Abby Frazier

Clark University · School of Geography

The ongoing emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is triggering changes in many climate hazards that can impact humanity. We found traceable evidence for 467 pathways by which human health, water, food, economy, infrastructure and security have been recently impacted by climate hazards such as warming, heatwaves, precipitation, drought, floods, fires...

Drought is a growing threat to hydrological, ecological, agricultural, and socio-cultural systems of the tropics, especially tropical islands of the Pacific where severe droughts can compromise food and water security. Overcoming barriers to knowledge sharing between land managers and researchers is a critical cross-sector strategy for engaging and...

Drought is a prominent feature of Hawaiʻi’s climate. However, it has been over 30 years since the last comprehensive meteorological drought analysis, and recent drying trends have emphasized the need to better understand drought dynamics and multi-sector effects in Hawaiʻi. Here, we provide a comprehensive synthesis of past drought effects in Hawai...

Climate change is expected to put significant pressure on global food production. Although previous work has explored impacts of climate, management, and genetics on food production, additional research is needed to examine the effects of large-scale climate modes at local and regional scales. This study explores the impact of climate variability o...

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/30/ Climate change—especially sea level rise, altered rainfall patterns, and rising ocean and air temperatures—impairs access to clean water and healthy food, undermines human health, threatens cultural resources and the built environment, exacerbates inequities, and disrupts economic activity and diverse ec...

Gridded monthly rainfall estimates can be used for a number of research applications, including hydrologic modeling and weather forecasting. Automated interpolation algorithms, such as the “autoKrige” function in R, can produce gridded rainfall estimates that validate well but produce unrealistic spatial patterns. In this work, an optimized geostat...

Tropical island ecosystems are highly vulnerable to the multiple threats of climate change (Nurse et al. 2014; Bonan 2008). In response, agencies and organizations are tasked with developing land-management strategies to help ecosystems adapt to changing environmental conditions (Swanston et al. 2016). Research has shown that proactive planning can...

The State of Hawai'i passed legislation to be carbon neutral by 2045, a goal that will partly depend on carbon sequestration by terrestrial ecosystems. However, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the future direction and magnitude of the land carbon sink in the Hawaiian Islands. We used the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS),...

In cooperation with the State of Hawai‘i Commission on Water Resource Management and in collaboration with the University of Hawaiʻi Water Resources Research Center, the U.S. Geological Survey developed a water-resource monitoring program—a rainfall, surface-water, and groundwater data-collection program—that is required to meet State needs for wat...

Summer precipitation in Hawai'i accounts for 40% of the annual total and provides important water sources. However, our knowledge about its variability remains limited. Here we show that statewide Hawai'i summer rainfall (HSR) variability exhibits two distinct regimes: quasi-biennial (QB, ~2 years) and interdecadal (~30–40 years). The QB variation...

Spatially explicit, wall-to-wall rainfall data provide foundational climatic information but alone are inadequate for characterizing meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, or ecological drought. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is one of the most widely used indicators of drought and defines localized conditions of both drought and e...

Climate Change in Guam: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors is a report developed by the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA). It is one in a series of reports aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about climate change indicators, impacts, and adaptive capacity of the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands and the Hawaiian archi...

Novel forms of drought are emerging globally, due to climate change, shifting teleconnection patterns, expanding human water use, and a history of human influence on the environment that increases the probability of transformational ecological impacts. These costly ecological impacts cascade to human communities, and understanding this changing dro...

Alpine ecosystems in the Pacific Islands are isolated and unique, characterized by high levels of endemism. Only Hawai‘i and New Zealand have elevations high enough to contain substantial alpine climates, and about 11% of the land area of both island groups is located above treeline. Both of these volcanically active archipelagos are characterized...

Spatially continuous data products are essential for a number of applications including climate and hydrologic modeling, weather prediction, and water resource management. In this work, a distance-weighted interpolation method used to map daily rainfall and temperature in Hawaii is described and assessed. New high-resolution (250 m) maps were devel...

Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns worldwide, which will affect streamflow in riverine ecosystems. It is vital to understand the impacts of projected flow variations, especially in tropical regions where the effects of climate change are expected to be one of the earliest to emerge. Space‐for‐time substitutions have been suc...

Over the last century, significant declines in rainfall across the state of Hawai‘i have been observed, and it is unknown whether these declines are due to natural variations in climate, or manifestations of human-induced climate change. Here, a statistical analysis of the observed rainfall variability was applied as first step towards better under...

Long-term, accurate observations of atmospheric phenomena are essential for a myriad of applications, including historic and future climate assessments, resource management, and infrastructure planning. In Hawai‘i, climate data are available from individual researchers, local, State, and Federal agencies, and from large electronic repositories such...

Spatial patterns of rainfall in Hawai‘i are among the most diverse in the world. As the global climate warms, it is important to understand observed rainfall variations to provide context for future changes. This is especially important for isolated oceanic islands where freshwater resources are limited, and understanding the potential impacts of c...

Globally, montane treelines are thought to be controlled by low-temperature limitations. The upper limit of cloud forest on Haleakalā, Maui, however, is hypothesized to be controlled by moisture limitations, particularly drought events. Drought in Hawai‘i is largely driven by El Niño and future projections show an increased frequency of extreme El...

Background: Detailed assessments of species responses to climate change are uncommon, owing to the limited nature of most ecological and local climate data sets. Exceptions, such as the case of the Haleakalā silversword, can provide important insights into the complexity of biological responses to changing climate conditions. We present a time seri...

The Hawaiian Islands have one of the most spatially diverse rainfall patterns on earth. Knowledge of these patterns is critical for a variety of resource management issues and, until now, only long-term mean monthly and annual rainfall maps have been available for Hawai‘i. In this study, month-year rainfall maps from January 1920 to December 2012 w...

In the accompanying Comment, Hawkins et al.1 suggest that our index2 of the projected timing of climate departure from recent variability is biased to occur too early and is given with overestimated confidence. We contest their assertions and maintain that our findings are conservative and remain unaltered in light of their analysis.

Growing evidence suggests short-duration climate events may drive community structure and composition more directly than long-term climate means, particularly at ecotones where taxa are close to their physiological limits. Here we use an empirical habitat model to evaluate the role of microclimate during a strong El Niño in structuring a tropical m...

Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative green...

Estimates of clear sky global solar irradiance using the parametric model SPCTRAL2 were tested against clear sky radiation observations at four sites in Hawai`i using daily, mean monthly, and 1 year mean model parameter settings. Atmospheric parameters in SPCTRAL2 and similar models are usually set at site-specific values and are not varied to repr...

Despite the buffering effects of the tropical Pacific Ocean, secular trends in air temperature, precipitation, and stream discharge, especially during the past three decades, suggest that Hawai'i is already experiencing rapid climate change. Temperature increased statewide at 0.164 degrees C per decade during the 30 years ending in 2006, with more...

Some of the main questions regarding climate change in Hawai'i are: 1) How has the climate of Hawai'i changed? 2) What can we infer as likely climate change scenarios in the future? 3) What is the spatial structure of the projected changes? To try to find answers to these crucial questions, accurate climate data are needed to assess the possible im...

We present results from our statistical analysis regarding low and high rainfall events and their relation to large-scale climate anomalies. We focus on two aspects of the hydroclimatic conditions in Hawai'i: months with low rainfall, and the number of days with heavy rain during the wet season (November-April). Low rain events are defined as month...

The Hawaiian Islands have one of the most spatially-diverse rainfall patterns on earth. Island topography, persistent trade winds, thermal effects of the islands, and the presence of the trade-wind inversion interact to cause air to be lifted in distinct spatial patterns anchored to the topography. The resulting clouds and rainfall produced by this...