Adam Blake

Bournemouth University | BU · School of Tourism

In a context in which the tourism industry is jeopardised by the COVID-19 pandemic, and potentially by other pandemics in the future, the capacity to produce accurate forecasts is crucial to stakeholders and policy-makers. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery of tourism demand for 2021 in 20 destinations worldwide. An original scenario-base...

Bangladesh has the highest overall ranking in Asia for gender equality (World Economic Forum 2017). The tourism industry is frequently promoted as a global driver for the economic empowerment of women (UNWTO 2010). The aim of this research is to examine if a gender gap exists in the domestic tourism industry in Cox's Bazaar. Bangladesh has a large...

Purpose This study aims to recommend initiatives that can be adopted to overcome overtourism in host destinations of mega sport events. Design/methodology/approach This study adopts a qualitative research design that involves 20 semi-structured interviews with key informant stakeholders of the London 2012 Olympic Games. An exploratory case study a...

Purpose Most existing studies on the impact of tourism on economic growth adopt an econometric approach that is insufficient to confirm that tourism actually leads to economic growth. Moreover, it cannot explain the causalities of different variables. Taking Mauritius as an example, this study aims to use the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium...

Models of event leveraging identify strategies that organisers can use to increase the benefits that sport events bring to host destinations. Among these, leveraging tourism benefits during the event is a frequently cited strategy by which organisers can bring more money into a destination. To date, little work has been conducted on leveraging imme...

This study employs a qualitative research approach where focus groups (n = 11) with key stakeholders were used to understand how tourism investors view the concept of well-being in relation to tourism and the potential to use it as a tourism product resource. Findings validated by a wider group (n = 50) exposed the barriers and enablers of implemen...

For the purposes of this study, we will construct a static monopolistically‐competitive computable general equilibrium model to quantify the endogenous productivity spillovers from foreign and domestic firms, using the Chinese economy as a case study. Our simulation results indicate: (i) that the net spillover effects are positive in terms of natio...

This study calculated for the first time the sector’s value to the UK economy. It built the UK Meetings Tourism Satellite Account to assess the direct contribution and used input and output modelling to evaluate the overall economic impact on GDP, wages, taxes and industry output. This Impact Study presented a milestone in the history of the UK mee...

This paper develops a new method for incorporating uncertainty within a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The method involves incorporating uncertainty into the model by formulating different states of the world or paths that the economy may take. The risk then is that on one or more of the paths, there may be an external demand shock, fo...

Major sports events are used increasingly by policy-makers to stimulate economic development. This has resulted in a growth of academic interest in ways of analysing their contribution. Following a review of the literature on the contrasting approaches that have been used, this paper assesses the economic impact of the Beijing Olympics, in particul...

Tax incentives have been adopted worldwide to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and its superior technology. However whether tax incentives can promote FDI productivity spillovers remains unknown. We develop a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of China to explore it. The results suggest that abolishing differential tax system...

International inbound tourism to China has grown phenomenally since 1980 and the hosting of the Olympics in 2008 was an important milestone. This paper takes the first step in applying computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling to forecasting the economic contribution of tourism generated by the Beijing Olympics. CGE modelling has been widely a...

Tourism is vulnerable to externalities such as natural disasters and man-made crises. The current global economic slowdown has adversely affected global tourism. While headline figures show that international tourism is suffering as a consequence of this economic crisis, domestic tourism is larger in many countries and impacts through this market c...

This study compares results from tourism demand models where tourism expenditures are modeled separately by purpose of visit and nationality pairings against results from models for which expenditure is treated on a more aggregate basis. A structural time-series model is estimated for each case, with data for inbound tourism demand to the United Ki...

Led the qualitative work for the Scottish Government wildlife project: four separate research projects and reports plus presentations to the Scottish Government. Curtin, S. C. (2010) Wildlife Tourism in Scotland. Participant Observations: Qualitative Insights into Tourists' Perceptions and Experiences of Wildlife Watching in Scotland. For the Scot...

The cruise industry worldwide has increased rapidly since the beginning of the millennium. Hawaii is no exception to this. Since the 1970s, cruise ships periodically visited the Hawaiian Islands, yet overnight cruising among the islands was rare. From 2001 to 2004, cruise ships sailing to and around Hawaii were solely foreign-flagged ships, includi...

We construct a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to quantify the endogenous productivity spillovers from foreign-invested firms to domestic firms, taking the Chinese economy as a case study. The coefficients of four spillover channels are estimated from econometric analysis. The simulations are conducted under two alternative market...

When considering the economic impact of tourism, it is common to model tourism expenditures in a static model, providing the impact that tourism spending would have if its effects were contained in a single year. This confuses two features; first, that any change in tourism spending has a time dimension and, second, it ignores changes that may occu...

The analysis of the impact of mega events has included frameworks that evaluate different impacts under different criteria, for example, separating impacts according to whether they occur before, during or after the event itself. Analysis of the economic impacts of such events has shown that the distributional effects between the host city and the...

This article presents findings of a comparative study of destination marketing evaluation research in the United Kingdom to identify success factors, highlight best practices, and draw attention to determinants of poor performance in destination marketing campaign activities. Increasing levels of competition between tourism destinations has led to...

We use a firm-level dataset for Chinese manufacturing, to estimate productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) to local firms. The spillover channels considered include inter-firm labour turnover/mobility; vertical input-output linkages; exporting externalities; and horizontal effects. The roles of these channels are dependent on v...

In discussions during the dinner between Chamber directors, other members and guests it became clear that the perception about the workings of Gibraltar's economy, its key economic activities and in particular, Gibraltar´s economic infl uence on Campo de Gibraltar-the Spanish hinterland-was quite different from the reality. The Board was invited to...

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to assess the effects of the Uruguay Round (UR) and CAP reform. Detailed attention is given to the impact of the agricultural components of the UR and of the CAP reform on the agricultural and food-processing sectors of the EU. The CGE model used, while based on the standard Global Trade Analys...

Research has highlighted the possibility that tourism expenditure in developing countries not only provides income for poor households, but also leads to contraction of other exporting industries. By highlighting the linkages between tourism-related industries and the rest of the economy, and through the distributional effects of their income flows...

This paper examines the issue of how tourism affects poverty in the context of its effects on an economy as a whole and on particular sectors within it. A framework for analyzing the channels through which tourism influences different households is developed, and a computable general equilibrium model of the Brazilian economy is used to examine the...

We have constructed a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to capture the endogenous productivity spillover from foreign-invested firms to domestic firms in China. This paper summarizes the main results we have found so far. There are four contributions we have made to the literature. Firstly, we have disaggregated 31 industries into 31*3=93...

Over the next 10 years, Scottish tourism is expected to grow by 50%. One of the keys to that growth is transport which is a sector that is dependent upon oil. This paper considers oil and the global economy and its relationship to Scottish tourism. Consideration is given to the key variables such as oil forecasts, security of supply, cost of produc...

This paper examines the ways in which productivity in tourism businesses can be increased by studying the roles of changes in physical capital, human capital, innovation, and the competitive environment. Comprehensive results are obtained by using questionnaire-based interviews, business survey data analysis, and computable general equilibrium mode...

Information about current and forecast levels of tourism and its contribution to the economy is important for policy making by businesses and governments. Traditional forecasting methods can provide reasonable forecasts in the context of predictable changes. However, forecasting becomes problematic in the context of both predictable changes and les...

We outline a framework for considering uncertainty in estimates of emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) where the objective is to determine least cost (profit foregone) adaptations to reduce emissions at the farm level. Three sources of uncertainty were identified as being associated with GHG emissions: lack of understanding of biological systems,...

This paper focuses on the macro-economic impacts of changes in health provision via its effects on the labour market. The resource allocation issues have been explored in theory, by further developing the Rybczynski theorem and empirically, using a Computable General Equilibrium model for the UK. From the theory, changes in non-health outputs are s...

Tourism plays a major part in the development strategies of both developing and developed countries because of the alleged potential of generating foreign exchange, economic growth and welfare enhancement (Sinclair and Stabler, 1997; Sinclair, 1988). Consequently, in several countries a considerable amount of resources is allocated to further promo...

Applied general equilibrium modelling represents a powerful tool for assessing future likely economic changes due to upcoming or hypothesised policy shocks such as those brought about by EU enlargement. It entails the main advantage of considering the complex simultaneous linkages, interactions and feedback effects between various sectors, institut...

Tourism has become one of the leading economic activities in many small island developing states. Hence, changes in tourism demand can have considerable economic impacts, both at the macroeconomic level and on different sectors within the economy. Measurement of the magnitudes of the impacts has traditionally been undertaken using input-output mode...

Information about the current and forecast levels of tourism and its contribution to the economy is important for policy making by businesses and governments. Traditional forecasting methods can provide reasonable forecasts in the context of predicable changes. However, forecasting becomes problematic in the context of both predictable changes and...

Trade liberalization has long been advocated for standard reasons of increasing competition and welfare. Yet, there is still considerable debate, particularly in developing countries, about the range of effects that result from liberalization and the relative magnitudes of different effects. Such debate stems, in part, from the fact that trade refo...

The foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak significantly reduced tourism expenditures in the UK, as well as affecting the agricultural sector. This paper quantifies the effects of FMD on tourism, agriculture and all other sectors of the UK economy using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the UK economy. The results show that the FMD out...

Policymakers are faced with the predicament of if and how they should respond to an unexpected and sudden downturn in tourism demand. In the past, they have made these decisions in the absence of research into the relative effectiveness of different responses. The downturn in the United States following September 11 is a particularly vivid example...

The issue of whether globalization is beneficial remains controversial, particularly because globalization policies are often examined without consideration of their interactions with key sectors of the economy, notably tourism. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy to examine the effects of globalization...

For sub-Saharan African countries with few evident opportunities to diversify export earnings away from primary commodities, tourism has emerged as an option to contribute to economic growth. This study uses input-output analysis to estimate the economic impact of tourism and assesses its potential contribution for the Tanzanian economy. The result...

This paper presents a series of case studies in the UK food and drink industry, undertaken under the aegis of the UK Government's Foresight Programme, which show the many and varied ways in which firms have been innovative in their use of technology. The sector is characterised with low research and development expenditure but it is apparent that t...

There have been many instances where the tourism industry in one or more countries has suffered an unexpected and sudden downturn in demand. Policy makers are faced with the predicament of if and how they should respond to such crises in the absence of research into the relative effectiveness of different responses. The downturn in tourism demand i...

There is still considerable debate on the issue of trade liberalization in the form of tariff reductions, particularly about its economic benefits and its forms. In contrast to standard assumptions, trade liberalization in developing countries commonly occurs in a context of multiple distortions, notably in the labor market in the form of wage rigi...

This paper evaluates the impact on Uganda of the liberalisation of world trade, especially in agricultural commodities, as proposed in the Uruguay Round, and of unilateral liberalisation of Uganda's own import tariffs. A CGE model of Uganda is used to model the effects of trade liberalisation, taking into account the distribution effects by househo...

In most developing countries endowed with significant tourist attractions, tourism has emerged as a new impetus for economic growth, given its ability to generate foreign exchange and employment. This study uses input-output analysis to estimate the economic impact of tourism and assess whether it is a key sector for the Tanzanian economy. The find...

A tourism-CGE model representative of the Indonesian economy is developed based on modified version of the Indonesian SAM 1993, for analysing the economic effects and distributional implications of globalisation and foreign tourism boom. Two policy changes are simulated to represent partial and full-scale globalisation. The former suggests that it...

This paper shows how research with Tourism Satellite Accounts (TSAs) can be complemented and extended by the use of Tourism Policy and Forecasting (TPF) models. These models integrate information from TSAs into a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework to provide a leading edge technique for modelling the economic impact of tourism...

The economic impact of tourism has long been of interest to academics and policy makers. The effects of tourism taxation are likewise of considerable interest, but have not been comprehensively modelled using applied economic analysis. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model of Spain to analyse both the effects of tourism in Spain an...

In this paper, the impact of removing all Tunisian tariffs on imports from the EU, while maintaining protection on imports from the rest of the world, is evaluated using computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Both competitive and Cournot oligopolistic commodities market structures with and without barriers to entry and exit are considered. It...

This thesis is concerned with computable general equilibrium modelling and evaluation of agricultural policy in a global context. Particular emphasis has been given to the EU's Common Agricultural Policy, reform of which was an important element in the successful conclusion of the Uruguay Round (UR), and which is to be subject to further reforms un...

There have been many instances where the tourism industry in one or more countries has suffered an unexpected and sudden downturn in demand. Policy makers are faced with the predicament of if and how they should respond to such crises in the absence of research into the relative effectiveness of different responses. The downturn in tourism demand i...

Over the next 10 years, Scottish tourism is expected to grow by 50%. One of the keys to that growth is transport which is a sector that is dependent upon oil. This paper considers oil and the global economy and its relationship to Scottish tourism. Consideration is given to the key variables such as oil forecasts, security of supply, cost of produc...

Computable General Equilibrium models of Malta and Cyprus are developed and used to quantify and compare the impact of EU accession on each of these Mediterranean islands. Tourism is particularly important relative to other economic activities in these island nations, and because of this tourism demands are treated explicitly in these models, and t...

This paper presents some preliminary results from a CGE model of the interactions between government-provided health care and the outputs of non-health goods and national welfare in a small open economy. The effects on welfare of higher health provision come through two main channels: (a) the direct gain from increasing the 'well-being' of the popu...

The main characteristic of the Chinese economy is economic transition from a planned to a market economy. During this process, market competition has been introduced and the competition mechanism has undergone changes. The function of the government has been changed by limiting excess interference in the economy, while the dual price system remains...

The issue of whether globalisation is beneficial remains controversial. Knowledge about its effects is only partial, as globalisation policies are often examined without consideration of their interactions with key sectors of the economy, notably tourism. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy to examine th...

A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the UK economy in 2001 is developed to assess the economy-wide effects of the Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in the UK, with particular attention to the tourism sector. The model includes detailed analysis of the agricultural and tourism sectors with specific links to UK foreign, domestic and regional...

Tax incentives have been adopted worldwide to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). However whether tax incentives can promote FDI productivity spillovers remains unknown. We develop a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of China to explore it. Three market structures are incorporated, namely perfect competition, monopolistic compe...