Adam Szirmai

• PhD
• Professor at United Nations University (UNU)

This paper studies periods of prolonged contractions in output per capita in a sample of 145 countries from 1950 to 2014. Economic slumps are defined as abrupt interruptions of a period of growth by several regime switches. Slumps start with a sharp contraction along with a trend break, which is followed by another switch when growth stabilizes aga...

This paper proposes a new framework for poverty accounting, that is, the decomposition of poverty into its proximate components. Using aggregated household surveys from 124 countries, we estimate the potential impacts of income growth and redistribution on poverty reduction, as well as their actual contributions to poverty reduction over the period...

Using a new data set on regional inputs and outputs, this paper focuses on the role of interregional technology spillovers in the process of industrial growth in Chinese regions from 1990 till 2005. Inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) increase rapidly between 1990 and 1998 and after 2001. Domestic capital investment increases even more rapid...

website: http://www.merit.unu.edu Maastricht Graduate School of Governance (MGSoG) email: info-governance@maastrichtuniversity.nl | website: http://www.maastrichtuniversity.nl/governance Boschstraat 24, 6211 AX Maastricht,

This paper analyzes periods of economic stagnation in a panel of countries. We test whether stagnation can be predicted by institutional characteristics and political shocks and compare the impacts of such variables with those of traditional macroeconomic variables. We examine the determinants of stagnation episodes using dynamic linear and nonline...

Over the last half-century, per capita income in Latin America has stagnated relative to the United States and other benchmarking countries. Growth accounting techniques reveal that slow productivity growth is at the root of this weak performance, calling for detailed analyses and appropriate and timely policy responses. In addition to macroeconomi...

This chapter summarizes the main results of the book, presenting new evidence on the factors preventing faster productivity growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. Innovation significantly influences the productivity of firms, although to different degrees depending on their characteristics. The evidence confirms that the impact of innovation on...

This paper analyses broad changes in the global structure of production in the last half century. The analysis is carried out along two dimensions: sectoral and geographical. A novelty of the paper is the use of sector-specific PPPs to estimate the structure of production in current PPP international dollars. The analysis is based on a comprehensiv...

This book provides an analysis of the role of structural change and industrialisation in the economic development of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The emergence of the BRICS reflects an ongoing change in the international economic order. The BRICS now account for a substantial part of global GDP, global manufacturing value added an...

Why are poor countries poor and rich countries rich? How are wealth and poverty related to changes in health, life expectancy, education, population growth and politics? This introduction explores the dynamics of socio-economic development and stagnation in developing countries. http://www.cambridge.org/9781107624498

This paper analyzes periods of economic stagnation in a panel of countries. We test whether stagnation can be predicted by institutional characteristics and political shocks, and compare the impacts of such variables with those of traditional macroeconomic variables. We examine the determinants of stagnation episodes using dynamic linear and non-li...

This book highlights the continuous relevance of industrial development and industrial policy in countries' development strategies. In the early post-war years it seemed that the recipe for development was a relatively straightforward one. Countries had to achieve structural change, shifting resources from agriculture to industry. Success in manufa...

Over the last two centuries, the experiences of the first wave of industrialized countries in Europe and the US, and the more recent experiences of the East Asian Tigers, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, China, India, and Vietnam, have illustrated the transformative nature of industrialization. There are reasons to believe that industrialization will...

It is widely believed that the acceleration of growth since reforms began in 1978 has increased regional disparities in China. This paper examines whether this is the case for GDP per capita, labour productivity and technical efficiency in industry in 30 regions from 1978 to 2005. The unexpected conclusion is that over the whole period, there has b...

The structural transformation of a traditional economy dominated by primary activities into a modern economy where high-productivity activities in manufacturing assume an important role remains a defining feature of economic development. The challenges to attain such structural transformation may be more daunting than in the past. Based on a recent...

This paper assesses whether or not manufacturing plays an important role in the process of economic growth, the creation of new employment and the alleviation of poverty in the least developed economies and in emerging middle-income countries. Based on a detailed review of relevant literature, the paper concludes that manufacturing continues to be...

This paper investigates the effects of connectivity charges (communication costs) on bilateral exports in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). Data from 19 exporter countries was used together with communication costs data in a gravity model of trade setup. The export data derive from the IMF Direction of Trade and the COMTRADE databases, while the communicat...

In this study, we examine the impact of social capital on entrepreneurial innovativeness in an African context. Social capital refers to resources that are embedded in a durable network of relationships. This article focuses specifically on the structure of networks. There are two main views on the relation between network structure and entrepreneu...

For a better understanding of development, we are interested in why in the long run some countries or societies forge ahead, while others stagnate or fall behind. We are especially interested in the conditions under which growth and catch- up can be realised in developing countries. In section 1 of this paper, we develop a framework of proximate, i...

This paper analyzes periods of economic stagnation in a panel of countries. We test if stagnation episodes are predicted by institutional factors and external/internal shocks, as is implied by recent theoretical contributions, and compare the impacts of these variables with those of traditional macroeconomic variables. We examine the determinants o...

The structural transformation of a traditional economy dominated by primary activities into a modern economy where high-productivity activities in manufacturing assume an important role remains a defining feature of economic development. The challenges to attain such structural transformation may be more daunting than in the past. Based on a recent...

This paper presents new estimates of capital inputs in the Chinese economy. Estimates are made for the total economy (1953–2007), for the industrial sector (1953–2007) and for manufacturing (1985–2007). The capital input estimates for industry and manufacturing are also broken down by thirty regions. The paper makes a systematic attempt to apply SN...

This paper provides an analytic review of selected contributions to the study of institutions and economic growth. We review the contributions to the study of institutional determinants of long-run growth by Engerman and Sokoloff, and Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson. We discuss the work of Rodrik and others who focus on institutions and institutiona...

It has been a little more than sixty years since the foundations of India's national system of innovation were laid, and it is time to look back and examine what form it has taken. What are the achievements of the Indian system of innovation? How has it performed in terms of building industrial capabilities and promoting development? Using the 'Nat...

This study has been prepared within a joint project of UNU-MERIT, UNU-WIDER, and UNIDO on Pathways to Industrialization in the 21st Century: New Challenges and Emerging Paradigms. UNU-WIDER gratefully acknowledges the financial contributions to the project by the Finnish Ministry for Foreign Affairs, and the financial contributions to the research...

This chapter introduces the book by providing a brief background on what is known about the impact and determinants of innovation and the importance of policy and the institutional environment for fostering innovation. It also provides a summary of the key contributions of the various chapters, pointing out that these provide perspectives on three...

This article focuses on the measurement of embodied technological change. It develops the core-machinery approach to capital measurement, which is based on an engineering perspective on technological change. Using technical characteristics of different types of machinery, technical progress in the capital stock can be decomposed into incremental in...

In this study we analyze the micro-dynamics of catch-up in Indonesian paper manufacturing, using a two-country plant-level dataset for the period 1975-97. We apply data envelopment analysis (DEA) to measure to what extent Indonesian paper mills are catching up with Finnish mills in terms of technical efficiency. Three questions are addressed: What...

The difference in the development experiences between the most developed countries and the least developed countries of today is vast. Luxembourg’s per capita income is 200 times larger than Liberia’s. Even within the developing world, growth is very unequal. East Asia and parts of Latin America are growing at impressive rates, while many other coun...

Entrepreneurship and innovation are two of the most pervasive concepts of our times, yet there are still gaps in our understanding of the interactions between entrepreneurship and innovation, particularly in developing countries. This book is an attempt to fill this gap. It focuses on the entrepreneurship-innovation-development nexus, drawing heavi...

This volume presents an analysis of the long-run process of industrialization in Tanzania since independence. It examines what lessons can be derived from the Tanzanian experience. Tanzania has many characteristics in common with other African economies--an initial belief in the efficacy of state intervention in the economy, followed by a turn to m...

Since the middle of the eighteenth century, manufacturing has functioned as the main engine of economic growth and development. However, in recent research, questions have been raised concerning the continued importance of the manufacturing sector for economic development. This paper reexamines the role of manufacturing as a driver of growth in dev...

How does innovation impact on development? How, and under what conditions, do entrepreneurs in developing countries innovate? And what can be done to support innovation by entrepreneurs in developing countries? This policy brief addresses these questions and explains the relationship between entrepreneurship, innovation and development. Policy less...

Entrepreneurship scholars have recently started to pay attention to the interplay of human and social capital (Anderson and Miller 2003; Bosma et al. 2004; Brüderl and Preisendörfer 1998; Davidson and Honig 2003; Mosey and Wright 2007; Renzulli et al. 2000). Human capital refers to the knowledge and skills that economic actors have acquired, which...

In this paper we analyse the role of sectoral innovation systems in the emergence and catch-up of aerospace industries in latecomer economies. We argue that the aerospace sector is characterized by a process of interrupted innovation. Competitive pressures and the cyclical nature of the industry not only require shifts in the direction of innovatio...

Most rural households in Pakistan remain in a state of energy poverty. They use a variety of non-conventional energy sources, including traditional biomass (firewood, animal and plant waste), kerosene and even LPG. A specially designed Energy Poverty Survey (EPS), carried out in rural Pakistan from December 2008 till January 2009, showed that rural...

This paper analyses the historical performance of the South African manufacturing sector in an international perspective. After a brief overview of the industrialisation process of South Africa during the 20th century, a binary comparison of manufacturing output and productivity between South Africa and the US is presented. The industry-of-origin a...

This study has been prepared within the UNU-WIDER project on Entrepreneurship and Development (Promoting Entrepreneurial Capacity), directed by Wim Naudé. UNU-WIDER gratefully acknowledges the financial contributions to the project by the Finnish Ministry for Foreign Affairs, and the financial contributions to the research programme by the governme...

This paper examines the emergence of manufacturing in developing countries in the period 1950–2005. It presents new data on structural change in a sample of 67 developing countries and 21 advanced economies. The paper examines the theoretical and empirical evidence for the proposition that industrialisation acts as an engine of growth in developing...

This article focuses on the contribution of structural change to aggregate manufacturing and industrial productivity in China. Using shift-share techniques, this article examines three types of structural change: changes in the sectoral structure of production, changes in the ownership structure, and changes in the regional structure of production....

This paper examines the importance of local knowledge spillovers for the innovative and export performance of firms in a developing country context. Theoretical and empirical studies in advanced economies underline the significance of local knowledge spillovers for innovation. However, not much is known about whether local knowledge spillovers work...

Since 1950, there has been considerable diversity in developing country experiences. Some countries and some regions have experienced rapid growth and catch up, others have fallen behind. At a global level there is an increasing inequality of per capita incomes. However, within the framework of increasing inequality, some countries have experienced...

This paper examines the importance of local knowledge spillovers for the innovative and economic performance of firms in a developing country context. Theoretical and empirical studies in advanced economies underline the significance of local knowledge spillovers for innovation. However, not much is known about whether local knowledge spillovers wo...

The debate on software intellectual property rights (IPRs) has not only highlighted fundamental issues regarding the scheme of protection that software enjoys, it has also pointed out major gaps in the representation of computer programs as economic goods. In this respect, various interpretations of software propose a limited outlook by referring o...

The successful industrialization and catch up of countries in the East Asian region gave rise to an important debate concerning the role played by technological learning and knowledge creation. This paper seeks to examine this issue for Indonesia, a second-tier newly industrializing country. It focuses on the relative importance of learning from im...

In this study we analyze the micro-dynamics of catch up in Indonesian paper manufacturing using a two-country plant-level data set for the period 1975-1997. The Indonesian paper industry is selected as a case-study because it experienced spectacular investment and growth. It became one of the world's largest exporters and producers of paper in the...

In this paper, we analyze the diffusion and adoption of paper making machinery in the Indonesian pulp and paper industry, from 1923 till 2000. We develop a machine level index of technological sophistication (mach), which measures the technological distance of each paper machine to the world technological frontier. The data reveal a pattern of rapi...

In this paper the dynamics of technological change and technical efficiency in the Indonesian pulp and paper industry are analysed. The industry is characterised by rapid growth of output and capacity, with some mills investing heavily in state-of-the-art machinery after 1984. Using stochastic frontier analysis, we distinguish between technological...

Although there is a substantial body of literature on the importance of technological capabilities for economic development, the exact relationships between technological efforts, technological capabilities and economic performance at micro-level still remain unclear. How do technological efforts affect technological capabilities? To what extent an...

This paper investigates empirically the importance of technological catch-up in explaining productivity growth in a sample of countries since the 1960s. New proxies for a country's absorptive capability--based on data for students studying abroad, telecommunications and publications--are tested in regression models. The results indicate that absorp...

This paper uses the detailed information in the 1995 Census of Industrial Production as a benchmark for analysing the coverage, concepts and consistency of published statistical series. On the basis of the analysis, the paper proposes a series of adjustments which result in more consistent long-run series of labour productivity for 21 manufacturing...

In this paper we provide a first attempt to analyse catch up at the micro level, not possible in conventional macro-studies. The Indonesian pulp and paper industry has been selected as case-study because it experienced spectacular investment and growth, becoming one of the world’s largest exporters and producers of paper in the world. We apply stoc...

Why are poor countries poor and rich countries rich? How are wealth and poverty related to changes in nutrition, health, life expectancy, education, population growth and politics? This modern, non-technical introduction to development studies explores the dynamics of socio-economic development and stagnation in developing countries. Taking a quant...

This article focuses on the measurement of embodied technological change. It develops the core-machinery approach to capital measurement, which is based on an engineering perspective on technological change. Using technical characteristics of different types of machinery, technical progress in the capital stock can be decomposed into incremental in...

By means of a ‘Cycle of Matter’ model a comprehensive scrap cycle can be estimated for a region, country or continent. The model covers scrap flows between the three main actors defining the cycle, i.e. scrap users, scrap generators and scrap dealers. The ‘Cycle of Matter’ incorporates the generation and use of three types of scrap, i.e. home scrap...

This paper presents an analysis of Zambian manufacturing performance since 1964. It presents new estimates of labour productivity growth and total factor productivity growth. After a period of growth and labour productivity improvement till 1974, Zambian manufacturing suffered from increasing inefficiencies in an import substituting and interventio...

Throughout the past decades the economic and industrial performance of less developed countries in sub-Saharan Africa can be captured in three words: boom, crisis and adjustment (Little et al., 1993). The sequence of rapid growth, followed by crisis and an ongoing process of structural adjustment, has received a great deal of attention, both from n...

Tanzania is a late late-comer to the process of industrialization: the first steps towards industrialization were taken after World War II. These took the form of processing for export markets. The expansion of manufacturing activities for the local market started in the mid-1950s. This late start is illustrated by the modest numbers of manufacturi...

In the context of late industrialization the effective transfer and adaptation of technology is of great importance for economic development. International technology transfer is not a costless process, but requires considerable technological effort and investments in the development of technological capabilities (Lall, 1999).

Using an industry of origin methodology, USA–China average unit value ratios (UVR) for 1985 are derived from the Chinese and US censuses of production. Applying these UVRs to convert Chinese manufacturing GDP into US dollars results in a comparative labour productivity of 6.2 percent of the US level in 1985. This is twice as high as the figure foun...

This paper examines the role of structural change in explaining aggregate productivity growth in the manufacturing sector of four Asian countries over the period 1963–1993. The conventional shift-share analysis is used to measure the impact of shifts in both labour and capital inputs. The results do not support the structural-bonus hypothesis, whic...

This paper focuses on comparative productivity performance in manufacturing in five major Asian economies: China, India, Indonesia, Korea and Taiwan. Using conversion factors derived according to an industry of origin approach, comparisons of real labour productivity are made, with the world productivity leader, the USA, as reference country in a s...

This paper provides industry-of-origin comparative estimates of real output and labour productivity in the Indonesian and Australian manufacturing sectors. It makes binary comparisons for the benchmark year 1987, and extrapolates the 1987 benchmark backward and forward using national time series, to derive comparisons for the years 1975-90. Express...

The growth experience in manufacturing in South and East Asian economies is well documented. Less is known about absolute levels of economic performance. This paper presents a star comparison of six Asian economies (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan) and the USA, the world productivity leader in manufacturing. The comparison of...

This study represents the second in a series of real output and productivity level comparisons between Australia and its main trading partners in the Asia-Pacific region. It provides the first available comparative estimates of manufacturing sector real output and productivity levels in Indonesia and Australia. Indonesia's manufacturing productivit...

This paper presents results of an investigation into trends and levels in real output and labour productivity in Chinese manufacturing.

This article presents estimates of purchasing power parities, real output and labour productivity in medium and large scale manufacturing in a binary comparison between Indonesia and the USA in the benchmark year 1987, It applies an industry of origin approach, comparing product unit values from the censuses of both countries. The 1987 PPP for manu...

This chapter presents some results of a larger study on attitudes toward income inequality in The Netherlands. This study is based on a national survey held in The Netherlands in October 1980.1 One of its conclusions was that, in 1980, members of the economically active population were characterized by highly egalitarian attitudes with regard to th...

This study presents binary comparisons of real output and labour productivity in manufacturing in Japan, South Korea and the U.S.A. in 1975, made according to an "industry of origin approach." The 1975 benchmark comparisons have been updated to 1985. Value added per hour worked in Japanese manufacturing increased from 54 percent of the U.S. level i...

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Thèse Sciences sociales, Groningue, 1986.

This paper was prepared for the Angus Maddison Memorial conference, held in November 2010 at the International Institute of Social History in Amsterdam. The paper reflects on Angus Maddison's contributions to development economics. It focuses on the following issues: 1. quantification in development economics and the framework of proximate and ulti...