Alistair J. Hobday

Alistair J. Hobday
The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation | CSIRO · Division of Marine and Atmospheric Research

PhD, Scripps (USA)

About

437
Publications
203,469
Reads
How we measure 'reads'
A 'read' is counted each time someone views a publication summary (such as the title, abstract, and list of authors), clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the full-text. Learn more
23,211
Citations

Publications

Publications (437)
Article
Climatic extremes are becoming increasingly common against a background trend of global warming. In the oceans, marine heatwaves (MHWs)—discrete periods of anomalously warm water—have intensified and become more frequent over the past century, impacting the integrity of marine ecosystems globally. We review and synthesize current understanding of M...
Article
Full-text available
In this study, we train a convolutional neural network (CNN) model using a selection of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 and 6 models to investigate the predictability of the sea surface temperature (SST) variability off the Sumatra-Java coast in the tropical southeast Indian Ocean, the eastern pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole (I...
Article
Evidence-informed decision-making is in increasing demand given growing pressures on marine environments. A way to facilitate this is by knowledge exchange among marine scientists and decision-makers. While many barriers are reported in the literature, there are also examples whereby research has successfully informed marine decision-making (i.e.,...
Article
Full-text available
During 1982–2021, the highest sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Pacific was in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region, with more intense marine heatwaves (MHWs), especially during summertime. In this study, we explored the evolution and driving factors of the strongest summer MHWs based on their cumulative intensity usin...
Preprint
Ensemble models, statistical analysis and machine learning (ML) can be used to predict novel conditions in a rapidly changing ocean. Traditionally, ML has been understood as a purely data-driven approach. Recently, success has been reported in training ML on both observational and model data to forecast Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. Here...
Article
Climate change, overexploitation, pollution, and other pressures continue to degrade and threaten the marine environment and associated systems. Successfully managing and governing marine socioecological systems in light of these compounding pressures requires approaches that move beyond reactive and business-as-usual responses. Specifically, achie...
Article
The ever-increasing pressure on marine environments is leading to a growing demand for evidence-informed decision-making, which is supported via interactive knowledge exchange among marine researchers and decision-makers. While there is increasing guidance on how to undertake effective knowledge exchange at the interface of science and policy, ther...
Article
Full-text available
Knowledge of factors affecting a species' breeding biology is crucial to understanding how environmental variability impacts population trajectories and enables predictions on how species may respond to global change. The Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus, AUFS) represents the largest marine predator biomass in southeastern Aust...
Article
Full-text available
One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function,...
Article
Full-text available
Proactive and coordinated action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will be essential for achieving the healthy, resilient, safe, sustainably harvested and biodiverse ocean that the UN Decade of Ocean Science and sustainable development goals (SDGs) seek. Ocean-based mitigation actions could contribute 12% of the emissions reductions required...
Article
The climate-driven redistribution of fisheries species is altering their availability to fishers, necessitating projections of species redistributions that directly relate to future fishing opportunities. We propose that a valuable proxy for fishing opportunity is the proportion of the year that target species are available to fishers, which can be...
Article
Full-text available
Species redistributions are one of the most prevalent changes observed in oceans worldwide due to climate change. One of the major challenges is being able to predict temperature-driven changes to species interactions and the outcome of these changes for marine communities due to the complex nature of indirect effects. In the ocean-warming hotspot...
Article
Individual transferable quotas (ITQs) have been implemented in many fisheries in Australia and elsewhere, primarily in response to stock management challenges. However, unanticipated economic and social outcomes are also apparent, particularly for small-scale fishers. In December 2020, the Australian Senate initiated an Inquiry into the operations...
Article
Full-text available
Changing ocean conditions due to anthropogenic climate change, particularly the increasing severity and frequency of extreme events, are a growing concern for a range of marine sectors. Here we explore the global trends in marine heatwaves (MHWs), specifically onset and decline rates, two metrics which describe how quickly a MHW will emerge or disa...
Article
Full-text available
The pelagic fisheries beyond the continental shelves are currently managed with a range of tools largely based on regulating effort or target catch. These tools comprise both static and dynamic area‐based approaches to include gear limitations, closed areas and bycatch limits. There are increasing calls for additional area‐based interventions, part...
Article
Conservation programs are traditionally built on an understanding of the ecology and biology of the animal and plant species they aim to protect. They also frequently rely on the engagement of stakeholders to positively influence program outcomes. Trust and clear communication between the managers, decision-makers, and the different stakeholders is...
Article
Extreme climatic events, including marine heatwaves (MHWs), are altering ecosystems globally, often with profound socioeconomic impacts. We examine how MHWs have affected the provision of ecosystem services and evaluate the socioeconomic consequences for human society. Ecological impacts range from harmful algal blooms and mass mortality events to...
Article
Full-text available
The highly dynamic nature of the marine environment can have a substantial influence on the foraging behaviour and spatial distribution of marine predators, particularly in pelagic marine systems. However, knowledge of the susceptibility of benthic marine predators to environmental variability is limited. This study investigated the influence of lo...
Article
arising from n. Queiroz et al. Nature https://doi. Many shark species worldwide are vulnerable to overexploitation due to fishing. Using only the horizontal spatial overlap between the space use of 23 satellite-tracked shark species and the fishing distribution of pelagic longline fisheries tracked using an automatic identification system, Queiroz...
Article
Full-text available
When offshore oil and gas infrastructure is no longer needed, it is either removed, partially removed, left in place, or left in place but repurposed. These processes are collectively referred to as decommissioning. Australian legislation requires oil and gas companies to develop acceptable plans for the safe removal of all offshore infrastructure...
Article
Full-text available
Successful management and mitigation of marine challenges depends on cooperation and knowledge sharing which often occurs across culturally diverse geographic regions. Global ocean science collaboration is therefore essential for developing global solutions. Building effective global research networks that can enable collaboration also need to ensu...
Article
Full-text available
The authors are retracting this article [1] because of confidentiality reasons. The article has been removed to protect the privacy of an individual. All authors agree to this retraction.
Article
Full-text available
Climate adaptation is an emerging practice in biodiversity conservation, but little is known about the scope, scale, and effectiveness of implemented actions. Here, we review and synthesize published reports of climate adaptation interventions for iconic fauna. We present a systematic map of peer‐reviewed literature databases (Web of Science and Sc...
Article
Full-text available
At first glance, large-scale fisheries may seem adaptable to climate change. Adaptation takes place from the governance to the individual level of fishers. At the individual level, skippers make day-to-day decisions on where to fish and are at the forefront of the response to changes at sea. We seek to understand such individual adaptation in large...
Article
Full-text available
On the iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the cumulative impacts of tropical cyclones, marine heatwaves and regular outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS) have severely depleted coral cover. Climate change will further exacerbate this situation over the coming decades unless effective interventions are implemented. Evaluating the e...
Article
Full-text available
In recent decades, scientists and practitioners have increasingly focused on identifying and codifying the best ways to manage activities in marine systems, leading to the development and implementation of concepts such as the social-ecological systems approach, ecosystem-based management, integrated management, marine spatial planning, participato...
Article
Impacts of climate change are apparent in natural systems around the world. Many species are and will continue to struggle to persist in their current location as their preferred environment changes. Traditional conservation efforts aiming to prevent local extinctions have focused on two aspects that theoretically enhance genetic diversity - popula...
Article
Full-text available
Fisheries are under threat from climate change, with observed impacts greater in faster-warming regions. This research investigated current and future potential for climate adaptation to be integrated into fisheries management strategies using Tasmanian commercial wild-catch fisheries as a case study, and then identified obstacles and recommendatio...
Article
Full-text available
Many current marine conservation approaches do not adequately consider the diverse social elements and human aspects necessary to achieve conservation outcomes. The results of conservation research are therefore not always useful for conservation managers to apply in practice. To address this gap, this study combines qualitative methods and quantit...
Article
Full-text available
For Australian fisheries to remain productive and sustainable (environmentally and commercially), there is a need to incorporate climate change considerations into management and planning, and to implement planned climate adaptation options. Here, we determine the extent to which Australian state fisheries management documents consider issues relat...
Preprint
Full-text available
Spatial management through the implementation of marine protected areas is one strategy to limit the extraction of sensitive marine species. Understanding the area used by marine life is thus a key step towards the evaluation of the management framework and efficacy of a protected area. To provide information of the protective coverage of the Galap...
Article
Full-text available
In an ocean warming hotspot off south-east Australia, many species have expanded their ranges polewards, including the eastern rock lobster, Sagmariasus verreauxi. This species is likely extending its range via larval advection into Tasmanian coastal waters, which are occupied by the more commercially important southern rock lobster, Jasus edwardsi...
Article
Disruptions to global science networks have followed COVID-19 restrictions. Rather than wait for a return to normal, we propose four areas that can ensure a productive and collaborative future for marine science.
Article
Full-text available
Prolonged high-temperature extreme events in the ocean, marine heatwaves, can have severe and long-lasting impacts on marine ecosystems, fisheries and associated services. This study applies a marine heatwave framework to analyse a global sea surface temperature product and identify the most extreme events, based on their intensity, duration and sp...
Chapter
Full-text available
El Niño events were first perceived several centuries ago as a dramatic change in the marine resources along the Peruvian coast. It is now recognized as part of the world's largest natural climate fluctuation: the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). There is a rapidly growing body of scientific literature showing that ENSO has physical and ecologi...
Chapter
Full-text available
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can cause extremes in the ocean environment that have substantial impacts on marine ecosystems. In the shallow‐water/coastal marine environment, ENSO‐related extremes in sea level and seawater temperature have been found to impact coral, kelp, seagrass, and mangrove ecosystems. Coastal impacts from sea lev...
Article
Full-text available
Planning and management require expectations of future system behavior. These expectations can come in the form of predictions, projections, scenarios, narratives, visions and intuitions, at different spatial and temporal scales. While each can provide different insights into a system future, it is not clear how they can be effectively combined int...
Article
In a rapidly changing world, scientists and research institutions need to plan for the infrastructure, skills, and policy engagement that will help society navigate social-ecological challenges. Foresighting draws on approaches used in strategic and long-range (>10 years) planning and participatory futures studies. Here, we describe a new quantitat...
Article
Full-text available
Climate-driven trends in ocean temperature and primary productivity are projected to differ greatly across the globe, triggering variable levels of concern for marine biota and ecosystems. Quantifying these changes, and the complex ways in which resource-dependent communities will need to respond, is inherently difficult. Existing uncertainty about...
Article
Progress towards ecosystem-based fisheries management calls for useful tools to prioritize actions. To select suitable methods for local circumstances , evaluating approaches used in other jurisdictions can be a cost-effective first step. We tested Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA) to assess the potential vulnerability of the marine fish c...
Article
Full-text available
Understanding the factors which influence foraging behaviour and success in marine mammals is crucial to predicting how their populations may respond to environmental change. The Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus, AUFS) is a predominantly benthic forager on the shallow continental shelf of Bass Strait, and represents the greates...
Article
Full-text available
Climate-driven changes in ocean currents have facilitated the range extension of the long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii) from Australia’s mainland to eastern Tasmania over recent decades. Since its arrival, the destructive grazing of the urchin has led to widespread formation of sea urchin ‘barrens’. The loss of habitat, biodiversity...
Article
Ocean temperature variability is a fundamental component of the Earth's climate system, and extremes in this variability affect the health of marine ecosystems around the world. The study of marine heatwaves has emerged as a rapidly growing field of research, given notable extreme warm-water events that have occurred against a background trend of g...
Article
Beginning in February 2020, COVID-19-related stay at home orders and workplace shutdowns worldwide have disrupted personal and professional lives, including those of aquatic scientists. Manuscript submission and peer reviewing data from journals may be indicators of productivity impacts among aquatic scientists. We tested four null hypotheses: the...
Article
Full-text available
Climate‐driven species redistribution is pervasive and accelerating, yet the complex mechanisms at play remain poorly understood. The implications of large‐scale species redistribution for natural systems and human societies have resulted in a large number of studies exploring the effects on individual species and ecological communities worldwide....
Article
Full-text available
Aim Climate change has influenced the distribution and phenology of marine species, globally. However, knowledge of the impacts of climate change is lacking for many species that support valuable recreational fisheries. Cobia (Rachycentron canadum) are the target of an important recreational fishery along the U.S. east coast that is currently the s...
Article
Full-text available
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are prolonged extreme oceanic warm water events. They can have devastating impacts on marine ecosystems — for example, causing mass coral bleaching and substantial declines in kelp forests and seagrass meadows — with implications for the provision of ecological goods and services. Effective adaptation and mitigation efforts...
Article
Sustainability of fisheries extends beyond environmental aspects. Broad information is today sought for decision-making and by many stakeholders. Here, a framework recently developed to comprehensively report on sustainability issues relevant to fisheries, the Australian Fisheries Healthcheck, was used to compare five crustacean trawl fisheries fro...
Article
Risks to deepwater chondrichthyans (sharks, rays, and chimaeras) from fishing are poorly understood, particularly in areas beyond national jurisdiction. We adapted productivity-susceptibility analysis (PSA) and sustainability assessment for fishing effects (SAFE) to assess the vulnerability of 173 deepwater chondrichthyans to various demersal fishi...
Article
Full-text available
Planned adaptation to climate impacts and subsequent vulnerabilities will necessarily interact with autonomous responses enabled within existing fisheries management processes and initiated by the harvest and post-harvest components of fishing industries. Optimal adaptation options are those which enable negative effects to be mitigated and opportu...
Article
Full-text available
There is broad evidence of climate change causing shifts in fish distribution worldwide, but less is known about the response of fisheries to these changes. Responses to climate‐driven shifts in a fishery may be constrained by existing management or institutional arrangements and technological settings. In order to understand how fisheries are resp...
Article
Full-text available
In a rapidly changing world, scientists and research institutions need to plan for the infrastructure, skills, and policy engagement that will help society navigate social-ecological challenges. Foresighting draws on approaches used in strategic and long-range (>10 years) planning and participatory futures studies. Here, we describe a new quantitat...
Article
Full-text available
Fisheries and marine ecosystems are challenged globally by climate change with subsequent biological and socio-ecological implications. Adaptation represents one pathway by which management agencies can seek to ensure sustainability of these resources for societal well-being, particularly when based on strong scientific evidence. Here, we examined...