Alan Krupnick

• Resources for the Future

Asthma is a non-communicable and non-curable lung disease that affects 10% of children and 4% of adults worldwide and is associated with an array of environmental contaminants and chemicals. This article offers values suitable for use in cost–benefit analyses of the willingness to pay (WTP) for reduced severity of asthma in adults and children and...

Asthma is a non-communicable and non-curable lung disease that is associated with an array of environmental contaminants and chemicals. Many of these hazards are subject to regulation, or may be considered for regulation, in order to reduce exposures and prevent human health risks. However, the available information on willingness-to-pay (WTP) to a...

Millions of abandoned oil and gas wells are scattered across the United States, causing methane emissions and other environmental hazards. Governments are increasingly interested in decommissioning these wells but want to do so efficiently. However, information on the costs of decommissioning wells is very limited. In this analysis, we provide new...

Millions of abandoned wells are scattered across the United States, causing significant methane emissions and creating a variety of health and environmental hazards. Governments are increasingly interested in decommissioning such wells via tougher regulations or direct spending, but want to do so efficiently. However, information on the costs of de...

Using identical surveys a decade apart, we examine how attitudes and willingness to pay (WTP) for climate policies have changed in the United States, China, and Sweden. All three countries exhibit an increased willingness to pay for climate mitigation. Ten years ago, Sweden had a larger fraction of believers in anthropogenic climate change and a hi...

US tax law provides nearly $1 billion annually in tax credits for “refined coal”, which is supposed to reduce local air pollution. Eligibility for the credit requires firms to demonstrate legally specified emissions reductions for three pollutants. Firms typically demonstrate eligibility through laboratory tests, but results from the lab can differ...

Oil and gas development has grown rapidly in recent years in the United States, generating substantial debate over its risks and benefits. A large body of research has surveyed individuals living in and around producing regions to evaluate their views on the industry, with somewhat mixed results. Here, we present the first detailed analysis on this...

This paper estimates the impact of shale gas development on local particulate matter pollution by exploiting a quasi-experimental setting in Pennsylvania where some wells experienced pre-production and/or production activities whereas some others were permitted but not spud between 2000-2018. We measure local PM pollution using daily aerosol optica...

In 1980, solid waste from oil and gas fields was exempt from US federal hazardous waste regulations (according to the US Environmental Protection Agency's Resources Conservation and Recovery Act, RCRA). However, recent developments in oil and gas extraction from deep shale formations warrant a closer look at this exemption. We obtained lab reports...

Shale gas pipeline development can have negative environmental impacts, including adverse effects on species and ecosystems through habitat degradation and loss. From a societal perspective, pipeline development planning processes should account for such externalities. We develop a multi-objective binary integer-programming model, called the Multi...

Benefit-cost analyses of environmental, health, and safety regulations often rely on an estimate of the value of statistical life (VSL) to calculate the aggregate benefits of reducing human mortality risk. The VSL represents the marginal rate of substitution between mortality risk and money. Although this concept is well understood by economists, i...

Evaluating environmental policies requires estimating the impacts of policy‐induced changes on ecological and human systems. Drawing connections between biophysical and economic models is complex due to the multidisciplinary nature of the task and the lack of data. Further, time and resource constraints typically limit our ability to conduct origin...

Inactive oil and gas wells present an environmental hazard if not properly plugged. Upon drilling a well, operators are required to post a bond, which ensures both that the operator has an incentive to plug and abandon (P&A) at the end of the well's life, and that, if the state is left with the liability of managing “orphaned” wells, it can cover t...

This report examines more sophisticated modeling for benefit-cost analysis of electricity policies and infrastructure.

This study is the eighth in a series of stated-preference studies designed to enhance the basis for international benefits transfer of value of statistical life (VSL) estimates. The series has fielded essentially similar stated-preference surveys in Canada, China, France, Italy, Japan, Mongolia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. This Chine...

The ability to cost-effectively develop vast, globally dispersed deposits of natural gas in deep geological shale using advanced horizontal drilling, 3-D seismic imaging, and hydraulic fracturing techniques could well represent new opportunities for domestic and global economic growth. In this chapter stock is taken about what is known, uncertain,...

About 40% of all coal mined in the United States is extracted from lands owned by the federal government, under leases managed by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI). Burning that coal accounts for 13% of U.S. energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ( 1 ). With the largest and lowest-cost reserves in the United States, federal coal alon...

We provide a critical review of existing research and information regarding the sources of risk associated with on-site shale gas and tight oil wastewater storage in the United States, the gaps that exist in knowledge regarding these risks, policy and technology options for addressing the risks, and the relative merits of those options. Specificall...

For ecosystem services analysis, a key to collaboration between natural and social scientists is the identification and measurement of linking indicators: biophysical indicators that facilitate social evaluation, including monetary valuation of ecological changes. As ecosystem service analysts and practitioners better recognize the various ways in...

This study estimates the economic value of an increase in ecosystem services attributable to the reduced acidification expected from more stringent air pollution policy. By integrating a detailed biogeochemical model that projects future ecological recovery with economic methods that measure preferences for specific ecological improvements, we esti...

Benefit-cost analyses of health regulations traditionally evaluate their economic efficiency—ignoring equity. To help address the importance of equity, we develop a survey to elicit respondents’ preferences towards equality in health risks stemming from environmental causes. Survey responses are used to parameterize an Atkinson index over environme...

Unconventional oil and gas production using hydraulic fracturing generates significant quantities of wastewater that may contain potentially harmful pollutants. The concerns associated with shale gas development necessitate an investigation of shale gas water and wastewater management using a systematic approach to make sure that shale gas developm...

The Clean Air Act provides the regulatory framework for climate policy in the United States. Emissions rate performance standards are the metric identified for regulation of the electricity sector, the most important source of emissions. Rates for existing sources could be averaged to achieve flexibility in compliance, although the stringency of po...

Public discourse suggests a lack of consensus in the United States regarding the environmental impacts of shale gas development. Newly available shale gas has reduced the cost of electricity and heating and replaced coal, but public fears about the environment threaten to curtail those gains. We designed the first survey-based analysis of the views...

The academic literature has lagged both industry and public opinion in measuring and characterizing potential water quantity and quality concerns related to hydraulic fracturing (fracking). However, the science behind fracking’s water impacts experienced its own boom during the 2010s. In this paper, we address this critical emerging environmental a...

The rapid rise in shale gas production has affected the role and importance of regulatory policy at all levels of government. As the primary regulator in this area, state level regulatory changes are particularly significant. As shale gas production increases, some states are updating their regulations, while others maintain dated rules, put in pla...

This chapter reviews the impact of the shale gas revolution in the USA on the sectors of electricity generation, transportation, and manufacturing. Natural gas is substituting for other fuels, particularly coal, in electricity generation, resulting in lower CO2emissions from this sector. The use of natural gas in the transportation sector is curren...

US policy to limit greenhouse gas emissions is currently driven, in part, by the US Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed Clean Power Plan, which seeks a drop in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil-fueled power plants—a “downstream” approach to regulation. Here, we consider an alternative, or possibly complementary, regulatory perspecti...

In this paper, we summarize findings from a research effort aimed at understanding the sources of risk associated with on-site shale gas and tight oil wastewater storage in the United States, the gaps that exist in knowledge regarding these risks, policy and technology options for addressing the risks, and the relative merits of those options. Spec...

Shale gas development in China can generate great potential economic benefits, but also poses serious environmental risks. In this paper, we offer a macro assessment of the environmental risks of shale gas development in China. We use the US experience to identify the nature of shale gas development activities and the types of potential burdens the...

We examined the association between shale gas drilling and motor vehicle accident rates in Pennsylvania.Methods Using publicly available data on all reported vehicle crashes in Pennsylvania, we compared accident rates in counties with and without shale gas drilling, in periods with and without intermittent drilling (using data from 2005 to 2012). C...

Abstract In this paper, we use the US shale gas experience to shed light on how China might overcome the innovation problem inherent in exploring and developing shale gas plays with complex geology. We separate shale gas development into two stages, an innovation stage and a scaling-up stage, with the first presenting a much bigger challenge than t...

Background/Question/Methods While the desirability of ecological indicators that foster social science interpretation and use as well as public comprehension is well established, guidelines for developing indicators that meet these needs are not as well developed. In the past few years, economists have identified economic principles – based on pr...

A broad assessment is provided of the current state of knowledge regarding the risks associated with shale gas development and their governance. For the principal domains of risk, we identify observed and potential hazards and promising mitigation options to address them, characterizing current knowledge and research needs. Important unresolved res...

Hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas continues apace. This paper will present recent impartial analysis of the risks involved in such developments, and discuss how dialog across boundaries helps understand these risks

[1] Improvements in publically provided goods and services, like community drinking water treatment, have values to people arising from their self-interest, but may as well have value from their altruistic concerns. The extent to which the value is altruistic versus self-interested is an important empirical issue for policy analysis because the ben...

Hypothetical bias is one of the main issues bedeviling the field of nonmarket valuation. The general criticism is that survey responses reflect how people would like to behave, rather than how they actually behave. In our study of climate change and emissions reductions, we took advantage of the increasing bulk of evidence from psychology and econo...

Economic analyses of nature must somehow define the "environmental commodities" to which values are attached. We articulate principles to guide the choice and interpretation of nonmarket commodities. We describe how complex natural systems can be decomposed consistent with "ecological production theory," which, like conventional production theory,...

Concern has been raised in the scientific literature about the environmental implications of extracting natural gas from deep shale formations, and published studies suggest that shale gas development may affect local groundwater quality. The potential for surface water quality degradation has been discussed in prior work, although no empirical ana...

Using a choice experiment, we investigated preferences for distributing the economic burden of decreasing CO2 emissions in the two largest CO2-emitting countries: the United States and China. We asked respondents about their preferences for four burden-sharing rules to reduce CO2 emissions according to their country’s 1) historical emissions, 2) in...

Climate change is already having impacts on terrestrial ecosystem services and such impacts are only expected to broaden and worsen as greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) continue at their historic levels. To set appropriate policies for reducing GHG emissions, economists recommend the use of cost-benefit analysis. To perform such analyses, the predomi...

The federal government controls 700 million acres of subsurface rights (plus 56 million subsurface acres of Indian mineral estate) across 24 states, making it the largest landowner in the nation, and therefore in a position to negotiate lease terms and shape regulations of oil and gas development. The federal Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM) rules...

This paper reviews the impact of the shale gas revolution on the sectors of electricity generation, transportation, and manufacturing in the United States. Natural gas is being substituted for other fuels, particularly coal, in electricity generation, resulting in lower greenhouse gas emissions from this sector. The use of natural gas in the transp...

This is the first academic paper that reviews the economic, policy, and technology history of shale gas development in the United States. The primary objective of the paper is to answer the question of what led to the shale gas boom in the United States to help inform stakeholders in those countries that are attempting to develop their own shale ga...

The production of crude oil and natural gas from unconventional reservoirs has become a growth sector within the North American energy industry, and current projections indicate that the production of some of these unconventional fossil fuels will continue accelerating in the foreseeable future. This shift in the energy industry has been accompanie...

This paper reports results from a stated preference survey designed to estimate the willingness to pay for mortality risk reductions in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. The survey includes both contemporaneous and latent risk reductions of a magnitude typically achievable through clean air policy. The study is one of a series of national studies designed to...

This presentation will be part of a special session on shale gas risks. The presentation will cover the results of two projects: one is a novel, in-depth survey of shale gas experts in four groups - academics, NGOs, industry and regulators -- on what they see are the highest priority "impact pathways" (linkages from activities in shale gas developm...

In September 2011, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency promulgated the first-ever federal regulations mandating fuel economy improvements for heavy-duty commercial vehicles. While the performance-based approach to these rules offers familiarity and assurances of fuel economy improvements, it a...

We generalize the standard model of demand for a statistical life by more fully describing different health states and by recasting the model in an option price framework. By doing so, we eliminate several sources of upward bias in the VSL that result from excluding substitution possibilities. Our model permits distinct estimates of the individual'...

Currently, some 96 mostly urban areas violate the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone and 41 violate the standard for carbon monoxide (CO) (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1991a). If U.S. cities are to meet these standards, major reductions in emissions of CO and the ozone precursors—nitrogen oxides (NOX) and reactive vol...

We examine the value of health risk reductions (microbial illnesses/deaths and bladder cancer illnesses/deaths) in the context of drinking water quality treatment by public systems. When we assume that combined mortality and morbidity risk reductions are equally spread in the future; our results suggest that microbial risk-reduction programs have h...

The purpose of this paper is to provide a conceptual framework for understanding how analysis of costs and benefits might be incorporated into an assessment of regulatory policies affecting deepwater drilling. We begin by providing a framework for analyzing the life-cycle impacts of oil drilling and its alternatives, including onshore drilling and...

This paper provides (for the nonspecialist) a highly streamlined discussion of the main issues, and controversies, in the design of climate mitigation policy. The first part of the paper discusses how much action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at the global level is efficient under both the cost-effectiveness and welfare-maximizing paradigms. W...

In 2000 and 2001 Canadians were shocked by water contamination events that took place in two provinces. In 2004 we undertook an internet-based survey across Canada that asked respondents to identify in percentage terms their total drinking water consumption according to one of three sources: tap water, bottled water, and home-filtered water (either...

A contingent valuation study conducted in China, Sweden, and the United States was used to investigate citizens’ willingness to pay (WTP) for reducing CO2 emissions. We find that a majority of the respondents in all three countries believe that the mean global temperature has increased over the last 100 years and that humans are responsible for the...

Regulations designed to increase homeland security often require balancing large costs against highly uncertain benefits. An important component of these benefits is the reduced risk of fatalities from terrorist attacks. While the risk to an individual appears small, the benefits may be large when aggregated over the population. U.S. regulatory age...

According to recent assessments, the United States has considerably more recoverable natural gas in shale formations than was previously thought. Such a development raises expectations that U.S. energy consumption will shift toward natural gas. To examine how the apparent abundance of natural gas and projected growth of its use might affect natural...

Economic analyses of nature must somehow define the “environmental commodities” to which values are attached. This paper articulates a set of principles to guide the choice and interpretation of nonmarket commodities. We describe how complex natural systems can be decomposed consistent with what can be called “ecological production theory.” Ecologi...

This paper provides (for the nonspecialist) a highly streamlined discussion of the main issues, and controversies, in the design of climate mitigation policy. The first part of the paper discusses how much action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at the global level is efficient under both the cost-effectiveness and welfare-maximizing paradigms. W...

This article analyzes the costs and emissions characteristics of methanol vehicles. The cost-effectiveness of methanol-the cost per ton of reactive hydrocarbon emissions reduced-is calculated and compared to the cost-effectiveness of other hydrocarbon reduction strategies. Methanol is found to cost from $33,000 to nearly $60,000 per ton, while seve...

Studies investigating the air pollution and health co-benefits from climate change policies

This paper provides a review of the science pertaining to all aspects of acidification in the Adirondack Park, updating an earlier review of the science (Cook et al. 2002). The review supports an ongoing social science investigation into the willingness to pay for ecological improvements that would result from reduced acid deposition. This paper bu...

This article looks at a new approach to expert elicitation that combines basic elements of conventional expert elicitation protocols with formal survey methods and larger, heterogeneous expert panels. This approach is appropriate where the hazard-estimation task requires a wide range of expertise and professional experience. The ability to judge wh...

Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies can provide ancillary benefits in terms of short-term improvements in air quality and associated health benefits. Several studies have analyzed the ancillary impacts of GHG policies for a variety of locations, pollutants, and policies. In this paper we review the existing evidence on ancillary health benefit...

This guidance document is a reference for air quality policymakers and managers providing state-of-the-art, evidence-based information on key determinants of air quality management decisions. The document reflects the findings of five annual meetings of the NERAM (Network for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management) International Colloquium Se...

This statement is the result of discussions held at the 2005 NERAM IV Colloquium "International Perspectives on Air Quality: Risk Management Principles for Policy Development" and represents the collective views of 35 delegates, including international air quality policy analysts, academics, nongovernmental organizations, industry representatives,...

There is never enough money, time, or resources to do all the things that need to be done--a statement that is true both for governments and individuals. For governments, this fact implies that (1) priorities need to be established; (2) goals are essential to be set to address these priorities, partly with an eye toward maximizing the net benefits...

Economists often use people’s actions and choices to identify priorities for managing and protecting nature and for determining whether the benefit of a particular activity is greater than its cost. However, the desire to protect and improve ecological resources is not entirely revealed by people’s actions, but also reflects an intrinsic value that...

This paper examines how values of mortality and morbidity risk reductions are affected by altruism in the valuation of a public good—a drinking water treatment program that aims to reduce drinking water related health risks. We assume that an individual's total willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a public good consists of two parts: self-interested WTP an...

This paper outlines recent developments in U.S. climate policies. Although the United States does not participate in the Kyoto Mechanism, a number of climate policies are being implemented at state level as well as at the federal level. First, we report and compare the federal cap and trade proposals in the 110th Congress. Then, the paper illustrat...