Alistair J. Hobday

The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation | CSIRO · Environment

For the Blue Foods economy—those sectors that gain value from the biological productivity of the oceans such as fisheries and aquaculture—climate shocks pose an existential threat. Species range shifts, harmful algal blooms, marine heatwaves, low oxygen events, coral bleaching, and hurricanes all present a serious economic risk to these industries,...

Human-induced climate change is a threat to marine species and ecosystems worldwide, including sea turtles. As climate changes are projected to intensify, directed management and intervention is required to safeguard the future of vulnerable species and ecosystems. Prioritisation tools that explore the cost-benefit-risk can help in the choice of in...

Quantifying the intra‐ and interindividual variation that exists within a population can provide meaningful insights into a population's vulnerability and response to rapid environmental change. We characterise the foraging behaviour of 308 trips taken by 96 shy albatross ( Thalassarche cauta ) from Albatross Island across seven consecutive years....

A marine heatwave (MHW) is typically defined as an anomalous warm event in the surface ocean, with wide-ranging impacts on marine and socio-economic systems. The surface warming associated with MHWs can penetrate into the deep ocean; however, the vertical structure of MHWs is poorly known in the global ocean. Here, we identify four main types of MH...

The Australian fur seal ( Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus , AUFS) population is still recovering from the over-exploitation of the commercial-sealing era (18 th and 19 th centuries). While the population is considered to be only < 47% of its pre-harvest size, it now represents the greatest resident marine predator biomass in the south-eastern Aust...

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of anomalously warm water associated with changes in ocean structure, based on the horizontal advection of water masses and atmospheric exchange of heat. The longest MHWs persist for many months and dramatic effects on marine life have been reported from around the world. As top-order predators, seabirds are part...

Following efforts from leading centres for climate forecasting, sustained routine operational near-term climate predictions (NTCP) are now produced that bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate change projections offering the prospect of seamless climate services. Though NTCP is a new area of climate science and active research is taki...

Ocean and climate drivers affect the distribution and abundance of marine life on a global scale. Marine ecological forecasting seeks to predict how living marine resources respond to physical variability and change, enabling proactive decision-making to support climate adaptation. However, the skill of ecological forecasts is constrained by the sk...

Australia’s fisheries have experience in responding individually to specific shocks to stock levels (for example, marine heatwaves, floods) and markets (for example, global financial crisis, food safety access barriers). The COVID-19 pandemic was, however, novel in triggering a series of systemic shocks and disruptions to the activities and operati...

Integrated management (IM) has been widely proposed, but difficult to achieve in practice, and there remains the need for evaluation of examples that illustrate the practical issues that contribute to IM success or failure. This paper synthesises experiences of academics and practitioners involved in seven Australian case studies in which there hav...

Changing ocean conditions due to anthropogenic climate change, particularly the increasing severity and frequency of extreme events, are a growing concern for a range of marine sectors. Here we explore the global trends in marine heatwaves (MHWs), specifically onset and decline rates, two metrics which describe how quickly a MHW will emerge or disa...

Climatic extremes are becoming increasingly common against a background trend of global warming. In the oceans, marine heatwaves (MHWs)—discrete periods of anomalously warm water—have intensified and become more frequent over the past century, impacting the integrity of marine ecosystems globally. We review and synthesize current understanding of M...

Oceans and coasts provide important ecosystem, livelihood, and cultural values to humans and the planet but face current and future compounding threats from anthropogenic activities associated with expanding populations and their use of and reliance on these environments. To respond to and mitigate these threats, there is a need to first systematic...

In times of rapid change and rising human pressures on marine systems, information about the future state of the ocean can provide decision-makers with time to avoid adverse impacts and maximise opportunities. An ecological forecast predicts changes in ecosystems and its components due to environmental forcing such as climate variability and change...

In this study, we train a convolutional neural network (CNN) model using a selection of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 and 6 models to investigate the predictability of the sea surface temperature (SST) variability off the Sumatra-Java coast in the tropical southeast Indian Ocean, the eastern pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole (I...

Evidence-informed decision-making is in increasing demand given growing pressures on marine environments. A way to facilitate this is by knowledge exchange among marine scientists and decision-makers. While many barriers are reported in the literature, there are also examples whereby research has successfully informed marine decision-making (i.e.,...

During 1982–2021, the highest sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Pacific was in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region, with more intense marine heatwaves (MHWs), especially during summertime. In this study, we explored the evolution and driving factors of the strongest summer MHWs based on their cumulative intensity usin...

Ensemble models, statistical analysis and machine learning (ML) can be used to predict novel conditions in a rapidly changing ocean. Traditionally, ML has been understood as a purely data-driven approach. Recently, success has been reported in training ML on both observational and model data to forecast Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. Here...

Climate change, overexploitation, pollution, and other pressures continue to degrade and threaten the marine environment and associated systems. Successfully managing and governing marine socioecological systems in light of these compounding pressures requires approaches that move beyond reactive and business-as-usual responses. Specifically, achie...

The ever-increasing pressure on marine environments is leading to a growing demand for evidence-informed decision-making, which is supported via interactive knowledge exchange among marine researchers and decision-makers. While there is increasing guidance on how to undertake effective knowledge exchange at the interface of science and policy, ther...

Knowledge of factors affecting a species' breeding biology is crucial to understanding how environmental variability impacts population trajectories and enables predictions on how species may respond to global change. The Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus, AUFS) represents the largest marine predator biomass in southeastern Aust...

Species redistributions are one of the most prevalent changes observed in oceans worldwide due to climate change. One of the major challenges is being able to predict temperature-driven changes to species interactions and the outcome of these changes for marine communities due to the complex nature of indirect effects. In the ocean-warming hotspot...

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function,...

Proactive and coordinated action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will be essential for achieving the healthy, resilient, safe, sustainably harvested and biodiverse ocean that the UN Decade of Ocean Science and sustainable development goals (SDGs) seek. Ocean-based mitigation actions could contribute 12% of the emissions reductions required...

Individual transferable quotas (ITQs) have been implemented in many fisheries in Australia and elsewhere, primarily in response to stock management challenges. However, unanticipated economic and social outcomes are also apparent, particularly for small-scale fishers. In December 2020, the Australian Senate initiated an Inquiry into the operations...

The climate-driven redistribution of fisheries species is altering their availability to fishers, necessitating projections of species redistributions that directly relate to future fishing opportunities. We propose that a valuable proxy for fishing opportunity is the proportion of the year that target species are available to fishers, which can be...

The Marine chapter of the state of the environment (SoE) report provides an overarching synthesis of the state and trend of Australia’s marine environment, key pressures on the environment, and the management structures that are in place to support the sustainability of the marine environment and marine industries. For the first time, it also aims...

Changing ocean conditions due to anthropogenic climate change, particularly the increasing severity and frequency of extreme events, are a growing concern for a range of marine sectors. Here we explore the global trends in marine heatwaves (MHWs), specifically onset and decline rates, two metrics which describe how quickly a MHW will emerge or disa...

The pelagic fisheries beyond the continental shelves are currently managed with a range of tools largely based on regulating effort or target catch. These tools comprise both static and dynamic area‐based approaches to include gear limitations, closed areas and bycatch limits. There are increasing calls for additional area‐based interventions, part...

Conservation programs are traditionally built on an understanding of the ecology and biology of the animal and plant species they aim to protect. They also frequently rely on the engagement of stakeholders to positively influence program outcomes. Trust and clear communication between the managers, decision-makers, and the different stakeholders is...

Extreme climatic events, including marine heatwaves (MHWs), are altering ecosystems globally, often with profound socioeconomic impacts. We examine how MHWs have affected the provision of ecosystem services and evaluate the socioeconomic consequences for human society. Ecological impacts range from harmful algal blooms and mass mortality events to...

The highly dynamic nature of the marine environment can have a substantial influence on the foraging behaviour and spatial distribution of marine predators, particularly in pelagic marine systems. However, knowledge of the susceptibility of benthic marine predators to environmental variability is limited. This study investigated the influence of lo...

arising from n. Queiroz et al. Nature https://doi. Many shark species worldwide are vulnerable to overexploitation due to fishing. Using only the horizontal spatial overlap between the space use of 23 satellite-tracked shark species and the fishing distribution of pelagic longline fisheries tracked using an automatic identification system, Queiroz...

When offshore oil and gas infrastructure is no longer needed, it is either removed, partially removed, left in place, or left in place but repurposed. These processes are collectively referred to as decommissioning. Australian legislation requires oil and gas companies to develop acceptable plans for the safe removal of all offshore infrastructure...

Many current marine conservation approaches do not adequately consider the diverse social elements and human aspects necessary to achieve conservation outcomes. The results of conservation research are therefore not always useful for conservation managers to apply in practice. To address this gap, this study combines qualitative methods and quantit...

Successful management and mitigation of marine challenges depends on cooperation and knowledge sharing which often occurs across culturally diverse geographic regions. Global ocean science collaboration is therefore essential for developing global solutions. Building effective global research networks that can enable collaboration also need to ensu...

Fisheries are under threat from climate change, with observed impacts greater in faster-warming regions. This research investigated current and future potential for climate adaptation to be integrated into fisheries management strategies using Tasmanian commercial wild-catch fisheries as a case study, and then identified obstacles and recommendatio...

The authors are retracting this article [1] because of confidentiality reasons. The article has been removed to protect the privacy of an individual. All authors agree to this retraction.

Climate adaptation is an emerging practice in biodiversity conservation, but little is known about the scope, scale, and effectiveness of implemented actions. Here, we review and synthesize published reports of climate adaptation interventions for iconic fauna. We present a systematic map of peer‐reviewed literature databases (Web of Science and Sc...

At first glance, large-scale fisheries may seem adaptable to climate change. Adaptation takes place from the governance to the individual level of fishers. At the individual level, skippers make day-to-day decisions on where to fish and are at the forefront of the response to changes at sea. We seek to understand such individual adaptation in large...

On the iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the cumulative impacts of tropical cyclones, marine heatwaves and regular outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS) have severely depleted coral cover. Climate change will further exacerbate this situation over the coming decades unless effective interventions are implemented. Evaluating the e...

In recent decades, scientists and practitioners have increasingly focused on identifying and codifying the best ways to manage activities in marine systems, leading to the development and implementation of concepts such as the social-ecological systems approach, ecosystem-based management, integrated management, marine spatial planning, participato...

Impacts of climate change are apparent in natural systems around the world. Many species are and will continue to struggle to persist in their current location as their preferred environment changes. Traditional conservation efforts aiming to prevent local extinctions have focused on two aspects that theoretically enhance genetic diversity - popula...

For Australian fisheries to remain productive and sustainable (environmentally and commercially), there is a need to incorporate climate change considerations into management and planning, and to implement planned climate adaptation options. Here, we determine the extent to which Australian state fisheries management documents consider issues relat...

Spatial management through the implementation of marine protected areas is one strategy to limit the extraction of sensitive marine species. Understanding the area used by marine life is thus a key step towards the evaluation of the management framework and efficacy of a protected area. To provide information of the protective coverage of the Galap...

In an ocean warming hotspot off south-east Australia, many species have expanded their ranges polewards, including the eastern rock lobster, Sagmariasus verreauxi. This species is likely extending its range via larval advection into Tasmanian coastal waters, which are occupied by the more commercially important southern rock lobster, Jasus edwardsi...

Disruptions to global science networks have followed COVID-19 restrictions. Rather than wait for a return to normal, we propose four areas that can ensure a productive and collaborative future for marine science.

Prolonged high-temperature extreme events in the ocean, marine heatwaves, can have severe and long-lasting impacts on marine ecosystems, fisheries and associated services. This study applies a marine heatwave framework to analyse a global sea surface temperature product and identify the most extreme events, based on their intensity, duration and sp...

El Niño events were first perceived several centuries ago as a dramatic change in the marine resources along the Peruvian coast. It is now recognized as part of the world's largest natural climate fluctuation: the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). There is a rapidly growing body of scientific literature showing that ENSO has physical and ecologi...

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can cause extremes in the ocean environment that have substantial impacts on marine ecosystems. In the shallow‐water/coastal marine environment, ENSO‐related extremes in sea level and seawater temperature have been found to impact coral, kelp, seagrass, and mangrove ecosystems. Coastal impacts from sea lev...

Planning and management require expectations of future system behavior. These expectations can come in the form of predictions, projections, scenarios, narratives, visions and intuitions, at different spatial and temporal scales. While each can provide different insights into a system future, it is not clear how they can be effectively combined int...

In a rapidly changing world, scientists and research institutions need to plan for the infrastructure, skills, and policy engagement that will help society navigate social-ecological challenges. Foresighting draws on approaches used in strategic and long-range (>10 years) planning and participatory futures studies. Here, we describe a new quantitat...

Climate-driven trends in ocean temperature and primary productivity are projected to differ greatly across the globe, triggering variable levels of concern for marine biota and ecosystems. Quantifying these changes, and the complex ways in which resource-dependent communities will need to respond, is inherently difficult. Existing uncertainty about...

Progress towards ecosystem-based fisheries management calls for useful tools to prioritize actions. To select suitable methods for local circumstances , evaluating approaches used in other jurisdictions can be a cost-effective first step. We tested Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA) to assess the potential vulnerability of the marine fish c...

Understanding the factors which influence foraging behaviour and success in marine mammals is crucial to predicting how their populations may respond to environmental change. The Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus, AUFS) is a predominantly benthic forager on the shallow continental shelf of Bass Strait, and represents the greates...

Climate-driven changes in ocean currents have facilitated the range extension of the long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii) from Australia’s mainland to eastern Tasmania over recent decades. Since its arrival, the destructive grazing of the urchin has led to widespread formation of sea urchin ‘barrens’. The loss of habitat, biodiversity...

Ocean temperature variability is a fundamental component of the Earth's climate system, and extremes in this variability affect the health of marine ecosystems around the world. The study of marine heatwaves has emerged as a rapidly growing field of research, given notable extreme warm-water events that have occurred against a background trend of g...

Beginning in February 2020, COVID-19-related stay at home orders and workplace shutdowns