Alexandra Sarafoglou

Alexandra Sarafoglou
University of Amsterdam | UVA · Department of Psychological Methods

Master of Science

About

45
Publications
20,948
Reads
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1,723
Citations
Additional affiliations
September 2015 - August 2017
University of Amsterdam
Position
  • false
October 2014 - present
University of Tuebingen
Position
  • Research Assistant
Description
  • Teaching a tutorial on the lecture 'Multivariate statistics and longitudinal data analysis' (winter semester 2014/2015) and on the lecture 'Computer-assisted research methods (summer semester 2015)

Publications

Publications (45)
Preprint
Full-text available
Multinomial processing tree (MPT) models are a broad class of statistical models used to test sophisticated psychological theories. The research questions derived from these theories often go beyond simple condition effects on parameters and involve ordinal expectations (e.g., the same-direction effect on the memory parameter is stronger in one exp...
Preprint
Empirical claims are inevitably associated with uncertainty, and a major goal of data analysis is therefore to quantify that uncertainty. Recent work has revealed that most uncertainty may lie not in what is usually reported (e.g., p-value, confidence interval, or Bayes factor), but in what is left unreported (e.g., how the experiment was designed,...
Article
Full-text available
The relation between religiosity and well-being is one of the most researched topics in the psychology of religion, yet the directionality and robustness of the effect remains debated. Here, we adopted a many-analysts approach to assess the robustness of this relation based on a new cross-cultural dataset (N = 10, 535 participants from 24 countries...
Article
Full-text available
The preregistration of research protocols and analysis plans is a main reform innovation to counteract confirmation bias in the social and behavioural sciences. While theoretical reasons to preregister are frequently discussed in the literature, the individually experienced advantages and disadvantages of this method remain largely unexplored. The...
Preprint
In this document, we outline the dataset that was used in the Many-Analysts Religion Project (MARP). Specifically, we provide details on how participants were recruited and what materials were used. The dataset itself is openly available at https://osf.io/k9puq/. If you want to use the data, please cite this document.
Article
Any single analysis hides an iceberg of uncertainty. Multi-team analysis can reveal it. Any single analysis hides an iceberg of uncertainty. Multi-team analysis can reveal it.
Preprint
In the main article on the Many-Analysts Religion Project (MARP) the results of the 120 analysis teams were summarized by taking each team's reported effect size and subjective assessment of the relation between religiosity and well-being, and the moderating role of cultural norms on this relation. Here, we discuss the findings in the main manuscri...
Article
Current developments in the statistics community suggest that modern statistics education should be structured holistically, that is, by allowing students to work with real data and to answer concrete statistical questions, but also by educating them about alternative frameworks, such as Bayesian inference. In this article, we describe how we incor...
Preprint
The relation between religiosity and well-being is one of the most researched topics in the psychology of religion, yet the directionality and robustness of the effect remains debated. Here, we adopted a many-analysts approach to assess the robustness of this relation based on a new cross-cultural dataset (N=10,535 participants from 24 countries)....
Preprint
In psychology, preregistration is the most widely used method to ensure the confirmatory status of analyses. However, the method has disadvantages: not only is it perceived as effortful and time consuming, but reasonable deviations from the analysis plan demote the status of the study to exploratory. An alternative to preregistration is analysis bl...
Preprint
The preregistration of research protocols and analysis plans is a main reform innovation to counteract confirmation bias in the social and behavioral sciences. While theoretical reasons to preregister are frequently discussed in the literature, the individually experienced advantages and disadvantages of this method remain largely unexplored. The g...
Article
Full-text available
We argue that statistical practice in the social and behavioural sciences benefits from transparency, a fair acknowledgement of uncertainty and openness to alternative interpretations. Here, to promote such a practice, we recommend seven concrete statistical procedures: (1) visualizing data; (2) quantifying inferential uncertainty; (3) assessing da...
Article
Full-text available
Any large dataset can be analyzed in a number of ways, and it is possible that the use of different analysis strategies will lead to different results and conclusions. One way to assess whether the results obtained depend on the analysis strategy chosen is to employ multiple analysts and leave each of them free to follow their own approach. Here, w...
Article
Full-text available
The replicability of findings in experimental psychology can be improved by distinguishing sharply between hypothesis-generating research and hypothesis-testing research. This distinction can be achieved by preregistration, a method that has recently attracted widespread attention. Although preregistration is fair in the sense that it inoculates re...
Article
Full-text available
Despite the increasing availability of Open Science (OS) infrastructure and the rise in policies to change behaviour, OS practices are not yet the norm. While pioneering researchers are developing OS practices, the majority sticks to status quo. To transition to common practice, we must engage a critical proportion of the academic community. In thi...
Preprint
Full-text available
The multibridge R package allows a Bayesian evaluation of informed hypotheses H_r applied to frequency data from an independent binomial or multinomial distribution. multibridge uses bridge sampling to efficiently compute Bayes factors for the following hypotheses concerning the latent category proportions theta: (a) hypotheses that postulate equal...
Preprint
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We present consensus-based guidance for conducting and documenting multi-analyst studies. We discuss why broader adoption of the multi-analyst approach will strengthen the robustness of results and conclusions in empirical sciences.
Preprint
Full-text available
Ordinal rating scales---say that from *strongly agree* to *strongly disagree* with a proposition---are exceedingly popular in psychological research. Yet, there is often a lingering question of whether metric-level descriptions of the results and parametric tests are appropriate. We consider a different problem, perhaps one that supersedes the ordi...
Preprint
We explore the promise of statistical reform by starting from the assumption that most researchers would endorse Merton's ethos of science as reflected in the four norms of communalism, universalism, disinterestedness, and organized skepticism. Translated to data analysis, these norms imply a need for transparency, a fair acknowledgement of uncerta...
Preprint
How confident are researchers in their own claims? Augustus De Morgan suggested that researchers may initially present their conclusions modestly, but afterwards use them as if they were a “moral certainty”. To prevent this from happening, De Morgan proposed that whenever researchers make a claim, they accompany it with a number that reflects their...
Article
Full-text available
Large-scale collaborative projects recently demonstrated that several key findings from the social-science literature could not be replicated successfully. Here, we assess the extent to which a finding’s replication success relates to its intuitive plausibility. Each of 27 high-profile social-science findings was evaluated by 233 people without a P...
Preprint
Hypotheses concerning the distribution of multinomial proportions typically entail exact equality constraints that can be evaluated using standard tests. Whenever researchers formulate inequality constrained hypotheses, however, they must rely on sampling-based methods that are relatively inefficient and computationally expensive. To address this p...
Article
Full-text available
The Peer Reviewers’ Openness (PRO) Initiative promotes the sharing of data and code. PRO signatories pledge to provide a full review only for manuscripts that publicly share data and code, or include a justification why sharing is not possible. Since the punitive element of this approach attracted criticism, we conducted a survey to assess signator...
Article
Despite an ongoing stream of lamentations, many empirical disciplines still treat the p value as the sole arbiter to separate the scientific wheat from the chaff. The continued reign of the p value is arguably due in part to a perceived lack of workable alternatives. In order to be workable, any alternative methodology must be (1) relevant: it has...
Article
Full-text available
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
Article
Full-text available
We present a consensus-based checklist to improve and document the transparency of research reports in social and behavioural research. An accompanying online application allows users to complete the form and generate a report that they can submit with their manuscript or post to a public repository.
Preprint
Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is the standard procedure for statistical inference in factorial designs. Typically, ANOVAs are executed using frequentist statistics, where p-values determine statistical significance in an all-or-none fashion. In recent years, the Bayesian approach to statistics is increasingly viewed as a legitimate alternative to th...
Preprint
Full-text available
Large-scale collaborative projects recently demonstrated that several key findings from the social science literature could not be replicated successfully. Here we assess the extent to which a finding’s replication success relates to its intuitive plausibility. Each of 27 high-profile social science findings was evaluated by 233 people without a Ph...
Preprint
The replicability of findings in experimental psychology can be improved by distinguishing sharply between hypothesis-generating research and hypothesis-testing research. This distinction can be achieved by preregistration, a method that has recently attracted widespread attention. Although preregistration is fair in the sense that it inoculates re...
Preprint
In recent years, multiple initiatives have sought to improve the transparency and reproducibility of psychological research. One example is the Peer Reviewers’ Openness Initiative (PRO), which aims to promote the sharing of data and code. PRO signatories pledge to provide a full review only for manuscripts that publicly share data and code, or incl...
Article
Full-text available
The current crisis of confidence in psychological science has spurred on field-wide reforms to enhance transparency, reproducibility, and replicability. To solidify these reforms within the scientific community, student courses on open science practices are essential. Here we describe the content of our Research Master course “Good Research Practic...
Preprint
Despite an ongoing stream of lamentations, many empirical disciplines still treat the p-value as the sole arbiter to separate the scientific wheat from the chaff. The continued reign of the p-value is arguably due in part to a perceived lack of workable alternatives. In order to be workable, any alternative methodology must be (1) relevant: it has...
Preprint
The current crisis of confidence in psychological science has spurred on fieldwide reforms to enhance transparency, reproducibility, and replicability. To solidify these reforms within the scientific community, student courses on open science practices are essential. Here we describe the content of our Research Master course “Good Research Practice...
Preprint
Full-text available
Despite the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference in empirical research, few practical guidelines provide detailed recommendations for how to apply Bayesian procedures and interpret the results. Here we offer specific guidelines for four different stages of Bayesian statistical reasoning in a research setting: planning the analysis, executing...
Article
Full-text available
We outline a network method to synthesize a literature overview from search results obtained by multiple team members. Several network statistics are used to create a single representativeness ranking. We illustrate the method with the dispersed literature on a common misinterpretation of analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). The network method yields a...
Preprint
Full-text available
Current developments in the statistics community suggest that modern statistics education should be structured holistically, i.e., by allowing students to work with real data and answer concrete statistical questions, but also by educating them about alternative statistical frameworks, such as Bayesian statistics. In this article, we describe how w...
Article
Full-text available
Over the years, researchers in psychological science have documented and investigated a host of powerful cognitive fallacies, including hindsight bias and confirmation bias. Researchers themselves may not be immune to these fallacies and may unwittingly adjust their statistical analysis to produce an outcome that is more pleasant or better in line...
Preprint
Over the years, psychological science has documented and investigated a host of powerful cognitive fallacies, including hindsight bias and confirmation bias. Researchers themselves may not be immune to these fallacies, and unwittingly adjust their statistical analysis to produce an outcome that is more pleasant or better in line with prior expectat...
Preprint
The marginal likelihood plays an important role in many areas of Bayesian statistics such as parameter estimation, model comparison, and model averaging. In most applications, however, the marginal likelihood is not analytically tractable and must be approximated using numerical methods. Here we provide a tutorial on bridge sampling (Bennett, 1976;...
Article
Full-text available
Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data wer...
Article
Full-text available
The marginal likelihood plays an important role in many areas of Bayesian statistics such as parameter estimation, model comparison, and model averaging. In most applications, however, the marginal likelihood is not analytically tractable and must be approximated using numerical methods. Here we provide a tutorial on bridge sampling (Bennett, 1976;...
Article
Full-text available
The Normacog Brief Battery (NBB) provides a comprehensive overview of an individual’s cognitive functioning within a short amount of time. It was originally developed for the Spanish population in Spain. However, there is a considerable need for brief batteries in clinical neuropsychological assessment, especially in eastern European countries. Cul...
Research
Full-text available
Presentation at the Psychometric Computing Conference (PsychoCo) in Liège, February 2016 (http://eeecon.uibk.ac.at/psychoco/)

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Projects

Projects (2)
Project
JASP is a free and open-source graphical program for statistical analysis, designed to be easy to use, and familiar to users of SPSS. Additionally, it provides many Bayesian statistical methods. JASP generally produces APA style results tables and plots to ease publication. It promotes open science by integration with the Open Science Framework and reproducibility by integrating the analysis settings into the results. The development of JASP is financially supported by several universities and research funds.