity (E-PI) derives the maximum velocity of tropical cyclones from environmental parameters based on distinct sets of assumptions applied to the upper atmosphere, the boundary layer and the air-sea interface. At the top of the boundary layer at the radius of maximum wind E-PI relates the centrifugal acceleration (sq...
In this work, in the light of the latest scientific data, multiple aspects of the regulatory influence of forest ecosystems on climate are considered from the standpoint of the concept of biotic regulation of the environment: carbon absorption in the biomass of trees and soil, regulation of local temperature regime through the transpiration and ref...
In a recent paper Rousseau-Rizzi and Emanuel (2019) presented a derivation of an upper limit on maximum hurricane velocity at the ocean surface. This derivation was based on a consideration of an infinitely narrow (differential) Carnot cycle with the warmer isotherm at the point of the maximum wind velocity. Here we show that this derivation neglec...
As humanity struggles to find a path to resilience amidst global change vagaries, understanding organizing principles of living systems as the pillar for human existence is rapidly growing in importance. However, finding quantitative definitions for order, complexity, information and functionality of living systems remains a challenge. Here, we rev...
Jaramillo et al. (2018) (hereafter JMR1) asserted that our theory, henceforth known as CIAD (condensation-induced atmospheric dynamics), modifies the equation of vertical motion in a manner that violates Newton's third law. Jaramillo et al. (2019) (hereafter JMR2) have subsequently conceded that this is not the case. This would have resolved the or...
In a recent paper Rousseau-Rizzi and Emanuel (2019) presented a derivation of an upper limit on maximum hurricane velocity at the surface. This derivation was based on a consideration of an infinitely narrow (differential) Carnot cycle with the warmer isotherm at the point of the maximum wind velocity. Here we show that this derivation neglected a...
Principles of stable ecosystem organization are considered together with the role of abundant space, matter and energy in its maintenance. Life features the dichotomy of immotile organisms like plants, fungi, bacteria , on the one hand, versus organisms capable of active locomotion (animals) on the other. The immotile life can form a continuous liv...
Correspondence to: A. M. Makarieva (ammakarieva@gmail.com) Key Points:-Neglecting kinetic energy in the outflow results in Emanuel's Potential Intensity, here re-derived, underpredicting storm's maximum velocity-A revised maximum velocity estimate is shown to depend on oceanic latent heat flux only, independent of sensible heat or dissipative heati...
Principles of stable ecosystem organization are considered together with the role of abundant space, matter and energy in its maintenance. Life features the dichotomy of immotile (sessile, sedentary) organisms like plants, fungi, bacteria, on the one hand, versus organisms capable of active locomotion (animals) on the other. The immotile life can f...
We welcome the attention given to forest and trees by the Report “The global tree restoration potential” (5 July, p. 76), in which J.-F. Bastin et al. study the potential of tree cover to reduce climate change. However, we are concerned by their neglect of the water cycle.
Jaramillo et al. (2018) (hereafter JMR1) stated that CIAD (condensation-induced atmospheric dynamics) modifies the equation of vertical motion in a manner that violates Newton's third law. Jaramillo et al. (2019) (hereafter JMR2) have subsequently conceded that on the contrary CIAD does not modify the equation of vertical motion. This could be seen...
Here we respond to Jaramillo et al.’s recent critique of condensation-induced atmospheric dynamics (CIAD). We show that CIAD is consistent with Newton’s laws while Jaramillo et al.’s analysis is invalid. To address implied objections, we explain our different formulations of “evaporative force.” The essential concept of CIAD is condensation’s role...
The genetic program maintaining life's complexity is written in the four-letter molecular alphabet in quantum DNA macromolecules. When the new generations of living beings are produced, the DNA-based program is copied with quantum errors: i.e., in a characteristic time period (the half life time) one half of the copied programs remain error-free an...
Spatial localization and velocity are observable characteristics of mass objects. Time is defined as the ratio of distance to velocity. Such a definition of time allows the possibility of time reversal (isotropy) similarly to the isotropy of space under mirror reflection. However, the possibility of time reversal contradicts observations. Here we i...
The concept of Maximum Potential Intensity (PI) relates the maximum velocity of tropical storms to environmental parameters. Since its original formulation by Emanuel (1986), two major modifications were made resulting in a considerable range of predicted PI values. First, dissipative heating was suggested to increase maximum velocity by up to 20%....
Our comments on paper "Is Condensation-Induced Atmospheric Dynamics a New Theory of the Origin of the Winds?" by A. Jaramillo, O. J. Mesa, and D. J. Raymond published in J. Atmos. Sci. 75, 3305 (2018).
The concept of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) is widely used in tropical cyclone research to estimate the minimum central pressure and the maximum velocity of tropical storms from environmental parameters. The MPI pressure derives from consideration of an idealized thermodynamic cycle, while the MPI velocity additionally requires information abo...
How phase transitions affect the motion of moist atmospheric air remains controversial. In the early 2000s two distinct differential equations of motion were proposed. Besides their contrasting formulations for the acceleration of condensate, the equations differ concerning the presence/absence of a term equal to the rate of phase transitions multi...
Despite the dangers associated with tropical cyclones and their rainfall, the origin of the moisture in these storms, which include destructive hurricanes and typhoons, remains surprisingly uncertain. Existing studies have focused on the region 40–400 km from the cyclone center. It is known that the rainfall within this area cannot be explained by...
The power of atmospheric circulation is a key measure of the Earth's climate system. The mismatch between predictions and observations under a warming climate calls for a reassessment of how atmospheric power W is defined, estimated and constrained. Here we review published formulations for W and show how they differ when applied to a moist atmosph...
The pattern and size of the Earth's atmospheric circulation cells determine regional climates and challenge theorists. Here the authors present a theoretical framework that relates the size of meridional cells to the kinetic energy generation within them. Circulation cells are considered as heat engines (or heat pumps) driven by surface gradients o...
On the occasion of the Year of Ecology 2017 in Russia.
Authors’ translation of “Makarieva A.M., Gorshkov V.G., Startsev A.A. (2017) New goals for
fundamental science. Energy: Economics, Technology, Ecology, 11(2017), 2-13. [in Russian]”
Tropical cyclones are fueled by water vapor. Here we estimate the oceanic evaporation within an Atlantic hurricane to be less than one sixth of the total moisture flux precipitating over the same area. So how does the hurricane get the remaining water vapor? Our analysis of TRMM rainfall, MERRA atmospheric moisture and hurricane translation velocit...
Starting from the definition of mechanical work for an ideal gas, we present a novel derivation linking global wind power to measurable atmospheric parameters. The resulting expression distinguishes three components: the kinetic power associated with horizontal motion, the kinetic power associated with vertical motion and the gravitational power of...
The power of atmospheric circulation is a key measure of the Earth's climate system. The mismatch between predictions and observations under a warming climate calls for a reassessment of how atmospheric power $W$ is defined, estimated and constrained. Here we review published formulations for $W$ and show how they differ when applied to a moist atm...
It is no secret that the world is urbanizing very fast. If UN estimates turn out to be true, by midcentury 2.5 billion people will have joined the approximately 3.9 billion living in cities today, an urban population increase of over 60 %! It is one of the biggest questions of our time, how the 6.4 billion who will live in cities by 2050 will be fe...
It is shown that recent data on gravitational power of precipitation in hurricanes agree with the theoretical relationships previously obtained for the dynamic power of hurricanes driven by condensation of atmospheric water vapor. Total power of the hurricane derived from water vapor condensation is equal to the sum of wind power and gravitational...
T Bayr and D Dommenget [J. Climate 26 (2013) 1387] proposed a model of
temperature-driven air redistribution to quantify the ratio between changes of
sea level pressure $p_s$ and mean tropospheric temperature $T_a$ in the
tropics. This model assumes that the height of the tropical troposphere is
isobaric. Here problems with this model are identifie...
The gross spatial features of the atmospheric kinetic energy budget are
analytically investigated. Kinetic energy generation is evaluated in a
hydrostatic atmosphere where the axisymmetric circulation cells are represented
by Carnot cycles. The condition that kinetic energy generation is positive in
the lower atmosphere is shown to limit the polewa...
We analyze the determinants of the power output of moist atmospheric air. It
is shown to be represented as a sum of terms with different physical meanings
and uncertainties. We demonstrate that using a thermodynamic approach to
constrain the global power output as a whole, e.g. by considering the entropy
budget (Lalibert\'e et al., 2015), results i...
While surface temperature gradients have been highlighted as drivers of
low-level atmospheric circulation, the underlying physical mechanisms remain
unclear. Lindzen and Nigam (1987) noted that sea level pressure (SLP) gradients
are proportional to surface temperature gradients if isobaric height (the
height where pressure does not vary in the hori...
The effects of forests on weather are generally viewed solely in terms of moisture recycling. That is, evaporation from forest returns moisture to the atmosphere where it can increase local rain. In our new paper, using a recent study as an example, we discuss deficiencies in this perspective. Among other things, we argue that the existing global c...
From the condition of hydrostatic equilibrium and energy conservation a general expression is derived for the power of air circulation induced by water vapor condensation in the presence of a horizontal gradient of temperature. It is shown that the obtained expression for circulation power agrees with the continuity equation. The impact of droplets...
The physical equations determining the motion of moist atmospheric air in the
presence of condensation remain controversial. Two distinct formulations have
been proposed, published and cited. The equation of Bannon [2002, J. Atmos.
Sci. 59: 1967--1982] includes a term for a "reactive motion" that arises when
water vapor condenses and droplets begin...
The influence of forest loss on rainfall remains poorly understood.
Addressing this challenge Spracklen et al. recently presented a pan-tropical
study of rainfall and land-cover that showed that satellite-derived rainfall
measures were positively correlated with the degree to which model-derived air
trajectories had been exposed to forest cover. Th...
Phase transitions of atmospheric water play a ubiquitous role in the Earth's climate system, but their direct impact on atmospheric dynamics has escaped wide attention. Here we examine and advance a theory as to how condensation influences atmospheric pressure through the mass removal of water from the gas phase with a simultaneous account of the l...
Bannon (2002, J. Atmos. Sci. 59: 1967-1982) developed equations governing the
motion of moist air. These equations include a term for a "reactive motion"
that arises when water vapor condenses and droplets begin to fall; according to
this term the remaining gas moves upwards so as to conserve momentum. Here we
show that this reactive motion is base...
Precipitation generates small-scale turbulent air flows the energy of which
ultimately dissipates to heat. The power of this process has previously been
estimated to be around 2-4 W m-2 in the tropics: a value comparable in
magnitude to the dynamic power of the global circulation. Here we suggest that
this previous power estimate is approximately d...
Using the Bernoulli integral for air streamline with condensing water vapor a
stationary axisymmetric tornado circulation is described. The obtained profiles
of vertical, radial and tangential velocities are in agreement with
observations for the Mulhall tornado, world's largest on record and
longest-lived among the three tornadoes for which 3D vel...
Physical peculiarities of water vapor condensation under conditions of
hydrostatic equilibrium are considered. The power of stationary dynamic air
fluxes and the vertical temperature distribution caused by condensation on
large horizontal scales are estimated.
Using a robust global precipitation database, we analyze coast-to-interior seasonal precipitation distributions over the world’s major forest regions. We find that the active functioning of boreal forests in summer is associated with an intense ocean-to-land moisture transport, which declines in winter when forest functioning is minimal. This seaso...
The Bernoulli integral in the form of an algebraic equation is obtained for the hurricane air flow as the sum of the kinetic energy of wind and the condensational potential energy. With an account for the eye rotation energy and the decrease of angular momentum towards the hurricane center it is shown that the theoretical profiles of pressure and v...
Empirical evidence is presented which contradicts the established
interpretation of the intraspecific genetic variability as the adaptive
potential of the species: the uniform evolutionary tempo across the life
kingdom, species discreteness, and absence of correlation between genetic
variability and prosperity of extant species testify against the...
The commonly respected set of human rights includes the right for food and water, which are direct consequences of the biological
design of our species. However, as we argue, this list of inherent rights is not complete, as illustrated by the analysis
of ecological space scaling and social group size in other mammalian species. The size of individu...
The dissipative heat engine (DHE) is based on a Carnot cycle with external heat Qin received at temperature Ts and released at To < Ts. In contrast to the classical Carnot engine, mechanical work Ad in the DHE is not exported to external environment but dissipates to heat within the engine. Makarieva et al. (2010, hereafter MGLN) asserted that the...
The global environmental imperative demands urgent actions on ecological stabilization, yet the global scale of such actions is persistently insufficient. This calls for investigating why the world economy appears to be so fearful of any potential environmental expenditure. Using the formalism of Lyapunov potential function it is shown that the sta...
Phase transitions of atmospheric water play a ubiquitous role in the Earth's
climate system, but their direct impact on atmospheric dynamics has escaped
wide attention. Here we examine and advance a theory as to how condensation
influences atmospheric pressure through the mass removal of water from the gas
phase with a simultaneous account of the l...
Basic physical principles are considered that are responsible for the origin
of dynamic air flow upon condensation of water vapor, the partial pressure of
which represents a store of potential energy in the atmosphere of Earth.
Quantitative characteristics of such flow are presented for several spatial
scales. It is shown that maximum condensation-...
A heat engine operating on the basis of the Carnot cycle is considered, where the mechanical work performed is dissipated within the engine at the temperature of the warmer isotherm and the resulting heat is added to the engine together with an external heat input. The resulting work performed by the engine per cycle is increased at the expense of...
Intense condensation associated with high evaporation from natural forest cover maintains regions of low atmospheric pressure on land. This causes moist air to flow from ocean to land, which compensates the river runoff. Deforestation induces large-scale desiccation by disrupting this flow. Here we overview this theory and quantify the horizontal p...
A universal equation is obtained for air pressure and wind velocity in cyclones, hurricanes and tornadoes as dependent on the distance from the center of the considered wind pattern driven by water vapor condensation. The obtained theoretical estimates of the horizontal profiles of air pressure and wind velocity, eye and wind wall radius in hurrica...
We demonstrate that the model of energy allocation during ontogeny of Hou et al. (Reports, 31 October 2008, p. 736) fails to account for the observed elevation of metabolic rate in growing organisms compared with similarly sized adults of different species. The basic model assumptions of the three-quarter power scaling for resting metabolism and co...
Flux of oceanic moisture brought inland by winds has been conventionally considered as a geophysical parameter practically unaffected by vegetation; accordingly, models predict only slight post-deforestation precipitation reductions. Here we show that the dependence of annual precipitation on distance x from the ocean differs markedly between the w...
It is shown that condensation of water vapor produces dynamic instability of atmospheric air and induces air circulation that is characterized by observable air velocities and persists independently of the magnitude of horizontal temperature gradients.
Arising from: J. J. Head
Condensation removes water vapor molecules from the gas phase and reduces the weight of the air column. This disturbs hydrostatic equilibrium and makes air circulate under the action of the recently described evaporative force. Meesters, Dolman and Bruijnzeel (2009) criticized the physical bases of the new circulation driver with a major claim that...
Condensation removes water vapor molecules from the gas phase and reduces the weight of the air column. This disturbs hydrostatic equilibrium and makes air circulate under the action of the recently described evaporative force. Meesters, Dolman and Bruijnzeel (2009) criticized the physical bases of the new circulation driver with a major claim that...
How much and what kind of energy should the civilization consume, if one aims at preserving global stability of the environment and climate? Here we quantify and compare the major types of energy fluxes in the biosphere and civilization.It is shown that the environmental impact of the civilization consists, in terms of energy, of two major componen...