Adalbert Winkler

Adalbert Winkler
Frankfurt School of Finance & Management · Department of Finance

About

87
Publications
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Introduction

Publications

Publications (87)
Article
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On the occasion of the 80th birthday of Hayek‘s “The Road to Serfdom“, Veronika Grimm, Stefan Kolev and Jens Weidmann have drawn attention to the core messages of the book. In doing so, they relativise the accusation of ideology levelled at the book by instead being suspicious of the manipulation by evidence-based research as it may potentially con...
Article
This paper addresses the question whether the recent rise in inflation can be explained by financial dominance. It is motivated by the fact that the monetary policy response has been slow and timid which might have reflected concerns that a proper response would have triggered substantial financial risks. We find that a misjudgement of aggregate su...
Article
Empirical research depends on reliable data. Yet, in many countries, statistical agencies do not have the capacity to collect high-quality data on economic development. This is especially the case in Africa, where the capacity to collect such data is affected by the same historical factors that explain economic development—in particular, the slave...
Article
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We analyze whether and to what extent strategies employed by governments to fight the COVID-19 pandemic made a difference for GDP growth developments in 2020. Based on the strength and speed with which governments imposed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) when confronted with waves of infections we distinguish between countries pursuing an el...
Article
Zusammenfassung Die als Folge der Corona-Pandemie steigende Staatsverschuldung wird zunehmend kritisch gesehen, weil sie angeblich zukünftige Generationen mit Schulden belaste. Saldenmechanische Zusammenhänge zeigen, dass dies nicht richtig ist: zukünftige Generationen erben einen Verteilungskonflikt zwischen zukünftigen Steuerzahlern und zukünftig...
Article
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Einleitung: Ein Jahr nach der ersten Welle ist ein Ende der Corona- Pandemie abzusehen, aber noch nicht in unmittelbarer Reichweite. Weiterhin reagieren viele Regierungen auf das Infektionsgeschehen mit Kontaktbeschränkungen, die sie je nach Fallzahlen entweder verstärken oder reduzieren. Diese auf Verhältnismäßigkeit ausgerichtete Eindämmungsstrat...
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The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered an unprecedented economic crisis. This article analyses the impact of mandatory social distancing imposed by lockdown policies and voluntary social distancing triggered by COVID-19 fatality rates on GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2020 for a sample of 42 countries. OLS and IV results indicate an importa...
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The COVID-19 pandemic has a severely negative impact on economic activity. We analyze whether and to what extent mandatory social distancing imposed by lockdown policies and voluntary social distancing triggered by COVID-19 fatality rates have driven growth developments in the first and second quarter of 2020. Based on a sample of 46 countries and...
Article
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The coronavirus pandemic led to substantial revisions of 2020 GDP growth projections. We analyse whether and to what extent the quality of government policies in handling the health aspects of the crisis influence cross-country differences in the economic impact of the pandemic as projected by the OECD, the IMF and the World Bank. We measure policy...
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Zusammenfassung Die öffentliche Diskussion zur Corona-Krise nimmt an Schärfe zu. Dabei stehen die Letalitätsrate sowie die Wirkungen staatlicher Maßnahmen in Hinblick auf ihre epidemiologischen und ökonomischen Wirkungen im Mittelpunkt. Der Streit ließe sich klären, wenn man an randomisierte, kontrollierte Studien angelehnte Wirkungsanalysen durchf...
Research
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IFIs provide funding for SMEs, but what impact does this actually have on these firms? This working paper assesses the impact of funding by the EIB on the performance of more than 5,000 SMEs in eight countries in Central and Eastern Europe during 2008-2014. Using propensity score matching and difference-in-difference estimation exercises, it indica...
Article
Based on a dataset covering 2938 banks and 1078 microfinance institutions (MFIs) operating in 106 countries this paper compares drivers of MFI and bank solvency risk. Measuring solvency risk by the non-performing loans (NPL) ratio we find that several factors driving the bank NPL ratio play a more subdued role for MFIs. By contrast, MFI Z-scores, n...
Article
Following up on claims that high and rising levels of financial inclusion might contribute to financial stability, we test whether level and progress in financial inclusion has an effect on the magnitude of a financial bust after a crisis. We do this for the global financial crisis and a sample of crisis episodes covering the period 2004–2017. We f...
Article
In the Forum article “The Euro at 20: Still a Project Projected to Fail?” by Adalbert Winkler in Intereconomics, Vol. 54, No. 2, 2019, p. 90–95, DOI: 10.1007/s10272-019-0800-9, Table 1 and Figure 2 contain incorrect data. The adjustments appear here. Intereconomics regrets this inconvenience.
Article
Since growth and employment are the economic variables dominating the public debate in an era of low inflation, it is no surprise that, that the euro has become a matter of increasing political controversy despite inconclusive evidence on its overall impact.
Article
Reply of Stefan Homburg: In a previous article, Adalbert Winkler alleges that significant balances in the eurozone’s Target2 system presuppose the existence of excess reserves, and that a US style rebalancing would make it impossible for the ECB Governing Council to fulfil its mandate. Homburg shows that both allegations are incorrect. Response of...
Article
The rise of the Bundesbank’s target balance to about one billion euro has revived the debate among German economists about the interpretation and the risks associated with these balances for the German taxpayer and Germany as a whole. This paper explains why this debate is so heated by revealing that the opponents have sharply different views a) ab...
Article
Zusammenfassung Seit dem Konkurs von Lehman Brothers steht die Geldpolitik der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) in Deutschland unter verschärfter Beobachtung. Denn schon die Krisenmaßnahmen 2008/09 verstießen in grober Weise gegen aus ordnungspolitischer Sichtweise zentrale Prinzipien: das Haftungsprinzip und das Primat der Währungspolitik. Seit 2010...
Article
Financial inclusion is said to foster development and growth. However, progress in financial inclusion has been slow in rural areas where poverty is most pronounced. This is often attributed to higher transaction costs, higher risks and a more unfavourable contracting environment which makes it more difficult for financial institutions to achieve a...
Article
Populismus macht sich breit: das zeigen der Brexit, die Wahl Donald Trumps, die befürchteten Ergebnisse der Wahlen in den Niederlanden und Frankreich sowie das Erstarken der AfD in Deutschland. Erklärt wird dieser Trend häufig sozio-kulturell mit einer Skepsis gegenüber der modernen globalisierten Welt. Adalbert Winkler präsentiert einen anderen Er...
Article
Do crisis times hamper or foster entrepreneurship? We analyze the relative growth performance of small and young firms within the German Mittelstand during the 2009 crisis. We find that small firms exhibit a relative growth advantage compared to larger firms in both stable and crisis times, and interpret this as a flexibility advantage of small siz...
Article
The OMT programme has been strongly criticized as being incompatible with the ECB's mandate. Applying standard lender of last resort (LoLR) theory in the assessment of the OMT we find that when de facto operating as a LoLR for governments, the ECB is as much is line with its mandate as when performing as a LoLR for banks. None of four arguments use...
Article
Am 22. Januar 2015 hat die Europäische Zentralbank ein Programm zum erweiterten Ankauf von Staatsanleihen beschlossen. Diese Maßnahme wurde in Wissenschaft und Öffentlichkeit heftig und mit unterschiedlichen Argumenten kritisiert. Der Autor zeigt, dass eine geldpolitische Argumentation, wonach Anleihenkäufe derzeit nicht erforderlich sind, nicht mi...
Chapter
Does a strong presence of foreign banks amplify or mitigate sudden stops of cross-border bank flows to emerging market economies (EMEs)? Do foreign banks reduce or aggravate the associated decline in bank lending in the respective host countries? The global financial crisis provides a unique opportunity to examine these questions. This is because t...
Article
Die Beschlüsse der Europäischen Zentralbank vom 5. Juni 2014 sind zum Teil heftig kritisiert worden. Damit setzt sich die überwiegend negative Bewertung an der Politik der Europäischen Zentralbank fort, die seit langem zu beobachten ist, aber im Widerspruch zur realen Entwicklung steht. Sie lässt sich nur durch das Festhalten an einer Theorie erklä...
Article
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Das Bundesverfassungsgericht hat klar zum Ausdruck gebracht, dass es das OMT-Programm der EZB fur verfassungswidrig halt. Dieser Beitrag zeigt, dass der Beschluss wesentlich darauf beruht, dass die Richter der Theorie effizienter Markte und den sich daraus ergebenden geldpolitischen Implikationen anhangen. Denn nur bei Gultigkeit dieser Theorie ist...
Article
The long-held truism that finance is always good for growth has been called into question by the global financial crisis. This article examines new evidence on the finance-growth nexus from a European perspective. More specifically, it compares the approach of many CESEE countries — i.e. financial deepening and integration via foreign banks — with...
Article
Nach der EZB-Zinssenkung Anfang November 2013 hat sich Bundesbankpräsident Jens Weidmann mehrfach zu Wort gemeldet, um die Sicht der Bundesbank zum derzeitigen Kurs der Geldpolitik zu erläutern. In seinen Stellungnahmen rechtfertigt er grundsätzlich den derzeit expansiven Kurs der Geldpolitik. Gleichzeitig deutet er aber an, dass Kernelemente des b...
Article
Has microfinance become crisis-prone like other sources of finance? This paper provides empirical evidence on credit growth patterns of microfinance institutions in the early 2000s. Results suggest that microfinance has become vulnerable to financial turmoil. In the global financial crisis credit growth dropped sharply. Moreover, the crisis impact...
Article
This paper applies the economic argumentation put forth by the OMT’s opponents before the German Federal Constitutional Court [Bundesverfassungsgericht] to the full allotment policy practiced by the ECB since October 2008. The comparison shows that under this line of reasoning, the full allotment policy also contravenes the ECB’s mandate. Ultimatel...
Article
The management of the euro crisis, i.e. the ECB's lender of last resort activities for crisis countries and crisis banks, as well as the establishment of the European Stability Mechanism and a European banking union, has been severely criticized by economists following the German ordo-liberal tradition. They argue that crisis management violates ke...
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Based on a unique dataset covering 84 institutions operating in 15 countries this paper provides evidence as to the impact of foreign ownership on microfinance sustainability and outreach in Latin America. Overall, we find that foreign-owned microfinance institutions have more borrowers than domestic-owned institutions. This suggests that foreign i...
Article
This paper analyzes dual liquidity crises, i.e. funding crises which encompass the private and the public sector, and the shock absorbing capacity of central banks within a closed system of financial accounts. We find that a central bank that operates under a flexible exchange rate is most effective in containing a dual liquidity crisis. A central...
Article
This paper contributes to the literature on liquidity crises and central banks acting as lenders of last resort by capturing the mechanics of dual liquidity crises, i.e. funding crises which encompass both the private and the public sector, within a closed system of financial accounts. We analyze how the elasticity of liquidity provision by a centr...
Article
Foreign banks have increased their market share in many emerging markets since the mid-1990s. We analyse the stability implications of foreign banks for cross-border and domestic bank lending in the global financial crisis. Our results suggest that a higher foreign bank presence was associated with more stable cross-border bank flows. This result i...
Article
Die Beschlüsse des Euro-Gipfels vom Juni 2012 haben bei deutschen Ökonomen heftige Kritik ausgelöst. Der Autor fragt, welche Konsequenzen es gehabt hätte, wenn die Ratschläge der Ökonomen schon in der Finanzkrise 2008 befolgt worden wären, und befürchtet, dass der Verzicht auf eine am Beispiel des Jahres 2008 orientierte Krisenbekämpfungsstrategie...
Article
This article argues that the crisis in euro area government bond markets reflects the same kind of stability challenges financial intermediaries face when confronted with a negative macroeconomic shock without having access to a lender of last resort. Nineteenth-century US banks operated under such a framework and used clearing houses in times of c...
Article
This paper uncovers the drivers of the credit boom in microfinance in developing and emerging market countries before the onset of the financial crisis. We find that key macroeconomic variables as well as credit growth in the traditional banking sector are significant factors explaining microfinance credit growth. Moreover, the ability of microfina...
Article
How much can regional monitoring of financial markets and coordination of financial sector policies contribute to preventing and mitigating financial crises? This paper reviews and compares the experiences of Europe and Asia, which have taken different routes and have achieved different levels of regional financial integration. The analysis suggest...
Article
Foreign banks have increased their market share in many emerging markets since the mid-1990s. We examine whether this contributed to financial stability in the respective host countries in the global financial crisis. Our results suggest that the stabilizing impact of foreign banks was limited to the cross-border component of financial globalizatio...
Article
Financial globalisation has been associated with divergent current account patterns in emerging markets. In this paper we test for the relevance of financial market characteristics in explaining different current account patterns in emerging Europe and emerging Asia. We find that better developed and more integrated financial markets increase emerg...
Article
This article analyses the impact of the exchange rate on the role of dollar and euro as international currencies. It is found that exchange rate fluctuations are a major determinant of the international role of currencies only if they reflect sizeable inflation differentials. Accordingly, major changes in the international role of dollar and euro a...
Article
Within the last decade sizeable capital inflows from mature economies were accompanied by rapid financial deepening in the Western Balkans, Turkey and the CIS. Notwithstanding their considerably different initial positions most countries sustained financial stability in the first period of the financial crisis. But after the failure of Lehman Broth...
Article
Over recent years, rapid financial deepening has been observed in Southeastern Europe. While originally welcomed as a sign of financial development spurring growth, macrofinancial stability concerns emerged as inflationary pressures rose and current account deficits came close to or surpassed double-digit levels. However, until autumn 2008, stabili...
Article
Global financial integration has been associated with divergent patterns of real convergence and the current account in emerging markets. While countries in emerging Asia have been running sizeable current account surpluses, countries in emerging Europe have been facing large current account deficits. In this paper we test for the relevance of fina...
Article
While spillovers of the present financial turmoil in mature economies to emerging economies have so far largely been contained, the monetary policy implications of the financial turbulence present a challenge to the approach pursued by emerging markets in integrating into the global monetary system following the crises of the mid to late 1990s. Spe...
Article
Zusammenfassung Als Ursache für die internationale Finanzkrise werden immer wieder die globalen Zahlungsbilanzungleichgewichte genannt. Wie belastbar ist dieser Erklärungsansatz, auch vor dem Hintergrund zunehmender Ungleichgewichte in der Euro-Zone — also in Staaten, die den Wechselkurs ihrer Währungen am Euro orientieren? Mit welchen Problemen we...
Article
The impact of sovereign wealth funds on global financial markets by Roland Beck and Michael FidoraOCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES
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This paper reviews selected aspects of economic relations between the EU and Russia, focusing on the impact that the last two waves of EU enlargement have had on Russia, as well as the role of the euro in Russia. The analysis suggests that if EU enlargement has had any diversion effects on trade between the EU and Russia at all, they have been mini...
Article
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This paper reviews financial stability challenges in the EU candidate countries Croatia, Turkey and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. It examines the fi nancial sectors in these three economies, which, while at very different stages of development and embedded in quite diverse economic settings, are all in a process of rapid financial deep...
Article
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Commodity prices play an important role in economic developments in most of the 24 Western and Central African (WCA) countries covered in this paper. It is confirmed that in the light of rising commodity prices between 1999 and 2005, net oil exporters recorded strong growth rates while net oil-importing countries – albeit benefiting from increases...
Chapter
Credit growth has taken center stage in the policy arena in Central, Eastern, and South-eastern Europe (CEE).2 To some extent, this has not been a surprising development. Indeed, given the under-development of the financial sector at the beginning of the transition, and particularly with regard to lending to the private sector, financial deepening...
Article
This paper – based on a report by a Task Force established by the International Relations Committee (IRC) of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) – reviews macroeconomic and financial stability challenges for acceding (Bulgaria and Romania) and candidate countries (Croatia and Turkey). In an environment characterised by strong growth and cap...
Article
Official and unilateral dollarisation/euroisation has become a common policy advice for emerging market economies. Against this background, the paper provides a comprehensive review of all the main cases of dollarisation/euroisation, analysing motives, features and policy implications of this exchange rate regime. The main results are that policies...
Chapter
The turn of the century witnessed a significant renewal of interest in Southeast Europe.2 The international community, notably the European Union (EU), took steps to bring lasting peace and stability to the region under the auspices of the Stability Pact and the Stabilisation and Association Process. These steps have coincided with considerable pro...
Article
Euroisation/dollarisation – the replacement of the domestic currency by a foreign currency, mostly the US dollar or the euro – has regained significant popularity in recent years, as it is generally regarded as a viable ‘corner solution’ for exchange rate regimes. Part of its attractiveness is related to its alleged virtues of fostering greater eco...
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This paper reviews the economic, monetary and financial relations between the EU and the euro area and a set of countries in a broad set of neighbouring regions. The 80 or so countries are mostly classified as transition, emerging or developing economies and belong to four main regions: the Western Balkans; the European part of the Commonwealth of...
Article
Large gaps have opened up between the transition countries in terms of the real income rises the have achieved since 1989. Since phases of hyperinflation are a thing of the past in nearly all of the reforming countries, and the private sector has established itself as the largest contributor to every country's gross domestic product, stabilization...
Article
The increasing incidence and intensity of crises in the international financial markets during the 1990s have given new impetus to the debate on reform of the international financial system. Much of the discussion focuses on the idea of an international lender of last resort which could provide liquidity to ensure the stability of the international...
Article
Tschechien, früher das Musterland unter den Reformstaaten, befindet sich seit der zweiten Hälfte der neunziger Jahre in einer tiefen Rezession. Für dieses Jahr rechnet der IWF zwar wieder mit einem Wachstum des BIP von 2% bis 2,5%, mahnt aber weiterhin die Fortsetzung dringend erforderlicher Strukturreformen an. In seinem Beitrag untersucht Dr. Ada...
Article
Zehn Jahre nach Beginn des Reformprozesses in Mittel- und Osteuropa stehen der Aufbau eines leistungsfähigen Sektors privater kleiner und mittlerer Unternehmen (KMU) sowie die Gestaltung eines effizienten Finanzsystems im Mittelpunkt der Bemühungen der wirtschaftspolitisch Verantwortlichen vor Ort sowie der multi- und bilateralen Organisationen. Za...
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This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection a...
Article
Interpretations of the causes and implications of the EMS crisis of mid-1993 vary considerably. The following article offers a critical analysis of the most common arguments and draws conclusions for future policy.
Article
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Recent research has established a positive and causal link between financial development and economic growth in the long run. For this reason, financial sector reform has been regarded as conducive to faster growth in transition countries. In Southeast Europe, however, reform efforts in the first half of the 1990s failed to prevent inflationary fin...
Article
In the years before the global financial crisis the microfinance sector in many developing countries and emerging market economies joined the traditional banking sector in expanding credit at a rapid pace. We build on the empirical literature on credit booms in the traditional banking sector and test whether the pre-crisis credit boom in microfinan...

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