
Alexander MihailovUniversity of Reading · Department of Economics
Alexander Mihailov
PhD in Economics, 2004, Université de Lausanne
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58
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Introduction
Additional affiliations
September 2003 - August 2006
Education
October 1998 - August 2003
Publications
Publications (58)
This paper examines the implications for equilibrium determinacy of forward-looking monetary policy rules in a Neo-Wicksellian model that incorporates real balance effects. We show that in closed economies the presence of small, empirically plausible real balance effects significantly restricts the ability of the Taylor principle to prevent indeter...
This paper aims to explain the rise and fall of communism by exploring the interplay between economic incentives and social preferences transmitted by ideology. We introduce inequality-averse and inefficiency-averse agents and analyze their conflict through the interaction between leaders with economic power and followers with ideological determin...
This paper applies GMM estimation to assess empirically the small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve derived in Galí and Monacelli (2005). We obtain a testable specification where fluctuations in the terms of trade enter explicitly, thus allowing a comparison of the relevance of domestic versus external determinants of CPI inflation dynamics...
We propose a simple, yet sufficiently encompassing classification scheme of monetary economics. It comprises three fundamental fields and six recent areas that expand within and across these fields. The elements of our scheme are not found together and in their mutual relationships in earlier studies of the relevant literature, neither is this an a...
This paper compares exchange rate pass-through to aggregate prices in the US, Germany and Japan across a number of dimensions. Building on the empirical approaches in the recent literature, our contribution is to perform a thorough sensitivity analysis of pass-through estimates. We find that the econometric method, data frequency and variable proxy...
Motivated by the sharp increases in public spending following the global financial crisis, we employ the GMM Panel VAR approach at annual frequency between 2004 and 2014 to investigate the dynamic response of alternative income distribution variables to shocks imposed on tax revenues and three key components of social expenditures: social protectio...
This interdisciplinary paper blends knowledge from computer science and economics in proposing a complex dynamic system subpopulation model for a blockchain form of local complementary currency, generic to the Grassroots Economics Foundation’s Community Inclusion Currency (CIC) implemented in Kenya. Our contribution to the emerging economics litera...
Motivated by the sharp increases in public spending following the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, we employ the GMM Panel VAR approach at annual frequency between 2004-2014 to investigate the response of alternative income distribution variables to shocks imposed on tax revenues and three key components of social expenditures: so...
This article uses a survey amongst students at European universities to explore whether Russia's invasion of Ukraine has affected attitudes towards European integration. Some respondents completed the survey just before Russia's assault on 24 February 2022, and some did so just afterwards, thus delivering a quasi-experimental design situation, whic...
This article uses a survey amongst students at European universities to explore whether Russia's invasion of Ukraine has affected attitudes towards European integration. Some respondents completed the survey just before Russia's assault on 24 February 2022, and some did so just afterwards, thus delivering a quasi‐experimental design situation, whic...
This paper contributes to the theory of optimal international reserves by extending the Jeanne-Rancière (Econ J 121:905-930, 2011) endowment small open economy (SOE) model to a SOE with production that accounts for the main sources of economic growth. We, first, derive a richer analytical version of the optimal reserves formula in our set-up, essen...
This paper uses a survey among students at European universities to explore whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has affected attitudes toward European integration. Some respondents completed the survey just before Russia’s assault on February 24, 2022, and some did so just afterwards, thus delivering a quasi-experimental design situation, which we...
For decades, the monetary economics literature has considered multiple deposit
expansion via the money multiplier as empirically corroborated. However, the de-
velopments witnessed in advanced economies since the Global Financial Crisis chal-
lenged this settled view. We revisit the issue empirically, but also within a nar-
rative context of the ev...
This paper explores the properties of dynamic aggregate housing models. In conventional models, in response to demand shocks the primary adjustment mechanism is through prices and changes in housing supply. However, the size of the supply response depends on the price elasticity of supply and in countries such as the UK where the elasticity is low,...
This paper employs Bayesian estimation to uncover the central bank preferences of the five Latin American inflation targeting countries with floating exchange rates: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. The target weights of each country’s central bank loss function are estimated using a medium-scale small open economy New Keynesian model wit...
Does theory aid inflation forecasting? To address this question, we develop a novel forecasting procedure based upon a New Keynesian Phillips Curve that incorporates time-varying trend inflation, to capture shifts in central bank preferences and monetary policy frameworks. We generate theory-implied predictions for both the trend and cyclical compo...
Developments in macro-econometrics have been evolving since the aftermath of the SecondWorld War.[...]
This paper addresses empirically the still debated issue of the legitimacy of the European Central Bank (ECB) with regard to European polities, presenting evidence on public opinion support for the ECB as elicited from responses in the recent waves of the Eurobarometer survey. We employ a rich set of potential determinants, combining macroeconomic...
This paper aims to explain the rise and fall of communism by exploring the interplay between economic incentives and social preferences transmitted by ideology. We introduce inequality-averse and inefficiency-averse agents and analyze their conflict through the interaction between leaders with economic power and followers with ideological determina...
The present paper builds on certain implications of the theoretical new-open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) literature as well as on recent empirical studies of aggregate exchange rate pass-through to compare and interpret its likely range during the last two decades of the 20th century in the three largest national economies of the world. A princip...
In this paper we evaluate the relative influence of external versus domestic inflation drivers in the 12 new European Union (EU) member countries. Our empirical analysis is based on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) derived in Gal and Monacelli (2005) for small open economies (SOE). Employing the generalized method of moments (GMM), we find t...
We study the evolution of inflation aversion preferences across generations. In the theoretical part of the paper, we analyze the dynamics of such preferences in an overlapping-generations model with heterogenous mature agents characterized by different degrees of inflation aversion. We show how the stability of a society’s degree of inflation aver...
The democratic accountability of policymaking institutions which are autonomous within delegated mandates has not received as much attention as their independence. We analyze in a theoretical model the effects of accountability inthe form of possible overriding of economic policy decisions by the government under different degrees of independence o...
We develop an overlapping-generations framework with endogenous trans-mission of heterogeneous degrees of inflation aversion in response to social learning from past and own inflation experience. Preference transmission occurs via two channels: 'socialization', whereby parents and peers affect the adoption of a given trait, degree of inflation aver...
This paper re-considers the importance of trade openness for equilibrium determinacy when monetary policy is characterized by interest-rate rules. We develop a two-country, sticky-price model where money enters the utility function in a non-separable manner. Forward- and current-looking policy rules that react to domestic or consumer price inflatio...
This paper demonstrates that recent influential contributions to monetary policy imply an emerging consensus whereby neither rigid rules nor complete discretion are found optimal. Instead, middle-ground monetary regimes based on rules (operative under ‘normal’ circumstances) to anchor inflation expectations over the long run, but designed with enou...
We ask whether a shift to instrument independence affects central bank behavior when monetary policy is already operating under the constrained discretion of an inflation targeting goal. Taking advantage of the unique UK experience to identify such an exogenous break, we estimate Taylor rules via alternative methods, specifications and proxies. We...
We investigate whether increased independence affects central bank behavior when monetary policy is already in an inflation targeting regime. Taking advantage of the recent UK experience to identify such an exogenous change, we estimate Taylor rules via alternative methods, specifications and proxies. Our contribution is to detect two novel results...
This paper evaluates empirically the feedback and stance of monetary policy in the United Kingdom under inflation targeting, implemented since October 1992. Its principal contribution is in comparing two subsamples, before the Bank of England was granted operational independence in May 1997 and after that. We find that the operational independence...
Scientists and epistemologists generally agree that a scientific law must be (a) relatively simple and (b) not contradicted by the available evidence. In this paper we propose and test one such law pertaining to international economics, the triple-parity law. It integrates three well-known equilibrium conditions, which are shown to prevail in the l...
This paper is an empirical investigation into the question of whether increased independence affects central bank behavior, in particular when monetary policy is already in an inflation targeting regime. We take advantage of the unique experience in that sense of the United Kingdom, where the Bank of England was granted operational independence fro...
This paper compares the empirical range of aggregate exchange rate pass-through in the US, Germany and Japan during the 1980s and the 1990s. Our main contribution is to focus on monthly data, to better account for real-world price level stickiness and exchange rate volatility. Another import is that we take robustness seriously and obtain our resul...
This paper compares the empirical range of aggregate exchange rate pass- through in the US, Germany and Japan during the 1980s and the1990s. Our main contribution is to focus on monthly data, to better account for real-world price level stickiness and exchange rate volatility. Another import is that we take robustness seriously and obtain our resul...
This paper extends stochastic research in new open-economy macro- economics (NOEM) to study the effects of the exchange-rate regime on international trade in a more realistic, yet rigorous, analytical set-up. We essentially incorporate "iceberg" costs, inducing home bias, into a unified framework which nests trade between countries that produce sim...
Capital controls have long been an instrument of economic policy, even in the industrialised countries before the 1980s. But – by analogy with free trade in goods – mainstream economic theory has since then generally shifted to a defence of unrestricted capital movements as beneficial over the long run. The usual textbook arguments in favour of cap...
Thèse sc. écon. Lausanne (pas d'échange). Literaturverz.
The paper compares exchange rate pass-through on aggregate prices in the US, Germany and Japan across a number of dimensions. Building on the empirical approaches in the recent literature, our contribution is to perform a thorough sensitivity analysis of alternative pass-through estimates. We find that the econometric method, data frequency and var...
In a baseline stochastic new open-economy macroeconomics (NOEM) model which parallels alternative invoicing conventions, namely consumer's currency pricing (CCP) vs. producer's currency pricing (PCP), we revisit the question whether the exchange-rate regime matters for trade. We show analytically that under full symmetry, only money shocks and sepa...
The present paper, a rather synthetic and provocative one, proposes answers to two related, recently worrisome and frequently asked questions, as clear from the title. (i) Did the Swiss economy really stagnate in the 1990s? Although we would prefer to term it "weak real growth" instead of outright "stagnation", there has indeed been a problem of th...
This paper starts by reviewing the recent literature on antitrust laws in banking from the perspective of general economic analysis. We focus on the US experience for didactic reasons and as a background against which the Swiss case is discussed further on. After an introductory section, we examine some facts about the process of bank expansion, co...