Alexandre S Gagnon

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• PhD MSc BSc
• Reader at Liverpool John Moores University

Purpose – The concept of vulnerability in climate change literature is underpinned by numerous theoretical contributions across different disciplines leading to disparate understandings of what climate change vulnerability entails, as well as different methodological frameworks for assessment. This multiplicity of contributions helped not only to f...

One of the most difficult problem facing those responsible for managing World Heritage Sites (WHS) is climate change, as it poses continuous new challenges to the conservation of cultural heritage. Moreover, as our climate continues to change our cultural heritage will potentially be exposed to diverse pressures and potentially to risks not previou...

Climate change, as revealed by gradual changes in temperature, precipitation, atmospheric moisture, and wind intensity, as well as sea level rise and changes in the occurrence of extreme events, is already affecting cultural heritage sites. Accordingly, there is a rapidly increasing body of research reporting on the impacts of climatic stressors on...

The spatial extent of the Snow Cover Area (SCA) of the Bhagirathi River Basin (BRB) has changed in recent decades, impacting the hydrology of the region. Previous studies examining variations in SCA in the region have yet been limited to the effects of terrain variables, namely elevation, slope and aspect, without considering the influence of clima...

The Grombalia Basin, located in Northern Tunisia, is facing significant challenges related to water scarcity. The cultivation of citrus fruits in this region, supported by the government, has become increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including reduced rainfall and more frequent drought periods. The agricultural sector faces a...

The architectural style found in Wa and Tamale is renowned for its distinctive use of earthen construction, which features square buildings with flat roofs and circular compounds with conical thatch roofs. Recently, there has been a growing inclination towards the use of alternative construction techniques in which nontraditional materials such as...

In light of the UK's 2024 general election and new government, UK policy on climate change is likely to see a shift in direction. This paper presents the proceedings of an event held at the UK Royal Geographical Society (with IBG) (RGS‐IBG) in February 2024, exploring the path ahead for UK climate policy. Four expert panelists were asked to reflect...

Urban flooding can lead to significant economic and social repercussions. To effectively understand and mitigate these impacts, conducting a flood risk assessment is crucial. This research focuses on evaluating flood damage in the flood-prone areas of the Koramangala-Challaghatta (KC) Valley in Bengaluru, India. The study involved surveying these r...

Predicting rainfall is a challenging and critical task due to its significant impact on society. Timely and accurate predictions are essential for minimizing human and financial losses. The dependence of approximately 60% of agricultural land in India on monsoon rainfall implies the crucial nature of accurate rainfall prediction. Precise rainfall f...

Sustainable Development Goal‐7 (SDG‐7) of the United Nations promotes the use of renewable and affordable energy. Solar energy holds significant promise as an effective and affordable renewable source in tropical countries. GIS‐based Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach has been applied to evaluate land suitability for installing ground...

Sustainable Development Goal-7 (SDG-7) of the United Nations promotes the use of renewable and affordable energy. Solar energy holds significant promise as an effective and affordable renewable source in tropical countries. GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach has been applied to evaluate land suitability for installing ground...

Several damaging tropical cyclones (TCs) have occurred recently over the South Indian Ocean (SIO) region, causing enormous social and economic losses. Yet, while many studies have examined SIO TC characteristics using observations and reanalysis, only a few have assessed these characteristics specifically for this region in climate models, and fewe...

The Vu Gia–Thu Bon (VG–TB) river basin is facing numerous challenges to water security, particularly in light of the increasing impacts of climate change. These challenges, including salinity intrusion, shifts in rainfall patterns, and reduced water supply in downstream areas, are of great concern. This study comprehensively assessed the current st...

In the Southern Central Highlands of Vietnam, droughts occur more frequently, causing significant damage and impacting the region’s socio-economic development. During the dry season, rivers, streams, and reservoirs often face limited water availability, exacerbated in recent years by increasing drought severity. Recognizing the escalating severity...

The Vu Gia - Thu Bon River Basin (VG-TB) is confronting numerous challenges related to water security (WS), particularly in the face of the impacts of climate change. These challenges manifest in salinity intrusion, altered rainfall patterns, and reduced water supply in downstream areas. To assess the current state of water security in the basin, t...

The Ca Mau Peninsula (CMP) in Vietnam’s Lower Mekong Delta faces pressing challenges, including sea-level rise (SLR), land subsidence, flooding, and saltwater intrusion. Recent years have witnessed an earlier and more severe dry season, leading to heightened saltwater intrusion. As many CMP provinces rely on the Mekong River for their water supply,...

As climate change impacts increase, there are growing calls for strengthening relationships between researchers and other stakeholders to advance adaptation efforts. Participation and co‐production are widely held to be key to such relationships, both intended to open substantive engagement in science and research to non‐experts. Gains commonly att...

Climate change poses a significant threat to coastal regions worldwide. This study presents and applies a modified Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) to assess coastal vulnerability at the village level, focusing on Canacona, a taluka in South Goa, India. It adapts the existing CVI methodology by incorporating additional variables to better represen...

Understanding drought and its multifaceted challenges is crucial for safeguarding food security, promoting environmental sustainability, and fostering socio-economic well-being across the globe. As a consequence of climate change and anthropogenic factors, the occurrence and severity of drought has risen globally. In India, droughts are regular phe...

Water pollution in the Vam Co River basin is becoming more complicated due to untreated wastewater being directly discharged into rivers and canals from agricultural, industrial, and domestic activities. To assess the water quality in this area, this study conducted monitoring at ten sampling locations (S1-S10) from 2018 to 2022, calculated the Wat...

In Southeast Vietnam, droughts have become more frequent, causing significant damage and impacting the region’s socio-economic development. Water shortages frequently affect the industrial and agricultural sectors in the area. This study aims to calculate the water balance and the resilience of existing water resource allocations in the La Nga-Luy...

Since its advent in 1972, the Landsat satellites have witnessed consistent improvements in sensor characteristics, which have significantly improved accuracy. In this study, a comparison of the accuracy of Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI) and OLI-2 satellites in land use land cover (LULC) mapping has been made. For this, image fusion technique...

Ca Mau and Kien Giang, the two provinces of the Mekong Delta bordering the Gulf of Thailand, are facing major environmental challenges affecting the agriculture and aquaculture sectors upon which many livelihoods in this region depend on. This study maps the suitability of these two provinces for paddy rice cultivation and shrimp farming according...

Large-scale coastal erosion in the Mekong Delta has been dramatically increasing in severity in recent decades. There are several effective hard engineering solutions that have been implemented in this delta to efficiently prevent coastal erosion and stimulate sedimentation while supporting the local ecosystem conservation. These measures include P...

Mapping and monitoring the distribution of croplands and crop types support policymakers and international organizations by reducing the risks to food security, notably from climate change and, for that purpose, remote sensing is routinely used. However, identifying specific crop types, cropland, and cropping patterns using space-based observations...

The delta of the Mekong River is one of the largest in the world, with the Mekong River carrying a large amount of sediments in its Region of Freshwater Influence (ROFI). This study investigates the flow structure and movement of both suspended and bedload sediments in the ROFI of the Lower Mekong Delta (LMD) in order to identify areas prone to sed...

This study presents an approach for modelling and mapping fluvial flooding, considering both land use/land cover (LULC) change and climate change, and applies it to the Brahmani River Basin in eastern India. Climate change projections were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and their impacts on the hydrology of...

Pakistan is amongst the most water-stressed countries in the world, with changes in the frequency of extreme events, notably droughts, under climate change expected to further increase water scarcity. This study examines the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the runoff of the Kunhar River Basin (KRB) in Pakistan. The Mann Ke...

The extent of wildfires cannot be easily mapped using field-based methods in areas with complex topography, and in those areas the use of remote sensing is an alternative. This study first obtained images from the Sentinel-2 satellites for the period 2015–2020 with the objective of applying multi-temporal spectral indices to assess areas burned in...

The Himalayan-Karakoram (HK) region is often referred as the ‘Water Tower of Asia’, as the melt water from the glaciers and snow cover of this mountainous region provide a continuous supply of water to the major rivers of South Asia, notably the Indus, Ganga, and Brahmaputra. Recent studies reveal that climate change has altered the accumulation of...

Rivers play an essential role to humans and ecosystems, but they also burst their banks during floods, often causing extensive damage to crop, property, and loss of lives. This paper characterizes the 2014 flood of the Indus River in Pakistan using the US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Centre River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model, i...

There has been an exponential growth in the number of people living in urban areas since the middle of the twentieth century, and by the end of 2018, more than half of the world population lived in cities. This rapid urbanisation has created unprecedented challenges, among which the provision of domestic water has received increasing attention. Wat...

Flood risk maps delineate areas potentially at risk of flooding and are thus a crucial tool in flood risk management. In Spain, such maps are provided as open geospatial data. This article compares the flood‐prone areas according to those maps for floods of different return periods with the spatial extent of two floods that severely affected southw...

Water from the alluvium of ephemeral rivers in Zimbabwe is increasingly being used. These alluvial aquifers are recharged annually from infiltrating floodwater. Nonetheless, the size of this water resource is not without limit and an understanding of the hydrological processes of an alluvial aquifer is required for its sustainable management. This...

Climate change mitigation targets have put pressure to reduce the carbon footprint of cultural heritage buildings. Commonly adopted measures to decrease the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of historical buildings are targeted at improving their energy efficiency through insulating the building envelope, and upgrading their heating, cooling and light...

Bias correction of global and regional climate models is essential for credible climate change projections. This study examines the bias of the models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in their simulation of the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SSTs) in different phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENS...

There is growing concern about the threat posed by climate change to cultural heritage, notably to World Heritage properties. Climate change is triggering changes in rainfall patterns, humidity and temperature, as well as increasing exposure to severe weather events that can negatively impact on cultural heritage materials and structures by enhanci...

Changes in rainfall patterns, humidity, and temperature, as well as greater exposure to severe weather events, has led to the need for adapting cultural heritage to climate change. However, there is limited research accomplished to date on the process of adaptation of cultural heritage to climate change. This paper examines the perceptions of exper...

Bias correction of global and regional climate models is essential for credible climate change projections. This study examines the bias of the models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in their simulation of the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SSTs) in different phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENS...

Report describing the Exchange with the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) funded by SAGES through PECRE funding award available at: https://www.sages.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Elena-Sesana-PECRE-report-NORWAY-website-version.pdf

The concept of transformation in relation to climate and other global change is increasingly receiving attention. The concept provides important opportunities to help examine how rapid and fundamental change to address contemporary global challenges can be facilitated. This paper contributes to discussions about transformation by providing a social...

Report describing the Exchange with the Natural, Environmental and Anthropic Hazards of Cultural Heritage research group of The Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC) within the larger Italian research institution “Consiglio nazionale delle Ricerche” (CNR) in Bologna, Italy. Funded by SAGES through PECRE funding award. Available at:...

Sand rivers are ephemeral watercourses containing sand that are occasionally flooded with rainwater runoff during the rainy season. Although the riverbed appears dry for most of the year, there is perennial groundwater flow within the sand. This water flowing beneath the surface is a valuable resource for local communities; nonetheless our understa...

This paper analyses the impact of the variability and periodicity of rainfall on the reliability of water supply systems in Scotland. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate catchment runoff, and the reliability of 29 notional and six actual reservoirs was calculated using a simple storage model. The relationship between water suppl...

This paper analyses the impact of the variability and periodicity of rainfall on the reliability of water supply systems in Scotland. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate catchment runoff and the reliability of 29 notional and six actual reservoirs was calculated using a simple storage model. The relationship between water supply...

Projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration under climate change and their impacts on the reliability of six water storage reservoirs and two river intake schemes in Scotland are examined. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate catchment runoff which, together with evapotranspiration, served as inputs into a reservoir...

Projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration under climate change and their impacts on the reliability of six water storage reservoirs and two river intake schemes in Scotland are examined. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate catchment runoff which, together with evapotranspiration, served as inputs into a reservoir...

This paper analyses the temporal and spatial changes in the amount and variability of rainfall in Scotland. The sequential Mann-Kendall test reveals that total annual precipitation has increased across Scotland since the 1970s with increasing trends in variability beginning between the mid-1960s and the mid-1970s. Whilst temporally consistent incre...

Vulnerability to climate change is a function of both exposure and sensitivity to the impacts of climate change and coping capacity, whether physical or human, to deal with those impacts. The coast is a dynamic environment where physical change is constant. Severe flooding and damage to land, property and coastal infrastructure in the Outer Hebride...

This paper analyses the temporal and spatial changes in the amount and variability of rainfall in Scotland. The sequential Mann-Kendall test reveals that total annual precipitation has increased across Scotland since the 1970s with increasing trends in variability beginning between the mid-1960s and the mid-1970s. Whilst temporally consistent incre...

Critical barriers to adaptation to climate change include the timely detection and agreed definition of problems requiring adaptive action. In the context of local scale coastal management in north-western Europe, challenges to problem detection and identification are exacerbated by the diffuse nature of administrative, sectoral, and legal rights a...

Different conceptual perspectives and analytical approaches can be pursued in the analysis of climate change vulnerability. These include top-down and bottom-up approaches which frame and assess vulnerability in different ways using different methods and tools. Bottom-up approaches tend to focus on the analysis of vulnerability at the local level b...

The objective of this research is to analyse temporal changes in historic rainfall variability across Scotland using different measures of variability. The CUSUM and sequential Mann-Kendall test applied to records from 28 weather stations with up to 80 years of daily precipitation data reveal the occurrence of abrupt changes in the rainfall trends....

For the purpose of identifying potential sources of predictability of Scottish mean air temperature (SMAT), a redundancy analysis (RA) was accomplished to quantitatively assess the predictability of SMAT from North Atlantic SSTs as well as the temporal consistency of this predictability. The RA was performed between the main principal components of...

The observations of community members and instrumental records indicate changes in sea ice around the Inuit community of Igloolik, in the Canadian territory of Nunavut. This paper characterizes local vulnerability to these changes, identifying who is vulnerable, to what stresses, and why, focusing on local and regional use of sea ice for the harves...

Malaria is a significant public health problem in Tanzania. Approximately 16 million malaria cases are reported every year and 100,000 to 125,000 deaths occur. Although most of Tanzania is endemic to malaria, epidemics occur in the highlands, notably in Kagera, a region that was subject to widespread malaria epidemics in 1997 and 1998. This study e...

Ice cover in the Hudson Bay region (HBR) goes through a complete cryogenic cycle each year. Freeze-up typically occurs in October and November, ice cover reaches its peak thickness from late March to May, and water bodies in the HBR are usually ice-free beginning in early August. In this study, the timing and magnitude of the annual peak in ice thi...

Hudson Bay experiences a complete cryogenic cycle each year. Sea ice begins to form in late October, and the Bay is usually ice-free in early August. This seasonally varying ice cover plays an important role in the regional climate. To identify secular trends in the cryogenic cycle, we examined variability in the timing of sea-ice formation and ret...

General circulation models (GCMs) are unanimous in projecting warmer temperatures in an enhanced CO2 atmosphere, with amplification of this warming in higher latitudes. The Hudson Bay region, which is located in the Arctic and subarctic regions of Canada, should therefore be strongly influenced by global warming. In this study, we compare the respo...

Seasonal sea ice in Hudson Bay plays a key role in determining the regional climatology. In this paper, the relationship between ice thickness with local surface air temperature and snow depth is explored at nine locations in the Hudson Bay region. A weak but statistically significant correlation was found between basin averaged ice thickness and c...

Long-term streamflow time series were analysed to provide evidence of climate change in the Hudson Bay region. We also investigated whether relationships exist between streamflow and proximal temperature and precipitation time series. The Mann-Kendall test for trend reveals an earlier occurrence of the spring peak flow in three rivers flowing into...

A better understanding of the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the climatic anomalies it engenders, and malaria epidemics could help mitigate the world-wide increase in incidence of this mosquito-transmitted disease. The purpose of this paper is to assess the possibility of using ENSO forecasts for improving malaria con...

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that the 1997/98 El Nino might have been the cause of the dengue fever epidemics in many tropical countries. Because of the interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean, the warm El Nino and the cold La Nina phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) engender significant temperature and precip...

"Submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences." Thesis (M. Sc.)--University of Alberta, 2000.