Ana Bastos

Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry Jena | BGC · Department of Biogeochemical Integration

In the last decade, Europe has been stricken by two outstanding heatwaves, the 2003 event in western Europe and the 2010 episode over Russia. Both events were characterized by record-breaking temperatures and widespread socio-economic impacts, including significant increments on human mortality, decreases in crop yields and in hydroelectric product...

Large-scale climate patterns control variability in the global carbon sink. In Europe, the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences vegetation activity, however the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern is known to modulate NAO strength and location. Using observation-driven and modelled data sets, we show that multi-annual variability patterns of European...

The year 2015 was, at the time, the warmest since 1880, and many regions in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) registered record breaking annual temperatures. Simultaneously, a remarkable and widespread growing season greening was observed over most of the NH in the record from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized differen...

The Global Carbon Budget 2018 (GCB2018) estimated by the atmospheric CO 2 growth rate, fossil fuel emissions, and modeled (bottom-up) land and ocean fluxes cannot be fully closed, leading to a "budget imbalance," highlighting uncertainties in GCB components. However, no systematic analysis has been performed on which regions or processes contribute...

In 2018 and 2019, central Europe was stricken by two consecutive extreme dry and hot summers (DH2018 and DH2019). The DH2018 had severe impacts on ecosystems and likely affected vegetation activity in the subsequent year, for example though depletion of carbon reserves or damage from drought. Such legacies from drought and heat stress can further i...

Enough of silos: develop a joint scientific agenda to understand the intertwined global crises of the Earth system. Enough of silos: develop a joint scientific agenda to understand the intertwined global crises of the Earth system.

Plant water stress occurs at the point when soil moisture (SM) limits transpiration, defining a critical SM threshold ( crit). Knowledge of the spatial distribution of  crit is crucial for future projections of climate and water resources. Here, we use global eddy covariance observations to quantify  crit and evaporative fraction (EF) regimes. T...

In the Amazon, deforestation and climate change lead to increased vulnerability to forest degradation, threatening its existing carbon stocks and its capacity as a carbon sink. We use satellite L‐Band Vegetation Optical Depth (L‐VOD) data that provide an integrated (top‐down) estimate of biomass carbon to track changes over 2011–2019. Because the s...

Accurate subseasonal weather forecasts, from 2 weeks up to a season, can help reduce costs and impacts related to weather and corresponding extremes. The quality of weather forecasts has improved considerably in recent decades as models represent more details of physical processes, and they benefit from assimilating comprehensive Earth observation...

Space-based Earth observation (EO), in the form of long-term climate data records, has been crucial in the monitoring and quantification of slow changes in the climate system—from accumulating greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, increasing surface temperatures, and melting sea-ice, glaciers and ice sheets, to rising sea-level. In addition to...

The Global Stocktake (GST), implemented by the Paris Agreement, requires rapid developments in the capabilities to quantify annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals consistently from the global to the national scale and improvements to national GHG inventories. In particular, new capabilities are needed for accurate attribution of sources...

Warming of northern high latitude regions (NHL, > 50 °N) has increased both photosynthesis and respiration which results in considerable uncertainty regarding the net carbon dioxide (CO2) balance of NHL ecosystems. Using estimates constrained from atmospheric observations from 1980 to 2017, we find that the increasing trends of net CO2 uptake in th...

Droughts affect terrestrial ecosystems directly and concurrently and can additionally induce lagged effects in subsequent seasons and years. Such legacy effects of drought on vegetation growth and state have been widely studied in tree ring records and satellite-based vegetation greenness, while legacies on ecosystem carbon fluxes are still poorly...

Wildfires are a serious threat to ecosystems and human. In Portugal, during 2017, a catastrophic fire season burned more than 500 000 hectares and caused the death of more than 100 people. Previous studies have shown that hot and dry fuel conditions promoted widespread propagation of wildfires. However, burned area (BA) and mega-fires, such as the...

Global warming is increasing due to the ongoing rise in atmospheric greenhouse gases, and has the potential to threaten humans and ecosystems severely. Carbon dioxide, the primary rising greenhouse gas, also enhances vegetation carbon uptake, partially offsetting emissions. The vegetation physiological response to rising carbon dioxide, through par...

Long, high-quality time series measurements of atmospheric greenhouse gases show interannual variability in the measured seasonal cycles. These changes can be analyzed to better understand the carbon cycle and the impact of climate drivers. However, nearly all discrete measurement records contain gaps and have noise due to the influence of local fl...

Less than half of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere to drive climate change. The rest is being removed by mysterious processes in the land, biosphere, and ocean.

Global fluctuations in annual land carbon uptake (NEEIAV) depend on water and temperature variability, yet debate remains about local and seasonal controls of the global dependences. Here, we quantify regional and seasonal contributions to the correlations of globally-averaged NEEIAV against terrestrial water storage (TWS) and temperature, and resp...

Fossil fuel combustion, land use change and other human activities have increased the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) abundance by about 50% since the beginning of the industrial age. The atmospheric CO2 growth rates would have been much larger if natural sinks in the land biosphere and ocean had not removed over half of this anthropogenic CO2. As...

Droughts cause serious environmental and societal impacts, often aggravated by simultaneously occurring heat waves. Climate and vegetation play key roles in the evolution of drought-associated temperature anomalies, but their relative importance is largely unknown. Here, we present the hottest temperature anomalies during drought in subhumid and tr...

Recent observations of elevated tree mortality following climate extremes, like heat and drought, raise concerns about climate change risks to global forest health. We currently lack both sufficient data and understanding to identify whether these observations represent a global trend toward increasing tree mortality. Here, we document events of su...

Droughts affect terrestrial ecosystems directly and concurrently, and can additionally induce lagged effects in subsequent seasons and years. Such legacy effects of drought on vegetation growth and state have been widely studied in tree-ring records and satellite-based vegetation greenness, while legacies on ecosystem carbon fluxes are still poorly...

Accurate subseasonal weather forecasts, from two weeks up to a season, can help reduce costs and impacts related to weather and corresponding extremes. The quality of weather forecasts has improved considerably in recent decades as models represent more details of physical processes, and they benefit from assimilating comprehensive Earth observatio...

In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, this study presents a comprehensive framework to process the results of an ensemble of atmospheric inversions in order to make their net ecosystem exchange (NEE) carbon dioxide (CO2) flux suitable for evaluating national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) submitted by cou...

One of the least understood temporal–scales of global carbon cycle (C–cycle) dynamics is its inter–annual variability (IAV). This variability is mainly driven by variations in the local climatic drivers of terrestrial ecosystem activity, which in turn are controlled by large–scale modes of atmospheric variability. Here, we quantify the fraction of...

Both low soil water content (SWC) and high atmospheric dryness (vapor pressure deficit, VPD) can negatively affect terrestrial gross primary production (GPP). The sensitivity of GPP to soil versus atmospheric dryness is difficult to disentangle, however, because of their covariation. Using global eddy-covariance observations, here we show that a de...

A new special collection in AGU journals will present findings from the Second REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP2) study with a decade of data on greenhouse gas growth.

Regional land carbon budgets provide insights into the spatial distribution of the land uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide and can be used to evaluate carbon cycle models and to define baselines for land-based additional mitigation efforts. The scientific community has been involved in providing observation-based estimates of regional carbon budg...

Key Points The impact of our journal is enhanced when a representative pool of contributors participates in the process of scientific publication Increasing reviewer and editor diversity is the best opportunity we have to remove bias from the peer review process Key priorities to expand and diversify our editorial, reviewing, and publishing communi...

Countries around the world are making ever stronger commitments to address human-induced climate change. The implementation of those commitments and their contributions to reach the Paris Agreement goal of balancing sources and removals of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are dependent on having comprehensive and reliable systems to monitor, report, and ver...

•Semiarid regions control a large fraction of the interannual variability in the global terrestrial CO2 sink and of atmospheric CO2 growth rate. •Semiarid ecosystems are characterized by recurring disturbances that alter the regional C budgets. As disturbances are expected to become more frequent or intense in the future, quantifying their contribu...

This chapter introduces greenhouse gas accounting activities that use “bottom-up” approaches. Bottom-up approaches can be categorized into inventory, bookkeeping, process-based modeling, and data-driven (i.e., remote sensing) methods. Activity data combined with emission factors, gain-loss, or stock-change analyses are the basis of each approach us...

Understanding the critical soil moisture (SM) threshold (θcrit) of plant water stress and land surface energy partitioning is a basis to evaluate drought impacts and improve models for predicting future ecosystem condition and climate. Quantifying the θcrit across biomes and climates is challenging because observations of surface energy fluxes and...

Siberia experienced an unprecedented strong and persistent heatwave in winter to spring of 2020. Using bottom-up and top-down approaches, we evaluated seasonal and annual CO2 fluxes of 2020 in the northern hemisphere (north of 30ºN), focusing on Siberia where the pronounced heatwave occurred. We found that over Siberia, CO2 respiration loss in resp...

Compound weather and climate events are combinations of climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Studying compound events often requires a multidisciplinary approach combining domain knowledge of the underlying processes with, for example, statistical methods and climate model outputs. Recently, to aid the d...

Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO 2 factors, a well-designed implem...

In 2018 and 2019, central Europe was affected by two consecutive extreme dry and hot summers (DH18 and DH19). The DH18 event had severe impacts on ecosystems and likely affected vegetation activity in the subsequent year, for example through depletion of carbon reserves or damage from drought. Such legacies from drought and heat stress can further...

Persistent hot and dry conditions play an important role in vegetation dynamics, being generally associated with reduced activity. In the Mediterranean region, ecosystems are adapted to such conditions. However, prolonged and intense heat and drought or the occurrence of compound hot and dry events may still have a negative impact on vegetation act...

Compound weather and climate events are combinations of climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Studying compound events often requires a multidisciplinary approach combining domain knowledge of the underlying processes with, for example, statistical methods and climate model outputs. Recently, to aid the d...

In support of the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement on Climate change, this study presents a comprehensive framework to process the results of atmospheric inversions in order to make them suitable for evaluating UNFCCC national inventories of land-use carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and removals, corresponding to the Land Use, Land Use Change...

Quantifying the anthropogenic fluxes of CO2 is important to understand the evolution of carbon sink capacities, on which the required strength of our mitigation efforts directly depends. For the historical period, the global carbon budget (GCB) can be compiled from observations and model simulations as is done annually in the Global Carbon Project'...

Surface carbon fluxes associated with terrestrial vegetation play a key role in the global carbon cycle. Remote sensing (RS) and land surface models (LSM) have demonstrated to be valuable tools in assessing the gross primary production (GPP). Yet, the seasonal variability of this flux, and timing of the seasonal cycle remain challenging to observe...

Aerosols have a dimming and cooling effect and change hydrological regimes, thus affecting carbon fluxes, which are sensitive to climate. Aerosols also scatter sunlight, which increases the fraction of diffuse radiation, increasing photosynthesis. There remains no clear conclusion whether the impact of aerosols on land carbon fluxes is larger throu...

Brazil is currently the largest contributor of land use and land cover change (LULCC) carbon dioxide net emissions worldwide, representing 17%–29% of the global total. There is, however, a lack of agreement among different methodologies on the magnitude and trends in LULCC emissions and their geographic distribution. Here we perform an evaluation o...

The carbon flux due to land-use and land-cover change (net LULCC flux) historically contributed to a large fraction of anthropogenic carbon emissions while at the same time being associated with large uncertainties. This study aims to compare the contribution of several sensitivities underlying the net LULCC flux by assessing their relative importa...

Fluxes from deforestation, changes in land cover, land use and management practices (FLUC for simplicity) contributed to approximately 14 % of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in 2009–2018. Estimating FLUC accurately in space and in time remains, however, challenging, due to multiple sources of uncertainty in the calculation of these fluxes. This uncert...

Amazonian evergreen forests show distinct canopy phenology and photosynthetic seasonality but the climatic triggers are not well understood. This imposes a challenge for modeling leaf phenology and photosynthesis seasonality in land surface models (LSMs) across Amazonian evergreen forest biome. On continental scale, we tested two climatic triggers...

Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic g...

Background The climate mitigation target of limiting the temperature increase below 2 °C above the pre-industrial levels requires the efforts from all countries. Tracking the trajectory of the land carbon sink efficiency is thus crucial to evaluate the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Here, we define the instantaneous land sink efficienc...

The 2015−2016 El Niño was one of the strongest on record, but its influence on the carbon balance is less clear. Using Northern Hemisphere atmospheric CO2 observations, we found both detrended atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) and CO2 seasonal‐cycle amplitude (SCA) of 2015−2016 were much higher than that of other El Niño events. The simultaneous hi...

Display for EGU2021: online discussion & abstract available at https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU21/EGU21-3258.html

Aim The carbon sink in tropical forests is a highly uncertain component of the global carbon budget. An understanding of the processes controlling this sink requires better quantification of carbon allocation, stocks and turnover times. Location Tropical forests. Time period 2010–2017. Major taxa studied Tropical forest ecosystem. Methods We de...

An analysis of experiments in which the air around terrestrial plants or plant communities was enriched with carbon dioxide reveals a coordination between the resulting changes in soil carbon stocks and above-ground plant biomass. A meta-analysis of terrestrial CO2-elevation experiments.