Question
Asked 30 October 2012
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Decisions with probability and fuzzy logic (degree of truth) together.

if A has a probability of p_a = 0.6 and it has a with a degree of truth ma = 0.4; B has p_b =0.4 and has a degree of truth mb 0.6, which will be chosen by a rational agent, A or B ?
A and B independent....

All Answers (3)

Rafael Peñaloza
Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca
It depends on your desired semantics and application. Usually uncertainty and vagueness should not interfere eachother.
Pedro Terán
University of Oviedo
I don't think it makes sense to give A and B a probability and a degree of truth simultaneously. The probability of A is the probability of A being the case, which already presupposes that A is either the case or not the case, only we do not know which. But a degree of truth presupposes that A could be the case, not be the case, or be in a borderline situation which is neither fully the case nor fully not-the-case.
If A has a degree of truth of .4 then you are saying that A is neither the case (degree of truth 1) nor not-the-case (degree of truth 0), in direct contradiction with the basic assumption of traditional probability theory that events either happen or not happen.
2 Recommendations
Hemanta K. Baruah
Gauhati University
Pedro is correct. Probability and fuzziness are two different concepts. They must not be juxtaposed.

Similar questions and discussions

Can the probabilities of two mutually exclusive events be quantitatively compared to two or more other mutually exclusive events?
Question
3 answers
  • Ravi VissapragadaRavi Vissapragada
Forgetting the context for a second, the overall question is how to compare data that is expressed in a probability.
Scenario 1: Let us say there are two events A and B. The rules are:
- A (union) B = 1
- A (intersection) B = 0
- Probability of A or B is dependent on a dollar amount. Depending on the amount, the probability either A or B happens changes. For e.g. @20,000 chance of A is 80%, then B is 20%.
Scenario 2: we have A, B, and C.
- A (union) B (union) C = 1
- A (intersection) B or C = 0
- Probability dependent on dollar amount. Same as above.
- A and B in scenarios 1 and 2 are same but their probabilities of happening are changed due to the introduction of C.
QUESTION: How can I compare the probability of the events in these two scenarios?
Possible solutions I was thinking of:
1) A is X times as likely to happen as B, then I could plot all events as a factor of B on the same graph to get a sense of how likely all events are compared to a common denominator (event B)
2) Could also get a "cumulative" probability of each event as area under the curve and express as a % or ratio. So if A occupies 80% of the area under the curve, then B should be 20%, so overall A is four times as likely, and similarly in scenario 2.
3) Maybe the way to compare is to take the complement of each event separately, and express as a percentage at each point and graph them.
Any help is greatly appreciated. Please refer to attached pic for some visual understanding of the question as well. I am making a lot of assumptions, which are not true (as concerned with the graphs etc), but theoretically, I am interested in knowing. Thank you!

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