Akintomide Afolayan Akinsanola

University of Illinois at Chicago | UIC · Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences

Plain Language Summary Extreme storms and precipitation are expected to become more intense with climate change. However, current global‐scale numerical models that are used for climate projections often misrepresent the intensity and timing of precipitation compared to observations, which can lower confidence in projected changes. The sources of t...

The impact of climate change on Sahel precipitation suffers from large uncertainties and is strongly model-dependent. In this study, we analyse sources of inter-model spread in Sahel precipitation change by decomposing precipitation into its dynamic and thermodynamic terms, using a large set of climate model simulations. Results highlight that mode...

Increased knowledge of future changes in rainfall variability is needed to reduce vulnerability to potential impacts of global warming, especially in highly vulnerable regions like West Africa. While changes in mean and extreme rainfall have been studied extensively, rainfall variability has received less attention, despite its importance. In this...

Realistically representing the present-day characteristics of extreme precipitation has been a challenge for global climate models, which is due in part to deficiencies in model resolution and physics, but is also due to a lack of consistency in gridded observations. In this study, we use three observation datasets, including gridded rain gauge and...

The development of wind energy in West Africa is essential to meet the rising energy needs due to population growth and societal development. However, only few studies have investigated the changes in turbine hub-height wind characteristics over the region under changing climate. This study aims at assessing the impact of climate change on wind pow...

Accurate simulation of the present-day characteristics of mean and extreme precipitation at regional scales remains a challenge for Earth system models (ESMs), which is due in part to deficiencies in model physics such as convective parameterization (CP), and coarse resolution. High horizontal resolution (HR, ~25 km) and multiscale modeling framewo...

This study examines the effect of land cover, vegetation health, climatic forcings, elevation heat loads, and terrain characteristics (LVCET) on land surface temperature (LST) distribution over West Africa (WA). We employ fourteen machine-learning models, which preserve nonlinear relationships, to downscale LST and other predictands while preservin...

This study examines the effect of land cover, vegetation health, climatic forcings, elevation heat loads and terrain characteristics (LVCET) on land surface temperature (LST) distribution in West Africa (WA). We employed fourteen machine-learning models, which preserve nonlinear relationships to downscale LST while preserving WA's geographical vari...

Southern African easterly jet (AEJ-S) is an important mid-tropospheric feature critical to understanding the tropical convective system over central Africa and the aerosol-cloud interactions over the southeast Atlantic Ocean. However, it remains unclear how well models represent AEJ-S and its influence on aerosol transport, clouds, and precipitatio...

Conventional low‐resolution (LR) climate models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1), have well‐known biases in simulating the frequency, intensity, and timing of precipitation. Approaches to next‐generation E3SM, whether the high‐resolution (HR) or multiscale modeling framework (MMF) configuration, improve the simulation of t...

Climate simulations at convection-permitting (CP) spatial resolution could offer an improved representation of precipitation. To fully assess the benefits of CP simulations, we need multi-decadal simulations at global and regional scales. This first-in-class study presents results from 20-year simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting...

Understanding how droughts are characterized, propagated, and projected, particularly multivariate droughts, is necessary to explain the variability and changes in drought characteristics. This study aims to understand multimodel global drought monitoring, propagation, and projection by utilizing a multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) dur...

Extreme events like flooding, droughts, and heatwave are among the factors causing huge socio-economic losses to Cameroonians. Investigating the potential response of rainfall and temperature extremes to global warming is therefore critically needed for tailoring and adjusting the country's policies. Recent datasets have been developed for this pur...

Understanding real uncertainties in projections is needed to support actions of decision and policy makers. In this study, two state-of-the-art regional climate models with ~25 km horizontal resolution forced with three different global climate models are employed to investigate the response of the West African Monsoon (WAM) system under the low (R...

This chapter compares six gridded products over West Africa: Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS); Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM); Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP); Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC); Climate Prediction Center (CPC); and CPC MORPHing technique (CMORPH), in or...

In this study, the performance of sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating extreme precipitation indices over West Africa has been evaluated. Nine extreme precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) have been used. The performance of CMIP6 models and the...

Precipitation patterns over West Africa display a broad range of timescales, from the intraseasonal to decadal timescales, as well as multidecadal shifts. Here we investigate the dominant patterns of the July to September precipitation over the region and the related atmosphere-ocean anomalies during the satellite-era from 1983 to 2017. Using exten...

The tropical Atlantic climate has undergone long-term changes that are projected to accelerate under future global warming. The impact of these changes extends from the marine ecosystem to continental climate. The Tropical Atlantic Observing System (TAOS) is key to monitoring and understanding these changes and reducing uncertainties in climate pro...

The Eastern Africa region experiences frequent extreme precipitation events that can cause destruction of property and environment, and loss of lives. Thus, there is a need to understand how these events may change in the future and how well the global climate models that are used to make projections can simulate precipitation extremes in this regi...

The original article can be found online.

Quantifying how climate change may impact precipitation extremes is a priority for informing adaptation and policy planning. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models are analyzed to identify robust signals of projected changes in summer and winter precipitation extremes over the United States (US)....

The energy industry is faced with important investment and optimization choices especially for wind power as a fuel of the future, especially for China which boasts the largest installed wind power capacity. This study therefore assessed the potential status of future wind power over China using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5)...

West African Summer Monsoon (WASM) rainfall exhibits large variability at interannual and decadal timescales, causing droughts and floods in many years. Therefore it is important to investigate the major tropospheric features controlling the WASM rainfall and explore its potential to develop an objective monsoon index. In this study, monthly mean r...

Realistically representing the characteristics of extreme precipitation alongside the small- and large-scale processes that govern these events has been a challenge for climate models with parameterized convection and low resolution. In this study, we use a range of observational datasets to assess simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison...

Realistically representing the present day characteristics of extreme precipitation has been challenging for both gridded observations and climate model simulations. In this study, we use a range of observational datasets to assess simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP 6 and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model...

In recent decades, drought has been identified as part of the several regular climate-related hazards happening in many African countries including South Africa, often with devastating implications on food security. Studies have shown that the earth temperature has increased over the recent years which can trigger drought occurrences and other clim...

The West African Summer Monsoon (WASM) supplies around 362 million people with 80% of their total annual rainfall, which is necessary for agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, human consumption, and industrial purposes. Given the population density of this region, a substantial fraction of Africa’s population is therefore critically sensitiv...

West Africa faces an increasing challenge related to water resources in the coming decades; hence high-confidence climate projection is crucial for the region’s future. In this study, future changes in summer monsoon rainfall under the RCP8.5 scenario were investigated over West Africa for the period of 2074–2099 with respect to the present-day per...

The West African summer monsoon (WASM) rainfall is of significant socioeconomic importance. Therefore, its response to climate change is of great concern to climate scientists. Based on observations, reanalysis, and multi-model ensemble mean (EnsMean) simulations of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, the responses of WASM...

The central-eastern Sahel (CES) subregion of West Africa has experienced a significant increasing trend in summer monsoon rainfall during 1980–2012, but the reasons remain unclear. In this study, we employ a moisture budget analysis to assess the controlling mechanisms and to quantify the contributions of different factors to this increasing trend....

This study presents observed changes in climate extremes using daily precipitation and temperature data over twenty‐four (24) stations, covering the three climatic zones (Guinea coast, Savannah and Sahel) of Nigeria for the period of 1971‐2013. The data was homogenized with the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI) RHtests versio...

Global warming has a profound impact on the vulnerable environment of West Africa; hence, robust climate projection, especially of rainfall extremes, is quite important. Based on two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, projected changes in extreme summer rainfall events over West Africa were investigated using data from the Coordi...

Land use change is the main driving force of global environmental change and is considered as most central to various debates on sustainable development. Even though a large volume of literature materials is available on land use/land cover change for many areas, very little work has been done on land use and its implications on land surface therma...

Rainfall events often cause a modification to atmospheric conditions. The impact of this phenomenon on human thermal comfort has however been less well studied. Therefore, this paper quantifies the effect of rainfall events on human thermal comfort in a hot-humid subtropical city, Hong Kong. Firstly, rainfall events were categorized based on time o...

This study analyses observed spatial trends in the summer monsoon rainfall over West Africa from 1998 to 2013 using two gridded observation datasets. The trends are calculated with the Kendall’s tau based slope estimator. Results show significant changes of the West African summer monsoon rainfall. Increases in the summer monsoon rainfall (measured...

West Africa faces an increasing challenge of water resource in the coming decades; hence high-confidence climate projection is crucial for the region's future. In this study, future changes in summer monsoon rainfall under the RCP8.5 scenario were investigated over West Africa for the period of 2074-2099 with respect to the present-day period of 19...

This study presents evaluation of the ability of Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) driven by nine global circulation models (GCMs), to skilfully reproduce the key features of rainfall climatology over West Africa for the period of 1980-2005. The seasonal climatology and annual cycle of the RCA4 simulations were assessed over three homogen...

The spatial variation and composition of surface energy fluxes across different land use over Akure, Nigeria has been investigated using the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) approach. In 1984, built up area had the lowest net radiation with a mean value of 472.56 W/m², while the highest net radiation was over the forested area (mea...

The paper aimed at assessing the capabilities and limitations of five different precipitation products to describe rainfall over West Africa. Five gridded precipitation datasets of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Multi-Platform Analysis (TMPA 3B43v7); University of Delaware (UDEL version 3.01); Climatic Research Unit (CRU version 3...

The study is aimed at investigating urban heat island over Abuja based on the relationship between land surface temperature estimated from Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) band and four vegetation indices from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) bands. The four vegetation indices considered are the Red Edge Normalized Difference Vegetat...

The objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of seven CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs), driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset to simulate the observed rainfall characteristics over West Africa during the period of 1990--2008. The seasonal climatology, annual rainfall cycles, interannual variability, 850 hPa specific humidity, and...

The objective of this study is to evaluate the capability of seven CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs), driven by Era-interim reanalysis dataset to simulate the observed rainfall characteristics over West Africa during the period of 1990-2008. The seasonal climatology, annual rainfall cycles, inter-annual variability, 850 hPa specific humidity an...

Accurately predicting precipitation trends is vital in the economic development of a country. Ground observed data from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET) was analyzed to study the long-term spatio-temporal trends of rainfall on annual and seasonal scales for 23 stations in Nigeria during a 40-year period spanning from 1974 to 2013. After te...

This simple NCL script: Convert monthly total values to ”per day” values. For example: Converting CRU, GPCC precipitation datasets from “mm/month” to “mm/day”

A regional climate model (RegCM4.4) has been used to investigate the dynamical effect of dust aerosol radiative forcing and its impact on West African climate. The simulations was performed with the non-dust aerosol version of the model (control) and a dust aerosol module for the year 2010. The spatial and temporal distribution of the aerosol optic...

Although the concept of wind energy potential assessments has matured considerably, there is only limited application and adoption in regions of energy crisis where electricity demand far exceeds supply. For Nigeria, seeking alternate sources of energy to meet its energy demand is essential and must be met in a sustainable practice. This study anal...

With more than 78% of Nigerians living in cities, urbanization has had an important impact on climatic variations. Lagos Metropolis is located in a region experiencing rapid urbanization, which has produced a remarkable Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. This effect influences the climate and socio-economic development on a regional scale. In this stu...

The study diagnostically evaluate the atmospheric conditions that led to the heavy rainfall event of September 29, 2012 in Nigeria using data from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Multi-Platform Analysis (TMPA 3B43v7) and European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), Era-Interim reanalysis. The spatial pattern of precipitation, ho...

This study evaluates the ability of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) used in Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) to simulate the characteristics of rainfall pattern during the West Africa Summer Monsoon from 1998 to 2008. The seasonal climatology, annual rainfall cycles, and wind fields of the RCMs output were assessed...

Observed rainfall and temperature data for the period 1960-2007 were used to examine recent changes of extreme climate over Kano, located in the Sahelian region of Nigeria. The RClimDex software package was employed to generate nine important climate indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI)...

The study evaluates the ability of three Regional Climate model (RCMs) used in the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) activity driven by the same initial and boundary conditions (ERA-Interim) in simulating the characteristics of rainfall pattern over West Africa from 1998-2008. The seasonal climatology, annual rainfall cyc...

Land Surface Temperature (LST) is an important climatic factor in both ecological and climate studies. LST is the temperature recorded at the interface between the earth surface and the immediate atmosphere. The need to predict and manage the potential impact of climate change due to increased surface temperature necessitates an accurate study on m...

This study investigates rainfall and temperature variabilities in Nigeria using observations of air temperature (oC) and rainfall (mm) from 25 synoptic stations from 1971-2000 (30years). The data were analyzed for the occurrences of abrupt changes in temperature and rainfall values over Nigeria while temporal and spatial trends were also investigat...

The study investigates the relationship between equivalent potential temperature and cold spell during some days in the month of January 1983 in Nigeria using records of surface pressure, temperature and relative humidity from 18 synoptic stations at 0600GMT. The equivalent potential and temperature anomalies were plotted to determine the extreme t...

The Sahelian West Africa (Long 20W:20E, Lat 0:30N) by its climatological and geographical conditions is a key region for the characterization of global atmospheric aerosol optical properties. This study evaluates the spatial and temporal variation of the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD440nm), aerosol particle size characterization (Angstrom exponent (α4...