Aled Jones

• Phd MA BA FHEA HonFIA
• Managing Director at Anglia Ruskin University

We report the results of a survey of farmers and landowners to identify the most likely potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK and compare these with a previous expert elicitation with a much wider set of food system stakeholders. We found that 60% of farmers think a Societal Event in which 1 in 2000 people are injured in the UK is a...

Induced innovation is a multi-faceted process characterized by interaction between demand-pull forces, path-dependent self-reinforcing change, and the cost reduction of technology that occurs with cumulative deployment. By endogenously including induced innovation in energy models, policy analysts and modellers could enable a mission-oriented appro...

Regional carbon budgeting in policymaking is underutilized despite its importance for achieving global climate goals, particularly the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting global warming to 2 °C by 2050. In this work, we present the model PLEDGES, a novel system dynamic-based simulation tool that focuses on the European Union region to equitably di...

Extrapolation of the current ‘energy bind’ from a systems perspective indicates that the global paradigm will likely follow one of three pathways; this trifurcation leads to branches with fundamentally distinct features. The first (Fossil-Seneca Branch) represents ‘Business-As-Usual’ in terms of continued fossil fuel (and nuclear fission) use; the...

We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as “Pos...

The European Green Deal comprises various policy initiatives with the goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. The “Fit for 55 packages” include the Social Climate Fund, which aims to help, among others, vulnerable households and transport users meet the costs of the green energy transition. Thus, analyzing households’ expenditures and the assoc...

The concept of a carbon budget has been well defined and assessed at a global level (Committee On Climate Change, 2009) (Levin, 2013) (Rogelj et al., 2019), but just a few countries around the world have started to consider this concept (Green Economy Coalition, 2023) to shape cumulative emissions limits at the regional level. Not setting carbon bu...

In the present study an effort-sharing approach based on Inertia and Capability principles is proposed to assess European Union (EU27) carbon budget distribution among the Member States. This is done within the context of achieving the Green Deal objective and EU27 carbon neutrality by 2050. An in-depth analysis is carried out about the role of Eco...

Economic modelling plays a major role in the development, justification and evaluation of energy policies. However, there has been little investigation of how political dynamics systematically influence these models' development and outputs, or the implications for energy strategies, targets and interventions. Using in-depth interviews with 24 Euro...

Achieving a just transition to a low carbon economy and society, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, is arguably one of the greatest policy challenges facing governments. It is also of deep concern to businesses, employees and the organisations that represent them. Much of the focus, particularly at policy level, has been on the potential of this...

In the present study, for the first time, an effort sharing approach based on Inertia and Capability principles is proposed to assess European Union (EU27) carbon budget distribution among the Member States. This is done within the context of achieving the Green Deal objective and EU27 carbon neutrality by 2050. An in-depth analysis is carried out...

This paper highlights how actuarial thinking could contribute to the development of a justice perspective relating to biodiversity risks and also the implications for actuarial work. The impact of biodiversity loss as well as the use of ecosystem services is not equally distributed across society (both intra and inter generationally). The Biodivers...

This paper highlights the urgent need for actuaries to take into account the importance, perils and impacts of global biodiversity risks. The Biodiversity and Natural Capital Working Party has been set up to take forward a series of activities including think pieces, webinars and external engagement to ensure our proactive engagement with these ris...

Despite the rich and extensive documentation provided by European Member States and the European Commission in describing National Energy and Climates Plans and Long-Term Strategy plans, it is still very difficult to evaluate where and how the European Union as a whole has positioned itself on the path to achieving the Green Deal objectives, named...

Reaching the UK net-zero emissions target translates into substantial investment requirements into low-carbon energy infrastructure. However, investors are currently not investing sufficiently in renewable energy capacity, leading to the so-called green finance gap. Current energy-economy models generally do not reveal the macroeconomic implication...

Human civilisation has undergone a continuous trajectory of rising sociopolitical complexity since its inception; a trend which has undergone a dramatic recent acceleration. This phenomenon has resulted in increasingly severe perturbation of the Earth System, manifesting recently as global-scale effects such as climate change. These effects create...

The requirements of a transition to a carbon neutral future by 2050 and, in the case of the EU, a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, offer a wide variety of opportunities for households, firms and society at large to avail of new consumption, investment and production practices. This panel discussion will explore concrete, implement...

With increasing concerns about climate change, calls for the adoption of net-zero carbon emissions targets are rising. Achieving this target necessitates a radical decarbonisation of the electricity system, including the shut-down of currently operating high-carbon energy infrastructure. In the light of this background, we develop a novel system dy...

The term peacebuilding has gained traction in academic works since introduction in the 1960s. In recent decades, sport for development and peace (SDP) has also captured the interest of the academic community, with a growing field of work. This scoping review identifies and considers the academic literature on SDP projects deployed as peacebuilding...

In the present study, we compare energy transition scenarios from a new set of integrated assessment models, the suite of MEDEAS models, based on a systems dynamic modeling approach, with scenarios from two already well know structurally and conceptually different integrated assessment models, the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-...

This paper assesses causes for, and challenges related to, the funding gap in infrastructure required for a large scale increase of renewable energy in the European energy mix, specifically crossborder interconnectors to transport renewable electricity from areas with high renewable energy potential and production to centres of energy consumption....

In the present study, we compare energy transition scenarios from a new set of Integrated Assessment Models, the suite of MEDEAS models, based on a systems dynamic modelling approach, with scenarios from two already well know structurally and conceptually different Integrated Assessment Models, the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long...

Well-known academic and non-academic institutions call for a new approach in economics able to capture features of modern economies including, but not limited to, complexity, non-equilibrium and uncertainty. In this paper, we provide a systematic review of ecological macroeconomic models that are suitable for the investigation of low-carbon energy...

Nuclear fission is a primary energy source that may be important to future efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The energy return on investment (EROI) of any energy source is important because aggregate global EROI must be maintained at a minimum level to support complex global systems. Previous studies considering nuclear EROI have emphasis...

This paper reviews different approaches to modelling the energy transition towards a zero carbon economy. It identifies a number of limitations in current approaches such as a lack of consideration of out-of-equilibrium situations (like an energy transition) and non-linear feedbacks. To tackle those issues, the new open source integrated assessment...

This paper reviews different approaches to modelling the energy transition towards a zero carbon economy. It identifies a number of limitations in current approaches such as a lack of consideration of out-of-equilibrium situations (like an energy transition) and non-linear feedbacks. To tackle those issues, the new open source integrated assessment...

Global society currently faces many challenges including climate change and rising inequality. This paper presents the results of a thematic coding analysis of a workshop comprised of senior accountants and actuaries who were asked to consider how a future of sustainable prosperity can be enabled by the finance sector. We found that mindset, skills...

As the impact of climate change increases it is more likely that we will see an increase of extreme weather events leading to significant food production losses. Therefore, understanding the complexities of how production losses impact on policy (through export or import restrictions) and prices (through markets) is important for the governance of...

Meeting its climate policy objectives requires the UK to rapidly decarbonise its energy sector. This demands high levels of investments into low carbon energy infrastructure, which are currently not undertaken at required scale, leading to a green finance gap. We explore (1) key investment barriers, (2) a theoretical framework for investigation and...

Due to negative consequences of climate change for agriculture and food production shocks affecting different areas of the world, the past two decades saw the conditions of global food security increasingly worsen. This has resulted in negative consequences for the world economy, partly causing international food price spikes and social upheavals....

In 1972, The Limits to Growth, using the World3 System Dynamics model, modeled for the first time the long-term risk of food security, which would emerge from the complex relation between capital and population growth within the limits of the planet. In this paper, we present a novel system dynamics model to explore the short-term dynamics of the f...

The finance sector has engaged with policy development processes associated with climate solutions for well over a decade, with the aim of overcoming barriers to investment. In this paper we analyse 31 practice-based policy reports which highlight key barriers to such investing. We use those practice-based policy reports to identify themes associat...

This paper explores the level of awareness people have about the environmental impact of menstrual products. Currently the most popular types of product are also the most detrimental to the natural environment, particularly due to the amount of hidden plastic in disposable items. This research seeks to find out whether people realize that this is t...

The Global Carbon Budget is the cumulative carbon emissions that human activities can generate while limiting the global temperature increase to less than 2°C. On this basis, most countries ratified the Paris Agreement 2015, pledging to reduce national emissions and the impacts of climate change. The European Union has planned to reduce emissions b...

The Paris Agreement, ratified in 2015, pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within a Global Carbon Budget that limits the global temperature increase to less than 2 °C. With the Roadmap 2050 mitigation measures, the European Union has a target to reduce emissions by 80% of their 1990 value by 2050 but without giving an estimation or a maximum...

The Global Carbon Budget is the cumulative carbon emissions that human activities can generate while limiting the global temperature increase to less than 2°C. On this basis, most countries ratified the Paris Agreement 2015, pledging to reduce national emissions and the impacts of climate change. The European Union has planned to reduce emissions b...

This paper examines the efficacy of sustainability-related performance conditions in executive pay schemes at listed companies in the U.K. as perceived by the individuals involved in setting those conditions. It will be demonstrated that it is common practice in the U.K. for senior executives to receive part of their pay in the form of bonuses and...

The monetary valuation of ecosystem services is gaining traction in policy and business communities. Several tools and decision-making processes have been proposed, including criteria to assess the appropriateness of using monetary valuation for biodiversity conservation outcomes. These criteria include measures such as scale, uniqueness, and threa...

Recent recognition of the reliance of human economies on natural resources has been a crucial achievement for policymaking. However, there remains a gap in the knowledge of the full extent of the connection between human economies and natural resources. This is relevant for policymaking as understanding who affects the generation of ecosystem servi...

Changes to the energy supply infrastructure are a vital component of climate change mitigation strategies. But what exactly underlies changes to energy supply infrastructure? This paper, through exploration and critical analysis of relevant literature, explores the various underpinning influences on energy infrastructure supply using a comparison o...

This paper examines how a national risk register supports the implementation of disaster risk management practices at a local level. We present a case study of the UK’s National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies and explore stakeholder understanding, views, perceptions, opinions, and application within the East of England. A semi-structured interv...

In this chapter, the role of the finance sector within the economy is unpacked. The link between financial stability and future potential risks is outlined. Agboraw and Jones focus on the three key sub-sectors of finance in this chapter, namely insurance, pensions and banking. The theory behind each and empirical literature on how resource constrai...

Agboraw and Jones present the output of a number of interviews with senior finance sector experts exploring the role of regulation and finance in managing and responding to the risks from natural resource constraints.

In this chapter Agboraw and Jones explore theories of natural resource scarcity and economic growth. By examining how natural resources fit within current theory the issues of how scarcity of resources, or resource prices, link to a better understanding of economic risk is outlined.

With substantial risks arising from resource constraints on global growth, serious questions are being posed about how a scarcity of finite resources may impact global social and political fragility. The research which forms the core of this book focuses on how this scarcity will impact the financial sector, especially through insurance, pension an...

This chapter explores the concept of identity and the ‘self’. In particular, it expands on the assessment of India through an identity lens. It goes on to highlight the key drivers for India that help shape and evolve its self-identification. We briefly outline some of the key milestones in the international climate negotiations to set the scene fo...

Food production shocks can lead to food crises where access to appropriate quantities and quality of food become inadequate, unaffordable, or unreliable on a major scale. While the physical causes of food production shocks are well researched, the dynamics of responses to them are less well understood. This paper reviews those dynamics and includes...

This Perspective critically assesses how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) could facilitate a closer alignment of its activities and include lessons drawn from the policy and decision-making communities working on the ground at the regional/local levels. By means of a series of workshops with academics, policy officials and decis...

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) bring together environmental, social, and economic concerns. They therefore have the potential to move society away from the dominant model of prosperity as purely economic toward a more holistic and ‘sustainable’ prosperity. The success of such a transformative agenda rests on its implementation. At the...

This paper focuses on investigating the underlying mechanisms and influences of the policy decision making process and how it affects and impacts the governance of the Nigerian energy industry, and energy infrastructure provisions. In-depth semi-structured interviews were used; all interviewees had been involved, directly or indirectly, in energy i...

From 2010 to 2015, the UK coalition government sought to reduce the influence of central government and follow a strategy of localism. Devolution, bringing people closer to democratic process and strengthening communities, became a key point of emphasis. The belief was that localism and devolution would empower socially, help instigate economic inn...

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) bring together environmental, social, and economic concerns. They therefore have the potential to move society away from the dominant model of prosperity as purely economic toward a more holistic and ‘sustainable’ prosperity. The success of such a transformative agenda rests on its implementation. At the...

The multidimensionality and complexity of assuring food security in a sustainable and inclusive way requires us to think in systems. Yet, sector specific models or agricultural productivity models are not able by construction to represent the non-linearity and time-dependent nature of the relations underpinning the agri-food system. Two alternative...

This paper focuses on investigating the linkages and consequences of the policy decision process in the governance of energy infrastructure in Nigeria. It attempts to gain a better understanding of the role of policy makers and institutions in the provision of energy infrastructure in Nigeria. Using a combination of semi-structured interviews and d...

The theme of the conference was bridging the gap between academia and industry with emphasis on risk models. However, many models still operate on the basis that the recent past is the best possible guide to the future. Given changes in the climate leading to shifting probabilities in extreme weather, geopolitical challenges around the supply of oi...

There is an expectation that the insurance sector should be leading business efforts in responding to climate change due to their inherent exposure to increasing risks. However, insurance companies normally operate on a one year time horizon - underwriting risks through policies which change each year to reflect new knowledge of these risks. The Cl...

The provision of energy infrastructure is essential for economic growth, social cohesion, and environmental sustainability. Understanding the multiple functions and services it provides us requires firstly a deeper understanding of the factors that influence energy infrastructure itself. This paper focusses on the factors that influence the evoluti...

Climate risks pose a threat to the function of the global food system and therefore also a hazard to the global financial sector, the stability of governments, and the food security and health of the world’s population. This paper presents a method to assess plausible impacts of an agricultural production shock and potential materiality for global...

Understanding global food production trends is vital for ensuring food security and to allow the world to develop appropriate policies to manage the food system. Over the past few years, there has been an increasing attention on the global food system, particularly after the extreme shocks seen in food prices after 2007. Several papers and working...

To date, international processes associated with sustainable development have not led to an internationally legally binding framework that adequately addresses the challenges we face. Human influence on the planet has led to the adoption, although not universally accepted, of the term Anthropocene to define our new relationship with nature. This pa...

Project interventions are important vehicles for development globally. However, while there is often allocation of resources for new and innovative (pilot) projects—with varying levels of success—there is seemingly less focus on consolidating and/or scaling the positive impacts of successful larger interventions. Assuming an overarching development...

This book presents a new and innovative approach to understanding the dynamics of international climate change negotiations using India as a focal point. The authors consider India’s negotiating position at multilateral climate negotiations and its focus on the notion of ‘equity’ and its new avatar ‘climate justice’. This book delves into the media...

Since the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) highlighted the importance of ecosystem services for human well-being, the payments for such services have increasingly been drawing the attention of governments, the private sector and academia. Nonetheless, there is not yet a specific legal framework which is able to capture the complexity of managi...

A Taskforce of academics, industry and policy experts was commissioned to examine the resilience of the global food system to extreme weather. This summary is built on three detailed reports: Climate and global production shocks (Annex A), Review of the responses to production shocks (Annex B) and the Country-level impacts of global grain productio...

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative approach to facilities and built asset management adaptation planning to climate change based on a hybrid backcasting/forecasting model. Backcasting envisions a future state and examines alternative “pathways of approach” by looking backwards from the future state to the present day. Ea...

In 1972 the Limits to Growth report was published. It used the World3 model to better understand the dynamics of global systems and their relationship to finite resource availability, land use, and persistent pollution accumulation. The trends of resource depletion and degradation of physical systems which were identified by Limits to Growth have c...

A Taskforce of academics, industry and policy experts was commissioned to examine the resilience of the global food system to extreme weather. We present evidence that the global food system is vulnerable to production shocks caused by extreme weather, and that this risk is growing. Although much more work needs to be done to reduce uncertainty, pr...

International political negotiations and national policy for climate change mitigation are increasingly focussed on the mobilisation and scale up of investments in clean energy infrastructure. This paper aims to develop the understanding of how institutional investors in the private sector perceive barriers to scaling up investment into clean energ...

The impact of resources on social unrest is of increasing interest to political leaders, business and civil society. Recent events have highlighted that (lack of) access to critical resources, including food, energy and water, can, in certain circumstances, lead to violent demonstrations. In this paper, we assess a number of political fragility ind...

The aim of this paper is to investigate the agri-environmental sustainability whereas statistical improvements provide a considerable backbone for understanding the three E's balance rule, environment, equity, economy. Then, access data to key resources such as food and water are still not fully available and comparable between countries. This open...

In 1972 the Limits to Growth highlighted the role of human activity on the depletion of natural resources and on growth. The unsustainable population-growth path emerged from its newly developed System Dynamics (SD) World 3, whose overshoot scenarios generated a lively debate on what was erroneously conceived as “end of growth” message. Still, its...

Sustainability analysis represents a form of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) because it involves multiple sectors and agents displaying non-linear and non-rational interacting behaviours characterized by feedbacks and time lags. Thus, it cannot be properly addressed with classical econometric models such as General Equilibrium Models (GEM), nor with...

Since the "Limits to Growth" assessed in 1972 the relevance of resource constraints on global growth and the role of human activity in depleting resources, obstacles (increasing population, urbanization, social change) to access resources fundamental for human life have increased. Extreme weather conditions (droughts, floods) caused by anthropogeni...

Since the “Limits to Growth” assessed in 1972 the relevance of resource constraints on global growth and the role of human activity in depleting resources, obstacles (increasing population, urbanization, social change) to access resources fundamental for human life have increased. Extreme weather conditions (droughts, floods) caused by anthropogeni...

This paper describes an optimised and novel approach to an Autonomous Virtual Server Management System in a 'Cloud Computing' environment and it presents a set of preliminary test results. One key advantage of this system is its ability to improve hardware power consumption through autonomously moving virtual servers around a network to balance out...

This paper presents a novel 'Cloud-based' solution for teaching computer networks in an educational context. One key advantage of the system is its ability to commission and decommission virtual infrastructures comprised of routers, switches and virtual machines on demand. It makes use of hardware located in different physical locations, VMWare sof...

Climate change presents a number of risks to economies and societies. These risks include physical, market, policy, and security risks. Some of these risks are more immediate than others, but all need careful management over time. The insurance sector has a critical role to play in tackling climate risks through the provision of risk management exp...

The results of the Tenerife cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments are presented. These observations cover 5000 and 6500 deg2 on the sky at 10 and 15 GHz, respectively, centered on decl. ~ +35°. The experiments are sensitive to multipoles l = 10-30 that correspond to the Sachs-Wolfe plateau of the CMB power spectra. The sensitivity values of...

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