Amit Kanudia

KanORS-EMR · Energy Modeling Research and Analytics

This article presents a framework to capture intra-regional spatial variation of solar and wind resources’ potential for long-term energy system planning. Geographic Information System and statistical tools are utilized to quantify class and time slice wise capacity and generation potential at a geographical grid-cell level. This is incorporated in...

Coal-based thermal power plants (TPPs) are one of the major culprits contributing to the degrading ambient air quality globally. To address this issue, the Government of India revised the emission standards for coal TPPs in 2015. However, the high upfront cost for installing emission control technologies and ambiguity over their impact on electrici...

Reliable and stable power system operation requires flexibility, in addition to capacity adequacy. Traditional system components either have limited flexibility to suppress extensive system variation, or their role is limited due to lack of proper regulatory provisions and inefficient market design. Large-scale integration of renewable energy (RE)...

In 2015, CSIRO published the results of the first Australian National Outlook (ANO) project (CSIRO (2015) Australian National Outlook 2015: economic activity, resource use, environmental performance and living standards, 1970–2050. CSIRO, Australia). The project was a ‘first of its kind’ piece of integrated modelling aimed at a comprehensive explor...

Power system operational uncertainties of load fluctuation, and unplanned outage of generating units, or lines are normally handled by reserve generation or transmission capacity. The output of conventional generators is quite controllable, and load variation is predictable within a certain confidence limit. On the other hand, output of variable re...

In December 2015, the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC) notified emission standards for limiting Sulphur Oxides (SOx), Nitrogen Oxides (NOx), Particulate Matter (PM) and Mercury (Hg) emissions in coal-based Thermal Power Plants (TPPs). As of December 2017 (the deadline for meeting these standards), compliance was poor. Fur...

We use the flexible model coupling technology known as the bespoke framework generator to link established existing modules representing dynamics in the global economy (GEMINI_E3), the energy system (TIAM-WORLD), the global and regional climate system (MAGICC6, PLASIM-ENTS and ClimGEN), the agricultural system, the hydrological system and ecosystem...

The rise in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the resultant temperature anomaly in the global climate can be simplified to a function of (1) the global population, (2) economic activity and (3) technological development for thought experiments. Diet, given the embodied process emissions in producing food, is also acknowledged as an importa...

Australia’s high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per capita reflects its relatively high proportion of fossil fuels in energy consumed, high usage of less efficient private transport and high production of non-ferrous metals per capita. The dominance of coal-fired electricity generation masks Australia’s rich diversity of renewable energy resources....

This study placed improving quality of life at the centre of India’s national climate policy and asked what happens to greenhouse gas emissions with such an approach. In the lead up to the Paris climate agreement in 2015, countries determined their contributions based on their priorities, contexts, and capabilities and prepared their Intended Natio...

This paper provides projections of water withdrawals and consumption for electricity generation in India through 2050. Based on the results from five energy-economic modeling teams, the paper explores the implications of economic growth, power plant cooling policies, and electricity CO2 emissions reductions on water withdrawals and consumption. To...

Purpose Bioenergy is a key component of climate change mitigation strategies aiming at low stabilization. Its versatility and capacity to generate negative emissions when combined with carbon capture and storage add degrees of freedom to the timing of emission reductions. This paper aims to explore the robustness of a bioenergy-based mitigation st...

This paper presents results from a “modeler's choice” suite of runs that model the US Environmental Protection Agency's proposed Clean Power Plan (CPP) regulating carbon dioxide emissions from existing power plants under Section 111d of the Clean Air Act more closely than does the core EMF 31 Technology Performance Standard (TPS) case. While the TP...

In this paper we investigate energy supply investment requirements in Latin America until 2050 through a multi-model approach as jointly applied in the CLIMACAP-LAMP research project. We compare a business-as-usual scenario needed to satisfy anticipated future energy demand with a set of scenarios that aim to significantly reduce CO2 emissions in t...

We use the flexible model coupling technology known as the bespoke framework generator to link established existing modules representing dynamics in the global economy (GEMINI_E3), the energy system (TIAM-WORLD), the global and regional climate system (MAGICC6, PLASIM-ENTS and ClimGEN), the agricultural system, the hydrological system and ecosystem...

Electric vehicles (EVs) are considered alternatives to internal combustion engines due to their energy efficiency and contribution to CO2 mitigation. The adoption of EVs depends on consumer preferences, including cost, social status and driving habits, although it is agreed that current and expected costs play a major role. We use a partial equilib...

Much research is still needed to understand the climate vulnerability of the energy sector and to identify cost-­effective adaptation options. This chapter explores the coupling of the World TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM-­ WORLD) with an emulated version of the climate model PLASIM-­ENTS to assess the impacts of future temperature and pre...

Uncertain conditions may deeply affect the relevance of deterministic solutions proposed by optimization or equilibrium models as well as leave the decision maker in a quandary at the moment of defining policy. This chapter presents two applications of stochastic programming and robust optimization to climate and energy decisions using respectively...

This chapter describes highly detailed modeling of existing coal-fired units in the US power sector within the FACETS TIMES model. Such detailed modeling is necessary wherever the existing stock plays a key role in determining policy cost. The soon-to-be-implemented Mercury and Air Toxics (MATS) regulation imposes unit-level emissions rate constrai...

Energy modelling can provide a knowledge basis for tackling the security of energy supply issue at different geographical levels. This chapter presents an application of the coupling of the global TIMES Integrated Assessment Model and of the Pan European TIMES model through a series of trade links described and characterised in the REACCESS corrido...

In 2014, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) published a global renewable energy roadmap—called REmap 2030—to double the share of renewables in the global energy mix by 2030 compared to 2010 (IRENA, A Renewable Energy Roadmap, 2014a). A REmap tool was developed to facilitate a transparent and open framework to aggregate the national r...

In order to assess the cooperation between industrialized and developing countries in the design of a comprehensive worldwide climate policy to limit the global long-term temperature increase to 2°C, we developed an iterative procedure linking the global technology-rich optimization energy model TIAM-WORLD and the global general equilibrium model G...

This chapter deals with the problem of fair sharing of a safety cumulative emissions budget up to 2050. Using climate models one may infer the temperature change due to different possible emission pathways provided by world techno-economic models. The negotiations can concentrate then on the fair sharing of the resulting budget. We use two differen...

This paper presents a new U.S. multi-region energy systems model built in the TIMES modeling system: the Framework for Analysis of Climate-Energy-Technology Systems (FACETS). The model is designed to analyze energy technology options and policy scenarios across sectors and regions, including the increasingly important interactions between state, re...

Energy efficiency is one of the main options for mitigating climate change. An accurate representation of various mechanisms of energy efficiency is vital for the assessment of its realistic potential. Results of a questionnaire show that the EMF27 models collectively represent known channels of energy efficiency reasonably well, addressing issues...

Following a multi-scenario framework based on the technology assumptions proposed by the 27th Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-27), our analysis focuses on analyzing the impacts of key technology assumptions on climate policies, including the interdependencies of different technological options. Each scenario may be considered as either a possible state...

Many applications in the evaluation of climate impacts and environmental policy require detailed spatio-temporal projections of future climate. To capture feedbacks from impacted natural or socio-economic systems requires interactive two-way coupling, but this is generally computationally infeasible with even moderately complex general circulation...

This paper briefly illustrates a method to represent national energy systems and the geographical details of CCS infrastructures in the same technical-economic model. In the MARKAL-TIMES modeling framework a model of Morocco, Portugal and Spain with both spatial and temporal details has been implemented. As a function of assumptions on the developm...

The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) performed a large-scale model comparison exercise to illustrate different technology pathways for cutting European greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. Focusing on selected countries (France, Germany, Italy, Sweden and UK), this paper first analyzes climate and energy policy objectives and debates in the res...

The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) study systematically explores the energy system transition required to meet the European goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% by 2050. The 80% scenario is compared to a reference case that aims to achieve a 40% GHG reduction target. The paper investigates mitigation strategies beyond 2020 and t...

This paper examines how changes in an international climate regime would affect the European decarbonization strategy and costs through the mechanisms of trade, technology, and innovation. We present the results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) model comparison study on European climate policy to 2050. Moving from a no-policy scenario to an exi...

The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) study systematically explores the energy system transition required to meet the European goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% by 2050. The 80% scenario is compared to a reference case that aims to achieve a 40% GHG reduction target. The paper investigates mitigation strategies beyond 2020 and t...

In terms of energy resources, Canada is an important player on the world scene. However, the energy systems of the Canadian provinces and territories are much diversified and a national energy strategy is missing in order to optimize the management of energy systems. The objective of this paper is two-fold. First, we introduce TIMES-Canada, a new m...

Many applications in the evaluation of climate impacts and environmental policy require detailed spatio-temporal projections of future climate. To capture feedbacks from impacted natural or socio-economic systems requires interactive two-way coupling but this is generally computationally infeasible with even moderately complex general circulation m...

Purpose This article is based on the REACCESS research project, sponsored by the European Commission, with the objectives of evaluating the technical, economic, and environmental aspects of present and future energy corridors between the European countries (EU27) and their main energy suppliers. GCC countries have an important role to play given th...

The energy sector is not only a major contributor to greenhouse gases, it is also vulnerable to climate change and will have to adapt to future climate conditions. The objective of this study is to analyze the impacts of changes in future temperatures on the heating and cooling services of buildings and the resulting energy and macro-economic effec...

This paper explores the impacts of long-term technology and climate uncertainties on the optimal evolution of the World energy system. Stochastic programming with the TIAM-World model is used for a parametric analysis of hedging strategies, varying the probabilities associated to each of two contrasted technology outlooks. The parametric analysis c...

Energy supply routes to a given region are subject to random events, resulting in partial or total closure of a route (corridor). For instance: a pipeline may be subject to technical problems that reduce its capacity. Or, oil supply by tanker may be reduced for political reasons or because of equipment mishaps at the point of origin, or again by a...

There are several technoeconomic modeling approaches that provide quantitative results such as costs and the level of achievement of certain renewable energy (RE) policy targets. These approaches often do not consider other important factors for policy implementation (such as socio-political aspects and stakeholders' preferences). Recent multicrite...

Based on the European project RES2020, the analysis evaluates the energy strategies to be implemented in Spain in order to satisfy the EU Renewable Directive. The modelling framework relies on the technico-economic model TIMES-Spain, part of the Pan-European TIMES model used in the project. TIMES is a bottom-up technology rich optimisation model re...

This article analyzes the feasibility of attaining a variety of climate targets during the 21st century, under alternative cooperation regimes by groups of countries. Five climate targets of increasing severity are analyzed, following the EMF-22 experiment. Each target is attempted under two cooperation regimes, a First Best scenario where all coun...

The well-known method of stochastic programming in extensive form is used on the large scale, partial equilibrium, technology rich global 15-region TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (ETSAP-TIAM), to assess climate policies in a very uncertain world. The main uncertainties considered are those of the Climate Sensitivity parameter, and of the rate of...

This paper deals with an experience of cooperative research carried out in the context of EU Sixth Framework Programme's Integrated Project New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability (NEEDS, 2004-2008), and in particular in the research stream 2a 'Modelling internalisation strategies including scenario building', co-ordinated by the I...

Our objective is to propose permit allocation schemes that lead to a fair distribution of the net abatement cost among regions in a global greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization scenario. We use a detailed technology-based energy model, World-MARKAL, to determine efficient abatement decisions, and to calculate the regional gross abatement costs (before...

This paper deals with an experience of cooperative research carried out in the context of EU Sixth Framework Program’s Integrated Project NEEDS (2004-2008), and in particular in the research stream 2a “Modelling internalisation strategies including scenario building”, co-ordinated by the IMAA - CNR. The main objective of this work is to analyse sce...

In this article, we present the new multiregional global MARKAL-TIMES1 model and on several recent applications to global energy-environment issues. The development of the model was motivated by the need to analyze international energy and environmental issues such as climate change, using a detailed, technology rich modeling framework. We then pre...

Les textes publiés dans la série des rapports de recherche HEC n'engagent que la responsabilité de leurs auteurs. La publication de ces rapports de recherche bénéficie d'une subvention du Fonds québécois de la recherche sur la nature et les technologies.

The national process in Canada for greenhouse gas abatement selected contrasting models to estimate costs, providing a rare opportunity to assess the importance of methodological differences in cost estimates when other input assumptions are the same. MARKAL is a well-known optimization model of the energy-economy system; CIMS is a policy simulatio...

This article presents the case for a detailed regional analysis of the economic impacts of GHG control, via a set of inter-connected, long term, technology rich, integrated equilibrium models of the energy systems of the countries constituting a region of interest. The potential extension to global analysis is also examined. The article applies the...

Classical stochastic programming has already been used with large-scale LP models for long-term analysis of energy–environment systems. We propose a Minimax Regret formulation suitable for large-scale linear programming models. It has been experimentally verified that the minimax regret strategy depends only on the extremal scenarios and not on the...

This paper describes an advanced bottom-up approach for modelling the energy-environment sector to study greenhouse gas abatement. Three new features are described which give significant new capabilities to this class of models. These are: endogenization of end-use demands which allows computation of partial equilibria in energy markets; modelling...

Future patterns of climate change and economic growth are critical parameters in long-term energy planning. This paper describes a multi-stage stochastic programming approach to formulate a flexible energy plan. The plan incorporates multiple future scenarios and provides for mid-course corrections depending upon the actual realizations of future u...

This paper describes two variants of the Indian MARKAL model: a long-term technology oriented optimisation model for energy-environment planning for India. The first variant uses stochastic programming to include future uncertainties in the analysis. Details of model formulation, results and sensitivity analysis are described here. The second varia...

This paper reports on the use of an advanced multi-reg/ on, bottom-up model (Extended MARKAL) for an in-depth investigation of the responses by the Quebec-Ontario energy system to a series of increasingly severe greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets. For each target, the responses are analyzed under four policies resulting from the adopt...

A new version of the advanced multi-region World MARKAL model has been developed and calibrated to the A1B scenario of IPCC over a 50-year time horizon. The analysis of the base and CO2 constrained cases confirms and refines several conclusions observed by other models. Amongst them: a) the level of non-emitting electricity generation in the base c...

This paper presents an analysis of the optimal oil production quotas of OPEC under a worldwide climate regime imposing a limitation on the radiative forcing. The analysis is conducted using a multi-region detailed energy-economy-environment bottom-up model (TIAM) where the demand laws for oil and its substitutes are implicitly dened as the result o...