Abhishek Gaur

National Research Council Canada | NRC · Construction Research Centre

Rapid urbanization and changing land use dynamics require robust tools for projecting and analyzing future land use scenarios to support sustainable urban development. This study introduces an integrated modeling framework that combines the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model with Markov Chain (MC) analysis to simulate land use and la...

Permafrost degradation poses significant environmental and geological challenges in Arctic and subarctic regions, particularly in areas like Umiujaq, Canada. The warming climate leads to thawing permafrost, causing ground instability, disrupting hydrology, and impacting local built environment. This study evaluates the use of Ground Source Heat Pum...

The longevity of polymer-based sealant and jointing products, including elastomers, significantly depends on the level of exposure to sunlight and joint movement. These factors are particularly crucial in the application of polymers in construction due to their susceptibility to degradation under environmental conditions. For instance, diurnal cycl...

As cities face a changing climate, buildings will be subjected to increasing energy demand, heat stress, thermal comfort issues, and decreased service life. Therefore, evaluating building performance under climate change is essential for maintaining sustainable and resilient communities. To better prepare building simulation climate data with urban...

Plain Language Summary Precise simulations of snow depth (SD) are crucial for understanding changes in the Earth's energy balance and helping efforts to combat climate change. In this research, we evaluate how well the latest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) can simulate the daily SD across Canada. By comparing these simul...

We present unprecedented datasets of current and future projected weather files for building simulations in 15 major cities distributed across 10 climate zones worldwide. The datasets include ambient air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, direct and diffuse solar irradiance, and wind speed at hourly resolution, which are essentia...

We present unprecedented datasets of current and future projected weather files for building simulations in 15 major cities distributed across 10 climate zones worldwide. The datasets include ambient air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, direct and diffuse solar irradiance, and wind speed at hourly resolution, which are essentia...

Within Annex 80, there is a manifold need to use key performance indicators (KPI, i.e. performance met rics). This is relevant to all Subtasks. The “Task Group KPI” is established to coordinate and clarify the KPIs, used within Annex 80. The Task Group shall collect and coordinate KPIs, relevant to Resilient Cool ing. It shall develop and constantl...

Urban Green Infrastructure (UGI) plays a critical role in creating Thermal Resilient Communities (TRCs) by mitigating the adverse climate change impacts and enhancing thermal resilience. In this paper, we consider a range of UGI types, from street trees, urban parks, green spaces, and building-integrated UGI components, such as green roofs and gree...

Snow depth (SD) is a crucial variable of the water, energy, and nutrient cycles, impacting water quantity and quality, the occurrence of floods and droughts, snow-related hazards, and sub-surface ecological functions. As a result, quantifying SD dynamics is crucial for several scientific and practical applications. Ground measurements of SD provide...

Recent decades have seen an alarming rise in urban overheating due to climate change. A number of studies have evaluated outdoor overheating in cities around globe under a changing climate. The spatial scale of assessment conducted in them is coarse and is unable to reflect street-level changes in projected climate. This study assesses the effects...

As the world continues to urbanize at an unprecedented pace, cities face mounting challenges, one of which is the increasing frequency and intensity of water-related disasters (Benfield, 2016). The devastating impacts of floods, storm surges, and rising sea levels pose significant threats to urban systems and the well-being of their inhabitants. To...

Climate change has led to prolonged, more frequent, intense, and severe extreme weather events, such as summertime heatwaves and thus, it is imperative to understand and evaluate the overheating conditions. This study evaluated a reference year selection method in terms of typical and extreme reference years based on future climate datasets to asse...

This study explores the spatial variability of the thermal responses of older occupants’ in indoor environments at various locations in Montreal, Canada. Urban climate in and around the city over an extreme heat event in 2018 is simulated at 1 km spatial resolution using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and data for 29 long-term care b...

In this study, the synergistic interactions of the urban heat island effect and the heatwaves occurring in the summer of 2018 in the cities of Montreal and Ottawa, Canada, are discussed through a comparison between days with and without a heatwave event. Three (3) time frames were prepared as part of this comparison: a pre-heatwave period from June...

The objective of this research is to investigate the effects of different bias correction (BC) methods applied to climate data used to assess the hygrothermal performance on building envelopes based on simulations. To this end, a univariate and two multivariate distribution based bias correction methods were used to prepare weather files to assess...

In this study, a comparison is made of overheating in multiple field-monitored buildings using several different overheating indices, including dry-bulb temperature, the heat index (HI), humidex (H), standard effective temperature (SET), wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), discomfort index (DI), and summer simmer index (SSI). The field monitoring wa...

The need to mitigate and adapt to a changing climate is becoming more urgent, especially in highly urbanized areas where a growing portion of the population lives. This study quantifies the effectiveness of two Nature-Based Solutions - cool roofs and urban vegetation - in the moderation of urban temperature during past Extreme Heat Events in the Ot...

Supplementary Information of "Evolution of the local climate in Montreal and Ottawa before, during and after a heatwave and the effects on urban heat islands"

The interactions between climate change and urbanization have generated mounting concerns regarding outdoor and indoor overheating within urban populations, impacting thermal comfort, heat-related mortality, and energy consumption, particularly during heat waves that are becoming more frequent, intense, and prolonged. Various strategies have been p...

The heatwave event to which the Ontario-Quebec area was subjected in 2018 resulted in significant morbidity and mortality. In this study, an investigation was conducted on how this heatwave affected the respective urban heat islands (UHIs) in Montreal and Ottawa. The modelled urban climates were compared before, during and after the heatwave using...

Under heat-stressful conditions, occupants can adapt to the environment by regulating sweating or blood flow to the surface of the skin. However, the ability of the human body thermoregulation declines with age due to age-related physiological and thermoregulatory changes such as the delay in vasodilation and sweating and lower metabolism. Therefor...

In this study, a comparison is made of overheating in multiple field-monitored buildings using several different overheating indices, including dry-bulb temperature, the heat index (HI), humidex (H), standard effective temperature (SET), wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), discomfort index (DI), and summer simmer index (SSI). The field monitoring wa...

The objective of this research is to investigate the effects of different bias correction (BC) methods applied to climate data used to assess the hygrothermal performance on building envelopes based on simulations. To this end, a univariate and two multivariate distribution based bias correction methods were used to prepare weather files to assess...

This study explores the spatial variability of the thermal responses of older occupants' in indoor environments at various locations in Montreal, Canada. Urban climate in and around the city over an extreme heat event in 2018 is simulated at 1 km spatial resolution using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and data for 29 long-term care b...

Canada is warming at double the rate of the global average caused in part to a fast-growing population and large land transformations, where urban surfaces contribute significantly to the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon. The federal government released the strengthened climate plan in 2020, which emphasizes using nature-based solutions (NBSs) to...

Recently, due to overheated indoor environments caused by climate change, there is an obvious increase in heat-related death and thus, it is necessary to evaluate the indoor overheating conditions. This study proposed and evaluated a new reference year selection method in terms of typical and extreme reference years based on future climate datasets...

In this study, the spatial distribution of the urban climate is evaluated and its impact on indoor overheating conditions is assessed. This was done by modelling the near-field climate of Ottawa and Montreal at 1 km resolution for the summer of 2018 during which an extreme heat event occurred causing nearly 100 deaths in this area. The climate data...

Climate change will continue to bring about unprecedented climate extremes in the future, and buildings and infrastructure will be exposed to such conditions. To ensure that new and existing buildings deliver satisfactory performance over their design lives, their performance under current and future projected climates needs to be assessed by under...

Climate change has led to prolonged, more frequent, intense, and severe extreme weather events, such as summertime heatwaves, creating many challenges on the economy and society and human health and energy resources. For example, the 2010 and 2018 heatwave in Quebec, Canada, resulted in about 280 and 93 heat-related deaths, and there were around 50...

IEA EBC Annex 80 - Dynamic simulation guideline for the performance testing of resilient cooling strategies

This study demonstrates the importance of high-resolution climate simulations when conducting city-scale outdoor heat wave alert and indoor overheating assessments. This is done by modelling urban climate of the Ottawa and Montreal cities at 1 km and 25 km, typical for regional climate modelling respectively, over the summer of 2018 when an extreme...

A moisture reference year (MRY) is generally used to assess the durability, or long-term performance of building envelopes within a long climatological time period, e.g. a 31 year timeframe. The intent of this paper is to develop a set of moisture reference years that can be used to assess risk to the formation of mould growth in wood-frame buildin...

As a consequence of global warming and rapid urbanization around the globe, the magnitudes and frequencies of extreme heat events (EHEs) are increasing and this trend is expected to continue into the future. In this study, the added benefit of modelling climate at convection-permitting spatial resolutions (grid spacing < 4 km) is considered for a s...

When assessing a building performance under overheating conditions, there is a need to identify extreme hot years (EHYs) for a given climate location. Different types of EHYs can be selected depending on the criteria for their selection, such as long, intense, or severe heatwaves defined based on dry-bulb temperature and other thermal comfort indic...

Climate change is a major contributor to extreme heat events, which have been a threat to the health of building occupants. It has been found that the rates of mortality and morbidity are much higher for urban dwellers during prolonged periods of elevated outdoor temperature. However, only limited studies have been conducted on the current overheat...

As a consequence of global warming, buildings in Canada and around the globe are expected to face unprecedented climate over their design lives. The Moisture Index (MI) is a climate-based indicator currently used in the National Building Code of Canada (NBCC) to guide the design of wall assemblies for acceptable durability performance. In this stud...

Infrastructure systems are primarily located in urban areas. The urban climate is often different from the surrounding rural climate. It is generally warmer, rainier, less windy and more polluted. This means that more drastic effects of changing climate will be experienced by the urban infrastructure systems than the surrounding areas (Krayenhoff e...

It is now well accepted that global greenhouse gas emissions will result in drastic changes in climate and patterns of natural disasters such as wildfires in Canada and across the globe. This study quantifies potential future changes in wildfire regimes around 11 Canadian cities with high socio-economic value and historically exposed with low to hi...

In the face of rapid urbanization and global warming, it is important to acquire a better understanding of urban climate and land-atmosphere interactions operating therein. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is a limited area model that has been used to study urban microclimate in many cities across the globe. However, such a study is...

In this study, a 1 km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is developed for the Montreal city and validated by field monitored data. The validated model will be used to dynamically downscale future projections of climate made around the city to evaluate the overheating conditions based on building energy simulations. The indoor t...

There is a significant share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions attributed to the built environment, either for production or the operation of buildings. Various initiatives are being implemented to reduce the release of GHGs into the atmosphere relying on the evaluation, tracking, recording and verification of GHG emissions and removals. The annual...

Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves are among the most essential datasets used in water resources management across the globe. Traditionally, they are derived from observations of historical rainfall, under the assumption of stationarity. Change of climatic conditions makes use of historical data for development of IDFs for the futur...

Sustainable building practices are rooted in the need for reliable information on the long-term performance of building materials; specifically, the expected service-life of building materials, components, and assemblies. This need is ever more evident given the anticipated effects of climate change on the built environment and the many governmenta...

Overheating in buildings arising from climatic extreme heat events has been identified as a health concern to vulnerable occupants. However, there have been very limited studies to generate suitable weather data to evaluate by simulation the overheating risk and its effect on the comfort and health of occupants. This paper develops a methodology to...

This chapter identifies key research priorities for fulfilling a subset of the work under the Climate-Resilient Buildings and Core Public Infrastructure project that relate to the health and safety of building occupants under projected changes in climate. In particular, (dis)comfort and mortality of occupants because of future projected overheating...

In North America, and abroad, there currently exist standard test protocols for assessing the watertightness of wall assemblies and fenestration components although most of these methods are not directly related to expectations of in-field conditions as might be experienced by a wall assembly over its intended service life. How useful might such te...

Sub-daily precipitation gauging stations are limited, and unevenly distributed across Canada. To support the design of sustainable storm-water infrastructure, especially in the data sparse regions of Canada, this study presents a novel, gridded Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) dataset of precipitation storms of 5, 10, 15, 30, 60 min, 1, 2, 6, 12,...

Canada has experienced widespread impacts of climate change, and has warmed at about double the rate at which the globe has warmed on average since the pre-industrial period. The magnitudes, frequencies, intensities, and spatial distribution of climate variables and their extremes are expected to be continually modified across Canada in the future...

Buildings and homes in Canada will be exposed to unprecedented climatic conditions in the future as a consequence of global climate change. To improve the climate resiliency of existing and new buildings, it is important to evaluate their performance over current and projected future climates. Hygrothermal and whole building simulation models, whic...

This study discusses the flooding related consequences of climate change on most populous Canadian cities and flow regulation infrastructure (FRI). The discussion is based on the aggregated results of historical and projected future flooding frequencies and flood timing as generated by Canada-wide hydrodynamic modelling in a previous study. Impact...

Climate change has induced considerable changes in the dynamics of key hydro-climatic variables across Canada, including floods. In this study, runoff projections made by 21 General Climate Models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used to generate 25 km resolution streamflow estimates across Canada for historical (1...

Changes in climatic conditions are expected to affect the hydrological cycle with intensification of extreme rainfall events caused by the disturbance in temperature and other atmospheric variables linked to precipitation. Extreme rainfall change will affect the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationship, used in the design, maintenance, and o...

The Multiplicative Random Cascade (MRC) disaggregation model has been extensively used to disaggregate precipitation in many regions across the globe. In this study, it is adapted to disaggregate a range of climate variables (CV) relevant for hygrothermal modelling of building envelopes. This generalized MRC-G model is further improved by explicitl...

Physical Scaling (SP) method downscales climate model data to local or regional scales taking into consideration physical characteristics of the area under analysis. In this study, multiple SP method based models are tested for their effectiveness towards downscaling North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) daily precipitation data. Model performa...

This study investigates the relationship between historically observed changes in extreme precipitation magnitudes and temperature (Pex-T relationship) at multiple locations in Canada. The focus is on understanding the behavior of these relationships with regards to key storm characteristics such as its duration, season of occurrence, and location....

Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) is an urban climate phenomenon that is expected to respond to future climate and land-use land-cover change. It is important to further our understanding of physical mechanisms that govern SUHI phenomenon to enhance our ability to model future SUHI characteristics under changing geophysical conditions. In this study...

Climate impacts on humans, nature and world economics are major research challenges of today. Climate and freshwater resources are integrated with each other in a significant way so any change in one may influence the other. Continuous rise of global temperature has a significant impact on freshwater resources. At present, one of the key objectives...

Physical scaling (SP) method is a statistical downscaling approach where model-based climate data are downscaled taking into consideration large-scale climate, elevation and land-cover at the location of interest. In this study, the downscaling skills of an ensemble of SP method and its variants and Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) towards down...

The objective of this study is to investigate the vulnerability of different land-cover types to climate change. To this end, land-cover specific temperature change factors are quantified for the southern Saskatchewan region using a novel statistical downscaling model: physical scaling (SP). SP model considers large-scale climate and regional physi...

Water Resources Research Report

Three different sources of process-based uncertainty in climate change impact studies have been identified. It has been demonstrated that uncertainty can arise from: a) differences in the process approach, b) differences in the methods used in each step of the process, and c) differences in the space, time and distribution scales considered for ana...

In this study future flooding frequencies have been estimated for the Grand River catchment located in southwestern Ontario, Canada. Historical and future climatic projections made by fifteen Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-3 climate models are bias-corrected and downscaled before they are used to obtain mid-and end of 21 st century streamfl...

Water Sustainability Index has been used by several nations across the globe to address key water issues. However, these indices have certain limitations and are not suitable for their applications in wider conditions such as existing in India. The problems with the use of these indices in Indian conditions are due to unavailability, unreliability...