Alex Fergnani

Alex Fergnani
National University of Singapore | NUS · Department of Management & Organisation

Master of Science in Futures Studies
I'm currently doing research on the relation between corporate foresight and East Asian philosophies.

About

24
Publications
8,614
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219
Citations
Citations since 2016
24 Research Items
217 Citations
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Introduction

Publications

Publications (24)
Article
This article introduces the construct of corporate foresight to a strategy and management scholars’ audience. Corporate foresight is a dynamic, firm-level capability that allows firms to evaluate future scenarios of the business environment, including systematic doomsday collapses. Corporate foresight is defined, situated in the broader epistemolog...
Article
Wenzel’s response to Fergnani (2022) is a laudable effort to advance the study of corporate foresight practices and processes, an important yet underinvestigated area of research in management and strategy scholarship. Wenzel’s arguments encourage us to reflect not only on the arguments made by Fergnani (2022) but also on the core tenets of the fut...
Article
We analyzed 30 pandemic films and developed a processual model to explain the social-level coping mechanisms to confront pandemics as portrayed in films. The model describes the underlying collective understanding of disease outbreaks. The model suggests that pandemic films divide the disease outbreak into three phases: emergence, transmission, and...
Article
Purpose-The aim of this study is to trace the factors that have contributed to the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices within the Singapore Public Service, Government of Singapore. Design/methodology/approach-This study discusses the history of the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices in the Singapore Gover...
Article
Rejoinder to the 10 commentaries to the article: Fergnani, A., & Chermack, T. J. (2021). The resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight, and what to do about it. Futures and Foresight Science, e61. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.61
Article
In a turbulent environment, characterized by unexpected events, such as the COVID‐19 pandemic, a sharp oil price decline, and dramatic economic crises, many organizations face not only challenges but also an “identity crisis” as they are unable to respond to the question: who are we as an organization? Some organizations may concurrently hold multi...
Article
Full-text available
没有人知道未来是怎样的。既然如此,企业又该如何为这个充满各种可能性的烧脑未来做好准备呢?针对此,本文提供了几种方法可以降低未知陷阱带来的风险。
Article
We offer an argumentative explanation of the reasons why the field of futures and foresight has not been successful at becoming part of the social scientific establishment. We contend that the very set of norms, beliefs, and epistemological foundations of futures and foresight are essentially self‐sabotaging as they resist the creation of scientifi...
Article
China’s rising investment and engagement with countries in the Greater Middle East underlines its rising exposure to security threats in this region. The countries have been often associated with a high threat of terrorism thus increasing risk for various stakeholders. To analyse the potential ways these threats might unfold in the future, four sce...
Article
We propose a new scenario archetypes method generated by extracting a set of archetypal images of the future from a sample of 140 science fiction films set in the future using a grounded theory analytical procedure. Six archetypes emerged from the data, and were named Growth & Decay, Threats & New Hopes, Wasteworlds, The Powers that Be, Disarray, a...
Article
Full-text available
Nobody knows what the future holds in store. How, then, should businesses prepare for the mind-boggling array of scenarios that might arise in the coming years? It turns out there are ways to reduce the risk of being mauled by the savage beast of the unexpected, as this intriguing article explains.
Chapter
Full-text available
A simplified version of the article "Mapping futures studies scholarship from 1968 to present: A bibliometric review of thematic clusters, research trends, and research gaps" (Futures, 105: 104-123)
Article
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to introduce the Futures Triangle 2.0, a methodological advancement of the Futures Triangle method (Inayatullah, 2008), which better integrates the original method with Scenario Planning by visually representing scenarios against the three dimensions of the Triangle, i.e. pulls, pushes and weights. Design/metho...
Article
Because the input for Futures Studies is to a very high degree formulated as written words and texts, methods which automate the processing of texts can substantially help Futures Studies. At Shaping Tomorrow, we have developed a software system using Natural Language Processing (NLP), a subfield of Artificial Intelligence, which automatically anal...
Article
Full-text available
We propose a scenario planning method that combines quantitative text analysis with the creation of scenario narratives. We design a variation in the scenario archetypes method (Dator, Journal of Futures Studies, 14, 1–18, 2009), a futures method to create four archetypal scenarios based on four predetermined generic alternative futures named conti...
Article
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to formally introduce the future persona, a futures method to let scenarios come to life. A future persona is a scenario-specific fictional individual living in the future scenario (s)he is meant to depict. The paper provides a formal, systematic and clear step-by-step guide on how to create engaging and effect...
Article
Full-text available
We propose a scenario planning method that combines quantitative text analysis with the creation of scenario narratives. We design a variation in the scenario archetypes method (Dator, Journal of Futures Studies, 14, 1–18, 2009), a futures method to create four archetypal scenarios based on four predetermined generic alternative futures named conti...
Article
This article provides a visual, objective and comprehensive review of the academic activity in futures studies from its origin (Futures, Volume 1, 1968) to present. Several bibliometric visualizations of the cumulated 50 years of futures studies scholarship are created to show 1) thematic clusters of research, 2) research intensity, 3) recent resea...
Article
Capitalism contributes to satisfy innate human instincts of selfishness, making humans psychologically attached to capitalistic practices. In contrast, economic, social and technological trends are pointing towards capitalism's dissolution. A global ideological conflict is emerging from the clash between these contrasting forces. To analyze the pos...

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Project (1)
Project
We draw from futures studies epistemology to lay the empirical foundations of the study of the futures of organizations. We introduce three concepts to inform our analysis: transformative images of the future, connection with the outside environment, and usage of theory on the futures in the present to positively shape the future. We investigate images of the futures of organizations with abductive grounded theory methods in the collective global imaginary using a sample of 110 films set in the future. We find that the collective global imaginary reflected in films is dominated by four images of the future. In each image, future organizations have a central role in symbolizing how future human beings cope with crises in the external environment. Specifically, organizations, through their conflictual relation with the protagonists in the films, are symbolized to have the important role of diverting the course of history, enacting responses to crises that alter their worsening effects and engender more positive outcomes for mankind. We discuss the symbolic meaning of these images of the future and suggest that normative transformational scholarship can improve the collective global imaginary of the futures of organizations in the present