Adrien DetgesAdelphi Research
Adrien Detges
PhD
About
28
Publications
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365
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Citations since 2017
Publications
Publications (28)
Le changement climatique joue un rôle important dans l’avenir du Sahel. Les
températures, en particulier dans le Nord du Sahel central, pourraient augmenter 1,5 fois plus vite que la moyenne mondiale. Les chocs climatiques et les événements extrêmes tels que les sécheresses et les fortes pluies pourraient devenir plus fréquents et plus graves. Ces...
Climate change plays an important role in the future of the Sahel. Temperatures,
particularly in the northern-central Sahel, could rise 1.5 times faster than the global
average. Climate shocks and extreme events such as droughts and heavy rains are
projected to become more frequent and severe. These changes are accompanied by other challenges: a...
This report offers guidance for climate change adaptation programming in fragile and conflictaffected contexts. It consists of a guide on conflict-sensitive adaptation as well as three analytical chapters which describe the analytical, conceptual and empirical basis. The guide outlines how to design and implement an adaptation project in a fragile...
As the impacts of climate change begin to take hold, increased attention is being paid to the consequences that might occur remotely from the location of the initial climatic impact, where impacts and responses are transmitted across one or more borders. As an economy that is highly connected to other regions and countries of the world, the Europea...
This study examines future impacts of climate change on water resources and the ensuing economic and political challenges in the Euphrates-Tigris basin shared by the countries of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey.
The study focuses on three different risks that are affected through climate-related water challenges: (1) livelihoods and food security, (2...
This policy paper summarises the main findings from research conducted under CASCADES on the Central Sahel, covering Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.
This report sheds light on the possible effects of climate change on development and security in the Central Sahel, namely in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.
This report provides a review - based on both literature and data sources - of the current linkages between the European Union (EU-27) and other world regions from the perspective of the three pillars of the Cascades project: trade (supply chains), financial investments (equity and debt-based), and security and development concerns (migration, over...
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors are indebted to Oli Brown and Paige McClanahan for their many helpful comments and a great edit.
Proponents of the environmental peacemaking approach argue that environmental cooperation has the potential to improve relations between states. This is because such cooperation facilitates common problem solving, cultivates interdependence, and helps to build trust and understanding. But as of now, very few cross-case studies on environmental peac...
Recent years have seen a surge in the number of scientific studies, reports and newspaper articles portraying possible connections between climate variability and violent conflict. As sudden changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to become more frequent in certain areas due to climate change, researchers and decision-makers alike hav...
We clarify three arguments regarding our study (Adams et al. 2018 in Nature Climate Change 8). Sampling bias is a serious issue in climate-conflict research. Criticizing the research field should not be conflated with a critique of individual studies. The sampling biases we uncover pose a problem for sustainable development and climate adaptation.
Critics have argued that the evidence of an association between climate change and conflict is flawed because the research relies on a dependent variable sampling strategy1–4. Similarly, it has been hypothesized that convenience of access biases the sample of cases studied (the ‘streetlight effect’⁵). This also gives rise to claims that the climate...
This article contributes to the literature on securitisation in a twofold way. Firstly, it argues that school textbooks reveal the consolidated discursive realms of a given society and convey them to the next generation. Focusing on school textbooks can thus enrich the analysis of facilitating conditions for securitisation processes. The second and...
In recent years, a growing number of studies have appeared that analyse the statistical relationship between climate change and violent conflict. Whilst this research offers a comprehensive and systematic assessment of emerging climate-security risks, its results remain ambiguous and are often misinterpreted. This is all the more serious as quantit...
Droughts are unlikely to influence support for political violence unless they coincide with unfavourable social and political conditions. In this article I suggest that support for violence in times of drought depends on people's relationship with their government and the way in which this relationship determines their vulnerability to adverse clim...
Droughts are unlikely to in6uence support for political violence unless they coincide with unfavourable social and political conditions. In this article I suggest that support for violence in times of drought depends on people's relationship with their government and the way in which this relationship determines their vulnerability to adverse clima...
Despite growing concerns about the possible security implications of extreme precipitation shortfalls in vulnerable and politically fragile regions, the particular conditions that make armed violence more or less likely in times of drought remain poorly understood. Using a spatially disaggregated research design and focusing on sub-Saharan Africa,...
Methods of spatially disaggregated conflict analysis are becoming increasingly popular and open avenues for systematic micro-level research. Especially within the field of environmental security research they bear the promise of a better assessment of environment–conflict linkages at the sub-national level. Yet, this branch of research lacks a thor...
Currently, the security implications of climate change are ranking high on the agenda of policymakers. According to several experts, environmental variability and associated shortages of essential agricultural resources already contribute to armed conflicts in ecologically and economically fragile regions of the world such as Sub-Saharan Africa. Th...
Whether an increase in the scarcity of renewable resources like arable land can be considered as a valid cause of armed conflict or not remains a fervently debated question in environmental security research. Systematic quantitative investigation of the causal connection between resource scarcity and conflict, so far, has exclusively focused on sup...
Innerstaatliche Kriege in zerfallenen und zerfallenden Staaten sind eine der häufigsten Formen bewaffneter Auseinandersetzungen der Gegenwart. Sie weisen Muster der Gewaltanwendung auf, die sich insbesondere mit dem klassischen Instrumentarium der quantitativen Konfliktforschung nicht mehr erklären lassen. Da sie meist in Teilgebieten einzelner Sta...
Although a recurrent argument in politics, the media and popular science, the Neo-Malthusian hypothesis, that rising population numbers combined with adverse environmental change would lead to violent distributional conflicts over increasingly scarcer renewable resources like water or farmland, has received varying appreciations by the scientific c...
Questions
Questions (10)
Can someone recommend a good overview of factors driving the foreign policy interests of EU countries vis-à-vis non-EU countries?
Preferably the overview would help answering questions like:
- what are the most important factors (e.g. trade, common membership in regional organisations...)?
- based on empirical evidence, can we say that some factors are more important than others?
- how stable/volatile are factors over time?
- are there pronounced differences between factors across EU countries?
Any help is highly appreciated
As far as I know, there is a growing literature, which discusses the potential of public service delivery to contribute to peace-building via increasing the legitimacy of service providers (often assumed to be governmental agencies), but what about the other way around? Are there situations where poor public service provision leads to a crisis of legitimacy and subsequent political instability? Are there major differences with regard to different types of services, modalities of service provision and contexts (e.g. during humanitarian emergencies)? Is there a literature that discusses these questions, in particular with reference to water services?
Any leads will be highly appreciated.
Dear South Africa experts,
I am currently conducting research for the ecc-factbook, an information tool on the intersection of climate change, resource management and security. I would highly appreciate your help on the following points:
In your opinion, what are the main conflicts (violent, non-violent potentially violent) surrounding water use in South Africa? What are main initiatives to resolve these conflicts / to guarantee more efficient and equitable water use in South Africa? How could these conflicts be affected by climatic changes?
I am equally interested in conflicts of interests between different user-groups (e.g. mining sector vs. agricultural sector) and conflicts between South Africa and her neighbours.
Thank you in advance for your participation!
Working on a current project, I was wondering if there were a large difference between the effect of (meteorological) droughts in mountain and plain regions. I am particularly interested here in possible negative effects on local farming and pastoralist production systems.
Any help on this point will be highly appreciated.
I have recently come across GIS road data from the Africa Infrastructure Knowledge Program (http://www.infrastructureafrica.org/documents/list/roads). I found these data helpful for three reasons:
1) They are freely available
2) They cover most sub-saharan countries
3) Information on road surface (e.g. paved/unpaved, asphalt/gravel/earth) is available for all surveyed countries
Do these data have serious limitations, I should be aware of? And if yes, could you recommend better data, which allow a comprehensive assessment of paved roads in Africa?
Thank you
Hello. I'm a political scientist, so this is rather new to me, but could you briefly explain why the adverse effects of a drought are exacerbated when the drought takes place on already degraded land? I have seen several references to this argument, but I still miss an explanation.Thank you very much.
Hello. I'm trying to gain an overview of different efforts to reduce political violence and gang violence in South African cities after 1994, both at the local and national level and in between. I’m particularly interested in measures and programmes against violence in the Johannesburg- and Durban areas. Could you recommend me a few good sources? Thank you.
I’m currently looking for a way to rank the success of different conflict resolution and/ or peacebuilding initiatives throughout the world. Do you know of any data project with such indicators or methodological literature, which would help me discerning the most relevant criteria for determining various levels of success?
Hello. I'm looking for well-documented examples of violent conflicts directly or indirectly related to drought or increased drought frequency.
I am looking more particularly for in-depth case studies, which highlight the different stages of the possible mechanisms leading from drought to conflict in different situations.
Any leads?
I am looking for fieldwork conducted in northern Kenya, which describes typical patterns of herd management in concordance with seasonal variations in rainfall and the spatial distribution of relevant features such as wells, dry season grazing areas etc. Moreover I would like to know if there are significant differences between regions (for example between Turkana County and Marsabit County). Any suggestions?
Projects
Projects (5)
Climate impacts outside Europe are likely to affect European foreign, security and development policy through their effect on livelihoods, water, food and energy systems, security and diplomatic relations in countries with close ties to the EU and its member states.
- This work stream within the Horizon 2020 project "CASCADES" analyses impacts of climate change on livelihoods, water, food security, displacements, and conflict in third countries and assesses possible implications for the EU. Research emphasises focus regions of European foreign, security and development policy such as the Sahel and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).
- We identify major policy challenges and opportunities for the EU and its member states, as well as implications for the evolving role of the EU within the international system. Based on this assessment, we develop detailed recommendations on how to adjust European policies and policy instruments.
The GCRF Climate Change and Urban Violence Global Engagement Network (CCUVN) aims to promote new understanding and learning about the interactions and linkages between climate change and urban violence in the Global South, with a focus on non-conflict violence. Comprising of researchers and practitioners working across multiple geographies – including South America, sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and the UK – the Network is a pioneering initiative in examining the interface between urban violence and climate change research and practice.
The literature on environmental peacemaking suggests that adverse environmental changes bear the potential to stimulate cooperative interactions between hostile parties in order to cope with these changes more efficiently. Such interactions, in turn, can pave the way for further cooperation and eventual reconciliation. The project tests the empirical validity of this theoretical approach. More specifically, I will focus on the impact of international freshwater treaties and transboundary conservation areas on reconciliatiation between states in conflict. The main methodes used are qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) and desk-based case studies.
