Alex de Waal

Tufts University | Tufts · World Peace Foundation

International sponsors of South Sudan’s peace process should respond creatively to the delay in forming the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGNU). An intemperate response, which might include a new, immovable and near deadline or rapidly imposing sanctions, runs two risks. First, it jeopardizes the ceasefire—the truly substantial achieve...

After a long-term decline in the frequency and lethality of famines, 2017 has witnessed resurgent international concern over the issue. This paper examines the trends in famine over the last 150 years, with particular attention to the fusion of famine with forcible mass starvation. It identifies four main historic periods of famines, namely: the ze...

This paper examines how contests over military control were played out during peace negotiations and in the implementation of agreements (including the manipulation or violation of the terms of agreements) in Sudan between 2002 and 2011. The cases examined are the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of 2005, the Darfur peace talks which took place...

What Humanitarians Actually Do - Krause Monika, The Good Project: Humanitarian Relief NGOS and the Fragmentation of Reason (Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 2014) - Volume 55 Issue 3 - Alex De Waal

Humanity hosted an online symposium on the changing nature of knowledge production in fragile states. In light of the intensification of evidence-based policymaking and the “data revolution” in development, the symposium asks what the ethical and political implications are for qualitative research as a tool of governance. The symposium begins with...

Just a few years after becoming Africa's newest nation, South Sudan is embroiled in civil war and faces bankruptcy despite its ample oil wealth, thanks to a cynical scramble for the spoils of power.

This chapter explores the social and political production of human rights advocacy over the last 250 years, focusing on how social movements and human rights organizations relate to structures of political power, in the form of the modern nation state, and more particularly, variant forms of governmental power that exist in parts of the contemporar...

This article describes and analyzes patterns of lethal violence in Darfur, Sudan, during 2008-09, drawing upon a uniquely detailed dataset generated by the United Nations-African Union hybrid operation in Darfur (UNAMID), combined with data generated through aggregation of reports from open-source venues. These data enable detailed analysis of patt...

South Sudan obtained independence in July 2011 as a kleptocracy – a militarized, corrupt neo-patrimonial system of governance. By the time of independence, the South Sudanese “political marketplace” was so expensive that the country's comparatively copious revenue was consumed by the military-political patronage system, with almost nothing left for...

The question of how mass atrocities end has been dominated by a normative approach regarding how they ought to end. Arguing that an evidence-based approach to terminate mass atrocities might offer profound insights into theories of mass atrocities as well as policies designed to prevent or end their occurrence, this article outlines the key questio...

CLANS-IN-ARMS - Clan Cleansing in Somalia: The Ruinous Legacy of 1991. By LidwienKapteijns. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2013. Pp. x+308. $69.95, hardback (isbn978-0-8122-4467-0). - Volume 54 Issue 2 - ALEX DE WAAL

Sudan experienced two inspirational popular uprisings that brought down military dictatorships, but the ‘Arab Spring’ passed it by. This paper analyses social movements and armed resistance within the dualistic structure of Sudan's centre and periphery. A pattern of alternating military and parliamentary government has been superceded by a militari...

This essay identifies patterns in the organisation and character of social movements in Africa, drawing upon examples from sub-Saharan Africa and finding connections with the 2011 ‘Arab Spring’ uprisings. It pays attention to historicising social movements, global linkages and the problem of sustaining change. Rather than defining social movements...

The African Union's new offices in Addis Ababa stand upon the site of the city's former central prison, known as Alem Bekagn, where thousands of people suffered and died. This article traces the history of the prison and examines efforts to create a memorial at the site. These initiatives illustrate the African Union (AU) in transition. They echo A...

Libya's relationship with sub-Saharan Africa has been complex, troubled and misunderstood, both during the rule of the late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi and the conflict that culminated in his overthrow and death. The Libyan conflict of 2011 divided Africa, but nonetheless the African Union (AU) was able to agree on a political strategy aimed at a...

Like the ‘Brother Leader’ Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, Chadian President Idriss Déby Itno was born into a Bedouin lineage in the central Sahara. Over three decades as a soldier and politician, Déby came to know his Libyan enemy, rival and colleague as well as anyone. Déby was a senior officer in the Chadian army, which spent over a decade fighting the...

The little-known Sudanese region of Darfur achieved sudden notoriety in 2003–2004 as the locus of an intense civil war, massacres of civilians, a severe humanitarian crisis, and a strong campaign led by young Americans to intervene to halt what they identified as genocide. Almost from the outset, the Sudanese conflict in Darfur was internationalize...

In the months following his death on 20 August, Ethiopia's Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has been eulogized and demonized in equal measure. But his policies, and the transformational paradigm on which they were based, have rarely been elucidated. While alive, Meles was equally indifferent to praise and blame. To those who acclaimed Ethiopia's remarka...

Ten years after the HIV/AIDS epidemic itself was identified as a threat to international peace and security, findings from the three-year AIDS, Security and Conflict Initiative (ASCI)(1) present evidence of the mutually reinforcing dynamics linking HIV/AIDS, conflict and security.

Paradoxically, elements of cruelty are intrinsic to the humanitarian enterprise.(1) This paper focuses on some of these. Escapable cruelties arise from technical failings, but the gradual professionalisation of the field and improvements in relief technologies mean that they have been significantly reduced in comparison to earlier eras. Other cruel...

The recent activity at the International Criminal Court (ICC) at The Hague concerning the case of President Omar al-Bashir and the crisis in Darfur has set off a firestorm of commentary amongst international lawyers, human rights activists, genocide scholars, experts on Sudan, and journalists, among others. Some argue that the ICC prosecutor, Luis...

This paper draws upon the findings of the AIDS, Security and Conflict Initiative (ASCI) to reach conclusions about the relationship between HIV/AIDS, security, conflict and governance, in the areas of HIV/AIDS and state fragility, the reciprocal interactions between armed conflicts (including post-conflict transitions) and HIV/AIDS, and the impact...

The ‘new variant famine’ hypothesis posits links between HIV/AIDS and new patterns of impoverishment, food insecurity and hunger, in southern and eastern Africa. This paper explores the relevance of the NVF hypothesis to understanding Swaziland’s recurrent food crises and high HIV prevalence. Evidence exists that all four markers of NVF are present...

War is the major cause of famine in Africa. Wars cause famine in three major ways: (1) the direct destruction of battle, and the consumption of resources, including food, by armies; (2) famine is a weapon of war, particularly during sieges and for counterinsurgency purposes - strategies such as population relocation and restrictions on movement and...

Summaries This article attempts to synthesize a coherent analysis of the ways in which warfare in Africa has changed since the end of the Cold War. Strategies used by governments to combat insurgencies and counter the threat of military coups d'etat are assessed, contrasting the centralized military machine of the former Ethiopian government with t...

This article argues that food relief can be much less relevant to rural people's survival strategies during famine than is generally supposed. Evidence from the 1984/85 famine in Darfur, Sudan suggests that there it neither saved thousands of lives nor created a ‘dependency syndrome’. Excess deaths were related to ‘health crises’ precipitated by po...

Kofi Annan, UN Secretary General, stated that the International Criminal Court (ICC) continued to play a key role in upholding universal human rights and the rule of law throughout the world. He presented his views on the contributions of the court, while delivering a speech on the occasion of celebration of its foundation day. The ICC was created...

As the impacts of the HIV epidemic on children have become increasingly recognised, we can also see that they play a significant role in the dynamic of the epidemic itself, particularly in Africa. This editorial introduction examines three questions. The first is how best to prevent HIV infections among children and adolescents. Moving beyond behav...

Children affected by AIDS have been neglected within the two policy frameworks most relevant to addressing their situation, namely the exceptional global AIDS response and the revived enthusiasm for aid as an instrument for poverty reduction. Both these fields are the focus of vigorous new debates, which are conducted with scant regard to the issue...

Since the mid-1990s the UN, in tandem with major western powers, has embarked upon an ambitious effort of peace support operations in Africa. The results of what we may call the ‘Annan experiment’ are not yet in. But there are good reasons to fear that, in many African countries, such peace operations have defend normative outcomes that are beyond...

Written by two authors with unparalleled first-hand experience of Darfur, this is the definitive guide. Newly updated and hugely expanded, this edition details Darfur's history in Sudan. It traces the origins, organization and ideology of the infamous Janjawiid and rebel groups, including the Sudan Liberation Army and the Justice and Equality Movem...

THE HISTORY OF DARFUR - The Darfur Sultanate: A History. By O'FaheyR. S.. London: Hurst, 2008. Pp. xx+336. £35 (isbn978-1-85065-853-5). Darfur's Sorrow: A History of Destruction and Genocide. By DalyMartin W.. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007. Pp. xix+368. £45 (isbn978-0-52187-618-6); £14.95, paperback (isbn978-0-521-69962-4). - Volume 4...

When official representatives of more than 170 countries adopted the principle of the responsibility to protect (RP) at the September 2005 World Summit, Darfur was quickly identified as the test case for this new doctrine. The general verdict is that the international community has failed the test due to lack of political will. This article argues...

The HIV/AIDS epidemic is the biggest natural event in the history of our species for the last 500 years. Professor Roy Anderson, who has modelled the likely path of the epidemic, estimates that HIV/AIDS is a 130-year event. This, we contend, is an underestimate. HIV/AIDS has already put an indelible mark on the most affected societies, and that eff...

The argument rests upon an analysis of the resource base of the Somali political economy. As such, it is specifically concerned with riverine agricultural land, pastureland, remittances from overseas workers and the resources that can be captured and dispensed by a sovereign state, including foreign aid and currency ("sovereign rents"). It argues t...

Droughts in Ethiopia have commonly been associated with increased child mortality. Early indications were that the 2002/03 drought, which affected 13.2 million people, was no exception, despite a large relief operation. Humanitarian agencies reported sharp increases in child deaths and pockets of acute distress in some hard-hit localities. In respo...

This article examines four accepted wisdoms about HIV/AIDS and African armies and in each case concludes that substantial revision is necessary in the light of emerging evidence. First, it appears that military populations do not necessarily have a higher prevalence of HIV than civilian populations. HIV levels in armies depend on many factors inclu...

CHAD’S LONG-RUNNING WAR SPILLED OVER INTO DARFUR AND SET IN MOTION THE CRISIS THERE. NOW IT LOOKS AS IF IT’S RETURNING ACROSS THE BORDER, SOWING MAYHEM IN ITS WAKE

Résumé globalisation philanthropique et nouvelle solidarité

This article examines processes of identity formation in Darfur, now part of the Republic of Sudan, over the last four centuries. The basic story is of four overlapping processes of identity formation, each of them primarily associated with a different period in the region's history: namely, the `Sudanic identities'associated with the Dar Fur sulta...

IF WE ACCEPT COLIN POWELL’S ASSURANCE THAT GENOCIDE HAS BEEN COMMITTED IN SUDAN’S DARFUR REGION, THEN DON’T WE HAVE A LEGAL OBLIGATION TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT — OR IS THIS ABOUT SOMETHING ELSE ALTOGETHER?

In this article we examine the hypothesis that armed conflict increases HIV prevalence, using the case study of the Ethiopian Defence Forces and the civilian population of Tigray region of Ethiopia during the Ethio-Eritrean war of 1998–2000. The study utilises data sets for HIV prevalence in the region, before, during and after the conflict. These...

Background In this analysis of the global workforce, the Joint Learning Initiative—a consortium of more than 100 health leaders—proposes that mobilisation and strengthening of human resources for health, neglected yet critical, is central to combating health crises in some of the world's poorest countries and for building sustainable health systems...

…ABOUT AIDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIV/AIDS THREATENS THE SURVIVAL OF ENTIRE SOCIETIES IN AFRICA AND IS MOVING ON TO CREATE NEW EPICENTRES IN RUSSIA AND ASIA

Southern Africa is undergoing a food crisis of surprising scale and novelty. The familiar culprits of drought and mismanagement of national strategies are implicated. However, this crisis is distinct from conventional drought-induced food shortages with respect to those vulnerable to starvation, and the course of impoverishment and recovery. We pro...

AFRICA'S REASONS TO FEAR THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE ATTACK ON IRAQ

THERE IS NOTHING REMOTELY 'NORMAL' ABOUT SOUTHERN AFRICA'S LATEST FAMINE, AND NORMAL SOLUTIONS DO NOT APPLY

The HIV/AIDS pandemic in Africa has far‐reaching implications for governance and development. In addition to killing millions of individuals and causing serious economic contractions, the pandemic threatens structural transformations in African economies, institutions and governance. Decreased adult life expectancy has important adverse...

THE BLAME FOR AFRICA'S AIDS EPIDEMIC FALLS ON WARS, SOLDIERS AND CULTURES OF MILITARISATION. FIGHTING IT DEMANDS BETTER RESOURCES AND LEADERSHIP THAN AVAILABLE AT PRESENT

This article provides an overview of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) in the context of Africa’s current economic and governance crises, the attempt to establish an Africa Union, and the interest in Africa displayed by the G8 leadership and in particular by the UK’s prime minister Tony Blair. NEPAD has to be seen simultaneously...

US POLICY TOWARDS SUDAN AND SOMALIA ALLOWS US TO SEE SOME OF THE WIDER CONSEQUENCES OF 11 SEPTEMBER, ESPECIALLY IN AFRICA

1. Models of the economic impacts of HIV/AIDS are increasing in quality. An important lacuna is a model for the governance impact of the pandemic. There is a small literature on the fact that the pandemic is expected to have major consequences for peace and security, consisting of a few papers with a broad focus, 1 and others delving into questions...

Perspectives for peace in Sudan in 2002 ? Can the new international situation following the 11th of September create the basis for a new attempt to end the 19 year-long war in Somalia ? The American initiative analysed in this article appears to offer this hope. Yet it is handicapped by certain weaknesses : the internal divisions in the American po...

As I progressed further with my project, it became obvious that it was really unimportant where I chose to photograph. The particular place simply provided an excuse to produce work… you can only see what you are ready to see - what mirrors your mind at that particular time.

The Cold War was never cold in Africa. Militarisation, repression and outright war during the Cold War decades condemned Africa to a cycle from which it seems unable to escape

Reviews the book, The News Media, Civil War, and Humanitarian Action by Larry Minear et al. (1996). This book is a concise analysis of many of the principal issues facing external actors in foreign civil wars. It is concerned with three main groups: western governments, the media, and humanitarian agencies. The authors succeed in isolating the main...

The prevention and punishment of genocide requires an intellectual and moral honesty that can only exist where there is complete freedom of information and expression

The record of aid to Africa, in actual achievements in the improved well-being of its recipients, is not a good one. This article contends that this does not mean that aid should be abandoned, but that reform is necessary in the way it is given and managed. The author points out that aid programmes founded on a strong local base and pursued through...

The rational choice approach to the understanding of group identity and conflict tends to overlook the extent to which groups are mutable, and the element of design by group leaders (especially those wielding state power) in the definition of group identity and the shaping of rationality. The 1994 genocide of the Rwandese Tutsis was the outcome of...