Alexei Alexeevich Romanyukha

Russian Academy of Sciences | RAS · Institute of Numerical Mathematics

Mathematical models play an important role in management of outbreaks of acute respiratory infections (ARI). While such models are generally used to study the spread of a solitary virus, in reality multiple viruses co-circulate in the population. These viruses have been studied in detail, including the course of infection and immune defense mechani...

Background: The control of tuberculosis (TB) may benefit from a prospective identification of areas where the incidence may increase in addition to the traditionally identified foci of high incidence. We aimed to identify residential areas with growing tuberculosis incidence rates and assess their significance and stability. Methods: We analysed...

Целью работы является разработка метода прогноза тяжести инфекции и выбора вида дыхательной поддержки пациентов с COVID-19. Решаются задачи классификации исходного состояния и течения болезни у пациентов с инфекцией COVID-19 и построения математической модели динамики состояний пациентов в отделении интенсивной терапии. В работе анализируются данны...

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries used lockdowns as a containment measure. While lockdowns successfully contributed to slowing down the contagion, the related mobility restrictions were reportedly associated with an increased risk of major depressive and anxiety disorders. We aimed to quantify the trade-off between the quali...

The COVID-19 pandemic has created a public health emergency in Russia and across the world. The wavelike spread of the new coronavirus infection, caused by newly emerging variants of the coronavirus, has led to a high incidence rate in all subjects of the Russian Federation. It is becoming extremely topical to get the opportunity to manage the deve...

Little is known about the dynamics of the early stages of untreated active pulmonary tuberculosis: unknown are both the rates of progression and the model “scheme”. The “parallel” scheme assumes that infectiousness of tuberculosis cases is effectively predefined at the onset of the disease, and the “serial” scheme considers all cases to be noninfec...

An incidence curve of acute respiratory infections in Moscow has three picks between September and April and reaches its maximum in January- February. The emergence of new strains of influenza A could account for only one pick a year. The most cases of common cold are caused by ubiquitous low pathogenic viruses. In order to simulate weekly fluctuat...

In construction of mathematical models of propagation and control of pulmonary tuberculosis, presence or absence of bacterioexcretion is often used as the marker of disease severity. There are two major schemes of modeling for natural corse of tuberculosis. The first one is so called parallel scheme, the more frequently used, which assumes that a f...

Objectives: To find residential areas with high incidence rate of tuberculosis in Moscow using spatio-temporal analysis of incidence data. Methods: We analyzed the spatial patterns of residence locations of smear or culture positive patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in Moscow. To identify clusters with high local incidence rates the neighborh...

Objective. To develop a method for identifying residential areas with increased incidence of tuberculosis and to evaluate their epidemiological significance. Patients and methods. We analyzed coordinates of residence of 19,033 patients with smear/culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) revealed among the permanent population of Moscow in 2000...

Keywords: Oncology; Solid Tumors; Laboratory Diagnosis; Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay; Autoantibodies Early detection of malignant neoplasms to date is a serious problem. A prototype of the method of immunochemical detection of different types of solid cancers (primary and recurrent) in the early stages was developed. According to the initial h...

Mathematical modeling of immunosenescence is the new area of research focused on quantitative analyses of factors and mechanisms involved in agingrelated changes developing in the immune system. The research methods in these area emerged at the interface of the immunology, gerontology, mathematics, and computer modeling. Mathematical modeling of im...

Abstract. Epidemiological studies have shown that gender differences in tuberculosis prevalence can be explained by physiological, behavioral and social factors. In our work, the quantitative evaluation of the effect of such factors has been received. With this purpose, we developed a mathematical model of tuberculosis dynamics in two-gender popula...

Монография посвящена построению и исследованию математи- ческих моделей иммунологических и эпидемиологических процессов при инфекционных заболеваниях. Рассмотрены явления обучения, адаптации и старения иммунной системы, формирования иммуно- дефицитов, их зависимости от инфекционной нагрузки и других факторов внешней среды. Описан метод оценки качес...

It is well known that efficacy of immune functions declines with age. It results in an increase of severity and duration of respiratory infections and also in dramatic growth of risk of death due to these diseases after age 65. The goal of this work is to describe and investigate the mechanism underlying the age pattern of the mortality rate caused...

It is well known that efficacy of immune functions declines with age. It results in an increase of severity and duration of respiratory infections and also in dramatic growth of risk of death due to these diseases after age 65. The goal of this work is to describe and investigate the mechanism underlying the age pattern of the mortality rate caused...

In the work there is described the methodology and results of the analysis of epidemiological data on the prevalence rate of tuberculosis in Moscow in 2010-2014. The aim of the study was the search for socio-economic and demographic factors affecting on the morbidity rate in city residents. To solve this problem, there was evaluated the initial and...

We propose an approach for estimating the efficiency of biological systems and mechanisms in vivo. We compare two mechanisms for chemical transport: diffusion and endosome transport with a cargo along a system of microtubules. Our efficiency evaluation is based on a comparison of the organism’s energy expenditure for cell house-keeping and the tran...

Contemporary cell investigation methods permit us to describe the molecular transport mechanisms of intracellular substances and cell components. Analysis of the completeness and the consistency of the existing transport network data and their utilization is an issue for mathematical modeling. Self-organization of the cell transport network and tra...

The paper is aimed to construction of models of mechanisms determining the accuracy and stability of maintenance of target values for internal environment characteristics. The organism is described as an integrated set of physiological systems, namely, the homeostasis maintaining system, the reproductive system, and others. Those systems are joined...

OBJECTIVE: To estimate tuberculosis (TB) incidence and case detection rate (CDR) using routine TB surveillance data only. METHODS: A mathematical model of the case detection process, representing competition between disease progression and case finding, is proposed. The model describes disease progression as a two-stage process (bacillary and non-...

The research is aimed at developing and studying the distribution model of the human immunity deficit virus (HIV) that includes dynamics in the formation of risk groups. Most of the HIV distribution models assume that the risk of infection does not change over the individual’s lifetime. This work, in contrast, proposes a model of virus transmission...

The aim of the research is to develop methods for evaluation of effectiveness of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) spread counteraction measures for Russia. The regional inequity in HIV prevalence is closely linked with the inequity in prevalence of alcohol and drug abuse which can be considered as a value of social maladjustment in population. Ta...

Quantitative analysis data describing course of viral hepatitis show that concominal viral respiratory infection did not influence hepatitis severity and the rate of recovery after it. In the groups of hepatitis patients with different severity we also found the upper respiratory infections increasing proportional to the hepatitis severity. The rhi...

Using ordinary differential equations, we propose a mathematical model describing an “averaged” dynamics of variables involved in which some parameters are shown to be important characteristics of lung resistance. The model consists of modified D.A. Lauffenburger’s mathematical model for inflammatory reaction in lungs, and the model of humoral immu...

After studying the dependence of acute respiratory diseases of all etiologies on air temperature and population immunity dynamics, the authors proposed that the air temperature and the immunity level can affect disease resistance. Knowledge of the relationship between these factors must clarify the mechanisms that determine morbidity dynamics.

An approach to estimation of the immune system efficiency is proposed. The sum of energy costs of the immune system support and the body losses caused by infectious diseases determines the energy value of the immune system protection. It is assumed that the state of the immune system providing the minimum energetic cost for the given environment is...

Population studies have shown that treatment with the antidiabetic biguanide metformin significantly reduced cancer risk. In our animal studies, metformin delayed the onset of mammary adenocarcinoma (MAC) in transgenic HER-2/neu mice but not the onset of spontaneous mammary tumors in female SHR mice. Pineal hormone also inhibits mammary carcinoma d...

The conception of the cost of reproduction provides an important insight on connection between fertility and life span in living organisms. Despite substantial progress in understanding this connection many important features of fertility-longevity trade-off are masked by confounding factors, and remain poorly understood. We performed reanalysis of...

Current knowledge on the aging allows to elaborate approaches to the creation of multilevel model of multistage of human aging taking into consideration events during the aging at various levels of integration: molecular, cellular, tissue, organ, systemic, organism. The present paper have deals with main states of the mathematical model of multista...

Mathematical modeling of immunosenescence is the new area of research emerging at the interface of the immunology, gerontology, and mathematics. In this paper we outline basic variables important for modeling aging immunity. We discuss the role of evolution in shaping pattern of aging in the immune system of modern humans. We investigate mathematic...

The dynamics of specific immunity to tuberculosis mycobacteria in medical staff of tuberculosis hospitals is considered. Analysis of clinical data has revealed to identity three stages of the immune system adaptation to a high infection load: the stage of exhaustion of the pool of naive cells specific to tuberculosis mycobacteria, the stage of repr...

An index of HIV infection risk taking into account the regional peculiarities of HIV incidence in Russia is proposed. The index makes it possible to estimate the expected level of new infection cases in a region depending on the intensity of the population social disadaptation and socioeconomical characteristics of the region. A model of the format...

The results of statistical analysis of data related to the morbidity of respiratory infections in Moscow in the period of 1959-1988 are described. A decrease in morbidity in the winter epidemic period and its growth in the summer interepidemic period are pointed out. The analysis shows that the regularities of the spread of respiratory infections d...

A method for estimating the parameters of a model describing the main specifics of tuberculosis transmission in Russia is constructed. The method presented allows one to take into account the difference of social and economic characteristics in the regions and the quality of work of antituberculous centers. The dynamics of the main epidemiological...

In this paper a mathematical model that describes the main points of tuberculosis trans-mission in Russia was constructed. The problem of adjusting the model for a number of regions of Russia was formulated. A method of estimating the model’s parameters and basic epidemiological characteristics was developed, where socioeconomic heterogeneity and t...

A mathematical model of the spread of tuberculosis taking into account the impact of the antituberculosis programs was considered. The singularity of the proposed model lies in making explicit discrimination between the detected and overlooked patients and taking into account their migration. Studies demonstrated insufficiency of the standard accou...

Книга посвящена развитию кибернетических моделей в геронтологии, описывающих согласованную динамику характеристик на различных уровнях организации. Эти модели позволяют прояснить молекулярно-генетическую и физиологическую основу наблюдаемых изменений динамики индивидуального и популяционного старения населения и могут быть использованы я исследован...

СОДЕРЖАНИЕ ГЛАВЫ 15: с. 506-530. 15.1. Неожиданные популяционные тренды - 507. 15.2. Утверждения о совершившемся эпидемическом переходе могут оказаться преждевременными - 508. 15.3. Механизмы пластичности кривой смертности неясны - 509. 15.4. Кривая смертности не всегда служит адекватной мерой индивидуального старения - 510. 15.5. Допущения, традиц...

In this paper the modern views concerning the place of mathematical and computer modeling of aging and aging related pathologies in the current state and in future developments of gerontology are discussed. The review of most perspective directions of research including analyses of demographic, molecular, cellular, and physiological mechanisms of a...

This paper is devoted to the construction of a mathematical model of the endocrine system regulatory network. The model describes interdependence between the concentrations of forty-five hormones, carrier proteins, their complexes, and several physiological parameters. The integrated network including six endocrine subsystems or axes (somatotropic,...

Modeling of t cell population development and estimation of resource allocation effectiveness S.G.Rudnev1, A.A.Romanyukha1, A.I.Yashin2 1Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences 2Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, USA In this paper, the mathematical model of age-related changes in population of peripheral T cel...

In this paper, a recently developed mathematical model of age related changes in population of peripheral T cells (Romanyukha, Yashin, 2003) is used to describe ontogenetic changes of the immune system. The treatise is based on the assumption of linear dependence of antigen load from basal metabolic rate, which, in turn, depends on body mass follow...

A mathematical model of long-term immune defense against infection was used to estimate the energy involved in the principal processes of immune resistance during periods of health and infection. From these values, an optimal level of energy was determined for immune response depending on infection burden. The present findings suggest that weak but...

Analysis of experimental data on longevity and fertility of females of Mediterranean fruit fly Ceratitis capitata demonstrates that flies lay fewer eggs on the average as the average life-span increases. At the same time, the values of individual life-span and the number of eggs laid are positively correlated. To explain these results, a resource m...

In this paper, we analyze the structure of equations in the earlier proposed mathematical model of the dynamics of age-related changes in population of peripheral T lymphocytes. To investigate behavior of the model solutions in a wide range of values of variables we introduce a linear relation between the rate of T lymphocytes proliferation and the...

This paper is devoted to the construction of a mathematical model of tuberculosis morbidity dynamics. The model takes into account the peculiarities of morbidity epidemiology and its control. The model is adjusted to data collected in the Orlovskaya oblast. The results obtained will be used for the analysis of the epidemiological situation and desi...

Understanding the factors that determine the allocation and utilization of organism resources may provide an insight into the mechanisms of adaptation, ageing and reproduction. Resource allocation, which is regarded as a method of adaptation, increases fitness and is genetically controlled. Experiments with variable diet feeding of female Mediterra...

Relationships between the energy cost of immune defence, the disease severity, and the properties of pathogens were investigated. The findings suggested a hypothesis explaining the observed distribution of microorganism pathogenicity. The mechanism supporting stability of this distribution explains emergence of new highly pathogenic strains of micr...

In this paper, we presented the results of analysis of experimental evidence for the decline of the human immune system functioning with age using mathematical model of immunosenescence. The most prominent changes in this system are related to the decline in the T-cellular immunity. These include the decline in the nai;ve T cells generation rate, s...

This paper is dedicated to investigation of the impact of total antigenic load on immunosenescence. Data on pneumonia mortality have been simulated. The results of modelling revealed that antigenic load as well as probability of infecting could account for the shifting in mortality that takes place for different countries. Dynamics of immunosenesce...

The relation is studied between energy price of immune defense, weight of illness and pathogenic microorganisms properties. The investigation results allow to suggest a hypothesis explaining the occurrence frequency distribution of microorganisms with different pathogenicity levels observed in the nature. The stability support mechanism of the dist...

This paper is dedicated to investigation of the impact of total antigenic load on immunosenescence. Data on pneumonia mortality have been simulated. The results of modelling revealed that antigenic load as well as probability of infecting could account for the shifting in mortality that takes place for different countries. Dynamics of immunosenesce...

Unlabelled: An analysis is presented of the data concerning to the decline with the age the human immune system function. The most prominent changes links with T-cellular immunity. The embrace the naive T cells generation rate diminishing, peripheral lymphoid tissue volume shrinkage, absolute and relative concentration of naive T cells in blood de...

The paper describes the results of work on the development of methods of data analysis for infectious diseases, and the construction and study of mathematical models of defense immune reactions in the course of diseases. We describe a method of constructing disease severity indices and analysis of their dynamics. We consider the base model and some...

We consider the application of linear multistep methods (LMMs) for the numerical solution of initial value problem for stiff delay differential equations (DDEs) with several constant delays, which are used in mathematical modelling of immune response. For the approximation of delayed variables the Nordsieck's interpolation technique, providing an i...

We present an approach in this paper to the solution of parameter identification problem arising in immune response modelling. The models are formulated as stiff systems of nonlinear delay-differential equations (DDEs). The criteria for the best-fit solution are discussed, which are appropriate when the data to be fitted varies considerably in magn...

We present an approach to studying theoretically the regularities and the kinetic characteristics of influenza A virus (IAV) infection in man. The estimates of the "numbers" (Zinkernagel et al., 1985) characterizing evolutionary established interferon and immune responses in uncomplicated IAV infection are explored by developing a multiparameter ma...

A mathematical model of the T-lymphocyte proliferation process (in vivo and in vitro) is presented. This model takes into account cell-cycle progression and the regulation by lymphokines (lymphocyte activating factor interleukin 1 and T-cell growth factor interleukin 2). Using data on the generalized picture of the short-term course of viral hepati...

In this paper we present an approach to the quantitative description of the organization and the dynamic properties of the immune response during acute viral infections in man. The study of virus infections is a central aspect of experimental and clinical investigations of the immune response. The real problem in understanding the nature of immunit...

The present approach to the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases is based upon the idea that specific immune mechanisms play a leading role in development, course, and outcome of infectious disease. The model describing the reaction of the immune system to infectious agent invasion is constructed on the bases of Burnet's clonal selection t...

Considering the mathematical model of antiviral immune response, we describe a method of fitting the model to the data characterizing acute viral hepatitis B. The corresponding procedure employs an idea of sequential parameter estimation to make the problem of fitting manageable. The underlying mechanisms responsible for the quantitative manifestat...

The paper is concerned with the time-course of changes in the HBsAg concentration in 31 patients with malignant hepatitis B. No relationship was discovered between the disease outcome and the HBsAg concentration. At the same time in lethal outcomes, the HBsAg concentration dropped significantly more swiftly as compared to that in convalescents. The...

The paper is concerned with the results of hormonal studies on virus hepatitis in 84 children aged 2 to 14, of them 28 had a mild form of disease, 50--medium grave and 6--a severe form of disease. A study was made of the blood content of ACTH, STH, TSH, cortisol, aldosterone, T3, T4, prolactin, and alpha-fetoprotein. The hormones were determined by...