Alexander Bakker

Alexander Bakker
Rijkswaterstaat

PhD

About

30
Publications
3,673
Reads
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606
Citations
Additional affiliations
October 2006 - October 2014
Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut
Position
  • Researcher

Publications

Publications (30)
Article
Full-text available
1] Climate change will increase winter precipitation, and in combination with earlier snowmelt it will cause a shift in peak discharge in the Rhine basin from spring to winter. This will probably lead to an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme floods. In this paper we aim to enhance the simulation of future low-probability flood peak...
Article
Full-text available
Designing decision analytical models requires making choices that can involve a range of trade-offs and interactions between epistemic and ethical considerations. Such choices include determining the complexity of a model and deciding what types of risk will be assessed. Here, we demonstrate how model design choices can involve trade-offs between t...
Article
Full-text available
Strategies to manage the risks posed by future sea-level rise hinge on a sound characterization of the inherent uncertainties. One of the major uncertainties is the possible rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to rising global temperatures. This could potentially lead to several meters of sea-level rise du...
Article
Full-text available
Simple models can play pivotal roles in the quantification and framing of uncertainties surrounding climate change and sea-level rise. They are computationally efficient, transparent, and easy to reproduce. These qualities also make simple models useful for the characterization of risk. Simple model codes are increasingly distributed as open source...
Article
Full-text available
There is a growing awareness that uncertainties surrounding future sea-level projections may be much larger than typically perceived. Recently published projections appear widely divergent and highly sensitive to non-trivial model choices. Moreover, the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) may be much less stable than previous believed, enabling a rapid...
Article
Full-text available
Long-term flood risk management often relies on future sea-level projections. Projected uncertainty ranges are however widely divergent as a result of different methodological choices. The IPCC has condensed this deep uncertainty into a single uncertainty range covering 66% probability or more. Alternatively, structured expert judgment summarizes d...
Article
Full-text available
Sea-level rise is a key driver of projected flooding risks. The design of strategies to manage these risks often hinges on projections that inform decision-makers about the surrounding uncertainties. Producing semi-empirical sea-level projections is difficult, for example, due to the complexity of the error structure of the observations, such as ti...
Book
Full-text available
You can download Risk Analysis in the Earth Sciences: A Lab Manual with Exercises in R from https://leanpub.com/raes. Greenhouse gas emissions have caused considerable changes in climate, including increased surface air temperatures and rising sea levels. Rising sea levels increase the risks of flooding for people living near the world’s coastlin...
Article
Full-text available
The wind climate and its possible change in a warming world are important topics for many applications, among which are marine and coastal safety and wind energy generation. Therefore, wind is an important variable to investigate for climate change scenarios. In developing the wind part of the KNMI’14 climate change scenarios, output from several m...
Article
Full-text available
The Netherlands is a low-lying coastal area and therefore threatened by both extreme river discharges from the Meuse and Rhine rivers and storm surges along the North Sea coastline. To date, in most flood risk analyses these two hazardous phenomena are considered independent. However, if there were a dependence between high sea water levels and ext...
Thesis
Full-text available
The strong global warming of the last 150 years and the expected continuation at an even higher rate has raised the concern among decision makers. The political debate and decisions are, however, complicated by the large disagreements and 'deep' uncertainties involved. Several decaces ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was es...
Article
Excessive summer drying and reduced growing season length are expected to reduce European crop yields in future. This may be partly compensated by adapted crop management, increased CO2 concentration and technological development. For food security, changes in regional to continental crop yield variability may be more important than changes in mean...
Article
The main windiness index in the Netherlands (Windex-CBS) has been subject to a decreasing trend since the systematic recording started in 1988. This seriously complicates the estimation of future long-term wind supply. Therefore, it is necessary to know the main causes of the reported decline. For this purpose, Windex-CBS, derived from actual wind...
Technical Report
Full-text available
De komende decennia verandert het klimaat, landgebruik en de manier van landbouw en natuurbeheer. Wat betekent dit voor grondwater, landbouw en natuur die afhankelijk zijn van voldoende water van de juiste kwaliteit? De waterbeheerders hebben behoefte aan kwantitatieve inzichten en bijkomende onzekerheden zodat zij de komende jaren goed op de veran...
Article
Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to develo...
Article
Full-text available
In het kader van het Nationaal Modellen- en Datacentrum (NMDC) is in 2011 het NMDC innovatieproject 'Integraal waterbeheer - van kritische zone tot kritische onzekerheden' gestart (www.nmdc.eu). Dit project heeft tot doel om de modellen voor bodem, water, vegetatie en klimaat(verandering) door samenwerking beter op elkaar aan te laten sluiten, daar...
Article
Wind climate in Northwest Europe is subject to long-term persistence (LTP), also called the Hurst phenomenon. Ignorance of LTP causes underestimation of climatic variability. The quantification of multi-year variability is important for the assessment of the uncertainty of future multi-year wind yields. Estimating LTP requires long homogeneous time...
Article
Different measures for wind energy potential show very different long-term variations and trends. This seriously complicates the estimation of future long-term wind supply. Therefore, it is necessary to better understand these discrepancies. know the main causes of the reported decline. For this purpose different types of indices for the Netherland...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Parallel to the development of the KNMI’06 climate scenarios in 2006 a tool was developed to generate temperature and precipitation time series for the future (http://climexp.knmi.nl/Scenarios_monthly/). These time series are often needed for climate impact and adaptation models. The aim of this time series transformation tool is to adjust a hi...
Article
Scenario analyses are regularly characterised by a large number of degrees of freedom. It is usually unfeasible to perform sophisticated hydrological simulations with continuous long-term meteorological time series for all combinations of scenarios and adaptation strategies. To reduce computation time while retaining sufficient degrees of freedom,...
Article
A climate model is said to be biased if the statistical characteristics of the model output significantly differ from the observed climate. In general even key-parameters as the mean precipitation can be substantially biased. This makes the direct use of the climate model output in impact studies inconvenient. However, climate impact models are reg...
Article
Climate change will increase winter precipitation, and in combination with earlier snowmelt it will cause a shift in peak discharge in the Rhine basin from spring to winter. This will probably lead to an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme floods. In this paper we aim to enhance the simulation of future low-probability flood peak eve...
Article
For the planning of new wind farms it is essential to have a good idea of the expected wind yields for the first 10 years. To acquire funding, however, it is just as important to have insight in the full uncertainty of the estimated 10-year energy yields. This uncertainty is partly caused by natural variability and partly by limited information abo...
Article
The economic viability of a proposed wind farm is determined by the estimated yield over its economic lifetime. To minimize financial risks detailed information about the future wind climate is needed. Observations over the past decades show a decrease of the yield up to 10%. The question is whether this is a trend that will continue, or that it is...

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