Adrian Ghilardi

• PhD
• Professor (Associate) at National Autonomous University of Mexico

Deforestation is a major threat to the sustainability of natural resources. Thus, adequate estimates of deforestation are crucial for evaluating how sustainable programs are implemented. Still, there is controversy in estimating deforestation, as different estimates often produce contrasting or even conflicting results. It is known that variation i...

In this study we analyze how the spatial resolution of three satellite images affects estimates of fuelwood availability in a region located in Southern India. For this purpose, we rely on satellite imagery, ground-truthing through GNSS Data Logger, and data from productivity value records. Preliminary findings suggest that higher-resolution satell...

Agricultural expansion and intensification are major drivers of global biodiversity loss, endangering natural habitats and ecosystem functions, such as pollination. In this study, we analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of avocado frontier expansion and intensification from 2011 to 2019 and assess their effects on landscape connectivity, focusing on...

ossil fuels have been the primary energy source for centuries, but their extensive use has led to significant greenhouse gas emissions, contributing to global warming. Recent studies have established a direct link between these emissions and rising global temperatures. Various alternatives have been proposed to combat this, with sustainable and ren...

Bees play a pivotal role as pollinators in crops essential for human consumption. However, the global decline in bee populations poses a significant threat to pollination services and food security worldwide. The loss and degradation of habitats due to land use change are primary factors contributing to bee declines, particularly in tropical forest...

Bees play a pivotal role as pollinators in crops crucial for human consumption. However, the global decline in bee populations poses a significant threat to pollination services and food security worldwide. The loss and fragmentation of habitats due to land-use change are primary factors contributing to bee declines, particularly in tropical forest...

The COVID-19 pandemic has strongly impacted the vast majority of countries in the world. As of today (April 12th, 2023), more than 762 million confirmed cases and nearly 6.9 million deaths are considered widely underestimated. During a pandemic, detecting clusters of patients is crucial to allocate resources and aiding decision-making better as eme...

En este documento se presentan las estimaciones del potencial técnico de la energía que se puede obtener en El Salvador a través de ciertos tipos de biomasa. Los potenciales se estimaron utilizando la plataforma geoespacial para la evaluación del potencial energético de los recursos biomásicos de los países del Sistema de la Integración Centroameri...

The rapid expansion of avocado cultivation in Michoacán, Mexico, is one of the drivers of deforestation. We assessed the degree of fragmentation and functional connectivity of the remaining temperate forest within the Avocado Belt and prioritized patches that contribute the most to connectivity using a network-based approach and modelling different...

Honey bee decline is currently one of the world's most serious environmental issues, and scientists, governments, and producers have generated interest in understanding its causes and consequences in honey production and food supply. Mexico is one of the world’s top honey producers, however, the honey bee population's status has not been documented...

La pandemia de COVID-19 es una de las manifestaciones más notorias de los procesos globales que están afectando a la humanidad. Los efectos de las actividades antropogénicas y los cambios climáticos, demográficos y tecnológicos han modificado los patrones de riesgo de las enfermedades infecciosas en las últimas décadas. Estas enfermedades han apare...

La pandemia de COVID-19 es una de las manifestaciones más notorias de los procesos globales que están afectando a la humanidad. Los efectos de las actividades antropogénicas y los cambios climáticos, demográficos y tecnológicos han modificado los patrones de riesgo de las enfermedades infecciosas en las últimas décadas. Estas enfermedades han apare...

The synthesis of comprehensive databases on the identity and distributions of alien organisms is a critical step to developing informed invasion management plans and identifying areas that are datadeficient. Here, we assembled all available records of alien ant distributions for Mexico, based on the literature, databases and unpublished data for a...

El aprovechamiento de la biomasa con fines energéticos es una alternativa atractiva para reducir la dependencia de los combustibles fósiles y su impacto ambiental. En este sentido, la ubicación geográfica de los sitios de producción y consumo de biomasa, su logística, así como la planificación de la cadena productiva, son factores indispensables pa...

We evaluated the deforestation of the Lacandona region harmonizing concepts and methodologies. An international (FAO definition), governmental (national definition), and regional definition of deforestation with applications at different scales were analyzed and harmonized with two classification methods (likelihood and spectral angle mapper (SAM))...

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) impacts local and regional climates through various biogeophysical processes. Accurate representation of land surface parameters in land surface models (LSMs) is essential to accurately predict these LULCC-induced climate signals. In this work, we test the applicability of the default Noah, Noah-MP, and Commun...

The synthesis of comprehensive databases on the identity and distributions of alien organisms is a critical step to developing informed invasion management plans and identifying areas that are data-deficient. Here, we assembled all available records of alien ant distributions for Mexico, based on the literature, databases and unpublished data for a...

To respond to growing interest in the use of solid biomass as a renewable source, an integrated web-based spatial platform was developed to help in decision-making for bioenergy planning (Biowep) (https://www.wegp.unam.mx/cemie/en). This paper presents this free, user-friendly tool, which allows for the estimation of biomass potential and energy de...

Despite global progress towards improving energy access, major challenges remain for closing the energy access gap between ultra-poor and better off households, and for reaching ultra-poor and last mile populations. Using data from Malawi, we explore the energy access gap between ultra-poor (N = 900) and better-off households (N = 2666) from the sa...

There is currently no consensual definition of deforestation. Given its importance in several research topics ranging from biodiversity to climate change, conservation, restoration, and emerging diseases as well as in comparative studies, it is necessary to provide an integrated framework towards a harmonized definition of deforestation. Here, we a...

Forest degradation affects forest structure, composition and diversity, carbon stocks, functionality and ecosystem processes. It is known to contribute significantly to global carbon emissions, but there is uncertainty about the relative size of these emissions. This is largely because while deforestation, or long-term forest clearance, has been su...

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) impacts local and regional climates through various biogeophysical processes. Accurate representation of land surface parameters in land surface models (LSMs) is essential to accurately predict these LULCC-induced climate signals. In this work, we test the applicability of the default Noah, Noah-MP, and CLM LS...

The first COVID-19 case in Mexico was confirmed on 26 February 2020 and by May 3 the number of registered cases had risen to 30,927. However the rate of transmission varied greatly from city to city. We used data on temperature, humidity and ultraviolet radiation (UV) from 45 cities all over the country to explore whether there was an association b...

It is still a major challenge to select appropriate variables from remote sensing sensors, which implicates finding reliable selection methods that can maximize the performance of chosen variables in regression models. In this study, we compare the performance of stepwise variable selection based on Akaike information criterion and an approach that...

This article presents an historical account of patterns of household fuelwood use in Mexico from 1960 until the present. The results of scenarios outlining the likely evolution of future fuelwood use according to different socio-demog raphic and technological variables are offered up to 2030 along with the expected environmental impacts. Mexico is...

Current biodiversity loss is mostly caused by anthropogenic habitat loss and fragmentation, climate change, and resource exploitation. Measuring the balance of species loss and gain in remaining fragmented landscapes throughout time entails a central research challenge. We resurveyed in 2013 plant species richness in the same plots of a previous sa...

Proportion of plant species gained after a decade. Proportion of (a) gained woody and non-woody species and of (b) gained plant species in edge and interior after a decade. The bottom of each box is the 25th percentile and the top is the 75th percentile, horizontal lines correspond to the median, and whiskers indicate maximum observed values plus +...

List of sampled plant species. List of plant species sampled across 19 and 18 forest fragments in 2003 and 2013, respectively. The presence of each plant species is denoted with 1 and the absence with 0. Total number of species is given at the end. (DOCX)

This study examines the expected mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHG) and black carbon emissions associated with the transition from traditional biomass to clean fuels and clean woodburning cookstoves (CCS) in the Mexican residential sector for the period 2014-2030. We developed a spatial-explicit model at a county level to understand the GHG trade...

We applied annual Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) product Vegetation Continuous Fields (VCF) data for the detection of forest cover change (FCC) in Mexico over the period 2000–2010. We excluded the pixels with uncertain information and applied a moving average and low-pass filter to smooth the multi-temporal data to reduce the...

Woodfuels constitute nearly 80% of Haiti's primary energy supply. Forests are severely degraded and the nation has long been considered an archetypal case of woodfuel-driven deforestation. However, there is little empirical evidence that woodfuel demand directly contributes to deforestation, but may contribute to degradation. We use MoFuSS (Modelin...

Mexican oak forests (genus Quercus ) are frequently used for traditional charcoal production. Appropriate management programs are needed to ensure their long-term use, while conserving the biodiversity and ecosystem services, and associated benefits. A key variable needed to design these programs is the spatial distribution of standing woody biomas...

The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals encourage a transition to 'affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all'. To be successful, the transition requires billions of people to adopt cleaner, more efficient cooking technologies that contribute to sustainability through multiple pathways: improved air quality, reduced emiss...

Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) is an international policy initiative which is designed to incentivize tropical countries to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. But what happens if a country is already a forest sink, absorbing more carbon than it is emitting? This phenomenon has bee...

Elucidating the factors determining plant distribution is still on discussion. It has been stated that the distribution is mostly determined by environmental factors, but the evidence on whether this or other processes are the determinants remains inconclusive. In the present study, we hypothesized that oak species differ in their distribution, whi...

Charcoal is among the most important domestic fuels in many countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Its production has been conventionally considered as an agricultural off-season activity to supplement household income and cope with harvest failures. This study used primary data at the household level from an important charcoal supplying dryland re...

Anthropogenic land-cover change, e.g. deforestation and forest degradation cause carbon emissions. To estimate deforestation and forest degradation, it is important to have reliable data on forest cover. In this analysis, we evaluated annual MODIS Percent Tree Cover (PTC) data for the detection of forest change including deforestation, forest degra...

Anthropogenic land-cover change, e.g. deforestation and forest degradation cause carbon emissions. To estimate deforestation and forest degradation, it is important to have reliable data on forest cover. In this analysis, we evaluated annual MODIS Percent Tree Cover (PTC) data for the detection of forest change including deforestation, forest degra...

This study assesses whether MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields percent tree cover (PTC) data can detect deforestation and forest degradation. To assess the usefulness of PTC for detecting deforestation, we used a data set consisting of eight forest and seven non-forest categories. To evaluate forest degradation, we used data from two temperate fore...

Approximately 40% of the global population relies on traditional bioenergy, accounting for 9% of global energy use and 55% of global wood harvest. However, knowledge about the environmental impacts of traditional bioenergy is fragmented. This review addresses several persistent questions and summarizes recent research on land cover change (LCC) and...

The poster presents a spatially explicit pan-tropical analysis of woodfuel-related greenhouse-gas emissions. Model and results are presented at pan-tropical level (tier 1) and at national level for Kenya.

Thematic maps are widely used in land management, however few studies assess its accuracy using robust methods. Accuracy assessment is usually performed by comparing the map category with the category assigned to reference sites through the analysis of high-resolution images or fieldwork. These reference sites are selected based on sampling and the...

Appropriately implemented bioenergy could be a renewable source of energy contributing to fossil fuels substitution and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in Mexico. This work explores eleven bioenergy options with environmentally sustainable biomass production potential. Mature and widely used technologies for biomass transformation are selected. Mit...

Over half of all wood harvested worldwide is used as fuel, supplying ~9% of global primary energy. By depleting stocks of woody biomass, unsustainable harvesting can contribute to forest degradation, deforestation and climate change. However, past efforts to quantify woodfuel sustainability failed to provide credible results. We present a spatially...

Charcoal is an important source of energy worldwide and in Mexico it is used primarily by the residential and food vending sectors. Significant efforts have emerged in Mexico to calculate charcoal consumption and determine its contribution, not only in terms of energy demand, but also in order to identify strategies for its sustainable production....

The difficulty of defining and quantifying forest degradation is a major constraint in the implementation of the international mitigation mechanism Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+). Our aim is to develop an operational framework for defining and quantifying forest degradation at a local level for early REDD+ proje...

The MODIS vegetation continuous fields (VCF) product has a percent tree cover layer; hence it could potentially be used to detect hotspots of deforestation and forest degradation, if data accuracy is high. This paper assesses the accuracy of the VCF percent tree cover layer by comparing it with land cover maps in two areas in Mexico. Specifically,...

Although land use/cover maps are widely used to support management and environmental policies, only some studies have reported their accuracy using sound and complete assessments. Thematic map accuracy assessment is typically achieved by comparing reference sites labeled with the “ground-truth” category to the ones depicted in the land use/cover ma...

Power utility companies in the United Kingdom are using imported wood pellets from the southern region of the United States for electricity generation to meet the legally binding mandate of sourcing 15% of the nation's total energy consumption from renewable sources by 2020. This study ascertains relative savings in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions f...

Fuelwood and charcoal are fundamental fuel sources for the residential sector in Mexico. A Business-As-Usual (BAU) projection by means of a spatially-explicit approach was developed to assess national fuelwood and charcoal consumption for the period 2010 to 2030. The model was calibrated for 1990–2000 and 2010 projections were validated against off...

This report examines the impacts of wood extraction for energy purposes on land cover and land use change. We identify regions likely to suffer from overharvesting of woodfuel to supply woodfuel demand that orignates from both local communities and distant urban centers. The spatially explicit datasets that were developed for this analysis also pro...

This paper analyzes deforestation hotspots in Mexico using MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields (VCF) data, which contains four science data sets. The first science data set is percent tree cover, which gives an estimate of the percentage of crown cover in each pixel; the remaining three science data sets can be used to assess the reliability of the...

We present a cost-effective statistical approach that integrates satellite imagery, environmental variables and ground inventory data to map the spatial distribution of aboveground woody biomass suitable for charcoal making. The study was conducted in the Cuitzeo basin located in central Mexico, where charcoal is produced from oak forests covering...

The production, use and trade of charcoal for domestic cooking and heating are characterized by contradictions, stereotyping, and misconceptions. Partial information, over-generalizations, and the tendency to consolidate charcoal with other biomass fuels have contributed to gross misrepresentation of charcoal in terms of its actual impact on forest...

We used SWOT-AHP (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats–analytical hierarchy process) technique to measure perceptions of four stakeholder groups: employees, local promoters, community leaders and end-users, about a nontraditional cookstove (NTCS) in Honduras. These stakeholder groups are part of an ongoing NTCS dissemination project led...

Sustainable production systems for woodfuels in developing countries require basic information on tree productivity, and particularly on their coppicing productivity under current forms of management. We report biomass equations and sprouting productivity of two oak species (Quercus castanea and Q. laeta) subject to traditional forms of woodfuel ha...

Between one-third and one-half of the world’s population rely on wood and other biomass fuels to meet their energy needs. Table 18.1 shows an estimate of the number of people relying on biomass fuels in 2004 from the International Energy Agency (IEA 2006 ). The use of wood as a household fuel is overwhelmingly concentrated in less developed countri...

The paper reviews a number of challenges associated with reducing degradation and its related emissions through national approaches to REDD+ under UNFCCC policy. It proposes that in many countries, it may in the short run be easier to deal with the kinds of degradation that result from locally driven community over-exploitation of forest for liveli...

One of the most compelling reasons for pursuing low-carbon development is that the potential impacts of climate change are predicted to be severe, for both industrial and developing countries, and that reducing greenhouse gas emissions can reduce the risk of the most catastrophic impacts. The challenge of reducing emissions is sobering: leading sci...

When fuelwood is harvested at a rate exceeding natural growth and inefficient conversion technologies are used, negative environmental and socio-economic impacts, such as fuelwood shortages, natural forests degradation and net GHG emissions arise. In this study, we argue that analyzing fuelwood supply/demand spatial patterns require multi-scale app...

In spite of growing interest, a principal obstacle to wider inclusion of improved cookstove projects in carbon trading schemes has been the lack of accountability in estimating CO 2-equivalent (CO 2-e) savings. To demonstrate that robust estimates of CO 2-e savings can be obtained at reasonable cost, an integrated approach of community-based subsam...

A WISDOM analysis was conducted in Mexico in order to: (1) identify fuelwood (FW) hot spots in terms of residential FW use and availability of FW resources for the year 2000, and (2) estimate net CO2 emissions from the non-renewable use of FW. WISDOM (woodfuel integrated supply/demand overview mapping) is a spatially explicit method, based on geogr...

In this paper, it is argued that adequately assessing the implications of the current patterns of woodfuel production and use, and the sustainable potentials of woodfuel resources, requires a holistic view and a better knowledge of the spatial patterns of woodfuel supply and demand. There is a need to conduct multi-scale spatially explicit analyses...