Afsin Sahin

Ankara Haci Bayram Veli University · Finance and Banking

Bu çalışmada etkileşimli vektör otoregresif model yardımıyla, farklı enflasyon belirsizliği düzeylerinde daraltıcı para politikasının makroekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki etkinliği Türkiye aylık 1991: 01 – 2014: 01 verisi ile analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, faiz oranındaki bir artış döviz kuru, fiyat düzeyi ve gelir düzeyinde azalışa...

Along with most other central banks, Turkey’s central bank has implemented unconventional policies since the 2007/2008 financial crisis. Financial stability has been one of the targets of these macroprudential policies. However, since Turkey is working toward this goal without increasing its inflation rate, tracking only short-term interest rates t...

This paper investigates output–employment relationships across different employment statuses and formal versus informal employment divisions for Turkey. Even if we fail to find a long-run relationship between aggregate output and total employment, there are long-run relationships between the aggregate output with all of the formal employment status...

Kısa ve uzun vadeli tahvillerin faiz oranları arasındaki farkı yansıtan getiri farkı, Getiri Eğrisi’nin eğimi takip edilerek izlenebilmektedir. Getiri farkı, barındırdığı içsel bilgi yanında iktisadi değişkenlerin gelecekteki seyri ile ilgili piyasalara sinyal verebilmektedir. Bu sinyallerden bir tanesi de gelecekte iktisadi üretimin izleyeceği dön...

Beklenti kavramı, iktisadi anlamda, bireylerin gelecekteki ekonomik koşullarla ilgili bekleyişlerini yansıtan değişkenlerin gelecekteki değerlerine ilişkin algılarına odaklanır. Enflasyon beklentileri; iktisadi davranışların, finansal kararların ve politika sonuçlarının önemli belirleyicilerinden olmakla birlikte merkez bankalarının enflasyonu kont...

Franklin D. Roosvelt once stressed the importance of a country’s investment for youth by his saying “We cannot always build the future for our youth, but we can build our youth for the future.”. Investment for a human capital through formal and informal education methods increases the employment level of a country in the long-run. Turkey stimulated...

Within the fields of risk management and banking, the normality condition is one of the basic assumptions to apply value at risk, capital asset pricing or linear regression models on credit risk assessment. However, banking sector data related to loans may not be normally distributed. Hence, it needs to be put through scientific tests. For this pur...

In economics, some transactions are conducted by the bid rate, and some are conducted by the ask rate. The spread between these two rates creates an essential cost and inefficiency for the economy. Taking these problems into account, the purpose of this study was to analyze the effects of macroeconomic and financial variables on the USD/TL exchange...

BASİRETLİ TACİR, İKTİSADİ DEĞİŞKENLER VE RASYONEL BEKLEYİŞLER ÖZET Bu çalışmada dört adet analiz yapılmaktadır. Birinci analizde; Türkiye’de döviz kuru ve enflasyon konularında Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası’nın (TCMB) piyasa katılımcılarına uyguladığı anket sonucu verilerinden yararlanarak; gerçekleşen değişkenlerle, bu değişkenlere ilişkin k...

The confidence is a belief and has a psychological origin but investigated interactively within the framework of behavioral analysis. Banking sector transactions are also based on the confidence and has consequences over the economy. Therefore, there is a need for objectifying the concept; especially, measuring it is not easy and requires a specifi...

Within the fields of risk management and banking, the normality condition is one of the basic assumptions to apply value at risk, capital asset pricing or linear regression models on credit risk assessment. However, banking sector data related to loans may not be normally distributed. Hence, it needs to be put through scientific tests. For this pur...

This book consists of three parts. Initially, it discusses issues relevant to money, monetary policy and central banking. The second part is devoted to the banking sector and includes topics such as the role of banking and finance in the economic growth, and presents the measurement techniques with respect to the confidence in the banking sector. S...

The efficiency of the stock market is tested by linear and non-linear methods benefiting from variables such as exchange rate, interest rate, money supply, and commodity prices. This paper specifically focuses on the exchange rate variable for an oil producer country, Kuwait, and tries to estimate parameters using the Classical Linear Regression Mo...

Franklin D. Roosvelt once stressed the importance of a country’s investment for youth by his saying “We cannot always build the future for our youth, but we can build our youth for the future.”. Investment for a human capital through formal and informal education methods increases the employment level of a country in the long-run. Turkey stimulated...

Sanayi Devrimi’nden bu yana hızla ilerleyen teknolojinin toplumsal yaşamda ve ekonomide büyük değişimlere yol açtığı izlenip görülebilir. Sanayi devrimiyle birlikte üretimdeki makineleşmenin sosyo-ekonomik bir sorun olan işsizliği artırıp artırmadığı da hep bir tartışma konusu olmuştur. Günümüzde ise robotların, yapay zekâların giderek daha fazla t...

Takipteki Kredilerin Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri: Moğolistan Bankacılık Sektörü Üzerine Bir Uygulama Özet: Bu çalışmada, En Küçük Kareler (OLS) ve Quantil Regresyon (QR) yöntemleri kullanılarak merkez bankası reel politika faiz oranı, enflasyon oranı, para arzı, reel döviz kuru ve altın fiyatlarının Moğolistan ekonomisinde takibe düşen krediler ü...

In this paper, we assess the effects of Central Bank Funding (C.B.F.) on commercial bank lending behaviour by using weekly Turkish data from 7 January 2011 to 5 June 2015. To be specific, using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Error Correction Model, we assess the effects of C.B.F. provided daily by the Central Bank of the Republic of T...

This paper analyzes the effects of the real policy interest rate on the banking sector lending rate, the deposit rate, real stock prices, and the real exchange rate using the Engle Granger cointegration method (EG), the vector error-correction model (VECM), and the nonlinear vector error-correction model (NVECM) with monthly Turkish data over the p...

Uncertainty in economic and financial variables has substantially changed the dynamics in monetary economics during the last two decades in oil‐producing countries. However, there are types of uncertainties which affect these countries heterogeneously in the short run and long run. For this purpose, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) is es...

ÖZ: Bankacılıkta zimmet vakaları makroekonomik ve finansal göstergelerden etkilenebilmektedir. Bu çalışmada; En Küçük Kareler (OLS) yöntemi ve Türkiye 2002-2016 çeyrek dönem verisi kullanılarak, takipteki kredilerin toplam krediler içindeki payının ve mevduatların bankacılık sektöründe zimmet suçundan mahkûm olmuş kişi sayısına etkileri tahmin edil...

Bu çalışmada, Klasik Doğrusal Regresyon Modeli, 2017 yılı Türkiye 81 ili bazında yatay kesit verisine uygulanmış; uzlaştırmacı teklifinin mağdur ve fail tarafınca kabulü sonrasında uzlaşma ile sonuçlanan dosya sayısının Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla, Kişi Başına Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla ve nüfustaki yüzde bir oranında artış karşısındaki esnekliği pozi...

ÖZET: Son yıllarda gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yapılan yatırımlar artışa geçmiş ancak makroekonomik büyüme görünüme etkin ve yeterli düzeyde yansımamıştır. Bu çalışmada Kırılgan Beşli ülkeleri olarak adlandırılan Brezilya, Hindistan, Endonezya, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye'de Brüt Sabit Sermaye Oluşumundaki değişimin Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıladaki değişim i...

Özet. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye İstanbul Ticaret Odası Toptan Eşya Fiyatları Endeksi (1968-2015) ve alt bileşenleri arasındaki koşullu korelasyon ilişkisi asimetrik bir model yapısı çerçevesinde analiz edilmektedir. Mevsimsellikten arındırılmamış veriler ile elde edilen ACCC bulguları Türkiye’de gıda, inşaat ve döviz kurunun genel enflasyon oranına etk...

Background and Objective: Neutrality of money hypothesis is one of the widely researched topics in economics claiming that the effect of money supply on output is positive in the short-run but disappears in the long-run. Besides this level effect, relationship between the volatilities of these two variables is also another interesting subject to in...

İktisadi olaylar, savaşlar, teknolojik inovasyonlar, iktisadi belirsizlikler para talebi serisinde yapısal kırılmalara veya trend değişimlerine yol açmaktadır. İktisat literatüründe, para talebinin gelire, faize ve enflasyona duyarlılığının sırasıyla pozitif, negatif ve negatif olduğu artık kabul edilmektedir. Ancak iktisadi belirsizliğin ihtiyat,...

Bu calismada, hisse senedi piyasasinin onemli bir kisminin yabancilar tarafindan tutuldugu ve Kirilgan Besli olarak adlandirilan ulkelerde, doviz kurunun hisse senedi piyasasi uzerindeki kisa ve uzun vadeli etkileri tahmin edilmistir. Uzun donemli etkiler Engle Granger ve Johansen esbutunlesme yontemleri ile tahmin edilirken, kisa donem etkiler En...

This paper investigates the nature of the output-employment relationship by using the Turkish quarterly data for the period from 1988 to 2008. Even if we fail to find a long-run relationship between aggregate output and total employment, there are long-run relationships for the aggregate output with non-agricultural employment and sectoral employme...

This paper assesses the effectiveness of a novel macroprudential tool – the reserve option mechanism – which Turkey’s central bank developed and has employed during the post-2008 period to control the risk associated with excessive capital flows. To be particular we assess how the capital flows affect economic variables changes with the introductio...

This paper assesses the effectiveness of a novel macroprudential tool – the reserve option mechanism – which Turkey’s central bank developed and has employed during the post-2008 period to control the risk associated with excessive capital flows. To be particular we assess how the capital flows affect economic variables changes with the introductio...

Ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation method has strict assumptions such as normality, homoscedasticity and no-autocorrelation of residuals and an aim is to estimate conditional mean functions. By the time being, considering weaker assumptions and properties of data, quantile regression method (QR) has started to be used following the works of Ko...

Exchange rate affects manufacturing sector through investment and balance sheet channels. The second channel seems to be dominant for Turkey where an increase in exchange rate increases the costs of firms and may diminish their profits. A possible common explanation for this phenomenon is the high degree of liability dollarization, supply side. Tha...

Finansal krizler 20. yüzyılda artan finansal derinlik ve etkileşim ile birlikte gerek gelişmiş, gerekse de gelişmekte olan ülkelerde daha sık gözlenmeye başlanmıştır. Finansal piyasaların çeşitlenmesi ve yaygınlaşması, ekonomilere pek çok yarar getirmekle beraber, krizlerde kırılganlığı artıran unsurlar arasında yer almıştır. Yaratıcı yıkım kapsamı...

This paper provides a set of empirical evidence from five Northern Mediterranean countries that are subject to similar refinery reference prices regarding the relative sensitivity of crude oil prices and exchange rate on (pre-tax) petroleum product prices. The empirical evidence reveals that a one percent increase in crude oil prices increases petr...

The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of the behavior of participation rates in terms of gender differences. We employed smooth autoregressive transition models for the quarterly Turkish labor force participation rates (LFPR) data between 2000: Q1 - 2011: Q4 to present an asymmetric participation behavior. The smoothness param...

This paper proposes a new liquidity measure for a small open economy. The new measure includes the net liquidity provided to the system by a central bank after accounting for the central bank’s involvement in the foreign exchange market. Empirical evidence gathered from Turkey suggests that a positive innovation in liquidity increases output tempor...

Optimal planning of the health workers is of vital importance for a country. Distribution of health workers among provinces in emerging markets is an important development criterion. In this study, biplot graphical approach is used to determine the distribution of health workers. The results of biplot analysis point out that the distribution of the...

This paper proposes a measure to assess the monetary policy for a highly inflationary small open economy: Turkey. The empirical evidence suggests that positive innovations in the spread between the Central Bank’s interbank interest rate and the depreciation rate of the local currency mimic the properties of the tight monetary policy. These innovati...

This paper analysis how short-run interest rates are used to manage expectations of market participants in Turkey. The dynamic effects of short-run interest rates on the expected inflation, growth, exchange rate and interest rate for the period from August, 2001 to March, 2009 using Turkish data are investigated. It is claimed that the response of...

This paper assesses the presence of seasonal volatility in price indexes where a similar type of pattern has been reported in asset prices in financial markets. The empirical evidence from Turkey for the monthly period from 1987:01 to 2007:05 suggests the presence of seasonality in the conditional variance of inflation. Thus, inferences for the mod...

The purpose of this paper is to assess the seasonal inflation uncertainties for a big open economy, the US, for the period from January 1947 to April 2008. The paper uses EGARCH model which includes volatility in the conditional mean equation capturing the short-term and long-term volatility forecasts and leverage effects. The results indicate that...

This paper further investigates the relationship between the defense & security spending and the industrial production by using newly defined monthly data in the case of Turkey for January, 2004-December, 2008. The conventional and contemporary unit root tests were implemented to determine the long-run behavior of the data. Ordinary Least Square, J...

In this study we investigated the two basic issues affected the Ottoman silk industry. The first one is the global Price Revolution; the second is the wars between Ottoman and Iran. The silk industry in Bursa which was the most important silk center of Ottoman had been affected negatively from these events. The non-tariff barriers had been created...

In this study we investigated the two basic issues affected the Ottoman silk industry. The first one is the global Price Revolution; the second is the wars between Ottoman and Iran. The silk industry in Bursa which was the most important silk center of Ottoman had been affected negatively from these events. The non-tariff barriers had been created...

The aim of this study is to assess any regularity relative price dispersion for the effect of monetary policy tool selection. Central banks use tools such as interbank rate and exchange rate when pursuing their (monetary) policies. The selected tools affect economic variables differently. By using Turkish monthly data for the 1988:2-2008:2 period,...

The balancing role of the government to close the production and consumption gap is always in question during thedepression economics. Together with the major developed countries, Turkish real sector also experienced an economic crisisduring last years. Reevaluating this reality this paper aims to analyze the relationship between government spendin...

In this article we have tried to assess the possible relationships between shuttle trade and the expletory variables, export (f.o.b.), import (c.i.f.) and CPI based real effective US dollar exchange rate. We employed monthly data of Turkey covering the years from 1996:01 to 2006:12 and forecasted the parameters by Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estima...

The paper examines the response of inflation, wheat price changes and changes in the purchase quantity of the government. The study was conducted in Turkey, based on the secondary data collected from the Turkish Grain Board, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. The study shows that there is a significant relationship between inflation and change...

Energy is one of the basic micro dynamics of the general economy. Turkey as one of the candidate countries to the European Union is dependent on the petroleum and natural gas as the member states. Along with this, Turkey should turn to other energy sources bethinking the high population increase. In this article, we have investigated the relationsh...

In this study we initially have tried to explore the wheat situation in Turkey, which has a small-open economy and in the member countries of European Union (EU). We have observed that increasing the wheat yield is fundamental to obtain comparative advantage among countries by depressing domestic prices. Also the changing structure of supporting sc...

Çalışmada 1996:1-2004:12 dönemi aylık verileri için Çiftçinin Eline Geçen Fiyatlar Endeksi (ÇEF) ile Tüketici Fiyatlar Endeksi (TÜFE), Toptan Eşya Fiyat Endeksi (TEFE) ve döviz kuru arası kointegrasyon ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Endeksler arası kısa dönemli ilişkinin de pozitif olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Çıkan ilişkiye bağlı olarak, fiyatlar genel düzeyi...

This paper assesses the day of the week effect of the daily depreciation of the Turkish lira (TL) against the US dollar (USD) and its volatility. The empirical evidence from Turkey presented here suggests that Thursdays are associated with higher and Mondays with lower depreciation rates compared to those of Wednesdays. Moreover, Mondays and Tuesda...