Aleksandar S. Jovanovic

EU-VRi: European Risk & Resilience Institute

Uncertainties appearing in, or related to, knowledge acquisition have appeared as one of major problems in development of knowledge-based systems (KBS) applied in the field of structural engineering at the author's institution. General theoretical concepts have often to be modified and/or combined with the ad hoc developed solutions in order to sol...

The volume combines tutorials covering basic elements of expert (or knowledge based) systems and practical building of the expert systems to be applied in structural engineering, with the lecture dealing with the various particular application sub-domains like corrosion, stress analysis, high temperature and other pressurized components, use of hyp...

This paper presents some general and practical aspects of the analytical and experimental work performed within the JRC Ispra PTS (Pressurised Thermal Shock) research. Main elements of the structural reliability assessment performed for the scaled pressure vessel model exposed to repetitive PTS loads have been highlighted, and first results regardi...

Microservice architectures are increasingly being used to develop application systems. Despite many guidelines and best practices being published, architecting microservice systems for security is challenging. Reasons are the size and complexity of microservice systems, their polyglot nature, and the demand for the continuous evolution of these sys...

Some three years after the first detection of thousands of "hydrogen flaws" in its Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV), the Belgian nuclear power reactors Doel 3 and Tihange 2 were restarted at the end of 2015. However, the potential problem of (hydrogen-related) cracks in the RPV and the related longer-term aging problems of the reactor are still immine...

Three years after its first detection, the problem of (hydrogen-related) cracks in RPV-steels is still imminent in the Belgian nuclear power reactors Doel 3 and Tihange 2. This report briefly elaborates on some reported findings and identifies possible mechanisms for the detected flaws in the reactor pressure vessel wall and the risks for further g...

The paper proposes a concept enabling quantitative assessment of resilience in critical entities developed in the European projects SmartResilience and InfraStress. The concept aims at combining simple communication-related advantages of simplified assessments results (such as “resilience very high” or “resilience very low”) with the advantages of...

An approach to resilience assessment is described for the energy supply system of the city of Helsinki, Finland. Developed in the EU project SmartResilience, the approach has aimed at solutions for practical resilience assessment of increasingly smart critical infrastructures (SCIs) in urban environments. A selected test scenario involves a cold wi...

In the moment of preparation of this paper, the world is still globally in grip of the Corona (COVID-19) crisis, and the need to understand the broader overall framework of the crisis increases. As in similar cases in the past, also with this one, the main interest is on the “first response”. Fully appreciating the efforts of those risking their li...

The revised Standard VGB-S-506 describes methods for condition monitoring and condition assessment in due consideration of hazards especially arising from steam and pressure in components of steam boiler plants, pressure vessel installations and water-or steam pipelines. One of the proposed methods accepted for risk assessment is the Risk Based Ins...

Current frameworks to assess resilience are often based on low-dimensional models that describe a small number of inter-related components. However, for many infrastructures their resilience is a property that emerges from myriads of individual interactions. Here, we develop for the first time fully quantitative and data-driven indicators for sever...

The resilience of modern societies is to a large degree determined by the resilience of their Critical Infrastructures (CI). These infrastructures are critical because interruptions not only influence the infrastructures themselves, but loss of functionality has secondary effects on the society. The use of smart technologies makes these "Smart" CIs...

The EU project SmartResilience aims to develop methods for practical assessment of the resilience of smart critical infrastructures (SCIs) in urban environments. The paper will describe an approach applied in the case of the energy supply system of the city of Helsinki, Finland. A selected scenario involves a cold winter period challenging the supp...

The EU project SmartResilience aims to develop methods for practical assessment of the resilience of smart critical infrastructures (SCIs) in urban environments. The resentation will describe an approach applied in the case of the energy supply system of the city of Helsinki, Finland

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three‐tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity a...

Corrosion degradation of materials is an important issue that leads to depreciation of investment goods. In production of materials a huge challenge is to design ‘smart’ synthetic systems that can actively re-establish the continuity and integrity of a damaged area. Nanocontainers represent new technology for smart nanocoating interfaces. This chap...

The overall resilience of modern societies is largely determined by and dependent on resilience of their critical infrastructures (CI). These infrastructures are becoming increasingly smarter and more efficient by means of smart technologies such as sensors, gateways, processors. The use of smart technologies also makes the CIs increasingly interde...

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three-tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity a...

The basic idea of this report is that the modern critical infrastructures (CI) are becoming increasingly smarter (e.g. the smart cities, smart energy supply). In short-term, making the infrastructures smarter usually means making them smart in the normal operation and use: more adaptive, more intelligent etc. systems. This way, the infrastructures...

The paper addresses the impacts that an increased “smartness” of critical infrastructures can have on their resilience towards natural and man-made hazards. Smart technologies, i.e. technologies that are integrated, interconnected, intelligent, and autonomous, usually make a normal operation more adaptive and efficient. However, due to their highly...

Risk-based approaches can help in selecting and prioritizing future choices and schedules so that decisions are justified by the associated risk. The paper will give examples of applications from conventional power plants, where degrading physical condition can increase the risk of failure and decrease asset value. To manage the risk, implemented i...

The report presents a methodology for assessing resilience of Smart Critical Infrastructures (SCIs) based on resilience indicators. The assessment of resilience levels (RIL) developed as part of the SmartResilience project; Critical Infrastructure Resilience Assessment Method (CIRAM) is a scale approach, it applies across critical infrastructures,...

Panel discussion together with Experts from Fraunhofer Institute (IAO), Valeo, and Daimler

The emerging risks always pose the uncertain challenges and risks, mainly due to lack in their understanding and available past experience. In this case, a Risk Radar provides the necessary tool in order to fulfill the existing gaps and to provide a foundation for sophisticated/ systematic predictions and insights. The Risk Radar employ the concept...

The chapter addresses perspectives and societal appetite for risks associated with unconventional oil and gas development on public health. It further examines the public's perception of risks surrounding the industry, both in the United States and in Europe. The authors relate recent regulatory decisions to both these issues: evidence for risk and...

Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) approaches are currently gaining more and more place in the national and international standards and regulations. As such, they are becoming an unavoidable part of modern asset management in power and process industry. In European regulation, this trend is visible in changes in the PED and in finalizing of the new EN sta...

Resilience of modern societies is largely determined by and dependent on resilience of their critical infrastructures such as energy grids, transportation systems, governmental bodies or water supply. This is clearly recognized by the European Union in its policies and research agenda, such as the DRS actions and projects (DRS: Disaster-Resilience:...

Modern critical infrastructures are becoming increasingly smarter (e.g. the smart cities). Making the infrastructures smarter usually means making them smarter in the normal operation and use: more adaptive, more intelligent etc. But will these smart critical infrastructures (SCIs) behave smartly and be smartly resilient also when exposed to extrem...

Resilience of modern societies is largely determined by and dependent on resilience of their critical infrastructures such as energy grids, transportation systems, governmental bodies or water supply. This is clearly recognized by the European Union in its policies and research agenda, such as the DRS actions and projects (DRS: Disaster-Resilience:...

The paper highlights the practical aspects of new EU project SmartResilience and its application in Fin-land. The basic idea of the project is that modern critical infrastructures are becoming increasingly " smarter " (e.g. cities). Making the infrastructures " smarter " usually means making them smarter in normal operation and use, but it has to b...

In this work we address the challenge of how to identify those documents from a given set of texts that are most likely to have substantial impact in the future. To this end we develop a purely content-based methodology in order to rank a given set of documents, for example abstracts of scientific publications, according to their potential to gener...

In a context of volatility in the oil price and with the impact of fossil fuels on climate change, the sustainable growth of the aviation is conditioned by the environment, economy and technical efficiency. In order to overcome these issues, new alternative fuels and biofuels could be an alternative to established technologies. In this study, a dyn...

The paper deals with the new concept of safe and sustainable innovation proposed by Steinbeis in Germany. The concept is based on three main premises. Firstly, the innovation can be considered safe only if both designed as such (also over the life-cycle), and perceived as such by the stakeholders. Secondly, the innovation is sustainable only if it...

This study uses bibliometric methods to analyze the scientific literature of fracking. Web of Science database, including the Science Citation Index, Sciences Citation Index and Conference Proceedings Citation Index—Science were used to collect the data. The analysis done in the paper looks at the annual distribution of publications, countries, ins...

The fragmentation of research efforts in the area of industrial safety has long been identified as a European weakness. Industrial safety is fragmented not only over the EU member states, but also within some of the states on the regional level, as well as the across the industry branches. The opinion that each EU member state, each industrial bran...

Gezeichnet durch Fragmentierung und in Anbetracht eines globalen Wettbewerbs sieht sich die europäische Sicherheitsindustrie großen Herausforderungen gegenüber. Ansteigender Innovationsdruck auf der einen und die Notwendigkeit der Integration der sozialen Dimension bei der Entwicklung und Einführung von Sicherheitslösungen innerhalb einer Gesellsch...

Nanotechnology is considered one of the key technologies of the 21st century within Europe and a Key-Enabling Technology (KET) by Horizon 2020. Standardization has been identified in H2020 as one of the innovation-support measures by bridging the gap between research and the market, and helping the fast and easy transfer of research results to the...

Stress corrosion cracking, pitting corrosion, and other materials degradation mechanisms in reactor coolant system components have cost the nuclear industry billions of dollars, due to forced and extended outages, component repa ir and replacement, and increased inspection requi rements and regulatory scrutiny. Materials aging effects must be effec...

The objective of this paper is to conduct a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the international journal of Ergonomics. Articles published in Ergonomics from 2001 to 2012 have been downloaded from the Science Citation Index-Expanded database. The bibliometrics methods have been used to analyse the publication output with respect to authors, c...

This paper addresses the use of bibliometric methods for analysis of the papers published in International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology (ISSST) in the period 1998-2012. Totally, 2781 ISSST papers were got from Web of Science and bibliometrics indicators, including annual publications, categories, geospatial distributions and topic ana...

Bibliometric methods was used to outline the scientific research of nanosafety around the word. Categories of nanosafety, publications trend, geographical distribution, authors, and journals were chosen as the basic parameters in this study. In a depth, key terms and classical papers in nanosafety were also analyzed. The results shown that the rese...

The contribution explores the role of the cognitive factors and biases in perception of risks related to fracking (hydraulic fracturing) technology, targeting primarily Germany and the EU. Possible role of about 20 major possible biases (such as those related to confirmation, authority, loss aversion, conjunction fallacy, decision fatigue, sleeper...

The application of RIMAP/CWA methodology for high-temperature components in power plants and the use of risk-systems which covers all the aspects of life management (materials, monitoring, load analysis, inspection results, analytical tools) gives - TRANSPARENCY to the decision making process (e. g. work priorisation) - FLEXIBILITY for optimization...

Main goals: - Improve for acceptance of new technologies - Framework for managing risks related to new technologies - Procedure for early recognition and monitoring of emerging risks (improved resilience)

- Asset Management as a named discipline has roots in several industrial sectors and countries - The financial services sector has used the term for many decades to describe the juggling of different investment options, their financial return, security and risk. - The UK Board of Trade and manufacturing sector established guidelines and standards...

Two (three) points of view: 1. OPERATION, AGING - Plants, systems - Components, locations 2. DAMAGE - Systematics - Failure (EOL) - CoF - PoF 3. RISKS - know it and reduce it!

Vor genau 100 Jahren, im Jahre 2014/15, erschien die erste Edition von den berühmten ASME-Standards – „ASME Boiler Code - Rules for the Construction of Stationary Boilers and for the Allowable Working Pressures“. Die Standards waren die Antwort von Ingenieuren in Massachusetts auf das, was in als „public outcry“, heftige Reaktion der Gesellschaft,...

This paper describes the factors considered in the process of Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) on the level of qualitative analysis of pressurized components in large fossil-fuel fired power plants. The overall procedure is described and its application on a selected power plant examples shown. The advantages/disadvantages of the approach are discussed...

The approach presented here provides description of the method for determination of Probability of Failure (PoF) or Likelihood of Failure (LoF), the terms being used as synonyms and PoF used as the preferred acronym, LoF indicating more “qualitative analysis” and usually referring to a simpler analysis, e.g. in the risk screening phase, and/or use...

Technology maturity/readiness assessment is the first avenue that engineers and program managers utilize to make critical decisions about the likelihood that a technology can be successfully exploited. Therefore, a significant amount of research to develop tools that can track and assess the technology maturity has been performed. Technology Readin...

The progress made in area of cognitive science �in the last two decades has so far only partially been applied to the area of risks and especially the area of emerging risks Factors (biases, defaults, nudges) and their positive or negative influence on the process of early recognition and management of emerging risks Practical application of these...

The paper highlights the main elements of the research and other supporting activities, such as standardization, related to optimized management of life of aged infrastructures, networks and industrial plants. The research and the activities are taking place within and around the large EU FP7 project SafeLife-X. The paper presents some of these act...

“Planning” the (materials related!) innovation – a controversy? A legitimate question? YES! If we make all the plans (e.g. the Strategic Research Agendas, Calls, Frameworks…) we, essentially, do PLAN), and, then, we should know … how such plans have worked or not in the past and how they could work in the future? Examples? … should we plan the wor...

This workshop will therefore, look at the chain “emerging risks – fast thinking – possible errors (in emerging risk assessment) due to biases”. It will try to do it in an interactive way, pointing rather the possibility of error in assessment than the right answer

Method for estimating corrosion self-healing and corresponding computer system. The invention relates to a method for estimating corrosion self-healing of a coating containing inhibition agent particles, and to a computer system configured for use in carrying out this method. According to the invention the method comprises to perform a corrosion se...

This study uses the bibliometric methods to analyze the scientific attention and risks related to fracking. The study uses the Web of Science database, including the Science Citation Index, Sciences Citation Index and Conference Proceedings Citation Index- Science (CPCI-S). The analysis done in the paper looks at the annual distribution of publicat...

The presentation highlights practical aspects of the development and practical application of the EU approach set up in the European pre-standard document issued by CEN (European Committee for Standardization) DIN-CWA 166648:2013(DIN SPEC 91299) “Managing emerging technology-related risks”. Main goals of the document is to improve basis for accept...

The lecture will highlight the new aspects of innovation related to the perception of new innovative products and technologies, in particular the cognitive science related biases which can influence safety culture and the success of new technologies. A series of biases, representing de facto emerging risks to the success, are looked at and the exa...

In this paper we develop a framework of social unrest within a complex understanding of systemic risk. The term ‘systemic’ describes the extent to which any risk is embedded in the larger contexts of social and cultural aspects that shape our understanding of risk, influence our attention to causal relationships and trigger our activities for handl...

PART I - General remarks related to hydrocarbons abundance and the Observatory for Risk Governance, Industrialization and Technological change (“Atlantic 2030”) for sustainable offshore Oil & Gas related businesses … in an era of hydrocarbons abundance? - Education in the area of risk management and engineering� PART II - Industrial risk-related...

Current EU approach to the topic of Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) is currently tackled by only one European standardization document, the CWA 15740:2008 document. The document, published in 2008 as “European answer” to the US API 580/581 documents for petrochemical plants, has been developed for application in broader range of industrial plants than...

The present document gives guidance on steps for applying/implementing the proposed Emerging Risks Management Framework (ERMF) in industrial organizations. The document also formulates the process to follow for better management of emerging risks. In its approach it relies on the International Standard ISO 31000 which provides principles and generi...

The paper highlights the practical aspects of further development and practi-cal application of the EU approach set up in CWA 15740:2008 document, with special emphasis on components in large conventional coal power plants. Further development of the concept involves (a) primarily economic analysis and includes aspect related to NPV (net present va...

Die E2R2-Initiative des EU-Projekts iNTeg-Risk1), koordiniert durch das European Virtual Institute for Integrated Risk Management (EU-VRi)2), strebt an, ein europäisches Risikoradar für neue und aufkommende Risiken (Emerging Risks) mit Unterstützung bzw. unter Federführung der Europäischen Institutionen (Europäische Kommission, Europäisches Parlame...

The paper provides a summary of the achievements, and highlight the open issues and possibilities opening at the end of the European research project iNTeg-Risk (“Early Recognition, Monitoring and Integrated Management of Emerging, New Technology related Risks”). The project, joining efforts of 87 companies and organizations has delivered over 240...

In this paper we develop a framework of social unrest within a complex understanding of systemic risk. The term ‘systemic’ describes the extent to which any risk is embedded in the larger contexts of social and cultural aspects that shape our understanding of risk, influence our attention to causal relationships and trigger our activities for handl...

iNTeg-Risk is a large-scale project funded by the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (EU-FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 213345. It aims at improving the management of emerging risks related to new technologies in the European industry, as well as promoting safety, security, environmental friendliness and social responsibility as...

Technologies designed and developed to improve the quality of life and to make societies more competitive in the global marketplace sometimes face fierce opposition and rejection by those who were proposed to be the beneficiaries of these technologies. Such controversy about technology may be rooted in neglected or underestimated risks to society a...

In 2012, the iNTeg-Risk project (www.integrisk.eu-vri.eu) has successfully finished its first 3 years of work. At this point, the project has already yielded a part of large set of results envisaged for its 4.5 years long work plan. This paper recalls the main goals of the project and analyzes the results delivered; as for instance, the work done i...

The paper deals with the recognized need to systematically explore trade-offs in modern among single risks in modern risk management systems. These risk trade-offs have often been downplayed as ‘side effects’ or ‘unintended consequences’ and, even more often, poorly examined, quantified, and managed. The paper proposes how to deal with the real or...