foresight

Purpose – This paper aims to present an assessment framework which captures the essential characteristics and holistic success factors for disruptive innovation based on the original theory of Christensen, a number of clarifications as reported in the literature and a study of known, successful cases in the literature. Design/methodology/approach – The framework was designed based on the improved understanding of disruptive innovation challenges and on the holistic consideration of innovation as a dynamic process. It consists of structured questions which could be used to guide detailed data collection and analysis needed to answer the key questions which constitute the assessment framework. They are grouped under market positioning, technology and other favourable drivers. Findings – A simple yet comprehensive assessment framework for disruptive innovation has been developed. Two of the known successful cases, namely the steel minimill of Nucor and the 3.5 inch disk drive of Conner/Seagate, were presented in more detail to illustrate the use of this systematic framework in assessing the success potential of these cases of disruptive innovations in either the low‐end or new markets. A third and fairly new example, that of the limited mobile phone system/product of UTStarcom, was then presented to illustrate a case where the framework revealed reasons for potential failure. A fourth example of Google's web‐based office applications then illustrated how the framework might be used to study the disruptive potential of a new product. Originality/value – This paper enables a more accurate and systematic assessment of disruptive innovation. The framework also has the potential to be further developed into a systematic tool for answering the question of whether the disruptive innovation theory could indeed be used to provide ex ante prediction of the success of a new disruptive innovation.

Mobile communication has grown out of its original scope and scale. Mobile operators have played a significant role in this phenomenon. Since the mobile operator business is highly regulated, the effects of regulation on the industry have been analyzed. The potential effects in the years up to 2015 are also considered. The aim of this paper is to discuss the possibilities of a futures-oriented method - i.e. the Delphi method, to estimate the effect of regulation on the mobile operator business. The challenge is that the method was originally created to assess experts' opinions about the course of development of a certain technology or phenomenon in the future and then, by using a scenario technique, to draw conclusions about its possible futures. Now the Delphi method is also being used to estimate past development, i.e. experts' opinions of the causes and effects of laws and other regulations in the past few decades. The paper forms a part of a larger study, the aim of which is to analyze the effects of changes in the regulatory framework for the mobile operator industry in Finland. According to this research the ultimate goals of the regulator, set as early as in the middle of the 1980s, have been actualized: In Finland there are several competing nationwide mobile operators and the use of mobile phones is cheap compared to many other countries.

The Keys to the White House is a historically based model that has forecast well ahead of time the winners of every presidential election from 1984 through 2004. The theory behind the Keys is that presidential election results turn primarily on the performance of the party controlling the White House, and that politics as usual by the challenging candidate will have no impact on results. In this update of his earlier Keys article in Foresight, Allan Lichtman discusses why the Keys model predicts a Democratic Party takeover of the White House in 2008. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007

Using findings from empirical-based comparisons, the author presents nine generalizations that can improve forecast accuracy. These are often ignored by organizations, so that attention to them offers substantial opportunities for gain. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005

While considerable attention has been paid to the measurement of forecast accuracy for individual items at particular points in time, issues around an aggregated forecast-accuracy metric and its tracking over time still present opportunities for discussion. Jim Hoover talks about why organizations have neglected the task of tracking forecast accuracy and offers a step-by-step guide for getting back on the track. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

Stephan Kolassa and Wolfgang Schütz provide a careful look at the ratio MAD/Mean, which has been proposed as a substitute metric for the MAPE in the case of intermittent demand series. They explain how MAD/Mean can be viewed as a weighted mean of absolute percentage errors and thus as a weighted alternative to MAPE. They describe several advantages of MAD/Mean to the MAPE including applicability to inventory decisions, absence of bias in method selection, and suitability for series with intermittent as well as near-zero demands. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007

Prevailing wisdom has it that campaigns don’t matter when it comes to forecasting U.S. presidential elections; the incorporation of direct campaign measures into statistical forecasting models does not appear to improve forecasting accuracy. Richard Nadeau and Michael Lewis-Beck now challenge that assertion, based on consideration of the quality and clarity of a candidate’s campaign. They find small but statistically significant campaign effects that can affect the outcome in an otherwise close election. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012

In their ongoing investigation into corporate forecasting practices, Robert Fildes and Paul Goodwin have uncovered evidence of excessive use of judgmental adjustment to statistical forecasts. In this report, they document the extent of the problem within four large companies, explore the motivations that lead business forecasters to this sometimes counter-productive behavior, and offer a series of recommendations to ensure that forecast adjustments are made for the right reasons. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007

With the November 2008 U.S. presidential election looming, Randall and Alfred describe the enduring forecasting models that have been created by economists and political scientists for predicting the results of this quadrennial ritual. The most stable models since 1996 have consistently forecast the election winner, with an average error of less than 3%. While not all of the players have issued their forecasts for this year’s final vote, the models suggest that the outlook for the Republican Party is negative. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008

Many studies have pointed to the possibility of substantial benefits from collaboration among supply-chain partners, including information sharing - one form of which is the sharing of forecast information (FIS). In this article, Mohammad Ali and John Boylan report the substantial and specific benefits of FIS found in their study of two large companies: a European supermarket and a U.S. hardware manufacturer. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010

Game playing has been defined as the intentional manipulation of a forecasting process to gain personal, group, or corporate advantage. And the consequences can be severe. John Mello provides a fascinating description of the games forecasters can play, identifying the organizational environments that can foster game playing, and recommending a variety of policies to discourage continuation of the practice. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

Paul Goodwin reports on recent research into the theory that combining forecasts from different methods or sources can result in greater forecast accuracy. He cites studies by George Kapetanios, as well as several other researchers, to support the conclusion that "combining forecasts is certainly worth a long, close look." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

Spare parts generate high sales margins and improve customer loyalty by extending the useful life of base products. Forecasting and managing the spare-parts business is challenging, however, due in no small measure to short life cycles and long support life for the base products. At Hewlett-Packard, the Replacement Parts Business (RPB) was challenged by shortages that drove customers to competing parts suppliers. To deal with this threat, an HP team refined the company’s forecasting methodology. This paper describes the business issues involved and the forecasting processes developed. Of particular methodological interest is their approach to (a) choosing between monthly and quarterly forecasts, (b) adjusting the historical data for price/promotion effects, and (c) combining regression and time-series forecasts. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

Paul Goodwin’s latest Hot New Research Column is very appropriate for the summer season. He reports on a recent paper by Haiyan Song and Gang Li, who reviewed research into tourism forecasting published in 121 articles since 2000. Paul also refers to another recently published paper by Sedat Yuksel, who describes a method for forecasting monthly demand at a five-star hotel in Ankara. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008

Authors Rob Hyndman and Andrey Kostenko discuss the bare minimum data requirements for fitting three common types of seasonal models: regression with seasonal dummies, exponential smoothing, and ARIMA. Achieving the requisite minimum numbers, however, does not ensure adequate estimates of seasonality. The amount of additional data required depends on the amount of noise (random variation) in the data. Unfortunately, there are no simple rules about sample size, and the authors note that published tables on sample size requirements are overly simplified. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007

In their previous Foresight article (Winter 2009), Alec Finney and Martin Joseph described the Forecasting Mantra, the elements of which guide the proper creation and presentation of the forecast. Now they employ the Mantra as a basis for an audit of an organization’s forecasting performance. The audit reveals problems with the process, enables the prioritizing of new investments in process improvement, and helps a company avoid overspending. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011

Many of us make judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts. But do these improve accuracy? Paul Goodwin explains when you should avoid the temptation to adjust and shows how the accuracy of your interventions can be improved. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005

Forecasting recessions is fraught with difficulties: we never know if we are in recession until long after one has started. This makes it all the more important to try to predict in advance the likelihood of recession, so that businesses can plan accordingly. Peter takes us inside the economist's crystal ball, identifying key indicators of economic recession and how they can be combined into a predictive model. The model forecasts a difficult 2009. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

Purpose – To shape a futures agenda for future executives. Design/methodology/approach – Identifies and examines five future leadership foci: globality, technology, talent development and retention, innovation, and professional development and training. Findings – The position of CEO needs to be reinvented and to move in the direction of hybrid competencies. Originality/value – All future executives will have to be futurists and learning leaders.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to compare the projections of future war by a talented illustrator with the true materialization of conflicts. Design/methodology/approach The paper traces Albert Robida's sequential narrative, using a selection of imaginative pictures to demonstrate the artist's range of anticipation. Findings The paper finds that the illustrator's visualization proved to be uncanny in its accuracy of projection. Originality/value Robida managed to be not only well ahead of his time; the accuracy of his foresight was largely exact from the point of view of feasible technology.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the reasons, especially the assertions about the future, given by the US administration under President Reagan, to justify the decision to attack and invade the Caribbean island of Grenada. Design/methodology/approach The methodology is analysis of existing records and reports on the assertions, events, and decisions leading to the invasion. Findings The Reagan administration gave three main reasons for the invasion. They claimed that Americans on Grenada, particularly the students attending the St George's University Medical School, would be harmed from continuing social disruption on Grenada; that the militarization of Grenada was intended as a means for the future export of terrorism or revolution to its Caribbean neighbors; and that the planned international airport at Point Salines was intended to be a future Soviet‐Cuban military base. Each was false. Research limitations/implications Decision making includes assumptions about the future and invites the use of foresight. Such foresight, of course, can be presumptively true and, thus, useful. But also it can be wrong, sometimes deliberately manipulated, leading to wrongheaded actions and devastating consequences. Practical implications An analysis of the 1983 American invasion of Grenada illustrates the power of authority to distort the truth and corrupt morality, processes that re‐occurred 20 years later with much greater consequences in the case of the 2003 American‐led invasion of Iraq. Originality/value The case study of the American invasion of Grenada can be used by decision makers and others to improve future decision‐making situations. Before doing violence to other people, we need to ask what violence we are doing to truth.

In my last column I talked about the difficulties futurists have with the bottom line. This time, I want to explore the reasons why. A primary reason, I'll submit, is that practitioners of foresight are 'different' from the corporate citizens they serve. Take this personally, because that is how it's meant.

Forewarned is forearmed, they say. Yet there are still those who think the Millennium Bug went away on its own. In those circumstances, how can futures studies ever convince government and industry of its worth? Maybe with a bit of old-fashioned marketing, offering tailored solutions and measurable benefits.

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyze the future-orientation of the Dutch innovation system and formulate recommendations to improve it. Design/methodology/approach - The approach takes the form of in-depth interviews with Dutch experts who are sufficiently independent to formulate relevant, interesting, and deviating opinions. Findings - Dutch managers are quite reluctant to look at the future. They seem to favor the short term above the long term. Research limitations/implications - Consulting additional experts might yield more and more validated results. Practical implications - Dutch companies should do more about turning a future vision into concrete decisions and actions. Social implications - It is necessary to appoint a specific Minister for Innovation and the Dutch government should support the entire innovation process and not just the beginning. Originality/value - This is the first analysis of the future-orientation of the Dutch innovation system.

Purpose – To present the degree to which futurists (inadvertently perhaps) encourage future avoidance or deflection. Design/methodology/approach – Identifies instances and examples of future deflection and avoidance attributable to the misplaced zeal of forecasters. Findings – Proposes five strategies futurists can use to turn avoidance into acceptance. Originality/value – To call attention to the negative impacts of forecasters and forecasts on audiences and to suggest ways to eliminate or limit such audience alienation.