Alexey Voinov

University of Twente | UT · Faculty of Engineering Technology

In the Netherlands, where coastal lowlands are prevalent, sand nourishment and dune utilization play a central role in coastal management. While policies strive for multifunctionality, most coastal studies emphasize flood safety, often overlooking the importance of recreational functions and their interactions with flood protection measures. Our r...

In an era where climate change and energy security have become paramount concerns, community renewable energy (CRE) projects have emerged as an essential tool for engaging citizens in the transition to sustainable energy sources. Despite growing interest in CRE, limited research has been conducted to statistically understand the non-economic social...

The growing adoption of distributed energy production technologies and the potential for energy underutilisation when the energy is produced by non-connected groups has raised interest in developing ‘sharing economy’ concepts in the electricity sector. We suggest that mechanisms, such as peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading, will allow users to exchan...

The growing adoption of distributed energy production technologies, and the potential of energy underutilization when it is produced by non-connected groups, has raised interest in ‘sharing economy’ concepts in the electricity sector. We suggest that mechanisms, such as peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading, will allow users to exchange their surplus e...

Sandy Anthropogenic Shores (SAS) are coasts formed or heavily modified by moving large amounts of dredged sand from offshore towards the land. Subsequently, natural processes such as waves, wind, and currents are spreading the sand, where wind can transport sand into the foredune area and reinforce the foredune for long-term coastal safety. Besides...

Fires are an important aspect of environmental ecology; however, they are also one of the most widespread destructive forces impacting natural ecosystems as well as property, human health, water and other resources. Urban sprawl is driving the construction of new homes and facilities into fire-vulnerable areas. This growth, combined with a warmer c...

Problem structuring methods imply the involvement of stakeholders and aim to create a shared understanding of the problem and commitment among them. The process and outcomes of such interventions entirely depend on the stakeholder’s level of engagement and willingness to contribute to the discussion. Gamification, in its turn, has been extensively...

In a world impacted by disruptive events, the importance of incorporating resilience into supply chain design has become paramount. Especially, the risks associated with food supply chains can cause severe consequences directly impacting the health and well-being of societies. Though the Australian food supply chains are notably efficient and profi...

Building energy management, in terms of both adopted technologies and occupant consumption behaviour, is becoming an essential element of sustainability and climate change mitigation programs. The global COVID-19 pandemic and the consequential lockdowns and remote working had a notable impact on office building operations and provided a unique oppo...

Participatory modeling (PM) is a craft that is often learned by training ‘on the job’ and mastered through years of practice. There is little explicit knowledge available on identifying and documenting the skills needed to perform PM. In the modeling literature, existing attempts to identify relevant competencies have focused on the specific techni...

New digital ventures play a very important role in the creation of new products and services and are a major driver of current economies. At the same time, there is growing awareness about sustainability and more interest in transformation towards a more sustainable future. This raises the question about rational choices of digital entrepreneurs an...

Electric vehicles (EV) are a promising alternative for the current fossil-fuel-based vehicles. However, as of 2020, the share of EV sales was only 4.6% globally, and 1% in Australia. It is important to identify factors that promote or hinder consumer intentions of EV adoption. In addition, there are a few types of EVs, each with different advantage...

While agent-based modeling (ABM) has become one of the most powerful tools in quantitative social sciences, it remains difficult to explain their structure and performance. We propose to use artificial intelligence both to build the models from data, and to improve the way we communicate models to stakeholders. We use machine learning to facilitate...

In the efforts to ensure the health of the Australian population during the COVID pandemic, social, economic, and environmental aspects of people's life were impacted. In addressing the pandemic risks, a number of governments prioritized people's health and well-being over GDP growth. The Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) is used to account for fact...

Systems Intelligence (SI) can contribute to the design and practice of Participatory Modelling (PM) by paying attention to the interplay of the ‘soft’ socio-emotional system created by the actors involved and the dynamics created by their interactions and the ‘hard’ structure of the process. Here, we argue that by combining the perspective of SI wi...

Threats to sustainable food production are accelerating due to climate change, population growth, depletion of natural capital, and global market instability. This causes significant risks to farmers, consumers, and financial and policy institutions. Understanding agro-ecosystems, and how varying management styles can impact their performance is cr...

Sandy Anthropogenic Shores (SAS) are coasts formed by moving large amounts of dredged sand from offshore to near the coast, with natural processes such as waves, wind, and currents used to spread the sand and reinforce the foredune for coastal safety. At the same time, wider beaches and lagoon features provide new space for human activities and hab...

Coastal dunes play an essential role in defence against the sea in many countries, including the Netherlands. Sandy Anthropogenic Shores (SAS) is the recent nature-based human intervention for dune reinforcement. SAS are coastal zones (including shores, dunes, lagoons, etc.) that are created or heavily modified by moving large amounts of dredged sa...

The philosophy of building energy management is going through a paradigm change from traditional, often inefficient, user-controlled systems to one that is centrally automated with the aid of IoT-enabled technologies. In this context, occupants’ perceived control and building automation may seem to be in conflict. The inquiry of this study is roote...

Sustainability is a wicked problem, which is hard to define in a unique way. It cannot be solved and should be treated in a participatory approach involving as many stakeholders in the process as possible. Participatory modeling is an efficient method for dealing with wicked problems. It involves stakeholders in an open-ended process of shared lear...

In salt marshes, abiotic factors, interspecific competition or facilitation, and herbivory have been discussed extensively as important drivers of marsh plant distribution patterns. However, the relative importance of various regeneration processes across stress gradients received little attention, despite their importance in explaining plant commu...

The abstract is published in EURO 2021 ‘Conference Handbook and Abstracts’ with ISBN: 978-618-85079-1-3. Available here: http://files.convin.gr/various/EURO21-Conference_e-Handbook_Full_version.pdf

Consumer behavior is key in shifts towards organic products. A diversity of factors influences consumer preferences, driving planned, impulsive, and unplanned purchasing decisions. We study choices among organic and conventional wine using an extensive survey among Australian consumers (N = 1003). We integrate five behavioral theories in the survey...

Modeling is essential for modern science, and science-based policies are directly affected by the reliability of model outputs. Artificial intelligence has improved the accuracy and capability of model simulations, but often at the expense of a rational understanding of the systems involved. The lack of transparency in black box models, artificial...

Abstract The achievement of global sustainability agendas, such as the Sustainable Development Goals, relies on transformational change across society, economy, and environment that are co‐created in a transdisciplinary exercise by all stakeholders. Within this context, environmental and societal change is increasingly understood and represented vi...

In participatory modeling (PM), a conceptual model emerges from an exchange of information and opinions among stakeholders. This usually happens in a series of in-person workshops restricted to a certain number of attendees during designated time intervals. Our goal is to open up the PM workshop process to engage an unlimited number of participants...

System-of-systems approaches for integrated assessments have become prevalent in recent years. Such approaches integrate a variety of models from different disciplines and modeling paradigms to represent a socioenvironmental (or social-ecological) system aiming to holistically inform policy and decision-making processes. Central to the system-of-sy...

Computational social science has witnessed a shift from pure theoretical to empirical agent-based models (ABMs) grounded in data-driven correlations between behavioral factors defining agents' decisions. There is a strong urge to go beyond theoretical ABMs with behavioral theories setting stylized rules that guide agents' actions, especially when i...

Conventional biomass sources have been widely exploited for several end uses (mostly food, feed, fuel and chemicals). More unconventional sources are continually being sought for meeting the growing planetary demands for biomass materials. Biofuels are already commercially produced in many countries and are becoming mainstream. The role of biorefin...

Serious games and gamification are useful tools for learning and sustaining long-term engagement in the activities that are not meant to be entertaining. However, the application of game design in the participatory modeling context remains fragmented and mostly limited to user-friendly interfaces, storytelling, and visualization for better represen...

The concept of leadership is introduced into the context of participatory modelling. Different leadership paradigms are described. The role of the modeller and the question who should be assigned the leadership role is analyzed. The leadership and management perspectives are compared. The leadership function assumes seeing the big picture and setti...

Organic food has important environmental and health benefits, decreasing the toxicity of agricultural production, improving soil quality, and overall resilience of farming. Increasing consumers’ demand for organic food reinforces the rate of organic farming adoption and the level of farmers' risk acceptance. Despite the recorded 20% growth in organ...

Integrated geographic modelling and simulation is a computational means to improve understanding of the environment. With the development of Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) and web technologies, it is possible to conduct open, extensible integrated geographic modelling across a network in which resources can be accessed and integrated, and furt...

The current intense food production-consumption is one of the main sources of environmental pollution and contributes to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Organic farming is a potential way to reduce environmental impacts by excluding synthetic pesticides and fertilizers from the process. Despite ecological benefits, it is unlikely that conve...

Households are responsible for 70% of CO 2 emissions (directly and indirectly). While households as agents of change increasingly become a crucial element in energy transitions, bottom-up mechanisms facilitating beha-vioral change are not fully understood. A scientific understanding of individual energy use, requires eliciting factors that trigger...

In the last decade, instigated by the Paris agreement and United Nations Climate Change Conferences (COP22 and COP23), the efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels are expanding. The required reductions in greenhouse gas emissions imply a massive decarbonization worldwide with much involvement of regions, cities,...

How behavioral scientists, engineers, and architects can work together to advance how we all understand and practice design-in order to enhance sustainability in the built environment, and beyond.

Serious games and gamification tools have gradually expanded their application in participatory settings, while already being widely used in the context of sustainable development in general. Their popularity is explained by their ability to create an engaging and experimental environment, which evokes critical thought, meaningful interaction betwe...

Mental models are informal representations of how the world works. They influence how we perceive, behave, and decide. Mental models are updated and maintained through direct observation, learning, and experience, and are continuously relied upon to reason, explain, design, communicate, act, predict, and explore. As such, they play a fundamental ro...

The Centre on Persuasive Systems for Wise Adaptive Living (PERSWADE) aims at developing and applying persuasive technologies and system science for social innovation that can help humanity to move toward sustainable, wise, adaptive living. The PERSWADE collaborative knowledge base needs to be designed with the intent to bring together, enrich and l...

The use of simulation models is essential when exploring transitions to low-carbon futures and climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. There are many models developed to understand socio-environmental processes and interactions, and analyze alternative scenarios, but hardly one single model can serve all the needs. There is much expectat...

Scooters, or gasoline powered two-wheelers, are becoming increasingly popular in the Netherlands. They provide fast, independent and affordable transportation, especially in urban congested areas. Unfortunately, they also have considerable adverse impacts on the environment and human health. The three most prominent impacts are associated with air...

In today's growing economy, overconsumption and overproduction have accelerated environmental deterioration worldwide. Consumers, through unsustainable consumption patterns, and producers, through production based on traditional resource depleting practices, have contributed significantly to the socio-environmental problems. Consumers and producers...

Artificial societies used to guide and evaluate policies should be built by following "best practices". However, this goal may be challenged by the complexity of artificial societies and the interdependence of their sub-systems (e.g., built environment, social norms). We created a list of seven practices based on simulation methods, specific aspect...

A serious game was designed and developed with the goal of exploring potential sustainable futures and the transitions towards them. This computer-assisted board game, Last Island, which incorporates a system dynamics model into a board game's core mechanics, attempts to impart knowledge and understanding on sustainability and how an isolated socie...

Ancient Chinese cities have implemented a number of outstanding projects in unique local landscapes that still currently remain in use, and some of these ideas are similar to recent modern projects. An example of successful ecological engineering is the Tuancheng drainage system in Beijing. The present study presents a technical analysis of this dr...

Hydrological and biogeochemical processes are essential for material and energy exchange among climate-soil-plant systems and, thus, play an important role in terrestrial ecosystems. In particular, the water-carbon dynamics determine the status and change of ecosystems. Therefore, understanding the spatiotemporal features of the water and carbon cy...

Various tools and methods are used in participatory modelling, at different stages of the process and for different purposes. The diversity of tools and methods can create challenges for stakeholders and modelers when selecting the ones most appropriate for their projects. We offer a systematic overview, assessment, and categorization of methods to...

Participatory modeling engages the implicit and explicit knowledge of stakeholders to create formalized and shared representations of reality and has evolved into a field of study as well as a practice. Participatory modeling researchers and practitioners who focus specifically on environmental resources met at the National Socio-Environmental Synt...

Changing residential energy demand can play an essential role in transitioning to a green economy. Environmental psychology suggests that behavioral changes regarding energy use are affected by knowledge, awareness, motivation and social learning. Data on various behavioral drivers of change can explain energy use at the individual level, but it pr...

Ecosystem services (the benefits to humans from ecosystems) are estimated globally at $125 trillion/year [1, 2]. Similar assessments at national and regional scales show how these services support our lives [3]. All valuations recognize the role of biodiversity, which continues to decrease around the world in maintaining these services [4, 5]. The...

Our different kinds of minds and types of thinking affect the ways we decide, take action, and cooperate (or not). The comment by Walker et al. [2018] illustrates several points made by Glynn et al. [2017] and many other articles. Namely, biases and beliefs often drive scientific reasoning; and scientists, just like other humans, are intimately att...

The discourse on climate change stresses the importance of individual behavioral changes and shifts in social norms to assist both climate mitigation efforts worldwide. A design of an effective and efficient climate policy calls for decision support tools that are able to quantify cumulative impacts of individual behaviour and can integrate bottom-...

Predictions for Service Oriented Architectures (SOA) to deliver transformational results to the role and capabilities of IT for businesses have fallen short. Unforeseen challenges have often emerged in SOA adoption. They fall into two categories: technical issues stemming from service components reuse difficulties and organizational issues stemming...

Sustainability is a wicked problem, which is hard to define in a unique way. It cannot be solved and should be treated in a participatory approach involving as many stakeholders in the process as possible. Participatory modeling is an efficient method for dealing with wicked problems. It involves stakeholders in an open-ended process of shared lear...

In this chapter, we reflect on some of our experiences as modelers engaged in participatory modeling by outlining some of the lessons we have learned. Specifically, we outline best practices for modelers seeking to engage in the process, identify trade-offs in evaluating model results, and present a call for future research to explicitly incorporat...

Spartina spp. (cordgrasses) often dominates intertidal mudflats and/or low marshes. The landward invasion of these species was typically thought to be restrained by low tidal inundation frequencies and interspecific competition. We noticed that the reported soil salinity levels in some salt marshes were much higher than those at the mean higher hig...

Including stakeholders in environmental model building and analysis is an increasingly popular approach to understanding ecological change. This is because stakeholders often hold valuable knowledge about socio-environmental dynamics and collaborative forms of modeling produce important boundary objects used to collectively reason about environment...

We describe and discuss the design and prototype of the Distributed Model Integration Framework (DMIF) that links models deployed on different hardware and software platforms. We used distributed computing and service-oriented development approaches to address the different aspects of interoperability. Reusable web service wrappers were developed f...

Modeling and simulation are recognized as effective tools for management and decision support across various disciplines; however, poor communication of results to the end users is a major obstacle for properly using and understanding model output. Visualizations can play an essential role in making modeling results accessible for management and de...

Our different kinds of minds and types of thinking affect the ways we decide, take action, and cooperate (or not). Derived from these types of minds, innate biases, beliefs, heuristics, and values ( BBHV ) influence behaviors, often beneficially, when individuals or small groups face immediate, local, acute situations that they and their ancestors...

Previous life cycle assessments for agro-bioenergy production rarely considered some agronomic factors with local and regional impacts. While many studies have found the environmental and socio-economic impacts of producing bioenergy on arable land not good enough to be considered sustainable, others consider it still as one of the most effective d...

The use of life cycle assessment (LCA) as a sustainability assessment tool for agro-bioenergy system usually has an industrial agriculture bias. Furthermore, LCA generally has often been criticized for being a decision maker tool which may not consider decision takers perceptions. They are lacking in spatial and temporal depth, and unable to assess...

Integration of models requires linking models which can be developed using different tools, methodologies, and assumptions. We performed a literature review with the aim of improving our understanding of model integration process, and also presenting better strategies for building integrated modeling systems. We identified five different phases to...