Amani Elobeid

Amani Elobeid
Iowa State University | ISU · Center for Agricultural and Rural Development

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91
Publications
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Publications

Publications (91)
Article
Latin America is a major agricultural producer with important natural resources. Efforts have been made to protect sensitive areas but are hindered by agricultural trade disruptions outside the control of individual countries due to globally integrated crop markets. This analysis assesses the effects of two trade shocks, that is, the war in Ukraine...
Article
Electrification of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet in the United States (U.S.) decreases the long-term demand for maize ethanol. This analysis assesses the consequences of accelerated penetration of electric vehicles into the U.S. LDV fleet on global food production, prices, land-use, and carbon emissions. Population and income growth are framed...
Article
Full-text available
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has destabilized global agricultural markets, triggering food price increases. We present scenarios of reduced exports and production affecting both countries that increase maize and wheat prices by up to 4.6% and 7.2%, respectively. Production expansion in other regions can partially compensate for export declines b...
Article
We calibrate the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development International Agricultural Commodity Market model using 2019/20 marketing year crop data and 2020 calendar year livestock and biofuel data to project China's agricultural imports under six plausible policy scenarios focusing on ethanol, corn, and pork from 2021 to 2030. Our baseline pro...
Article
Full-text available
Future agricultural production is influenced by climate change and changes in policies and behavior, such as the proliferation of battery electric vehicles (BEV). For the United States (U.S.), the influence of the latter is more pronounced due to the size of the U.S. biofuel industry. Using a global agricultural trade model and different climate ch...
Article
This analysis quantifies changesin global agricultural markets for maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat due to yield changes triggered by climate change. The scenarios include four representative concentration pathways (RCP), five global climate models, three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) capturing differences in population levels and economic g...
Article
Full-text available
China is a major importer of agricultural products and we examine retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on U.S. pork, soybeans, corn, and wheat. We use an agricultural trade model to determine the impacts on agricultural commodity markets and combine our results with an input‐output model to measure economic effects in the United States. In addition...
Article
There is increased interest in a carbon tax in the United States (U.S.) and policy makers, farmers, and other stakeholders need to understand the various economic and environmental aspects of such a policy on agriculture. A global agricultural simulation model assesses changes in production, commodity prices, and trade resulting from a U.S. carbon...
Article
Increasing biofuel production over the last decade and biofuel policies in Brazil, the European Union, and the United States have changed the global agricultural landscape in terms of land-use, commodity prices, and trade. Increasing fuel efficiency and electrification of the vehicle stock is projected to lower gasoline, diesel, and biofuel demand...
Article
We estimate emissions from indirect land‐use change associated with U.S. corn ethanol production by using the updated Center for Agricultural and Rural Development/Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute global agricultural outlook model, which incorporates sub‐national land‐use modeling in Brazil and endogenous crop yield‐price relationshi...
Article
Biochar has the potential to increase crop yields when applied to agricultural land. We integrate agronomic and economic simulation models to determine the expected yield increase from biochar applications in the United States. We calculate the location-specific willingness to pay of U.S. farmers to apply biochar to their cropland if biochar increa...
Article
The accelerated growth in biofuel markets has both created and reinforced linkages between agriculture and energy. The evolution of biofuel markets over the next 10-20 years and the implications for energy, agriculture and the environment are uncertain. Building on an integrated agricultural-energy modeling framework, this study analyzes a baseline...
Article
This paper presents a coupled modeling framework to capture the dynamic linkages between agricultural and energy markets that have been enhanced through the expansion of biofuel production, as well as the environmental impacts resulting from this expansion. The framework incorporates the interactions between agricultural and energy markets at the m...
Article
We analyze the various welfare costs, transfers, trade, and employment consequences of the current U.S. sugar program for U.S. consumers, other sugar users, sugar refiners, cane and beet growing and processing industries, other associated agricultural sectors, and world markets. The removal of the sugar program would increase U.S. consumers' welfar...
Article
Full-text available
Increased biofuel production has been associated with direct and indirect land-use change, changes in land management practices, and increased application of fertilizers and pesticides. This has resulted in negative environmental consequences in terms of increased carbon emissions, water quality, pollution, and sediment loads, which may offset the...
Article
Full-text available
F. Taheripour and W. E. Tyner use a multiregional computable general equilibrium model (GTAP-BIO), modified to include second-generation biofuels, to evaluate induced land use change (ILUC) emissions for alternative biofuel pathways in the United States. They calculate the ILUC emissions using four existing major emission factors and examine the un...
Article
Even with a normalized and standardized biofuel shock, the wide range of land-use change estimates and their associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have raised concern on the adequacy of existing agricultural models in this new area of analysis. In particular, reducing bias and improving precision of impact estimates are of primary concern to po...
Chapter
Full-text available
A spatially disaggregated model of Brazilian agriculture is used to assess the implications of global biofuel expansion on Brazilian land use at the regional level. After establishing a baseline, two scenarios are investigated. First, an exogenous increase in the global demand for biofuel is introduced into the model, and the impact is analyzed in...
Article
Full-text available
We couple a global agricultural production and trade model with a greenhouse gas model to assess leakage associated with modified beef production in the United States. The effects on emissions from agricultural production (i.e., methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock and crop management) as well as from land-use change, especially grazi...
Article
Full-text available
The tighter linkages between energy and crop markets due to recent climate and energy legislation in the US have large potential environmental impacts beyond carbon sequestration and climate mitigation. These range from effects on water quality and quantity, soil erosion, habitat and biodiversity preservation. These impacts are very location and ma...
Article
Full-text available
An agricultural projection and greenhouse gas model are used to assess the impact of global cropland expansion on carbon emissions and the sensitivity of those estimates to modifications in assumptions concerning idle cropland, the degree of refinement in carbon coefficients, market responses, and yield increase. The results indicate that the impac...
Article
A customized version of the deterministic Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) modeling system was used to assess the impacts of two alternative scenarios: (1) an increase in Canadian ethanol demand to 10% of domestic liquid fuel consumption by 2011 met through increased ethanol imports, and (2) the same increase in Canadian etha...
Article
Full-text available
This analysis uses the 2011 FAPRI-CARD (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute–Center for Agricultural and Rural Development) baseline to evaluate the impact of four alternative scenarios on U.S. and world agricultural markets, as well as on world fertilizer use and world agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. A key assumption in the 201...
Article
We use a spatially disaggregated model of Brazilian agriculture to assess the implications of global biofuel expansion on Brazilian land usage at the regional level. This Brazilian model is part of the FAPRI agricultural modeling system, a multimarket, multi-commodity international agricultural model, used to quantify the emergence of biofuels and...
Chapter
We summarize a large set of recent simulations and policy analyses based on FAPRI’s world multimarket, partial-equilibrium models. We first quantify and project the emergence of biofuel markets in US and world agriculture for the coming decade. Then, we perturb the models with incremental shocks in US and world ethanol consumption in deviation from...
Conference Paper
Biotechnology crop traits have been applied on a widespread commercial global basis since 1996, making it the most rapidly adopted crop technology in agriculture. The primary biotechnologies used have included technology delivering herbicide tolerance and insect resistance for crops, such as corn, soybeans, cotton, and canola. This technology has p...
Conference Paper
The emerging biofuel sector has drawn great interest as an alternative source of fuel for transportation. The expansion of biofuels greatly impacts world agricultural markets, since currently, the primary feedstocks for ethanol and biodiesel production are field crops and their derived products. There is great interest in the potential of countries...
Article
We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on world agriculture using the multimarket, multicommodity international FAPRI model. The model incorporates trade-offs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world prices and trade. We shock the model with exo...
Article
Full-text available
Biotech crops have now been grown commercially on a substantial global scale since 1996. This article examines the production effects of the technology and impacts on cereal and oilseed markets through the use of agricultural commodity models. It analyses the impacts on global production, consumption, trade, and prices in the soybean, canola, and c...
Article
Full-text available
Three recent reports have estimated the market impacts of domestic offset programs, including afforestation, contained in the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES). The magnitude of these estimated impacts motivates this study. We show that with carbon prices as low as $30 per metric ton, a significant number of U.S. crop acres would be use...
Article
Full-text available
This study examines the world market impact of an expansion in the biofuel sector in the European Union with particular focus on indirect land-use impacts. In the first scenario, an increase of 1 million tonnes oil equivalent (Mtoe) of wheat ethanol use in the European Union expands world land area used in agricultural commodity production by 366,0...
Article
Full-text available
This paper evaluates the land-use and greenhouse gas emission impact of higher yields in the European Union and a livestock tax in the United States using a global agricultural outlook model and a greenhouse gas model that includes land-use change from cropland and pasture. Both policies are intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing...
Article
The material contained herein is supplementary to the article named in the title and published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics.
Article
Projections of U.S. ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage, crop prices, livestock production and prices, trade, and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained. The projections were made using a multi-product, multi-country deterministic partial equilibrium model. T...
Article
The FAPRI 2008 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook presents projections of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade under average weather patterns, existing farm policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements and custom unions. The outlook uses a macroeconomic forecast developed by Global Insight.
Article
We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on U.S. and world agriculture for the coming decade using the multi-market multi-commodity international FAPRI model. The model incorporates the tradeoffs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world commodity...
Article
We analyze the impact of continuing the existing U.S. sugar program, replacing it with a standard program, and implementing the standard program with multilateral trade liberalization. Under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), duty-free sugar imports from Mexico could undermine the program's ability to operate on a “no-cost” basis to t...
Article
Full-text available
Most prior studies have found that substituting biofuels for gasoline will reduce greenhouse gases because biofuels sequester carbon through the growth of the feedstock. These analyses have failed to count the carbon emissions that occur as farmers worldwide respond to higher prices and convert forest and grassland to new cropland to replace the gr...
Article
We analyze the impact of trade liberalization and removal of the federal tax credit in the United States on ethanol markets using a multimarket international ethanol model. We find that U.S. trade barriers have been effective in protecting the ethanol industry. Under current policy, there is separability of the U.S. ethanol market from world market...
Article
We project U.S. ethanol production and its impact on planted acreage, crop prices, livestock production, trade, and retail food costs. The projections are made using a multicommodity, multicountry, partial equilibrium model. Results indicate that expanded U.S. ethanol production will cause long-run crop prices to increase. In response to higher fee...
Article
Projections of U.S. ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage, crop prices, livestock production and prices, trade, and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained. The projections were made using a multi-product, multi-country deterministic partial equilibrium model. T...
Article
Full-text available
We analyze the impact of continuing the existing US sugar program, replacing it with a standard program, and implementing the standard program with multilateral trade liberalization. Under NAFTA, duty-free sugar imports from Mexico could undermine the program’s ability to operate on a “no-cost” basis to US taxpayers as large public stocks of sugar...
Article
Interest in biorenewable fuels has dramatically increased over the past five years and has translated into tremendous investment in ethanol and other biofuel products worldwide. This has led to the energy sector becoming a crucial market for agricultural products, especially in Brazil and the United States. This interaction between the energy and a...
Article
The FAPRI 2007 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook presents projections of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade under average weather patterns, existing farm policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements and custom unions. The outlook uses a macroeconomic forecast developed by Global Insight.
Article
Projections of U.S. ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage, crop prices, livestock production and prices, trade, and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained. The projections were made using a multi-product, multi-country deterministic partial equilibrium model. T...
Article
This study analyzes the impact of price shocks in three input and output markets critical to ethanol: gasoline, corn, and sugar. We investigate the impact of these shocks on ethanol and related agricultural markets in the United States and Brazil. We find that the composition of a countryÂ’s vehicle fleet determines the direction of the response of...
Article
Full-text available
This paper examines the impact of ethanol expansion in the United States, brought about by higher crude oil prices, on agricultural commodity prices. Given the United States's stature as a major producer and exporter of many agricultural commodities, the resulting increase in commodity prices has spillover effects into the global market. Using the...
Article
The ongoing growth of corn-based ethanol production raises some fundamental questions about what impact continued growth will have on US and world agriculture. Estimates of the long-run potential for ethanol production can be made by calculating the corn price at which the incentive to expand ethanol production disappears. Under current ethanol tax...
Article
This study analyzes the impact of price shocks in three input and output markets critical to ethanol: gasoline, corn, and sugar. We investigate the impact of these shocks on ethanol and related agricultural markets in the United States and Brazil. We find that the composition of a country's vehicle fleet determines the direction of the response of...
Working Paper
The ongoing growth of corn-based ethanol production raises some fundamental questions about what impact continued growth will have on U.S. and world agriculture. Estimates of the long-run potential for ethanol production can be made by calculating the corn price at which the incentive to expand ethanol production disappears. Under current ethanol t...
Article
We analyze the impact of trade liberalization and removal of the federal tax credit in the United States on U.S. and Brazilian ethanol markets using a multi-market international ethanol model calibrated on 2005 market data and policies. The removal of trade distortions induces a 23.2 percent increase in the price of world ethanol on average between...
Article
Full-text available
We analyze the potential impact of continuing the existing U.S. sugar program, replacing it with a standard program, and implementing the standard program with multilateral trade liberalization. Under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), duty-free sugar imports from Mexico will undermine the program's ability to operate on a "no-cost" b...
Article
We analyse the impact of trade liberalisation, removal of production subsidies and elimination of consumption distortions in world sugar markets using a partial-equilibrium international sugar model calibrated on 2002 market data and current policies. The removal of trade distortions alone induces a 27% price increase while the removal of all trade...
Article
The FAPRI 2006 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook presents projections of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade under average weather patterns, existing farm policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements and custom unions. Despite continued high energy prices, world economic growth is expected to remain strong in th...
Article
Full-text available
We analyze the effects of the 2004 CAP reform and EU enlargement on European and world agricultural markets. We compare the results from a CAP reform only and a CAP reform plus enlargement scenarios to a no-enlargement baseline implementing Agenda 2000 CAP policies. We utilize the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute’s policy analysis...
Article
The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) analyzed the latest U.S. proposal to the Doha round of WTO negotiations (see Appendix 1, U.S. Proposal for WTO Agriculture Negotiations, USTR, October 10, 2005). While the U.S. proposal provides many concrete steps to reduce farm support and trade distortions, it does not provide all neces...
Article
We investigate the impacts of multilateral removal of all border taxes and farm programs and their distortions on developing economies, using a world agriculture partial equilibrium model. We quantify changes in prices, trade flows, and production locations. Border measures and farm programs both affect world trade, but trade barriers have the larg...
Article
The FAPRI 2005 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook presents final projections of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade. The projections assume average weather patterns, existing farm policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements and custom unions. Major drivers of the 2005 baseline include continuing strong economic...
Article
Full-text available
Following a historical agreement on the EU enlargement, 10 new member states (NMS) acceded to the European Union on May 1, 2004. Although the European Union has expanded its membership in the past, this enlargement is unique in terms of its scope and diversity of the countries, area, and population involved. Thus, the effects of the EU enlargement...
Article
Policy reforms in the EU require careful consideration because the EU is a significant player in international agricultural markets for many commodities. We analyze the effects on world agricultural markets of the 2003 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform and the accession of ten new member states (NMS) to the EU on May 1, 2004. Given past refor...
Article
We analyze the removal of current market interventions in world sugar markets using a partial-equilibrium international sugar model calibrated on 2002 market data and current policies. We analyze the impact of trade liberalization and the removal of production subsidies and consumption distortions. The removal of trade distortions alone induces a 2...
Article
The FAPRI 2004 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook presents final projections of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade. Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) projections assume average weather patterns worldwide, existing policy, policy commitments under current trade agreements, and new policy changes such as the...
Article
The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) provided a continuing mandate for progressive reforms to liberalize world agricultural markets. A new round of negotiation was put into motion in early 2000 and later formalized in what is now called the Doha Round. The Doha Round negotiation follows the same principle laid out in the URAA, with the...
Article
The FAPRI 2003 World Agricultural Outlook presents final projections of FAPRI's agricultural outlook on world agricultural production, consumption, and trade.
Article
Full-text available
Using the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) modeling system, we investigate the multilateral removal of border taxes and farm programs and their distortion of world agricultural markets. We find that agricultural and trade distortions have significant terms-of-trade effects. Terms-of-trade effects caused by trade barriers are...
Article
This chapter analyses linkages between growth, trade, and the environment in Vietnam using the empirical economy-wide model presented in Chapter 3. The investigation considers trade liberalisation and environmental policy reforms and their coordination. The analysis decomposes the change in pollution emission induced by changes in the sectoral comp...
Article
The FAPRI 2002 World Agricultural Outlook presents final projections of FAPRI's agricultural outlook on world agricultural production, consumption, and trade.
Article
At the 1996 World Food Summit, 186 countries made a commitment to reduce the number of chronically undernourished people by half by 2015. In order to formulate effective policies for reaching this goal, a thorough understanding of the location and causes of food insecurity is needed. This paper provides a broad overview of the current character of...
Article
This paper examines the payoff to U.S. biofuels research with specific allowance for the effects of federal policies that distort the markets for ethanol and the feedstocks used to produce it. Theoretical analysis indicates that biofuels research could be immiserizing, depending on the nature of the research- induced technological change, and how i...
Article
Full-text available
Biotech crops have now been grown commercially on a substantial global scale since 1996. This paper examines the production effects of the technology and impacts on cereal and oilseed markets through the use of agricultural commodity models. It analyses the impacts on global production, consumption, trade and prices in the soybean, canola and corn...
Article
Full-text available
We present a global agricultural greenhouse gas model that assesses emissions from land-use change. In addition to evaluating shifts in and out of crop production, we develop a pasture model to assess extensification and intensification of global livestock production based on herd size and stocking rate. We apply the model to a scenario that introd...