A. Korotayev

A. Korotayev
HSE University · Laboratory for Monitoring Sociopolitical Destabilization Risks

Ph.D.

About

498
Publications
253,351
Reads
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4,879
Citations
Introduction
Head of the Laboratory of Monitoring of the Sociopolitical Destabilization Risks at HSE University; Senior Research Professor - Institute of Oriental Studies and Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Professor at the Russian State University for the Humanities; Professor of the Faculty of Global Studies of the Moscow State University; Senior Reearch Professor at Laboratory of Political Demography of RANEPA.
Additional affiliations
January 2009 - December 2015
Russian Academy of Sciences
Position
  • "Complex System Analysis and Mathematical Modeling of the World Dynamics"
September 2001 - present
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Position
  • Head and Professor
September 1994 - April 2014
Russian State University for the Humanities
Position
  • Head of Department
Education
November 1991 - July 1994
The University of Manchester
Field of study
  • Middle Eastern Studies
September 1978 - June 1984

Publications

Publications (498)
Article
Full-text available
The idea that in the near future we should expect "the Singularity" has become quite popular recently, primarily thanks to the activities of Google technical director in the field of machine training Raymond Kurzweil and his book The Singularity Is Near (2005). It is shown that the mathematical analysis of the series of events (described by Kurzwei...
Article
Full-text available
The article presents results of spectral analysis that has detected the presence of Kondratieff waves (their period equals approximately 52–53 years) in the world GDP dynamics for the 1870–2007 period. To estimate the statistical significance of the detected cycles a new methodology has been applied. The significance of K-waves in the analyzed data...
Article
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The evolution of the Afroeurasian world-system which in the 'long 16 th century' was transformed into the global World System comprised both economic and political components, some of which are discussed in the present article. Earlier research has identified four major zones of instability which can be designated as the Central Asian (including Af...
Article
The article examines the reasons for the increasing terrorist activity in Burkina Faso after the revolution in 2014. For decades, the Sahel has been one of the most unstable regions in Africa and the Afrasian zone of instability. However, in the 2010s the Sahel has experienced a dramatic increase in terrorist activity: by 2015, the number of terror...
Article
Full-text available
In the article, the authors pose and consider in detail the extremely topical question of whether capitalism has a future or will it be replaced by some new system. And if there is a future, then what kind of future is it? These are not new questions, but in the last few years they have acquired exceptional importance, since not only the left, but...
Article
Full-text available
During the Holocene, the scale and complexity of human societies increased markedly. Generations of scholars have proposed different theories explaining this expansion, which range from broadly functionalist explanations, focusing on the provision of public goods, to conflict theories, emphasizing the role of class struggle or warfare. To quantitat...
Article
Full-text available
The Internet provides a medium for the rapid mobilization of dissatisfied citizens and potentially contributes to various forms of political instability, including terrorism. However, the spread of the Internet may not lead to a higher intensity of terrorist attacks because direct perpetrators rely on close personal offline ties, and the national s...
Article
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The 20th century revolutionary process had a big impact on the World System and significantly changed its entire configuration. However, there are essential gaps in terms of theoretical approaches, in particular, in terms of the typology of revolutions. Moreover, there is clearly insufficient research related to qualitative and quantitative analysi...
Article
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Despite the existence of numerous hypotheses about what factors influence protesters’ choice of armed vs. unarmed struggle tactics, today there is a dearth of global, quantitative cross-national studies aimed at identifying the reasons why revolutions take a violent vs. a non-violent form. The article attempts to fill one of the gaps existing here...
Article
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The female advantage in life expectancy (LE) is found throughout the world, despite differences in living conditions. However, this advantage has diminished in recent years in countries with low mortality rates. In Russia, according to data for 2020, the difference in life expectancy at birth between women and men is 10 years (according to Rosstat)...
Article
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This article offers a comparison of sociopolitical instability forecasting systems. It compares systematically their efficiency by correlating their predictions for particular years with actual levels of destabilization in the respective years. It is demonstrated that the predictive capacity of those systems dropped dramatically after 2011. This is...
Preprint
Full-text available
p>Is there a relationship between education and the type of revolutionary action – violent or nonviolent? Past studies found a positive relationship between the education and nonviolence, but the influence that education produces on the form that revolution takes has not yet been explored. This paper examines it at a cross-national level with an an...
Preprint
Full-text available
p>Is there a relationship between education and the type of revolutionary action – violent or nonviolent? Past studies found a positive relationship between the education and nonviolence, but the influence that education produces on the form that revolution takes has not yet been explored. This paper examines it at a cross-national level with an an...
Article
Both urbanization and a high share of youth (“youth bulge”) have been shown to correlate with higher levels of political violence, in general, and terrorism, in particular. In this article, we test the hypothesis that urbanization and general youth bulge (share of aged 15–29 in the adult population) should produce a particularly significant impact...
Article
The article aims to show the potential of the synthesis of Kondratiev’s concept of long cycles (waves), the theory of production (technological) revolutions, and the concept of the leading sectors and technological orders. Based on these theories, the article analyzes the contemporary cybernetic revolution that started in the 1950s and puts forward...
Article
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An acceleration of economic growth in Tropical Africa is currently expected due to the demographic bonus. These expectations are based on the assumptions of an accelerating decline in fertility in the countries of Tropical Africa. At the same time, it should be noted that a significant number of countries in the region have faced rather long period...
Article
Статья предлагает предварительное описание трех революционных волн XXI в., их ключевых характеристик и причин. Одна из целей данной статьи – развить аналитические инструменты, в частности углубить понимание самого понятия революции и революционных событий, а также типологию революционных событий. В целом настоящая статья предлагает теоретический и...
Article
Demographic changes associated with the transformation from traditional to advanced economies are the basis for many of today’s theories of violent and non-violent protest formation. Both levels of urbanization and the size of the “youth bulge” have shown to be reliable measures for predicting protest events in a country. As these two processes res...
Book
Full-text available
Настоящий ежегодник представляет собой одиннадцатый том «Системного мониторинга глобальных и региональных рисков», подготовленный в рамках Программы Института Африки РАН «Дестабилизационные процессы на Ближнем Востоке и в Северной Африке в контексте глобального развития и национальных интересов России» (руководитель – профессор А. В. Коротаев). Мон...
Article
Full-text available
Among many influences that the pandemic has and will have on society and the World System as a whole, one of the most important is the acceleration of the start of a new technological wave and a new technological paradigm in the near future. This impact is determined by the growing need for the development of a number of areas in medicine, bio- and...
Article
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What have been the causes and consequences of technological evolution in world history? In particular, what propels innovation and diffusion of military technologies, details of which are comparatively well preserved and which are often seen as drivers of broad socio-cultural processes? Here we analyze the evolution of key military technologies in...
Preprint
Full-text available
During the Holocene the scale and complexity of human societies increased dramatically. Generations of scholars have proposed different theories explaining this expansion, which range from functionalist explanations, focusing on the provision of public goods, to conflict theories, emphasizing the role of class struggle or warfare. To quantitatively...
Article
The study investigates different ways in which urbanization and its tempo influence terrorist activity. In line with other researchers investigating nonlinear effects on instability, we suggest that the influence of both of them is nonlinear, with quadratic regression being more appropriate for urbanization level impact and interaction between urba...
Article
Full-text available
This article proposes a new explanation of the positive correlation between democracy and terrorism detected in many previous studies. It is shown that this might be accounted for by the fact that factional democracies are subjected to more terrorist attacks than the other political regimes. A positive relationship between the democratic regime and...
Article
The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to become one of the turning points in the transformation of the world order, as well as many political, social and other relations in the World System. Undoubtedly, we live in a fast-changing world, when it is imperative to look beyond the horizon of current events in order to understand what tomorrow may bring. In...
Article
The current article investigates societal indicators associated with economic development that may account for the strong positive correlation between GDP per capita and protest intensity. The authors’ tests reveal that the expansion of democratization, education, and urbanization are one of the main influences accounting for this positive relation...
Article
In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region after the Arab Spring, monarchy has turned out to be a far stronger negative predictor of destabilization than it was before 2011. For the MENA, the period after 2010 can be subdivided into three periods: a mass protests period (2011–2012), the period of explosive growth of radical Islamist activiti...
Book
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Every time we work on this Yearbook, we are focused on making at least a small step forward to gradual elaboration of a megaevolutionary paradigm which is designed to create a united scientific field for cross-disciplinary studies. The present volume is the seventh issue of the ‘Evolution’ Yearbook series. Our Yearbooks are designed to present to i...
Chapter
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The continuity of social life observed between non-human primates and humans is fundamental for understanding the formation of human society in the course of evolution as well as its further social evolution. This paper aims specifically at studying dominance styles and variability of social relationships in non-human primates and humans. The stati...
Chapter
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The spatial distribution of folklore-mythological motifs is shown to correlate rather tightly with the distribution of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and Y-chromosome (NRY) haplogroups. The analysis of spatial distribution of folklore- mythological motifs confirms earlier findings of geneticists which identified South Siberia as the Old World homeland o...
Chapter
Full-text available
The “normative business plan” of Syrian reconstruction (implying the implementation of the UN Security Council Resolution 2254, political dialogue, adoption of a new constitution, and free elections leading to a regime change followed by the provision to the new regime of the funds that are necessary for a full-scale Syrian reconstruction on the pa...
Article
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This study investigates the effect that formal education, as a factor of socio-economic development, has on the intensity and forms of political protest. By way of increased socialization of democratic values, increased cognitive understanding of the society at large, and human capital to participate in protests, increases in a country’s level of f...
Article
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Данная статья во многом является продолжением нашей прошлой работы по ранжированию предикторов различных измерений нестабильности. В данной работе предпринята попытка провести более глубокую проработку предыдущих исследований и усовершенствовать методологию проводимого исследования. На основе анализа опыта предыдущих исследований в данной работе пр...
Article
Full-text available
The first wave of the civil war in Libya, which ended after the assassination of Muammar Qaddafi in the fall of 2011, did not put an end to the civil conflict in the country. It is shown that in many respects the second wave of the civil war in Libya (the beginning of the active phase of which can be dated May 16, 2014) was a direct continuation of...
Article
Demographic changes associated with the transition from traditional to modern economies underlie many modern theories of protest formation. Both the level of urbanization and the “Youth Bulge” effect have proven to be particularly reliable indicators for predicting protest events. However, given that in the course of economic development these proc...
Article
Our analysis allows us to talk about two waves of the echo of the Arab spring in Western Europe. The first wave was observed in 2011 and was expressed in the explosive growth of mainly peaceful protests. Taking into account the data on the direct impact of the events of the Arab Spring on the protest activity in Western Europe, the explosive increa...
Article
Full-text available
Previous studies have revealed a somewhat paradoxical strong positive correlation between per capita GDP and the intensity of anti-government demonstrations observed for the vast majority of countries (indeed, it turns out that the better people live, the more likely they are to join anti-government protests). The goal of this article is to identif...
Article
Full-text available
This paper examines the impact of the increase in terrorist activity in the Middle East after the Arab Spring on the terrorist threat in other parts of the world. The aim of the work is to clarify, using quantitative methods, the factors, mechanisms and scale of the spread of Islamist terrorism from the Middle East. A qualitative study of time seri...
Data
The Standard Cross-Cultural Sample is a sample of 186 cultures used by scholars engaged in cross-cultural studies. The Standard Cross-Cultural Sample database contains nearly 2000 coded variables describing culture, economy, political and social organization and many other aspects of those cultures.
Data
The Standard Cross-Cultural Sample is a sample of 186 cultures used by scholars engaged in cross-cultural studies. The Standard Cross-Cultural Sample database contains nearly 2000 coded variables describing culture, economy, political and social organization and many other aspects of those cultures.
Preprint
Full-text available
The causes and consequences of technological evolution in world history have been much debated. Of particular importance in many of the theoretical and empirical studies on this topic is innovation in military technologies, details of which are comparatively well preserved in the archaeology and historical record and which are often seen as drivers...
Article
Full-text available
In the paper Islamism is described as a multi-faceted, multi-dimensional, changing and inconsistent phenomenon. Islamism possesses many levels and manifestations. It is impossible to comprehend modern Muslim (and all the more Arab) societies without an account of the impact of Islam as simultaneously an ideology, cultural environment, modus agenda...
Article
Aims Non-beverage alcohol was a major cause of preventable mortality of working-age males in Izhevsk (Russia) in 2003–2004. The Russian government has since taken measures to reduce availability of non-beverage alcohol. Yet, some types of non-beverage alcohol still remain available for consumers. The aim of this study was to assess the availability...
Article
This paper proposes a methodological approach to analyzing the evolution of the stability of socioeconomic systems and to assessing the risk of their possible destabilization based on the use of mathematical modeling methods. In this paper, a basic model is presented allowing us to describe the joint dynamics of processes in the economic, organizat...
Chapter
Full-text available
In the late 1st millennium BCE, a relatively strong Ancient Sabaean state was transformed into the Middle Sabaean political system consisting of a weak state in its center and strong chiefdoms on its periphery. In the 1st millennium CE, the North-East Yemen political system consisting of a weak state in its center and strong chiefdoms on its periph...
Article
Full-text available
Over a long period, the main intrigue within the current global contradiction has been the resistance of most of the world community to the growing egoism of the USA, which is not willing to consider other countries’ interests. This has become even more evident since Donald Trump's rise to power, as the frontline of the contradictions has expanded...
Article
Full-text available
This article revisits the prediction, made in 2010, that the 2010–2020 decade would likely be a period of growing instability in the United States and Western Europe Turchin P. 2018. This prediction was based on a computational model that quantified in the USA such structural-demographic forces for instability as popular immiseration, intraelite co...
Article
Full-text available
Yemen occupies a peripheral place in Russian foreign policy for three reasons: lack of serious economic interest, the illusory potential of strengthening the military presence there and recognition of Saudi Arabia’s role in the Yemeni conflict. However, a deepening of the split within the Arab coalition in Yemen, primarily between the UAE and Saudi...
Data
Dataset for article by Korotayev A., Khaltourina D., Shishkina A., Issaev L. Non-beverage alcohol consumption in Izhevsk: 15 years later. Submitted to Alcohol and Alcoholism
Data
Dataset for Korotayev A., Khaltourina D., Shishkina A., Issaev L. Non-beverage alcohol consumption in Izhevsk: 15 years later. Submitted to Alcohol and Alcoholism
Preprint
Full-text available
The weakening of the world economy, as well as the economies of high-income OECD countries, in comparison with the 2000s and even the 2010s, fits perfectly into the concept of a more crisis-depressive phase of the development in the global economy in the downswing phases of Kondratieff waves. Accordingly, at the moment we are experiencing the downs...
Article
The authors quantitatively analyse the long-term dynamics of technological progress from 40,000 BCE and offer projections through the 22nd century. We provide one method to measure technological progress over that time period, using a simple hyperbolic equation, yt = C/(t0 – t), as our model. We define yt as the technological growth rate, measured...
Preprint
Full-text available
This article revisits the prediction, made in 2010, that the 2010–2020 decade would likely be a period of growing instability in the United States and Western Europe (Turchin 2010). This prediction was based on a computational model that quantified in the USA such structural-demographic forces for instability as popular immiseration, intraelite com...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter discusses in some detail the possibility of the Singularity being a product of biased human perception described by the Weber–Fechner law. It is shown that though the Weber–Fechner effect can produce series with a hyperbolic shape, the hyperbolic acceleration pattern with the twenty-first century Singularity detected in Panov and Modis...
Chapter
Full-text available
This introductory chapter discusses the overall place of the twenty-first-century Singularity within the overall Big History. It is shown that to place the accelerating trend of complexity in the context of Big History, we need to distinguish the two forms (arms) of megaevolution so far in the universe. The first arm of evolution is the deceleratin...
Chapter
This concluding chapter summarizes major findings of the present collective monograph. It traces the emergence of accelerating innovation rates through history and the major historical transformations through the evolution of life, humans, and civilization. It draws on the concepts from physics and evolutionary biology to offer potential models of...
Chapter
Full-text available
The idea that in the near future we should expect “the Singularity” has become quite popular recently, primarily thanks to the activities of Google technical director in the field of machine training Raymond Kurzweil and his book The Singularity Is Near (2005). It is shown that the mathematical analysis of the series of events (described by Kurzwei...
Chapter
Full-text available
In this chapter, we consider the process of technological progress presenting one of the options for measuring its speed throughout the entire historical process. We find that the general dynamics of accelerating technological growth over the past 40 thousand years can be described with amazing accuracy (R² = 0.99) using the following simplest hype...
Book
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This book introduces a 'Big History' perspective to understand the acceleration of social, technological and economic trends towards a near-term singularity, marking a radical turning point in the evolution of our planet. It traces the emergence of accelerating innovation rates through global history and highlights major historical transformations...
Article
Full-text available
The article provides a systematic review of the main, existing methodologies of the global monitoring and forecasting of socio-political destabilization. A systematic analysis of the correlation between the forecasts of destabilization generated by these systems and the actual levels of destabilization observed in the respective countries has been...
Preprint
Full-text available
The causes, consequences, and timing of the rise of moralizing religions in world history have been the focus of intense debate. Progress has been limited by the availability of quantitative data to test competing theories, by divergent ideas regarding both predictor and outcomes variables, and by differences of opinion over methodology. To address...
Article
Full-text available
The chiefdom concept is one of the most productive in social anthropology and political evolution. It helps to deeply understand the process of complication of society's structure and the development path from stateless society to early states. However, even when states spread everywhere, chiefdoms still remained political and administrative actors...
Article
The article analyzes relative deprivation as a possible factor of sociopolitical instability during the Arab Spring events using the methods of correlation and multiple regression analysis. In this case, relative deprivation is operationalized in two ways: (a) through the indicator of subjective feeling of happiness on the eve of the events of the...