Alison Johnston

University of St Andrews · School of Mathematics and Statistics

Citizen science data are increasingly making valuable contributions to ecological studies. However, many citizen science surveys are also designed to encourage wide participation and therefore the participants have a range of natural history expertise, leading to variation and potentially bias in the data. We assessed a recently proposed measure of...

Conservation prioritization requires knowledge about organism distribution and density. This information is often inferred from models that estimate the probability of species occurrence rather than from models that estimate species abundance, because abundance data are harder to obtain and model. However, occurrence and abundance may not display s...

Many emerging methods for ecological monitoring use passive monitoring techniques, which cannot always be used to identify the observed species with certainty. Digital aerial surveys of birds in marine areas are one such example of passive observation and they are increasingly being used to quantify the abundance and distribution of marine birds to...

*accepted article available on journal website but not yet formatted* The number of offshore wind farms is rapidly increasing as they are a critical part of many countries’ renewable energy strategies. Quantifying the likely impacts of these developments on wildlife is a fundamental part of the impact assessments, which are required in many regions...

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative driver...

The rise of passive acoustic monitoring and the rapid growth in large audio datasets is driving the development of analysis methods that allow ecological inferences to be drawn from acoustic data. Acoustic indices are currently one of the most widely applied tools in ecoacoustics. These numerical summaries of the sound energy contained in digital a...

An occupancy model makes use of data that are structured as sets of repeated visits to each of many sites, in order estimate the actual probability of occupancy (i.e., proportion of occupied sites) after correcting for imperfect detection using the information contained in the sets of repeated observations. We explore the conditions under which pre...

Citizen and community science datasets are typically collected using flexible protocols. These protocols enable large volumes of data to be collected globally every year; however, the consequence is that these protocols typically lack the structure necessary to maintain consistent sampling across years. This can result in complex and pronounced int...

Conservation of biodiversity relies heavily on protected areas but their role and effectiveness under warming climate is still debated. Here, we estimated the climate‐driven changes in the temperature niche compositions of bird communities inside and outside protected areas in southern Canada. We expected that communities inside protected areas inc...

Species' range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change st...

Passive acoustic monitoring has great potential as a cost-effective method for long-term biodiversity monitoring. However, to maximise its efficacy, standardisation of survey protocols is necessary to ensure data are comparable and permit reliable inferences. The aim of these guidelines is to outline a basic long-term acoustic monitoring protocol t...

Increasing attention has been drawn to the misuse of statistical methods over recent years, with particular concern about the prevalence of practices such as poor experimental design, cherry-picking and inadequate reporting. These failures are largely unintentional and no more common in ecology than in other scientific disciplines, with many of the...

Climate change alters ecological communities by affecting individual species and interactions between species. However, the impacts of climate change may be buffered by community diversity: diverse communities may be more resistant to climate-driven perturbations than simple communities. Here, we assess how diversity influences long-term thermal ni...

1. Citizen and community-science (CS) datasets have great potential for estimating interannual patterns of population change given the large volumes of data collected globally every year. Yet, the flexible protocols that enable many CS projects to collect large volumes of data typically lack the structure necessary to keep consistent sampling acros...

The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models (SDMs) to forecast future distributions. Under “space‐for‐time‐substitution”, the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space‐f...

Climate change alters ecological communities through effects on individual species and interactions between species. The impacts of climate change may be buffered by community diversity: diverse communities may be more resistant to climate-driven perturbations than simple communities. Here, we assess how diversity influences long-term thermal niche...

International policy is focused on increasing the proportion of the Earth’s surface that is protected for nature1,2. Although studies show that protected areas prevent habitat loss3–6, there is a lack of evidence for their effect on species’ populations: existing studies are at local scale or use simple designs that lack appropriate controls7–13. H...

Modelling the distribution of breeding birds for the Second European Breeding Bird Atlas (EBBA2), promoted by the European Bird Census Council (EBCC), was challenging and required the test and development of robust statistical procedures to provide accurate maps of species distribution. To de-velop the maps of EBBA2, we explored several modelling o...

Migration of wild birds, particularly waterfowl, constitutes one mechanism by which Avian influenza (AI) is spread geographically. Good quantitative measures of the seasonal distribution of waterfowl can be useful in predicting the potential spread of AI outbreaks. Here we present European-scale modelling results for five species of duck, five spec...

Artificial light at night (ALAN) is adversely affecting natural systems worldwide, including the disorienting influence of ALAN on nocturnally migrating birds. Understanding how ALAN trends are developing across spe-cies' seasonal distributions will inform mitigation efforts, such as Lights Out programs. Here, we intersect ALAN annual trend estimat...

There is increasing availability and use of unstructured and semi‐structured citizen science data in biodiversity research and conservation. This expansion of a rich source of ‘big data’ has sparked numerous research directions, driving the development of analytical approaches that account for the complex observation processes in these datasets. We...

Species-specific population estimates are fundamental for many aspects of ecology, evolution, and conservation, yet they are lacking for most species. Aiming to fill this gap, Callaghan et al. (1) estimated global bird population sizes by modeling the relationship between eBird reporting rates and independent estimates and extrapolating globally. W...

Aim Artificial light at night (ALAN) and roads are known threats to nocturnally migrating birds. How associations with ALAN and roads are defined in combination for these species at the population level across the full annual cycle has not been explored. Location Western Hemisphere. Methods We estimated range‐wide exposure, predictor importance a...

Aim Animal migration is often explained as the result of resource tracking in seasonally dynamic environments. Therefore, resource availability should influence both the distributions of migratory animals and their seasonal abundance. We examined the relationship between primary productivity and the spatio‐temporal distributions of migratory birds...

Species’ range shifts and local extinctions caused by global change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, elevation, and temperature gradients, can influence a community's ability to shift. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in global change studies, po...

Species’ range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change st...

Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDM...

Protected area networks facilitate community changes in responses to climate warming. However, the contribution of the site environmental and conservation-oriented characteristics to these responses to climate warming are not well understood. Here, we investigate how composition of non-breeding waterbird communities within the European Union Natura...

Accurate maps of species ranges are essential to inform conservation, but time-consuming to produce and update. Given the pace of change of knowledge about species distributions and shifts in ranges under climate change and land use, a need exists for timely mapping approaches that enable batch processing employing widely available data. We develop...

The Anthropocene is characterized by unparalleled human impact on other species, potentially ushering in the sixth mass extinction. Yet mitigation efforts remain hampered by limited information on the spatial patterns and intensity of the threats driving global biodiversity loss. Here we use expert-derived information from the International Union f...

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in extraordinary declines in human mobility, which, in turn, may affect wildlife. Using records of more than 4.3 million birds observed by volunteers from March to May 2017–2020 across Canada and the United States, we found that counts of 66 (80%) of 82 focal bird species changed in pandemic-altered areas, usually inc...

Protected areas are highly heterogeneous in their effectiveness at buffering human pressure, which may hamper their ability to conserve species highly sensitive to human activities. Here, we use 60 million bird observations from eBird to estimate the sensitivity to human pressure of each bird species breeding in the Americas. Concerningly, we find...

Aim Ecological data collected by the general public are valuable for addressing a wide range of ecological research and conservation planning, and there has been a rapid increase in the scope and volume of data available. However, data from eBird or other large‐scale projects with volunteer observers typically present several challenges that can im...

Anthropogenic climate change has affected the frequency and duration of extreme climate events, including extreme heat events (EHE) and extreme cold events (ECE). How the frequency and duration of both EHE and ECE have changed over time within both terrestrial and marine environments globally has not been fully explored. Here, we use detrended dail...

Climate warming is driving changes in species distributions, although many species show a so-called climatic debt, where their range shifts lag behind the fast shift in temperature isoclines. Protected areas (PAs) may impact the rate of distribution changes both positively and negatively. At the cold edges of species distributions, PAs can facilita...

Protected areas, the most prevalent international policy mechanism for biodiversity conservation, are highly heterogeneous in their effectiveness at buffering ecosystems and species' habitats from human pressure. Protected areas with intense human pressure cannot protect species that are highly sensitive to human activities. Here, we use 60 million...

Many species have advanced the timing of annual reproductive cycles in response to climatic warming, sometimes leading to asynchrony between trophic levels, with negative population consequences. Long‐distance migratory birds, reliant on short seasonal food pulses for breeding, are considered particularly susceptible to such disjunction because lat...

Global climate change is driving species' distributions towards the poles and mountain tops during both non‐breeding and breeding seasons, leading to changes in the composition of natural communities. However, the degree of season differences in climate‐driven community shifts has not been thoroughly investigated at large spatial scales. We compare...

The COVID-19 pandemic has likely affected natural systems around the world; the curtailment of human activity has also affected the collection of data needed to identify the indirect effects of this pandemic on natural systems. We describe how the outbreak of COVID-19 disease, and associated stay-at-home orders in four political regions, have affec...

Conservation efforts are constrained by our poor grasp of changing relationships between humans and other species. We used internet query data describing relative public interest in different species of birds, and combined them with citizen science data describing relative encounter rates with those same taxa, to gain perspective on shifting relati...

Significance Understanding the drivers of abundance and biodiversity decline across numerous taxa is imperative for designing conservation policy. We use highly detailed citizen science data to show that there is a strong, robust negative association between bird abundance and ambient ozone concentrations in the United States. In particular, we fin...

Humanity’s impact on the environment is increasing, as are strategies to conserve biodiversity, but a lack of understanding about how interventions affect ecological and conservation outcomes hampers decision-making. Time series are often used to assess impacts, but ecologists tend to compare average values from before to after an impact; overlooki...

Climate warming is driving changes in species distributions and community composition. Many species show a so-called climatic debt, where shifts in range have lagged behind faster shifts in temperature isoclines. Inside protected areas (PAs), community changes in response to climate warming can be facilitated by greater colonization rates by warm-d...

Roads and their traffic can affect wildlife over large areas and, in regions with dense road networks, may influence a high proportion of the ecological landscape. We assess the abundance of 75 bird species in relation to roads across Great Britain. Of these, 77% vary significantly in abundance with increasing road exposure, just over half negative...

Massive wildlife losses over the past 50 years have brought new urgency to identifying both the drivers of population decline and potential solutions. We provide the first large-scale evidence that air pollution, specifically ozone, is associated with declines in bird abundance in the United States. We show that an air pollution regulation limiting...

Conservationists increasingly use unstructured observational data, such as citizen science records or ranger patrol observations, to guide decision making. These datasets are often large and relatively cheap to collect, and they have enormous potential. However, the resulting data are generally “messy,” and their use can incur considerable costs, s...

The global road network, currently over 45 million lane‐km in length, is expected to reach 70 million lane‐km by 2050, while the number of vehicles utilizing it is expected to double. Roads have been shown to affect a range of wildlife, including birds, but most studies have been relatively small scale. We use data from across Great Britain to anal...

Ecological citizen science data are rapidly growing in availability and use in ecology and conservation. Many citizen science projects have the flexibility for participants to select where they survey, resulting in more participants, but also spatially biased data. It is important to assess the extent to which these spatially biased data can provid...

Background Global positioning systems (GPS) and altimeters are increasingly used to monitor vertical space use by aerial species, a key aspect of their ecological niche, that we need to know to manage our own use of the airspace, and to protect those species. However, there are various sources of error in flight height data (“height” above ground,...

Information on species' distributions, abundances, and how they change over time is central to the study of the ecology and conservation of animal populations. This information is challenging to obtain at landscape scales across range‐wide extents for two main reasons. First, landscape‐scale processes that affect populations vary throughout the yea...

Most spatial conservation planning for wide‐ranging or migratory species is constrained by poor knowledge of species’ spatio‐temporal dynamics and is only based upon static species’ ranges. However, species have substantial variation in abundance across their range and migratory species have important spatio‐temporal population dynamics. With growi...

Road ecology, the study of the impacts of roads and their traffic on wildlife, including birds, is a rapidly growing field, with research showing effects on local avian population densities up to several kilometres from a road. However, in most studies, the effects of roads on the detectability of birds by surveyors are not accounted for. This coul...

Species’ population trends are fundamental to conservation. They are used to determine the state of nature, and to prioritize species for conservation action, for example through the IUCN red list. It is crucial to be able to quantify the degree to which population trend data can be trusted, yet there is not currently a straightforward way to do so...

Background Global positioning systems (GPS) and altimeters are increasingly used to monitor vertical space use by aerial species, a key aspect of their niche that we need to know to understand their ecology and conservation needs, and to manage our own use of the airspace. However, there are various sources of error in flight height data (“height”...

Information on species’ distributions and abundances, and how these change over time are central to the study of the ecology and conservation of animal populations. This information is challenging to obtain at relevant scales across range-wide extents for two main reasons. First, local and regional processes that affect populations vary throughout...

Citizen science utilises public resources for scientific research. BirdTrack is such a project established in 2004 by the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO) for the public to log their bird observations through its web or mobile applications. It has accumulated over 40 million observations. However, the veracity of these observations needs to be c...

Significance Conservation of species is driven largely by human decisions, so it is important to understand how and why people value species differently. We combine information from Google searches with millions of bird observations to characterize public interest in North American birds. We describe different relationships between people and birds...

A recent paper claiming evidence of global insect declines achieved huge media attention, including claims of “insectaggedon” and a “collapse of nature.” Here, we argue that while many insects are declining in many places around the world, the study has important limitations that should be highlighted. We emphasise the robust evidence of large and...

Citizen science data are valuable for addressing a wide range of ecological research questions, and there has been a rapid increase in the scope and volume of data available. However, data from large-scale citizen science projects typically present a number of challenges that can inhibit robust ecological inferences. These challenges include: speci...

To better understand the ecological implications of global climate change for species that display geographically and seasonally dynamic life‐history strategies, we need to determine where and when novel climates are projected to first emerge. Here, we use a multivariate approach to estimate time of emergence (ToE) of novel climates based on three...

Biodiversity is being lost at an unprecedented rate, and monitoring is crucial for understanding the causal drivers and assessing solutions. Most biodiversity monitoring data are collected by volunteers through citizen science projects, and often crucial information is lacking to account for the inevitable biases that observers introduce during dat...