Question
Asked 17th Jan, 2014

It is estimated that in 2040 the world population will be 9,038,687,000. Will the world economy be able to support this population?

According to the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations, it is estimated that in the year 2040, the world population will reach 9,038,687,000.
Will the world economy be able to support this population?

Most recent answer

1st Feb, 2014
Tomy Patzelt
Czech Telecommunication Office
@ Hussin, Jetty
TY for your appreciation, but these sci-fi books werent cause of my remark.
I just tried to access value chains and food/water chains from various angles without finding any certain solution. To my liking too much existing and predictable problems depend on unpredictable currently non-existing or low-effective inventions.
We have now 2014 and it means 26 yrs to make all missing inventions and to make them usable for practical life.
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Popular Answers (1)

24th Jan, 2014
Louis Brassard
Hussein,
The most important tehnology we urgently need is the technology to reach global political agreement for the global common good.
4 Recommendations

All Answers (23)

19th Jan, 2014
Jorge Morales Pedraza
Morales Project Consulting
Your question is not easy to respond. The biology, chemistry and physics of the earth are imperfectly understood. It is not possible to predict what some human choices may lead to, or whether some future environmental choices may be beyond human control. What is clear for many experts is that every additional billion people constrain further the choices available for life on earth, human and otherwise. Continued rapid human population growth makes it harder and more costly to solve all of the problems. Some experts predicted that the peak in the population growth will be reached in 2050 and after that date the population will start to decrease until 2100. Others considered that the population could reach 9-10 billion people by 2050 and around 13-14 billion by 2100.
However, there is one point that is largely forgotten when accounting for population growth and the demand of food production and that is efficiency. With current agricultural surplus of developed nations the world can feed the growing population. Western nations already produce twice the amount of food that they need, or 3-4 times the necessary amount, if the world account for the crops fed the livestock for the production of animal products. Only 44% of the total global food production is what the world actually feed at the moment.
4 Recommendations
24th Jan, 2014
Roberto - Minadeo
Conselho Nacional de Des. Científico e Tecnológico-CNPq
As noted above, the issue is quite complex. However, I think it important to evaluate that repeatedly was predicted that natural resources such as oil, would end in the coming decades. What happened? New discoveries, and new forms of energy. Of course there will be drop in oil production at some future time. However, the growth of new sources of energy (solar, wind, biomass, oilsands, etc.) has been impressive. Ie only focusing on the energy field, I see no reason to fear at this population growth. China is an amazing example: its enormous population lives in an area with deserts and various other geographical limitations, and has shown tremendous growth in various social indicators.
2 Recommendations
24th Jan, 2014
Hussin Jose Hejase
Independent - TAAU
The continuous development of technology specially in the year 2040 (which is much faster than either the population growth or decrease in earth resources) may lead to new resources specially that genetic engineering will be highly developed and will contribute to many new alternative resources (By that time point the accompanying controversies would be solved), the birth rates are less, and not to forget human nature love for wars.
By the year 2040, most probably colonization of outer space would be possible and new resources would also been found...
Moreover, two other scenarios present themselves: the first, the human race came to its senses and think green and have agreed on sustainable development of the earth!
The second scenario will present earth with few humans as a result of nuclear holocaust!
So, there, the problems are solved.
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24th Jan, 2014
Ziad O. Abu-Faraj
Nice forecast Hussin!
24th Jan, 2014
Louis Brassard
Hussein,
The most important tehnology we urgently need is the technology to reach global political agreement for the global common good.
4 Recommendations
24th Jan, 2014
Hussin Jose Hejase
Independent - TAAU
Very true Louis. Such case comes under the notion that Humans will come to their senses and adopt sustainable development policies which include capitalizing on new technologies use for peaceful purposes and the betterment of all stakeholders on earth.
1 Recommendation
24th Jan, 2014
Jetty Ramadevi
What a question?
People who might have existed after the creation of life on earth would have been thought the same thing then. Are we not comfortable now? Technology development taking man to Moon and Mars, searching life on other planets too.
I believe one thing Nature takes care of herself, if human starts develop things for their comforts Nature gives a hard blow and ask why you guys are disturbing me oust out things in the form of Tsunamis and typhoons. I read very recently in US temp.s going down as lowest as possible at the same time in Australia the other side of globe is baking with highest temp.s . Why all these happening? Population explosion, still we are coping with advent of knowledge. As long as we crave for comforts we do have to face this kind of odds. Global warming, sea-level raises, Ozone layer depletion etc.etc. Balancing is always required to manage things otherwise catastrophe. Development goes ahead and ahead at one point it has to stop because nothing would be there to do anything, like decrease of natural resources, some of the guys suggested drop in certain things oil etc. Probably that takes more and more time another 2,3 or more generations pass away. Perhaps we would not be here to discuss that matter on RG, we should ask our grand and great grand children to post things with some ESP knowledge to reach us.
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25th Jan, 2014
Hussin Jose Hejase
Independent - TAAU
Nicely put Jetty. I agree that the earth has its own healing patterns! But I wish that those pattern do no include terrible angry natural responses.
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25th Jan, 2014
Ziad O. Abu-Faraj
Nice argument Louis, Jetty, and Hussin!
25th Jan, 2014
Ziad O. Abu-Faraj
Isn't human greed a major factor in this equation?
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25th Jan, 2014
Hussin Jose Hejase
Independent - TAAU
Human greed is always a factor that with time leads to negative consequences, but worst is a nation's greed to use common resources among many for its own benefits and not giving any attention to the long tern consequences!
2 Recommendations
25th Jan, 2014
Jetty Ramadevi
Well said Ziad n Hussain.
Both are right. Yes we are greedy in most of the aspects, we look for our convenience at the same time we do have to take care of things for balancing. Then I believe at least we can manage certain calamities to some extent. Every nation should think of recycling otherwise oceans, rivers, empty places are becoming dumping yards with unnecessary junk creating dangers for aquatic and terrestrial life too. Once we start using things carefully certainly we need not face any problem. Actually the discussion topic was economy vs population. Main item is food, I see most of the people waste food items honestly speaking that wastage would become a meal per day those who starve for food. Some times I watch pathetic stories in CNN channel world untold stories, where people in some African countries eat sand by mixing with water. Such a pathetic conditions. Save them!!
My suggestion for everybody rather than making waste eat how much you need, that saves in all aspects. You can save money and that food is your next day's food. In fact one of our Indian Prime Mister mentioned people all over the country observe fasting per day that is good for health as well as tons of food items would be at reserve so that we can avoid shortage of things for a while. Appears silly but a fact in deed.
Hope nations take care of things in all aspects so that becomes help for world humanity of future generations.
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25th Jan, 2014
Ziad O. Abu-Faraj
Perfectly said Jetty!
I couldn't agree more.
Backed up with a strong will, it all takes 194 ministers of economy around the world to do the fix!
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26th Jan, 2014
Louis Brassard
In 1998 before the economic crisis, the price of oil was going up pushing up the price of basic cereal up because a lot of corn and other crops in order to transform them into ethanol for car. Driving a car with ethanol for a week uses more cereal than one need to eat for a year. Prices of basic food more than double in poorer country pushing the poorer neer starvation and what save them is the 1998 economic crisis and the following reduction of oil. We can produce a lot of food but if the economic system feed the cars prior to feed people because there is more money to feed the cars then we have a problem.
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26th Jan, 2014
Ziad O. Abu-Faraj
Louis - You reminded me of the Oil-for-Food Program that was established for Iraq by the United Nations in 1995 under the UN Security Council Resolution 986. Normal people back then were starving at the price of oil !!!
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1st Feb, 2014
Tomy Patzelt
Czech Telecommunication Office
There is probably some limit on what number of people can be supported by Earth' natural resources. This limit can be extended by development however it is not infinite.
Thus, the more important question might be what will happen if world economy and/or Earth's resources are not able to support population in given time. Even dry surface isnt unlimited and there is no time to change into fish again.
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1st Feb, 2014
Hussin Jose Hejase
Independent - TAAU
Good question Tomy. So, your question brings back in memory to a science fiction movie where recycling human corpses was the solution for hunger, that is, this movie made in the seventies or eighties manufacture Corpses plus additives to biscuits! And here you go. To make things more drastic, in this film water was a scarcity provided by coupons and people bathed with very fine sand.
Are we approaching such a stage fast?
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1st Feb, 2014
Jetty Ramadevi
Yes what Tomy mentioned is correct.
Hussin after reading of your comments I am remembering saint and astronomer in the 17th century in my country and my state AP, Pothuluru Veerabrahmendra Swamy (you get information in Google too), future predictor mentioned exactly what happens in future wrote a book about that "Kalagnanam". We watched practically what happened in politics too. Hussin telling about movie eating of corps, the Saint mentioned the same at one day people eat corps as well fight for that means we can imagine the situation how notorious it would be, God save Earth!!
2 Recommendations
1st Feb, 2014
Ziad O. Abu-Faraj
Under what circumstances would civilized humans start to behave instinctively primitive?
1st Feb, 2014
Jetty Ramadevi
Interesting question Ziad. Probably demand and competition among organisms create situations to behave like that.
Do you believe if I say there are people who eat human meat? There was news about this some years back I come across in some country people like to eat human fetus.
I talk about my country where a person made struggle for independence basing on Truth (Satyagraha) and “Ahimsa Paramo Dharma" is a Sanskrit phrase (Non-violence is the ultimate dharma) popularized by Mahatma Gandhi and is often repeated by many leaders today to demonstrate the universality of Ahimsa. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahatma_Gandhi
Amazing thing to come across the following in the same country "Noida serial murders", children start disappearing at last after investigation they found "Suspicions of organ trade and cannibalism" and "Suspicions of child pornography racket", of course it is proved. when I see this kind of things think where the society is going? Are we transforming from civilization to barbarianism!
The moment we read we think of cannibalism, but interpret in this way. Killing does not mean by stabbing or shooting, even you speak in such a way the other person humiliated that is also one kind of killing a person mentally. Probably that is also correct. Recently one person interpreted some of the items mentioned by the Saint, exactly what he mentioned was correct.
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