Alexander I. Shiklomanov

• PhD
• Professor (Associate) at University of New Hampshire

Cryosphere has a global role as a biogeophysical phenomenon. It affects the livelihoods of people inhabiting permafrost areas and is affected by human activity within and outside of the cryosphere’s geographical span. ‘Frozen commons’ (FCs) are cryosphere resources and landscapes, defined by snow, ice, and permafrost, that are experienced, used, pr...

Regional warming and associated changes in hydrologic systems pose challenges to water supply management in river basins of the western United States and call for improved understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of runoff. We apply a network of total width, subannual width, and delta blue intensity tree-ring chronologies in combinatio...

Wildfire is an essential form of natural disturbance for the Earth system, and it is challenging for the current numerical models to accurately retrieve the spatiotemporal distributions of wildfire occurrence. One of the deficiencies could result from the parameterization of anthropogenic impact on wildfire occurrences. This study develops an appro...

Rapid warming due to human-caused climate change is reshaping the Arctic, enhanced by physical processes that cause the Arctic to warm more quickly than the global average, collectively called Arctic amplification. Observations over the past 40+ years show a transition to a wetter Arctic, with seasonal shifts and widespread disturbances influencing...

Rivers integrate processes occurring throughout their watersheds and are therefore sentinels of change across broad spatial scales. River chemistry also regulates ecosystem function across Earth’s land–ocean continuum, exerting control from the micro- (for example, local food web) to the macro- (for example, global carbon cycle) scale. In the rapid...

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) flux from rivers in the pan‐Arctic watershed represents an important connection between major terrestrial carbon stocks and the Arctic Ocean. Previous estimates of Arctic carbon flux and dissolved organic matter (DOM) seasonal dynamics have relied predominantly on measurements from the six major Arctic rivers, yet the...

Large rivers integrate processes occurring throughout their watersheds, and are therefore sentinels of change across broad spatial scales. Riverine chemistry also regulates ecosystem function across Earth’s land-ocean continuum, exerting control from the micro- (e.g., food web) to the macro- (e.g., carbon cycle) scale. In the rapidly warming Arctic...

Significance Russian rivers are the predominant source of riverine mercury to the Arctic Ocean, where methylmercury biomagnifies to high levels in food webs. Pollution controls are thought to have decreased late–20th-century mercury loading to Arctic watersheds, but there are no published long-term observations on mercury in Russian rivers. Here, w...

The Yenisei River is the largest contributor of freshwater and energy fluxes among all rivers draining to the Arctic Ocean. Modeling long-term variability of Eurasian runoff to the Arctic Ocean is complicated by the considerable variability of river discharge in time and space, and the monitoring constraints imposed by a sparse gauged-flow network...

Observations show increases in river discharge to the Arctic Ocean especially in winter over the last decades but the physical mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. We hypothesize that even in the absence of a precipitation increase, permafrost degradation alone can lead to increased annual river runoff. To test this hypoth...

The Arctic climate system is undergoing changes in its multiple components, including its hydrologic cycle, as documented in the preceding chapters. The future trajectory of the Arctic climate system becomes a major issue for adapting to anticipated impacts ranging from local-scale impacts on water security (hydropower, infrastructure, and human he...

River ice is critical for northern hydrology and ecosystems, such as the magnitude and timing of hydrologic extremes, i.e., low flows and floods. Historical data analyses and model studies clearly show widespread decreases in river ice thinness and duration due to climate warming across the northern regions. Reductions in river ice jam flooding may...

Various estimates of freshwater discharge to the Arctic Ocean with different methods and for different drainage areas have shown a good consistency in long-term mean runoff ranging from 200 mm/year to 226 mm/year. Most of the estimates are derived from available discharge measurements at the downstream gauging stations. According to the most recent...

During the past three decades, sea water level (SWL) in the Caspian Sea has declined by about 2 m and sea area has decreased by about 15,000 km2. This has affected coastal communities, the environment and economically important gulfs of the sea (e.g. Dead Kultuk). To assess the effects of coastline change and evaluate zones vulnerable to desiccatio...

The Dry Land Belt (DLB) of Northern Eurasia is the largest contiguous dryland on Earth. Changes in DLB during the last century have included resource extraction (e.g., coal, oil, gas, and mineral ores), rapid land cover and land use change (e.g., expansion of irrigated croplands and cities), institutional shifts (e.g., collapse of the Soviet Union,...

Humans have been changing the environment word-wide. Central Asia is a great example of a region that is strongly affected by human (anthropogenic) related activities. Political and economic transformations that have been occurring throughout the region have also been strongly affecting the environment. As a result, unprecedented changes have occur...

Land-ocean linkages are strong across the circumpolar north, where the Arctic Ocean accounts for 1% of the global ocean volume and receives more than 10% of the global river discharge. Yet, estimates of Arctic riverine mercury (Hg) export constrained from direct Hg measurements remain sparse. Here, we report results from a coordinated, year-round s...

The dryland belt (DLB) in Northern Eurasia is the largest contiguous dryland on Earth. During the last century, changes here have included land use change (e.g. expansion of croplands and cities), resource extraction (e.g. coal, ores, oil, and gas), rapid institutional shifts (e.g. collapse of the Soviet Union), climatic changes, and natural distur...

Pan-Arctic riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fluxes represent a major transfer of carbon from land-to-ocean and past scaling estimates have been predominantly derived from the six major Arctic rivers. However, smaller watersheds are constrained to northern high-latitude regions and particularly with respect to the Eurasian Arctic have receive...

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been de...

The Arctic freshwater cycle is changing rapidly, which will require adequate monitoring of river flows to detect, observe and understand changes and provide adaptation information. There has however been little detail about where the greatest flow changes are projected, and where monitoring therefore may need to be strengthened. In this study, we u...

We present an approach and first results of a collaborative project being carried out by a joint team of researchers from the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Russia and Earth Systems Research Center UNH, USA. Its main objective is development of a hardware and software platform prototype of a Distributed Research Center...

The Rapid Integrated Mapping and analysis System (RIMS) has been developed at the University of New Hampshire as an online instrument for multidisciplinary data visualization, analysis and manipulation with a focus on hydrological applications. Recently it was enriched with data and tools to allow more sophisticated analysis of interdisciplinary da...

We describe the contemporary hydrography of the pan-Arctic land area draining into the Arctic Ocean, northern Bering Sea, and Hudson Bay on the basis of observational records of river discharge and computed runoff. The Regional Arctic Hydrographic Network data set, R-ArcticNET, is presented, which is based on 3754 recording stations drawn from Russ...

Role of changing climatic conditions on permafrost degradation and hydrology was investigated in the transition zone between the tundra and forest ecotones at the boundary of continuous and discontinuous permafrost of the lower Yenisei River. Three watersheds of various sizes were chosen to represent the characteristics of the regional landscape co...

To understand and respond to changes in the world's northern regions, we need a coordinated system of long-term Arctic observations. River networks naturally integrate across landscapes and link the terrestrial and ocean domains. Changes in river discharge reflect changes in the terrestrial water balance, whereas changes in water chemistry are link...

The Eurasian Arctic contains some of the largest rivers on Earth. Our synthesis of river monitoring data reveals that the average annual discharge of freshwater from the six largest Eurasian rivers (Yenisey, Lena, Ob', Kolyma, Pechora, S. Dvina) to the Arctic Ocean increased about 7% from 1936 through 1999. Correspondence between discharge from the...

This paper looks at the response of river ice to recent warming in the Arctic at six major downstream gauges on large Russian rivers flowing to the Arctic Ocean. For the Severnaya Dvina, Ob, Yenisey, Lena, Yana and Kolyma we determine how river ice has changed in recent years and we try to understand the underlying causes of those changes. Long-ter...

This chapter discusses the hydrology of rivers at high latitudes, which includes all freshwater flows to the Arctic Ocean and northern seas. We begin by looking at the extent and quality of monitoring river discharge in these cold regions. This has a significant impact on the ability for scientists to understand the hydrological changes taking plac...

This chapter provides a brief description of the information resources currently supporting environmental studies of Siberia including key references and points of contact. It describes environmental, hydrological, and meteorological datasets available for Siberia as well as the tools developed to organize and seamlessly deliver these data to the i...

Warming of recent decades coincides with the overall increase in runoff from Siberian rivers to the Arctic Ocean. Significant changes in moisture budgets and contributing components have been observed. Changes in precipitation are usually considered as the primary cause of any alteration to the hydrological regime and this is often the default assu...

This chapter looks at several aspects of the hydrological regime across Siberia using long-term historical data and model simulation results to provide a better understanding of ongoing changes and future directions. It begins with a survey of the major components of water balance: river flow, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. This is followed...

This chapter summarizes the volume content focusing on land change in Siberia. The volume is compilation of results of the most recent international studies of Earth’s system interactions including biogeochemical and water cycles, natural ecosystems changes, and human impacts on environment. Outstanding scientific challenges are outlined as they we...

Introduction The pan-Arctic watershed Observational data—historical to contemporary time series Projections of future fluxes Conclusions Acknowledgments References

Background/Question/Methods The vast Drylands East Asia (DEA) consists of several large geographic regions including the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Loess Plateau, and Mongolia Plateau. The region is of great importance to the functioning of the earth system under a changing climate. In the past three decades, due to the unprecedented land use/land cov...

Historical and contemporary changes in various components of the hydrological cycle across the Northern Eurasia have been investigated using multiple observational and modeled data compiled in Rapid Integrated Mapping and Analysis System (RIMS) for North Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI). To evaluate potential future patterns o...

The Caspian Sea Basin (catchments) area occupies the vast European and Asian territory between approx. 330-580 N latitude and 300-620 E longitude. In comparison with other world great natural lakes, the Caspian Sea ranks first in watershed area (3660,000 km2) and also in a total annual rivers runoff (340 km3/year - long-term average value). The Ca...

Russia's West Siberian Lowland (WSL) contains the most extensive peatlands on Earth with many underlain by permafrost. We present a new database of 12 705 measurements of vertical water content and bulk soil properties from 98 permafrost and non-permafrost cores collected in raised bogs and peat plateaus across the region, together with in-situ mea...

Snow cover plays a major role in the climate, hydrological and ecological systems of the Arctic and other regions through its influence on the surface energy balance (e.g. reflectivity), water balance (e.g. water storage and release), thermal regimes (e.g. insulation), vegetation and trace gas fluxes. Feedbacks to the climate system have global con...

Streamflow is an integrated characteristic that reflects numerous environmental processes occurring over the upstream drainage area. River discharge plays a significant role in the fresh-water budget of the Arctic Ocean and controls ocean salinity and sea ice formation with potential impact on the North Atlantic deep water formation and global ocea...

A web-based information and computational system for analysis of spatially distributed Earth system, climate, and hydrologic data have been developed. The System allows visualization, data exploration, querying, manipulation and arbitrary calculations with any loaded gridded or vector polygon dataset. The system's acronym, RIMS, stands for its core...

Several large-scale climate patterns influenced climate conditions and weather patterns across the globe during 2010. The transition from a warm El Nino phase at the beginning of the year to a cool La Nina phase by July contributed to many notable events, ranging from record wetness across much of Australia to historically low Eastern Pacific basin...

The magnitude of natural and anthropogenic changes in hydrological systems is one of the major scientific questions yet to be addressed. Relative to climatic effects, dam impacts are much more direct and often cause abrupt changes in the water regimes of rivers. We expect these changes to be evident and detectable in the mean annual discharge (MAD)...

Recent analyses of long-term historical records identify major changes in hydrologic characteristics over Siberia. These include significant increases in fall and winter discharge at the basin outlets (particularly for the Yenesei basin), a decrease of river ice thickness over the Lena River, and a shift of the Ob River's maximum monthly discharge...

The Water Systems Analysis Group at the University of New Hampshire, USA in close collaboration with international partners has recently developed a new regional monitoring and analysis system for northern Eurasia to facilitate integration between water related projects involved in North Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI). The s...

By understanding the spatial variability of areas at high latitudes that are most sensitive to climate change, we can begin to focus on those regions in which the human populations will be more or less vulnerable to change. Using multiple variables to describe the human-biophysical system combined together, we get a single snapshot of the ``hot spo...

The water cycle is a vital component of the North Eurasian environment and plays a central role in the region's climate, biology, biogeochemistry and in human interactions with the natural environment. The Northern Eurasian arctic drainage covers more than 2/3 of the pan-arctic land mass. Substantial changes in land cover and land use have occurred...

Hydrological cycle intensification is an expected manifestation of a warming climate. We examine the quantitative significance of changes in freshwater fluxes across observational time series alongside those from a suite of coupled general circulation models for both the terrestrial pan-Arctic and Arctic Ocean. Trends in terrestrial fluxes from obs...

The pan-Arctic water cycle plays a central role in regulating Earth's climate and its role is increasing with mounting evidence that it is today experiencing an unprecedented degree of change. To better understand these alterations it is important to explore potential signals of global climate change and to assess their feedbacks to regional hydrol...

The magnitude of natural and anthropogenic changes in hydrological systems is one of the major scientific questions yet to be answered. The streamflow of the Ob, Yenisei and Lena Rivers has been altered by human through impoundments and diversions to meet water, energy and transportation needs. On seasonal scale, control of flow during spring and e...

The Arctic water cycle has experienced an unprecedented degree of change which may have planetary-scale impacts. The year 2007 in particular not only was unique in terms of minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean but also was a record breaking year for Eurasian river inflow to the Arctic Ocean. Over the observational period from 1936 to 2006, th...

1] Discharge from large Eurasia rivers increased during the 20th century, yet much remains unknown regarding details of this increasing freshwater flux. Here, for the three largest Eurasian basins (the Ob, Yenisei, and Lena) we examine the nature of annual and seasonal discharge trends by investigating the flow changes along with those for precipit...

Northern Eurasia, the largest land-mass in the northern extratropics, accounts for ∼20% of the global land area. However, little is known about how the biogeochemical cycles, energy and water cycles, and human activities specific to this carbon-rich, cold region interact with global climate. A major concern is that changes in the distribution of la...

River runoff is an important integrator of hydrological behavior across large regions and it plays a significant role in the fresh-water budget of the Arctic Ocean. Ocean salinity and sea ice formation are critically affected by river input. Changes in the fresh water flux to the Arctic Ocean may slow down global ocean circulation by affecting Nort...

Mackenzie River discharge was at a record low in water year (WY) 1995 (October 1994 to September 1995), was near average in WY 1996, and was at a record high in WY 1997. The record high discharge in WY 1997, with above average flow each month, was followed by a record high flow in May 1998, then a sharp decline. Through diagnosing these changing fl...

Evidence of significant change in the arctic environment has been established. Freeze/thaw cycles have shifted, surface air temperatures have warmed, and river discharge from the Eurasian landmass to the Arctic Ocean is exhibiting ongoing increases. Winter and spring discharge largely comprise the majority of the positive trend in annual discharge...

Aral Sea basin has undergone significantly negative environmental alterations over the past 50 years. Water- related stress involves all of key agents of global change: land use/cover change and land degradation, pollution, over-exploitation of surface and groundwater, and climate change/variability. This region is thus emblematic of water cycle ch...

There continues to be widespread and, in some cases, dramatic evidence of an overall warming of the Arctic system. Atmosphere: 5° C temperature increases were recorded in autumn Ocean: Observed increase in temperature of surface and deep ocean layers Sea Ice: Near-record minimum summer sea ice extent Greenland: Records set in both duration and exte...

During the last several thousand years the semi-arid, cold climate of the Russian steppe formed highly fertile soils rich in organic carbon and calcium (classified as Chernozems in the Russian system). Analysis of archived soil samples collected in Kemannaya Steppe Preserve in 1920, 1947, 1970, and fresh samples collected in 1998 indicated that the...

1] A first analysis of new daily discharge data for 111 northern rivers from 1936–1999 and 1958–1989 finds an overall pattern of increasing minimum daily flows (or ''low flows'') throughout Russia. These increases are generally more abundant than are increases in mean flow and appear to drive much of the overall rise in mean flow observed here and...

drainage basin with watershed areas from 16.1 to 50,000 km2 for signs of change in maximum river discharge. Several hypotheses about changes in maximum daily discharge and their linking with trends in precipitation over the cold season were tested. For the magnitude of maximum daily discharge we found relatively equal numbers of significant positiv...

Analysis of archived soil samples collected in Kemannaya Steppe Preserve in 1920, 1947, 1970, and fresh samples collected in 1998 indicated that the native steppe soil lost 17-28 kg m-2 of calcium in the form of carbonates in 1970-1998. Here we demonstrate that the loss of calcium was caused by fundamental shift in the steppe hydrologic balance. Pr...

A first analysis of new daily discharge data for 111 northern rivers from 1936-1999 and 1958-1989 finds an overall pattern of increasing minimum daily flows (low-flows) throughout Russia. The increases are generally more ubiquitous than are increases in mean flow, occur in summer as well as winter, and occur in non-permafrost as well as permafrost...

Evidence pointing to significant change in the hydrological regime over the North Eurasian region were analyzed. Understanding alterations due to both global climate change and local anthropogenic influences are important to explore potential signals of global climate change and to assess their feedbacks to hydrological systems and the global clima...

It is expected that a warming climate will be attended by an intensification of the global hydrological cycle. While there are signs of positive trends in several hydrological quantities emerging at the global scale, the scope, character, and quantitative significance of these changes are not well established. In particular, long-term increases in...

We introduce a new Arctic river temperature data set covering 20 gauges in 17 unique Arctic Ocean drainage basins in the Russian pan-Arctic (ART-Russia). Warm season 10-day time step data (decades) were collected from Russian archival sources covering a period from 1929 to 2003 with most data falling in the range from the mid-1930s to the early 199...

Collectively, the observations indicate that the overall warming of the Arctic system continued in 2007. There are some elements that are stabilizing or returning to climatological norms. These mixed tendencies illustrate the sensitivity and complexity of the Arctic System. Atmosphere: Hot spot shifts toward Europe Ocean: North Pole Temperatures at...

There is a growing body of evidence pointing to significant environmental change in the north polar region and in particular in the Eurasian pan-Arctic. These changes are important not only as potential signals of global climate change, but also through their feedbacks to the global climate and hydrological systems and to their impacts upon humans....

The fresh water cycle is under rapid transformation. Climate change has clear ramifications for global hydrology, with major concerns surrounding the links of progressive greenhouse warming to extreme weather and reduced reliability of water resources. But several other factors, until recently largely ignored, are proving to be globally significant...

Recent documented changes in polar, land-surface hydrology are consistent with assessments which suggest that a major consequence of global warming will involve an intensification of the water cycle. Understanding the complex linkages and feedbacks among components of the arctic water cycle requires a synthesis of data such as river discharge, prec...

River systems are a vital network connection between terrestrial and ocean systems, transporting freshwater, nutrients, and sediments, from the land to the sea. Many large-scale regional and global studies have been done concerning the origin and fate of nutrients, sediments, and pollutants in rivers, but very few studies have addressed the tempera...

This State of the Arctic Report presents a review of recent data by an international group of scientists who developed a consensus on the information content and reliability. The report highlights data primarily from 2000 to 2005 with a first look at winter 2006, providing an update to some of the records of physical processes discussed in the Arct...

We develop an error model to understand the reliability and accuracy of river discharge datasets that are now being used for a variety of important global change questions. The developed error model for cold region river discharge uses standard hydrometric data along with information on the frequency and precision of measurements, characteristics o...

To more fully understand the role of precipitation in observed increases in freshwater discharge to the Arctic Ocean, data from a new archive of bias-adjusted precipitation records for the former USSR (TD9813), along with the CRU and Willmott-Matsuura data sets, were examined for the period 1936-1999. Across the six largest Eurasian river basins, s...

This State of the Arctic Report presents a review of recent data by an international group of scientists who developed a consensus on the information content and reliability. The report highlights data primarily from 2000 to 2005 with a first look at winter 2006, providing an update to some of the records of physical processes discussed in the Arct...

Many Siberian and Northern European rivers have experienced catastrophic flooding during last 10-15 years. These floods are associated mainly with spring flow peak formed as a result of snow melting. Analysis of these extreme events over the extensive territory of the Eurasian pan-Arctic is difficult due to a lack of published daily stage data for...

The importance of Arctic river systems to regional and global environments has been well documented. Recently observed increases in freshwater discharge may influence Arctic Ocean ice pack dynamics and, by extension, have a substantial impact on thermohaline circulation and global climate. Despite its critical role as both a driver and an indicator...

The importance of Arctic river systems to regional and global environments has been well documented. In particular, recently observed increases in freshwater discharge may influence Arctic Ocean ice pack dynamics and, by extension, have a substantial impact on global climate. Despite its critical role as both a driver and an indicator of climate ch...

This study analyzes long-term (1936-90) monthly streamflow records for the major subbasins within the Ob River watershed in order to examine discharge changes induced by human activities (particularly reservoirs and agricultural activities) and natural variations. Changes in streamflow pattern were found to be different between the upper and lower...