Alban Kitous

Alban Kitous
European Commission | ec · Joint Research Centre (JRC)

About

69
Publications
19,387
Reads
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3,262
Citations
Citations since 2017
18 Research Items
2192 Citations
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Introduction
Skills and Expertise

Publications

Publications (69)
Article
Full-text available
The usefulness of global integrated assessment model (IAM) results for policy recommendation in specific regions has not been fully assessed to date. This study presents the variation in results across models for a given region, and what might be behind this variation and how model assumptions and structures drive results. Understanding what drives...
Preprint
Full-text available
The usefulness of global integrated assessment model (IAM) results for policy recommendation in specific regions has not been fully assessed to date. This study presents the variation in results across models for a given region, and what might be behind this variation and how model assumptions and structures drive results. Understanding what drives...
Article
Full-text available
We present an overview of results from 11 integrated assessment models (IAMs) that participated in the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-33) on the viability of large-scale deployment of bioenergy for achieving long-run climate goals. The study explores future bioenergy use across models under harmonized scenarios for future cli...
Article
Full-text available
Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in long-run climate change mitigation strategies as highlighted by many integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios. These scenarios, however, also show a very wide range of results, with uncertainty about bioenergy conversion technology deployment and biomass feedstock supply. To date, the underlying...
Article
Full-text available
Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that i...
Article
Integrated assessment models are extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation and are informing national decision makers as well as contribute to international scientific assessments. This paper conducts a comprehensive review of techno-economic assumptions in the electricity sector among fifteen different global and national integ...
Article
Full-text available
Local air quality co-benefits can provide complementary support for ambitious climate action and can enable progress on related Sustainable Development Goals. Here we show that the transformation of the energy system implied by the emission reduction pledges brought forward in the context of the Paris Agreement on climate change (Nationally Determi...
Book
Full-text available
The study assesses how climate change could affect Europe in eleven impact areas. Under a high warming scenario, several climate impacts show a clear geographical northsouth divide. Most of the welfare losses, assessed for six impact areas, would be greatly reduced under a 2ᵒC scenario. ► How to cite: ◄ Ciscar Martinez, J.-C., Ibarreta Ruiz, D.,...
Article
Full-text available
The Paris Agreement—which is aimed at holding global warming well below 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit it below 1.5 °C—has initiated a bottom-up process of iteratively updating nationally determined contributions to reach these long-term goals. Achieving these goals implies a tight limit on cumulative net CO2 emissions, of which residual CO2...
Article
Full-text available
The Paris Agreement is a milestone in international climate policy as it establishes a global mitigation framework towards 2030 and sets the ground for a potential 1.5 °C climate stabilization. To provide useful insights for the 2018 UNFCCC Talanoa facilitative dialogue, we use eight state-of-the-art climate-energy-economy models to assess the effe...
Book
Full-text available
This study shows that achieving the climate change mitigation target of staying below 2°C temperature rise is possible technically – thanks to an acceleration of decarbonisation trends, an increased electrification of final demand and large changes in the primary energy mix that include a phase out of coal and a reduction of oil and gas – and is co...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2017: How climate policies improve air quality - Global energy trends and ancillary benefits of the Paris Agreement This study shows that achieving the climate change mitigation target of staying below 2°C temperature rise is possible technically – thanks to an acceleration of decarbonisation trends, an increased e...
Article
Full-text available
In order to evaluate the effectiveness of climate policy, it is important to understand emission trends and policies at the national level. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions, so-called (I)NDCs, outlining the contribution of different Parties to the overall target of the agreement to limit global mean t...
Article
Income and fuel price pathways are key determinants in projections of the energy system in integrated assessment models. In recent years, more details have been added to the transport sector representation in these models. To better understand the model dynamics, this manuscript analyses transport fuel demand elasticities to projected income and fu...
Article
Full-text available
The United Nations-led international climate change negotiations in Paris in December 2015 (COP21) trigger and enhance climate action across the globe. This paper presents a model-based assessment of the Paris Agreement. In particular, we assess the mitigation policies implied by the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) put forward...
Article
The transport sector is growing fast in terms of energy use and accompanying greenhouse gas emissions. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used widely to analyze energy system transitions over a decadal time frame to help inform and evaluating international climate policy. As part of this, IAMs also explore pathways of decarbonizing the transpo...
Technical Report
Full-text available
The report describes the importance of oil for oil exporting countries and analyses the potential economic effects that current low oil prices may have in their economy and political stability. Firstly, the report describes the main drivers that have led to the present low oil prices. Secondly, descriptive statistics are employed to show the exposu...
Article
In this paper, we demonstrate the role of electricity storage for the integration of high shares of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) in the long-term evolution of the power system. For this, a new electricity module is developed in POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). It now takes into account the impacts of VRES on the...
Article
Full-text available
This paper provides perspectives on the role of Latin American and Latin American countries in meeting global abatement goals, based on the scenarios developed through the CLIMACAP-LAMP modeling study. Abatement potential in Latin America, among other things, is influenced by its development status, the large contributions of non-CO2 and land use c...
Article
In this paper we investigate energy supply investment requirements in Latin America until 2050 through a multi-model approach as jointly applied in the CLIMACAP-LAMP research project. We compare a business-as-usual scenario needed to satisfy anticipated future energy demand with a set of scenarios that aim to significantly reduce CO2 emissions in t...
Article
Governments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2oC with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions and related energy system changes in various countries in pathways consistent with the 2oC target. We...
Technical Report
Full-text available
The report describes the importance of oil for the EU economy and analyses the potential economic effects that current low oil prices since mid-2014 may have in the EU28 economy. Further it assesses how the current oil price decrease may evolve up to 2020 and the consequences for global oil consumption. The analysis shows that a decrease of the oil...
Article
Full-text available
Mexico’s climate policy sets ambitious national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets—30% versus a business-as-usual baseline by 2020, 50% versus 2000 by 2050. However, these goals are at odds with recent energy and emission trends in the country. Both energy use and GHG emissions in Mexico have grown substantially over the last two decad...
Article
This paper provides an overview of the base-year assumptions and core baseline projections for the set of models participating in the LAMP and CLIMACAP projects. We present the range in core baseline projections for Latin America, and identify key differences between model projections including how these projections compare to historic trends. We f...
Article
Full-text available
This paper assesses the effects of market-based mechanisms and carbon emission restrictions on the Brazilian energy system by comparing the results of six different energy-economic or integrated assessment models under different scenarios for carbon taxes and abatement targets up to 2050. Results show an increase over time in emissions in baseline...
Article
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This paper describes the conceptual design of a regional modelling framework to assess scenarios for the forest-based bioeconomy. The framework consists of a core set of tools: a partial equilibrium model for the forest sector, a forestry dynamics model for forest growth and harvest and a wood resources balance sheet. The framework can be expanded...
Article
This paper explores various dimensions of the learning process for low-carbon technologies under different mitigation scenarios. It uses the POLES model, which addresses learning as an endogenous phenomenon with learning curves, and a set of scenarios developed as part of the AMPERE project. It represents an analytical effort to understand the lear...
Article
Full-text available
Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economy systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. In order to provide insights into why results differ between models, this article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of models. Diagnostics can uncover pattern...
Article
Full-text available
This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use are much smaller, particularly until 2030, but rev...
Article
Full-text available
Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), f...
Article
Fossil resource endowments and the future development of fossil fuel prices are important factors that will critically influence the nature and direction of the global energy system. In this paper we analyze a multi-model ensemble of long-term energy and emissions scenarios that were developed within the framework of the EMF27 integrated assessment...
Article
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This study explores a situation of staged accession to a global climate policy regime from the current situation of regionally fragmented and moderate climate action. The analysis is based on scenarios in which a front runner coalition – the EU or the EU and China – embarks on immediate ambitious climate action while the rest of the world makes a t...
Article
Full-text available
L'avenir du climat planétaire à long terme se jouera au cours des prochaines décennies. Alors que le développement économique s'est fondé depuis deux siècles sur le développement massif des énergies fossiles, la question majeure pour l'énergie au XXIe siècle est certainement celle de la transition vers des systèmes énergétiques bas carbone. Cela su...
Article
Full-text available
Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 °C increase by 2100. For the...
Article
Full-text available
Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 degrees C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 degrees C increase by...
Article
Full-text available
This study gives a synthesis of a model comparison assessing the technological feasibility and economic consequences of achieving greenhouse gas concentration targets that are sufficiently low to keep the increase in global mean temperature below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. All five global energy-environment-economy models show t...
Article
This paper explores the potential for bio-energy production, and the implications of different values for the attainability of low stabilization targets. The impact of scenarios of future land use, yield improvements for bio-energy and available land under different sustainability assumptions (protection of biodiversity, risks of water scarcity and...
Article
Full-text available
This paper presents a long-term assessment of the worldwide energy system in scenarios ranging from a baseline to a very low greenhouse gas stabilization, using the energy model POLES. Despite improved energy efficiency, the baseline scenario would lead to a doubling in energy consumption by 2050 increasing further thereafter. CO2 emissions would c...
Article
Full-text available
This study gives a synthesis of a model comparison assessing the technological feasibility and economic consequences of achieving greenhouse gas concentration targets that are sufficiently low to keep the increase in global mean temperature below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. All five global energy-environment-economy models show t...
Article
Full-text available
This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.
Article
Full-text available
This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.
Article
The study aims to analyze the sectoral marginal abatements cost curves for a number of EU countries as well as to examine the efficiency aspects and the economic impacts for the major sectors of the ETS under different carbon market configurations in 2010 and 2020. To produce a consistent and realistic assessment, we employ sources such as GHG Nati...
Article
Full-text available
The future of the European energy system will strongly depend on a future world energy context that will be dominated by two key challenges. The first challenge corresponds to the necessity of meeting the energy needs of a growing population in Asia, South America and Africa, while some key energy resources – oil and natural gas – enter in a proces...
Article
Rapport EUR 22038 à la Commission européenne, Bruxelles. Luxembourg : Office for Official publications of the European Communities, 161 p.
Article
Full-text available
Ce papier vise à analyser les interactions entre les politiques de stabilisation des concentrations de gaz à effet de serre dans l'atmosphère et les fondamentaux de la scène pétrolière mondiale, à partir de simulations du modèle POLES. La « valeur du carbone » est l'artifice de modélisation qui synthétise l'intensité des politiques climatiques. Ell...
Article
This article presents the regional emission targets corresponding to different climate regimes for differentiating commitments beyond 2012 on the basis of the Multi-Stage approach. This approach assumes a gradual increase in the number of Parties involved and their level of commitment according to participation and differentiation rules. The analys...
Article
Full-text available
Cette étude développe une analyse de l'articulation du marché européen des quotas pour les industries lourdes et le secteur électrique avec la régulation des émissions des autres secteurs. En particulier il est supposé qu'une taxation du carbone est mise en oeuvre dans les transports et le bâtiment. L'interaction entre taxe et prix du marché est si...
Article
Etude du LEPII-EPE (France), RIVM-MNP (Pays-Bas), ICCS-NTUA (Grèce), CES-KUL(Belgique), 104 p. http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/studies.htm
Article
Full-text available
What is at stake in the climate negotiations is the provision of a global public good, indeed a “clean” atmosphere. The Kyoto Protocol is only a very minor step toward this objective. Looking further ahead in time, beyond the 2008-2012 period, Annex I Parties' commitments will not be sufficient to achieve the goal of a “clean atmosphere”. The quest...
Article
Full-text available
The global public good of climate stabilization, pursued in the negotiations leading up to the Kyoto Protocol, provides a useful case study of the political problems that can arise in attempts to reconcile structural or procedural aspects of justice and fairness with aspects of efficiency in securing just and fair outcomes.
Article
The purpose of this article is to present an economic assessment, step by step, of the successive developments of the negotiation on weather changes since the Kyoto protocol in 1997 until the agreement achieved in Marrakech during the seventh Conference of the Parties (COP 7) in November 2001. The analysis covers the international market of emissio...
Article
Full-text available
L'objectif principal de ce papier est d'évaluer quantitativement l'accord Bonn-Marrakech, en termes de coûts de réductions et de marché d'émissions, en comparaison avec l'accord initial de Kyoto.
Article
Full-text available
The main objective of this paper is to assess the Bonn-Marrakech agreement, in terms of abatement cost and emission trading as compared with the initial agreement reached in Kyoto (the Kyoto Protocol).