Discussion
Started 1st May, 2020
  • Tung Wah Eastern Hospital

How to define ending of COVID-19 local endemic?

It's 99 days since the first case of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, and we are welcoming the 5th days of 0 new cases of COVID-19 following a week of <10 cases per day.
How should we define the end of a local endemic?
How long should the latent period be defined?
When is it safe to resume social activities?
Should territory wide screening of asymptomatic people be done before declaring the end of endemic?

Most recent answer

13th Sep, 2021
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski University in Warsaw
The SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic is a global epidemic. On a global scale, the state of the pandemic in March 2020 was announced by the World Health Organization. Therefore, this organization could declare the end of the pandemic. On the other hand, the end of the epidemic on a regional, national or local scale can be announced by national central institutions of the health care system, including the ministries of health, in agreement with the government. In order to be able to declare the end of the epidemic on a national, regional or local scale, it is necessary to have a relatively large decrease in the number of new coronavirus infections, a decrease in the number of people seriously ill with Covid-19 disease and deaths caused by this disease. The decrease in Coronavirus infections and in sick people should be sustained in a longer period, i.e. min. several months, taking into account the periods of possible occurrence of subsequent epidemic waves caused by new variants of the Coronavirus and occurring in other regions of the world. In addition, an important factor that may be taken into account in the event of declaring the end of a pandemic on a global scale or an epidemic on a regional scale will be the level of vaccination of citizens with highly effective vaccines against Coronavirus and the level of social, collective immunity of the society achieved thanks to these vaccines.
Best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
1 Recommendation

All replies (12)

1st May, 2020
Michael Issigonis
Brandon University
New Zealand defined it as the "end of community transmission". I guess, no more passing the virus from one person to another, but probably some new cases can pop up when someone with the virus comes into the country.
1st May, 2020
Alex N Ishmatov
I believe that COVID-19 as most other respiratory infections has weather depended character. Air pollution, weather/climatic conditions, and specific geometrical structure of upper airways play a major role in the seasonality of COVID-19 and other resp infections. The threshold climatic conditions are // T>22C / RH < 80% // - these conditions determine enhanced deposition of inhaled air pollutants in the airways due to supersaturation effects (and enhanced condensational growth). I think and believe that these threshold climatic conditions define the minimal risk of COVID-19. Please find the information in :
and
1st May, 2020
Isam Alkhalifawi
University of Baghdad
After a million people die, the virus will become less virulent and gradually end.
6th May, 2020
Valerii Samsonkin
State University of Infrastructure and Technologies, Ukraine, Kyiv
There are 2 options for the development of events. Option 1: COVID-19 is the development of a scenario of the behavior of states in a global crisis. This is necessary to obtain the behavior skills of people and humanity as a whole. Then the pandemic will end by order of the authors of the experiment. 2nd option: COVID-19 is an unexpected and new event. The gradual ending will depend on the standard of living of people and the state of the economy.
1 Recommendation
7th May, 2020
Herman John Jeggels
Dr Jeggels Medical Homeopathic Practice
The summary of the bloomberg article spells it out. Herd immunity with its unfortunate 'collateral damage' as no one has any immunity to this novel pathogen, and secondly, immunization, which is still a long way off. Thus, prevention is better than cure, but there is no cure, except the above, besides for all the supportive treatment provided.
2nd Oct, 2020
Sunny Chi Lik Au
Tung Wah Eastern Hospital
President Donald Trump test positive for Covid-19
This is definitely not the end of the COVID-19 endemic
1 Recommendation
23rd Jul, 2021
Muhammad Yousuf
King Abdulaziz Medical City (KAMC), King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences (KSAU-HS)
NO END still in sight for COVID-19 pandemic
Ending of COVID-19 pandemic will be defined by no new cases of this disease locally and all over the world as was the case with SMALLPOX. However, end of a pandemic depends on what definition you use (1).
However, COVID-19 pandemic is only showing less deaths due to combined effects of large number of people who have either recovered after having had COVID-19 illness (asymptomatic or symptomatic) and increasingly more and more people getting COVID-19 vaccines with every passing day.
Despite emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants, although number of new cases are still high, most of new cases are less severely affected than early on in the COVID-19 pandemic resulting in less hospitalizations and fewer deaths.
1 Recommendation
13th Sep, 2021
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski University in Warsaw
The SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic is a global epidemic. On a global scale, the state of the pandemic in March 2020 was announced by the World Health Organization. Therefore, this organization could declare the end of the pandemic. On the other hand, the end of the epidemic on a regional, national or local scale can be announced by national central institutions of the health care system, including the ministries of health, in agreement with the government. In order to be able to declare the end of the epidemic on a national, regional or local scale, it is necessary to have a relatively large decrease in the number of new coronavirus infections, a decrease in the number of people seriously ill with Covid-19 disease and deaths caused by this disease. The decrease in Coronavirus infections and in sick people should be sustained in a longer period, i.e. min. several months, taking into account the periods of possible occurrence of subsequent epidemic waves caused by new variants of the Coronavirus and occurring in other regions of the world. In addition, an important factor that may be taken into account in the event of declaring the end of a pandemic on a global scale or an epidemic on a regional scale will be the level of vaccination of citizens with highly effective vaccines against Coronavirus and the level of social, collective immunity of the society achieved thanks to these vaccines.
Best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
1 Recommendation

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  • Deepthi BallaDeepthi Balla
Esteemed members of Research Gate
I have been wondering for many years and even now about hypothesis testing, which is not able to produce practical results. Just accepting some proposition or rejecting it would not be right. Ironically the research which we do here is heavily dependent on it. I am starting the discussion so that you would provide insights into the issue.
My point is this. When I was doing graduation in statistics, I have been instructed to set up the Null Hypothesis as a statement of " no significant difference". If the calculated value is less than the tabulated value, then accept the null hypothesis. If not, reject the null hypothesis. But in research reviews and some lectures, I have seen the opposite. If I just ignore the null hypothesis statement and just take a directive hypothesis where I assume that there is a significant difference between the variable under study as my primary hypothesis, would the same rule apply? I mean, if calculated<tabulated then we have to accept the primary hypothesis, which is assumed to be significant. Then I have to reject it if the opposite comes true. Is this right?
To bypass this issue, I have come across with bayseian and is very clear. But I do not have a model to follow in teaching students.
So kindly edify the correct way of teaching hypothesis testing as is still the predominant practice of doing psychological research.
If possible refer me some free resources of teaching research methodology to psychology teachers. Unless teachers of psychology trained well in this issue, genuine research would not come forth.

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