Alemayehu Geda

Alemayehu Geda
Addis Ababa University | AAU · Department of Economics

PhD
Teaching and Researche

About

137
Publications
477,699
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Introduction
I am currently teaching Advanced Macroeconomic Theory and Macroeconomic Policy at PhD and MSc programs of the Department of Economics at Addis Abeba University. I also teach at Nairobi (Central Bank &Treasury), Kampala (EPRC/Makarare Univ) and in Easter & Southern African Countries ( with MEFMI) applied macro modeling and econometrics & International Economics. Current research: China-Africa relation; Applied Macroecometric modeling, Dev't Finance & the Political Economy of Conflict in Africa.
Additional affiliations
September 2001 - June 2003
University of London
Position
  • Professor (Associate)
Description
  • Teaching Macroeconomics, International Economics and Research on African Economics
January 2000 - December 2001
Kenya Institute For Public Policy Research and Analysis
Position
  • Senior Researcher
Description
  • Research on macroeconomic policy, Macro econometric modeling, Macro Policy and Poverty (in collaboration with Kenyan Treasury)
Education
September 1992 - December 1998
Institute of Social Studies at Erasmus University, the Netherlands
Field of study
  • Development Economics (PhD) & Economic Policy and Modeling (MA)

Publications

Publications (137)
Article
Full-text available
The study attempts to critically examine how the African economic crisis/challenges and related growth and poverty reduction policies are understood and formulated by mainstream neoclassical (orthodox) economics in the last four decades. This is contrasted with an alternative way of looking at the same crisis from another angel of the economic prof...
Preprint
Full-text available
This is a brief analysis about the possible macroeconomic and social impact of COVID-19 virus on the Ethiopian economy. The analysis is conducted with the aim of informing the Ethiopian government and the public at large on what the likely magnitude of the economic problems could be. It is also aimed at stimulating the debate about the policy respo...
Preprint
Full-text available
This study attempts to identify forces behind the rising inflation in Ethiopia. To this end an inflation model informed by Kaleckian macroeconomics is developed and estimated using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modelling approach and quarterly data for the period 1996 to 2018. The most important forces behind inflation are found to be a sha...
Preprint
Full-text available
This study comes up with a parsimonious applied dynamic macroeconometric model that can be used for forecasting and policy analysis by central banks in Africa. It aims to replace the African central banks' adoption of standard DSGE models that are currently in use in the central banks of the rich (advanced) countries. This is needed because DSGE mo...
Experiment Findings
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The possible Macroeconomic Impact of the War in the Northern Ethiopia and the necessity of non-conventional financing scheem to avoid severe macroeconomic instability. If this is not pursued, we will have challenging macroeconomic instability that includes huge inflation.
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Focusing on digitalization as a major disruptive technology in Ethiopia, this study found that digitalization is at a very low level of development in Ethiopia, by the regional standards. Yet, a 10 per cent rate of digital penetration (digitalization) is found to lead to a GDP growth of 0.5 present - this being as high as 0.8 per cent in the servic...
Preprint
Full-text available
Focusing on the period 2000-2019, Rwanda’s growth in the entire period could be taken as periods of “Growth Acceleration” with average annual GDP growth of 7.7 per cent per annum. Despite its excellent growth, Rwanda has several growth challenges that are identified using standard growth diagnostic approach. Compared to the share of investment in G...
Preprint
Full-text available
Fragile states in Africa need unique macroeconomic management which ensures macroeconomic stability and ensures state legitimacy to avoid or minimize the risk of relapse to conflict. Such macroeconomic stability depends on political and economic governance and the nature of financing development. The empirical analysis confirmed, first, that improv...
Conference Paper
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-Despite the fast and high (though not as high as officially claimed) economic growth unemployment remained a challenge. -Three was a mismatch between the source of growth and the source of potential high employment. - Thre is a significant gender bias in unemployment (females are more unemployed than males). TVT doesn't seem to help a lot to addre...
Presentation
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A summary of 3 journal articles in a special issue of the Journal of African Economies, University of Oxford.
Preprint
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Textbook 2020: Advanced Macroeconomics for Africa I - The Short Run (For MSc Levlel students, sample 4 chapters). Educators can email me at ag112526@gamail.com to get the full book if you prefer to adopt it for your teaching. It still needs some professional language editing. Comments are welcome
Presentation
Full-text available
August 2020 Update about the Macroeconomic Effect of COVID-19 in Ethiopia
Presentation
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My Presentation about Macroeconomic Imbalance and Telecom Privatization in Ethiopia to EZEMA (Ethiopian opposition party) Webinar (Is both in Amharic and English)
Preprint
Full-text available
This study examines the possible effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement tariff reduction protocol on intra-Africa's merchandise trade using two approaches: trade and gravity-based models. In both approaches an attempt to identify the trade creation and diversion effects of the proposed AfCFTA is made. The trade indice...
Experiment Findings
Full-text available
A closer examination of the "homegrown" economic policy reform shows that it doesn't look homegrown as strongly as claimed. Why? Because it is strikingly similar to a typical IMF program for reforming (read liberalizing) developing countries and copied from such templates (Just look at IMF Pamphlet series No. 47, 2019). Why? because it doesn't star...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
የፅሁፉጠቅለል ያለ መልክት አጠቃላይ የኢኮኖሚዉን ልማት በሚመለከት ጥሩ የሚባል የኢኮኖሚ ዕድገት ቢኖርም የአብይ ኢኮኖሚዉ (የማክሮ ኢኮኖሚዉ)፣ የዋጋ ንረቱ፣ የዉጭ ምንዛሪ ዕጥረቱና የዕዳዉ ጫናዉ እነደሚየሳየዉ፣ የተናጋ ሆነ:: ዕድገቱ የተባለዉን ያህል ድህነትንና በሃብታምና ድሃ መሀከል የለዉን የገቢ ልዮነትን (ኢ-እኩልነት) አላሸነፈም ነበር:: የአቢይ አኮኖሚዉ የተናጋ ሆኗል፣ ለምን? -ምክንያቱም እድገቱ የመጣዉ በብድርና በገንዘብ ማተም ነዉ፣ ዘላቂ የወጪ አሸፋፈን አልነበረም፣ በብድሩ የመልማት እድልን አባክኖታል -ምክንያቱም “ልማታዊ መንግስቱ...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This is "An Introduction to Amharic Translation of Kalecki's Essay on Developing Economies", a classic development macroeconomics book. It is also my evaluation of the EPRDF's developmental state policy and what its future should be from macroeconomic and Kaleckian theoretical perspective. It is written in Amharic and uploaded for readers and polic...
Experiment Findings
Full-text available
Note: These articles were prepared for two consecutive issues of the EBR magazine. The magazine made a mistake of presenting the articles in full or properly sequenced, the way I wanted it. As a result, it made the piece that appeared in the current issue of the magazine meaningless. This is the full article.
Experiment Findings
Full-text available
Translation of Kalecki's Analysis of the problem of Israeli's economy in 1950 which can be adopted almost entirely for Ethiopia's current foreign exchange problem in 2019 (Release this draft chapter for use by policy makers to attempt address the current FX problem - that needs urgency)
Presentation
Full-text available
Trade effects of the African CFTA April 8-9 Nairobi final (Preliminary Results Presented at African Economic Research Consortium/AERC Conference in Nairobi, April 9, 2019
Book
This book illuminates the answers to various major questions on African development related to international trade and finance. It explores the economic interaction between Africa and the now-developed countries (the West) in the past and China today, as well as the legacy of these interactions for Africas growth and poverty reduction effort today....
Book
This book illuminates the answers to various major questions on African development related to international trade and finance. It explores the economic interaction between Africa and the now-developed countries (the West) in the past and China today, as well as the legacy of these interactions for Africas growth and poverty reduction effort today....
Presentation
Full-text available
Fragile States need unique macro policy (a) Macroeconomic stability is positively related to financial sector development, better governance and institutions as well as the quality of macroeconomic policies and related institutions, (b) Natural resource dependence & debt are found to
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Social conflict is inevitable , every change throws up new conflicts, and the mark of successful societies is their management of such conflicts rather than the lack of them" (Hirschman, 1995) Fragile states in Africa are found to need a unique macroeconomic management approach focused both to ensure macroeconomic stability for inclusive growth a...
Preprint
Full-text available
Using quantitative and qualitative analysis we find that both ‘macro fundamentals’ (income, the trade balance and interest rate differentials) and ‘market micro structure’ (order flows and Bank of Zambia's sale of dollars) to be important determinants of exchange rate in Zambia. However, the effect of both determinants is found to vary substantiall...
Article
Despite various attempts since independence and the growing economic engagement between China and Africa in the last two decades, structural transformation in Africa has remained elusive. In the last six decades, and unlike China and East Asian countries, African countries failed to successfully transform their economies and thus upgrade their indu...
Article
The study critically examines the pattern of African economic engagement with China and the emerging South. The emerging pattern of trade and finance in this engagement is in the course of sustaining the problem of trading in primary commodities in Africa. Thus, this engagement is found to hinder structural transformation of the continent, is leadi...
Poster
Full-text available
Three Books Coming Soon: 1) Readings on Ethiopian Economy II 2) The Historical Origin of African Economic Crisis: African International Trade and Finance form Colonialism to China (Cambridge Scholars Publishers) 3) Amharic Book (translation of the book and its interpretation in Ethiopian Context of) Michael Kalecki's "Essay on Developing Economies"
Conference Paper
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The study attempts to addresses the analytics of macroeconomic and labour market developments in Zambia and the policy challenges associated with those developments. More specifically, we review and propose enhancements for the ZAMMOD -econometric model used by the Ministry of Finance to project the evolution of economic variables. We propose spec...
Experiment Findings
Full-text available
Discusses the cause and cost of the Ethio-Eritrea war and recommends what to do not to repeat previous mistakes made and for Durable peace.
Presentation
Full-text available
China African Relation and Its Implications for Structural Transformation in Africa
Chapter
Based on a new analytical country classification of African economies as fragile, factor and investment driven economies, we identify the main determinants of FDI inflows to Africa. Using a panel co-integration approach for the period 1996–2012 we find market size, availability of natural resources, openness to international trade, a stable macroec...
Presentation
Full-text available
The Study Review Investment Policies in Djibouti, Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalis, South Sudan, The Sudan and Uganda. It discusses their weakness and strength, implications for inclusive growth and job creation, It also draws lesson from successful East Asian (Korea and Taiwan) and African (Mauritius and Botswana) developmental states in investment policy...
Conference Paper
The study attempts to critically examine the pattern of African economic engagement with China and the emerging South. The emerging pattern of trade and finance in this engagement is in the course of sustaining the problem of trading in primary commodities in Africa. Thus, this engagement is found to hinder structural transformation of the continen...
Conference Paper
Each African country has its own political, structural, institutional and historical features that distinguish it from others. This underscores the need to make policy lessons from East Asian success story, as that of Taiwan and Korea, tailor made to suite each African country's uniqueness. Such policy framework and associated policies will be diff...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Web: www.Alemayehu.com and www.Researchgate.net/Profile/Alemayehu_Geda Abstract "Social conflict is inevitable , every change throws up new conflicts, and the mark of successful societies is their management of such conflicts rather than the lack of them" (Hirschman, 1995) Fragile states in Africa are found to need a unique macroeconomic management...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The study attempts to critically examine how the African economic crisis/challenges and related growth and poverty reduction policies are understood and formulated by mainstream neoclassical (orthodox) economics in the last four decades. This is contrasted with an alternative way of looking at the same crisis from another angel of the economic prof...
Presentation
Full-text available
Review Macroeconomic Development in Ethiopian and Draw Its Political and Economy Implications
Chapter
Full-text available
This study attempts to estimate the volume of capital flight and its impact on growth and poverty reduction in Ethiopia. Over the period 1970 to 2012, the total capital flight from the country is estimated at USD 31 billion. Based on a simple ICOR based growth model simulation, the average growth lost owing to the capital flight is found to be abou...
Data
Full-text available
Presentation
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The presentation is an extension of similar presentation done for FSS in Addis Ababa. It deals with the issue of FDI, as well as Chinese, Turkish and India’s financing of development through credit. It also deals with the implication of this for indebtedness, the terms of indebtdness and its political/strategic implication for Ethiopia.
Article
Full-text available
Abstract In this study we have developed a macro-econometric model for a typical supply constrained African economy. This is aimed at developing a theoretical and empirical template for such policy tools that are increasingly being demanded in African ministries of finance and central banks. We have concretized it by building a macro-econometric mo...
Article
This study attempts to estimate the volume of capital flight from Ethiopia and its determinants, focusing on economic, institutional, and political determinants. Capital flight is estimated at $31 billion over the 1970–2012 period. On average, the country has lost around half a billion dollars annually under the ‘Derg’ regime. This amount more than d...
Presentation
Full-text available
Presentation of the Role of FDI and Credit Financing in Ethiopian (African) Economy.
Research
Full-text available
A Background Study for Addis Ababa Chamber of Commerce Five Year Strategy Plan, 2008
Presentation
A brief presentation of the challenge of monetary policy in Africa
Presentation
Full-text available
A brief presentation of the challenge of monetary policy in Africa. It argues that monetary by itself is very limited and need to be coordinated with other policies, such as fiscal policy, to be effective.
Chapter
Full-text available
In this study we have developed a macro-econometric model for a typical supply constrained African economy. This is aimed at developing a theoretical and empirical template for such policy tools which are increasingly demanded in Africa. We have concretized it by building a macro-econometric model for Rwanda. The Rwanda macro-econometric model has...
Article
This study examines the potential for intra-Africa trade and the prospects of advancing regional economic integration through such trade. A variety of empirical models are deployed for the purpose. The analysis and model simulation results reveal the existence of significant potential for intra-Africa trade. However, realizing this potential and he...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This study examines the potential for intra-Africa trade and the prospects of advancing regional economic integration through such trade. A variety of empirical models are deployed for the purpose. The analysis and model simulation results reveal the existence of significant potential for intra-Africa trade. However, realizing this potential and he...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Based on a new analytical country classification of African economies as Fragile, and Factor& Investment driven economies, we identified the main determinants of FDI inflows to Africa. Using a panel co integration approach for the period 1996 to 2012,we have found market size, availability of natural resources, openness to international trade, a st...
Article
Full-text available
This paper discusses the macroeconomic challenges and opportunities facing Sudan and South Sudan following their mutual separation in July 2011. It was written as part of the framework for informing the Sudan and South Sudan parties in negotiations following the secession of the South. Mutual viability was a key issue. While events have moved on si...
Chapter
Full-text available
In this short article an attempt to critically examine how the African economic crisis is understood by mainstream neoclassical economics and its implications for macro policy making in the continent is made. This is contrasted with an alternative way of looking at the same crisis from another angel of the economic profession which can loosely be t...
Article
In this study an attempt to examine the China−Africa trade potential and the implications of exploiting that potential is made. The potential is examined using the Trade Complementarity Index and the stochastic frontier gravity model of trade. The results suggest that there is considerable potential to expand China−Africa trade. Apart from reformin...
Book
This book attempts to demystify time series econometrics so as to equip macro-economic researchers focusing on Africa with solid but accessible foundation in applied time series techniques that can deal with challenges of developing economic models using African data. Can be obtained from: Amazon.com or University of Nairobi Press
Conference Paper
In this article an attempt to critically examine how the African economic crisis is understood by mainstream neoclassical economics is made. This is contrasted with an alternative way of looking at the same crisis from another angel of the economic profession which can loosely be termed as heterodox approach or the structuralist approach to economi...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper attempts to model the dynamic aspects of ideas of Neagras Gebre-Hiwot Baykedagn using a dynamic programming approach of mathematical modeling. We modeled the dynamics of conflict and unequal exchange in relation to labour supply, productive land and output (GDP). Using the Euler equation first order condition, we have derived the relatio...
Article
Full-text available
Capacity building in fragile and post-conflict situations is specially challenging for policy makers in that it represents a situation that needs to be carefully managed. Understanding the dynamic link between capacity building and conflict requires understanding the nature and determinants of conflicts, their duration, intensity and the modalities...
Conference Paper
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The flow of ODA to Ethiopia has grown dramatically in the last two decade. ODA net disbursements have risen from just over 15 million USD in 1960 to 3.8 billion USD in 2009.The data also seems to suggest that Ethiopia enjoys relatively predictable ODA. However, there has been a notable drop in ODA following the 2005 disputed election, showing the v...
Book
Full-text available
This book shows that Ethiopian underdevelopment has more to do with the political will in selecting the appropriate policy path than with any national intellectual "deficit". The author demonstrates that the indigenous knowledge is present and has been for generations, awaiting the political process to take advantage of it. Overall, this is a book...
Article
Full-text available
Remittance is an extremely important source of foreign exchange for Ethiopia, perhaps larger than the export earning of the country in its foreign exchange generation capacity. However, the industry is besieged by a number of problems. In this study we have administered structured questioners to six private banks operating in the industry; the only...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In this study we have attempted to deploy both macro and microeconomic tools that are helpful to learn about efficiency of public spending in agriculture. The main conclusion that is emerging from the exercise could be summarized as follows: First, from a macro perspective, we noted that there is a measurable interaction among sectoral value-added...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The Ethiopian government spend a lot in the pro-poor sectors in general and the agricultural sector in particular. Yet, the performance of the agricultural sector doesn’t seem so exciting. The latter is the finding of an earlier IFPRI’s study on the issue. Similarly, in the assessment of the World Bank ‘despite a decade of focus on agriculture and...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This study aims at understanding the forces behind the current inflationary experience in Ethiopia. To this end a synthesis monetarist and structuralist model of inflation is developed. The model is estimated using vector autoregressive (VAR) formulation for the period 1994/95 to 2007/08 using quarterly data. The determinants of inflation are found...
Article
The paper examines the pattern of poverty, growth and inequality in Ethiopia in the recent decade. The result shows that growth, to a large extent depends on structural factors such as initial conditions, vagaries of nature, external shocks and peace and stability both in Ethiopia and in the region. Using a rich household panel data, the paper also...
Article
In this paper, we address two major questions. First, the question of whether China and India are displacing the African manufacturing export from the third market. Second, whether there is an evidence of shifting comparative advantage from China and India to Africa. We employed a gravity model with a panel data using 13 African exporters of clothi...