Vienna Yearbook of Population Research

Published by Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Print ISSN: 1728-4414
Publications
In a hierarchical organisation of stable size the annual intake is strictly determined by the number of deaths and a statutory retirement age (if there is one). In this paper we reconstruct the population of the Austrian Academy of Sciences from 1847 to 2005. For the Austrian Academy of Sciences we observe a shift of its age distribution towards older ages, which on the one hand is due to rising life expectancy, i.e., a rising age at death, as well as to an increased age at entry on the other hand. Therefore the number of new entrants has been fluctuating considerably-especially reflecting several statutory changes-and the length of tenure before reaching the age limit has declined during the second half of the last century.Based on alternative scenarios of the age distribution of incoming members-including a young, an old, the 'current' and a mixed-age model-we then project the population of the Austrian Academy and its ageing forward in time. Our results indicate that the 'optimum policy' would be to elect either young or old aged new members.
 
The number of countries experiencing very low fertility has been rising in recent years, garnering increasing academic, political and media attention. There is now widespread academic agreement that the postponement of fertility is a major contributing factor in the very low levels of fertility that have occurred, and yet most policy discussions have been devoted to increasing the numbers of children women have. We discuss factors in three institutions-the educational system, the labour market and the housing market-that may inadvertently have led to childbearing postponement. We highlight important components of the timing of childbearing, including its changing place within the transition to adulthood across countries and the significance of the demands of childbearing versus childrearing. Using illustrations from Europe, North America, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, we argue that the following all lead to younger childbearing: 1) an open education system whereby it is relatively easy to return to school after having dropped out for a while; 2) a shorter, smoother, easier school-to-work transition; 3) easier re-entry into the labour market after having taken time out for childrearing or any other reason; 4) greater capability of integrating childrearing into a career; 5) easier ability to obtain a mortgage with a moderately small down payment, moderately low interest rate and a long time period over which to repay the loan; and 6) easier ability to rent a dwelling unit at an affordable price. Conversely, reversing any or all of these factors would lead, other things being equal, to postponement of childbearing.
 
Reliable data show that the Nicoyan region of Costa Rica is a hot spot of high longevity. A survival follow-up of 16,300 elderly Costa Ricans estimated a Nicoya death rate ratio (DRR) for males 1990-2011 of 0.80 (0.69-0.93 CI). For a 60-year-old Nicoyan male, the probability of becoming centenarian is seven times that of a Japanese male, and his life expectancy is 2.2 years greater. This Nicoya advantage does not occur in females, is independent of socio-economic conditions, disappears in out-migrants and comes from lower cardiovascular (CV) mortality (DRR = 0.65). Nicoyans have lower levels of biomarkers of CV risk; they are also leaner, taller and suffer fewer disabilities. Two markers of ageing and stress-telomere length and dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate-are also more favourable. The Nicoya diet is prosaic and abundant in traditional foods like rice, beans and animal protein, with low glycemic index and high fibre content.
 
In this article we describe new research to investigate unintended pregnancies during the transition to adulthood. The Relationship Dynamics and Social Life (RDSL) study begins with a 60-minute in-person interview about family background and current relationship characteristics. At the conclusion of the interview, respondents are enrolled in an ongoing journal, which consists of a 5-minute survey via web or phone and occurs weekly for 2.5 years. We have enrolled over 1,000 young women in the study and have experienced excellent baseline response rates and high journal participation rates. Below we describe the limitations of past research on unintended pregnancy as a background for our study. Then we provide a detailed description of the study and its design strengths and weaknesses.
 
The article begins firstly with a short biography of Rudolf Goldscheid both as a fiction writer and as a private scholar mainly in the field of sociology. Secondly, his most important scientific conception, the Economy of Human Beings, and especially its consequences for population policy are discussed. Thirdly, the reception of Goldscheid's ideas by his contemporaries in Austria and Germany is outlined. It is shown that Goldscheid developed modern, stimulating and alternative ideas which were largely ignored by the established scientific community considering their importance. One reason for this might be that Goldscheid never worked out his conceptions in detail.
 
In this article we expand the analysis of the relationship between educational attainment, educational field and fertility by presenting the case of Greece. The importance is emphasised of both educational field and occupation, as well as their role in the diversity of fertility observed among women. Our empirical investigation is based on census data (2001) pertaining to childbearing, educational and employment histories of an entire cohort of Greek women born in the country in 1955-1959. The analysis indicates that in some cases, the field of education serves better as an indicator of a woman’s potential reproductive behaviour than the educational level attained. In general, the results show some similarities with those already obtained for other countries. In particular, women educated in teaching and health care have lower permanent childlessness at any educational level than any other major grouping. Our results confirm the findings of other studies that higher education does not systematically result in higher childlessness. Among the various factors related to an educational system, which may influence the relationship between education and childlessness, we emphasise the association of education with the labour market and mainly the distinction between employment opportunities in the public and in the private sector for highly educated women. We find that, in several cases, a woman’s profession tends to modify the pattern of childlessness by educational field.
 
Birth expectations questions in the General Household Survey 1979-2007. 
Responses to fertility intentions question 1979-2005/7. Women aged <45, weighted. Great Britain, GHS 1979-2005/7  
The paper uses a time series of repeated rounds of the General Household Survey in Great Britain to study uncertainty in fertility intentions. We show that a substantial minority of women are uncertain in their expectations about future childbearing. A comparison of reported uncertainty in GHS rounds 1979-1990 with 1991-2007 reveals that the estimated level of uncertainty is influenced by question format. At the individual level, uncertainty varies largely with demographic status and life stage-age, partnership status, parity and time since previous birth. Evidence from qualitative and quantitative studies, particularly in relation to pregnancy intentions, reinforces the reality of uncertainty about reproductive prospects. We suggest that the measurement of fertility intentions needs improvement. A new theoretical approach to fertility intentions is outlined in brief.
 
The continuous increase in life expectancy in developed countries is typically associated with an increase in the number of years in good health, whereas the number of years in bad health rather stagnates. At present relatively little is known about trends in educational disparities in mortality and particularly morbidity. By combining life tables from census follow-up with cross-sectional survey data on self-perceived health, we are able to estimate life expectancy as well as health expectancy differences between three educational groups in Austria in 1981-2006. All educational groups have substantially gained length and quality of life (both absolute and relative) during the last decades. Between medium and low educated females, we observe a significant decrease in the life expectancy difference, but a significant increase in the health expectancy difference. No significant changes in educational differences are found among males. The educational expansion of the population has shifted a large proportion of the population to lower-risk groups.
 
This article shows evidence regarding the educational attainment and inequality of educational opportunities in Brazil based on the grade progression probability method (GPP) between the years 1981 and 2008. We describe some stylised facts about the educational trajectory in Brazil, then we test two hypothesis suggested by Mare (1979, 1980). The first hypothesis states that the effect of social origins decreases along the educational trajectory. The second states that the educational expansion between two periods would reduce the inequality of educational opportunities in a given grade. Results show an increase in grade probability in nearly all grades, but this trend is most striking in the earlier stages. Educational stratification results show that Mare’s first hypothesis could not be corroborated. The second hypothesis was partly confirmed. We found a decline during the period analysed on the effect of household head’s education on grade progression at the earlier transitions. Furthermore, the selectivity pattern seemed to be transferred to later grade transitions.
 
Log-linear model on births: interaction of time, parity, marital status, citizenship and education in FVG (a) Married women, citizens of European Union
As of 1 January 2000 the government of the north-eastern Italian region of FriuliVenezia Giulia (FVG) introduced a substantial bonus at birth. The birth bonus was differentiated by marital status (only married women were eligible), citizenship (only Italians were eligible), and birth order (the bonus grew for the second and especially the third birth). Moreover, the income threshold below which one got the bonus was fairly high. As of 1 January 2004 a new government substantially reduced the bonus amount as well as the upper income limit. We evaluate if the bonuses handed out in FVG during those four years (2000-03) had a significant impact on fertility and abortion choices, verifying whether fertility changed in a different way for women more affected by the new legislation. We also test if the impact of monetary measures was higher for less educated women, because in Italy the relationship between income and education is very strong, and the bonus was practically the same irrespective of income level, hence its relative impact should be stronger in a poorer family. We use two different methods: First, we compare the trends of births and abortion ratios, separately for women affected and not affected by the monetary measures, looking at the differential changes. Second, using log-linear models, we measure if the interactions among time, parity, marital status, citizenship and education are statistically significant in the direction that follows our expectations. Our results show that for low educated (and hence also less rich) women with one or (especially) two and more children, birth trends did change after 1999, whereas the trends for childless women living in FVG and for low-educated women living in other Italian regions did not change.
 
Lifetime fertility intentions and realised fertility by age group, Flanders, 1991, women aged 20-39  
Short-term intentions of having a child in the next 3 years: distribution of answer categories by parity and level of education, Flanders, 1991, women aged 20-39  
Percentage of women aged 20-39 in 1991 having a child in the next 3 years by parity and level of education, Flanders  
Use of formal and informal child care arrangements by parity and level of education, Flanders, 1991, women aged 20-39  
Over the last decades the majority of European countries have witnessed fertility levels considerably below replacement. Particularly completed cohort fertility below two children per woman has raised concerns whether this trend corresponds to a decline of fertility intentions or represents a discrepancy between intended and realised fertility. Using data from the Fertility and Family Survey (FFS) conducted in 1991, we look at fertility intentions of women aged 20-39 in Flanders, documenting how intentions differ in terms of education of women and their partners, activity status and household position. For a larger group of women, we subsequently compare the effects of these characteristics on first-, second- and third-birth hazards in a prospective study based on longitudinal microdata from the 1991 and 2001 Belgian censuses. Our results indicate that lifetime fertility intentions in 1991 were above the replacement level, but also that the proportion of women having a child in the three-year period following the 1991 census is lower than the short-term intentions suggested in the FFS, particularly for first births. We find evidence of a positive educational gradient in both fertility intentions and birth hazards. For the highly educated, higher birth hazards are associated with a stronger attachment to the labour market (both before and after parenthood), homogamy to highly educated partners and more frequent uptake of (in)formal child care.
 
Demographic change, and more specifically ageing - defined here as the increase in the numbers of retired people - is one of the main challenges which European societies must face. Although this challenge cannot be reduced to the demographic factor alone, the construction of highly sophisticated models to analyse the social and economic impact of ageing introduces problems of data availability and comparability between EU Member States. The approach used in this paper to overcome these obstacles is different. A demography-based model (inspired by Gérard Calot's previous work) which uses some simplified assumptions, has been defined to assess the implications of ageing for the 27 EU countries over the period 2008-2050, and the relative impact of a series of alternative measures which could be implemented to counteract ageing. Though the analysis will focus on labour supply growth through foreign (extra-EU) immigration, other actions like the increase of the average effective age at which the labour market is left or employment rate growth will also be taken into account. Results show that immigration by itself cannot counteract ageing in the European Union as the number of immigrants needed to compensate for the increasing number of retired people would be so high that no country could assume the social and political costs of such a process. However, it can play a complementary role if it is combined with other measures contributing to both increase labour participation and delay retirement. This policy mix should be different in each EU Member State depending on the initial specific situation of each parameter of the model.
 
Like all modern societies Austria is faced with the process of demographic ageing. This paper concentrates on the question of how current policies in the field of old-age provision are being viewed and how Austrians envisage this issue for the future. Departing from an assessment of population ageing, results will be presented for the following topics: Attitudes towards the state's obligations and responsibilities in the field of social policies; Attitudes towards the future design of the pension system; Attitudes towards the transition into retirement and Preferences concerning the retirement age. The findings ultimately raise the central question of how, in view of the known economic and demographic conditions, employment and social policy can be better integrated in order to allow older employees to remain part of the workforce for a longer time.
 
Fertility differences in Europe are to a large extent due to parity progression after the first child. We therefore use data from the third round of the European Social Survey to investigate second-birth rates in 23 countries. Focusing on the role of education level and child care availability, we argue that child care provision is an important determinant of the opportunity cost of parity progression, particularly for highly educated women. We find that in countries where the highly educated have lower second birth rates than the less educated, total fertility tends to be low, and vice versa. In addition, the effect of the timing of the first child appears to be mediated by education level and child care availability: in countries where large proportions of young children attend formal child care, the more highly educated exhibit much higher second-birth rates, while child care availability does not affect parity progression for the less educated.
 
Contemporary research primarily in the West offers a strong case for the relationship between formal education and adult health; more education, measured either by level completed or years of schooling, is associated, often in a stepwise fashion, with lower levels of mortality, morbidity and disability. In this study, we attempt to provide a global assessment of that relationship as it pertains to adult disability, using sample data from 70 countries that participated in the World Health Survey. In each of five regions and some of the largest countries outside the West we find that an increase in formal education is associated with lower levels of disability in both younger and older adults. Using the regional education-based differentials and several estimates of growth in education levels, we project levels of disability to 2050 to estimate the health and human capital benefits obtained from investments in education. We find that considering education in the population projection consistently shows lower prevalence of disability in the future, and that scenarios with better education attainment lead to lower prevalence. It is apparent that the educational dividend identified in our projection scenario should be an important policy goal, which, if anything, should be more speedily advanced in those countries and regions that have the greatest need.
 
This study first presents an analytic framework that describes the chain of causation linking fertility to its multiple layers of determinants. Next, this framework is applied to analyse the causes of educational fertility differences in 30 sub-Saharan African countries using data from DHS surveys. The results demonstrate that education levels are positively associated with demand for and use of contraception and negatively associated with fertility and desired family size. In addition, there are differences by level of education in the relationships between indicators. As education rises, fertility is lower at a given level of contraceptive use, contraceptive use is higher at a given level of demand, and demand is higher at a given level of desired family size. The most plausible explanations for these shifting relationships are that better-educated women marry later and less often, use contraception more effectively, have more knowledge about and access to contraception, have greater autonomy in reproductive decision-making, and are more motivated to implement demand because of the higher opportunity costs of unintended childbearing.
 
We study the impact of differential fertility levels for the food-insecure and food-secure population on the long-run values of the population distribution and resources in a descriptive model where the food security states are determined by a historically given food distribution and the endogenous food production with resources and labour as inputs. Furthermore, we assume that the resource stock is reduced by poverty-driven environmental degradation. Moreover, we incorporate nutritional effects on labour productivity and mortality. By applying local bifurcation theory, we show that the model may exhibit multiple equilibria. Furthermore, the orbits of resources and the population distribution may be characterised by quasi-periodic behaviour. Sustainable development in terms of approaching a steady state with positive values of resources and food-secure population is only promoted by low fertility levels of the food-insecure and food-secure population.
 
There is a widespread expectation that the combination of significant population ageing in Europe over the coming decades, along with the fact that the elderly are more likely to have disabilities, will result in a large increase in the total prevalence of disability and the need for significantly expanded care facilities for the elderly. Recent evidence from the U.S., however, suggests that disability rates of the elderly are declining and that further declines could be expected in the future. In this paper we present alternative demographic scenarios for the European Union (EU-15) that distinguish between people with and without disabilities by age and sex. The results show that under the assumption of a constant age-specific disability profile, we indeed expect a significant increase in the total number of people with disabilities due to population ageing. However, if the age profile of disability is shifted to the right (i.e., to higher ages) by one, two, or three years per decade, the scenarios show a much lower or no increase in the number of persons with disabilities in Europe over the coming decades.
 
Total Fertility Rate of the Nordic countries, 1960-2005  
Age at which 50 per cent of women became mothers, cohorts born in 1935-1969  
Childlessness at age 40, female cohorts born in 1935-1959  
Cohort Total Fertility at age 40, female single-year cohorts born in 1935-1963  
This paper summarises the core findings of a recently finished network project on fertility dynamics and family policies in the Nordic countries. The network explored the findings of previous and ongoing separate research activities from a comparative perspective and carried out specially designed, comparative analyses for this project. Based on the network results and other existing research we review the collected evidence of the potential impacts of Nordic welfare policies on fertility. With cohort fertility levels around replacement level, the Nordic countries apparently have less to worry about concerning their future population development than most other European countries. Yet, some elements in the present trends suggest that there are still challenges ahead. In particular, we argue that the current fertility pattern may not be compatible with gender equality, a main goal for our societies.
 
Abbildung 1: Finanzierung Konsum über 59-jähriger Pensionisten  
Der langfristige Verlauf des Steueraufkommens wird an Hand der demografischen Entwicklung bis 2050 geschätzt. Produktivitätsveränderungen, Verschiebungen in der Erwerbsquote, Veränderungen in der Nettoersatzrate, im Konsum- und Sparverhalten sind auf Grund der demografischen Entwicklung sehr wahrscheinlich. All diese Faktoren dürften einen beträchtlichen Einfluss auf die Entwicklung des Steueraufkommens haben. Mittels der Schätzung unterschiedlicher demografischer Szenarien ­ vereinzelte beeinflussende Faktoren werden variiert, die Abgabenstruktur bleibt konstant ­ werden wahrscheinliche Veränderungen im Steueraufkommen analysiert sowie daraus abzuleitende notwendige Politikmaßnahmen diskutiert.
 
In this article we describe new research to investigate unintended pregnancies during the transition to adulthood. The Relationship Dynamics and Social Life (RDSL) study begins with a 60-minute in-person interview about family background and current relationship characteristics. At the conclusion of the interview, respondents are enrolled in an ongoing journal, which consists of a 5-minute survey via web or phone and occurs weekly for 2.5 years. We have enrolled over 1,000 young women in the study and have experienced excellent baseline response rates and high journal participation rates. Below we describe the limitations of past research on unintended pregnancy as a background for our study. Then we provide a detailed description of the study and its design strengths and weaknesses.
 
A graphic representation of the interaction of two unipolar pregnancy desire dimensions
In previous research I have theorised that there is a three-step motivational sequence that drives fertility behaviour, beginning with motivational traits, continuing with fertility desires and concluding with fertility intentions. In this article I focus on four properties of fertility desires and intentions, examining some recent research findings that bear on the similarities and differences between these two constructs. The four properties include the degree to which either construct has direct genetic antecedents, the degree to which either construct directly predicts behaviour, what type of dimension is used to measure each construct, and the effects that each construct has on the individual's satisfaction with being pregnant. The findings regarding these four properties suggest that fertility desires are intermediate between two evolutionally distinct motive systems that drive reproductive behaviour. The findings also suggest additional research questions that require further pursuit. Finally, the findings inform certain fertility-related policy issues, in particular the gap between desired or intended fertility and actual fertility.
 
Observed and standardised differences in cumulated fertility at age 25 by birth order, Belgium, cohorts 1951-80 versus cohort 1946-50 (base) 
Distribution of childless women aged 22-33 by age, educational level, household position and activity status, Belgium, 1991 census 
Fertility trends in Europe after 1970 are routinely referred to in terms of the postponement of fertility. The shortening of the effective reproductive lifespan and its association with post-materialist values have raised questions as to whether fertility can or will be recuperated. Decomposition of cohort fertility in Belgium by level of education shows that the postponement of fertility after 1970 is closely related to the expansion of education: compared with cohorts born in 1946-1950, 40 to 50 per cent of the difference in cumulated fertility at age 25 in the 1951-1975 birth cohorts is attributable to rising educational levels. Educational differentials also prove relevant with regard to the recuperation of fertility at older ages as the tempo and quantum of order-specific fertility have responded differently to variations in the economic and policy context, depending on the educational level considered. Differential fertility trends by level of education have thus attenuated the relationship between female educational attainment and completed fertility in recent cohorts.
 
Cohort fertility, average family size, and proportion of single children from a children's perspective, and concentration measures
Cohort fertility and parity progression rates by municipality type
Cohort fertility, average family size, and proportion of single children from a children's perspective, and concentration measures by educational attainment
Concentration ratios by educational attainment and profession for female birth cohorts 1945-56; selected professional groups
Cohort fertility, average family size, and proportion of single children from a children's perspective; concentration measures by educational attainment and intergenerational educational mobility; female birth cohorts 1932-56
In this paper, we explore the inter-individual diversity in fertility among women in Austria for the female birth cohorts 1917-1961. Comparative studies revealed that all Western countries have witnessed a decline in the concentration of reproduction during the 20th century, a trend that has reversed for the most recent cohorts that have reached the end of their reproductive period. This reversal, mainly triggered by an increase in childlessness, has been far less pronounced in Austria and limited to urban municipalities. Changes in fertility and concentration have followed very different trajectories by educational attainment as well as by the type of municipality in which women lived at age 15. Within educational categories, we found large differentials by profession and intergenerational educational mobility. A consequence of the concentration of reproduction is that the level of cohort fertility differs from the average sibship size seen from the children’s perspective. In the Austrian case, in contrast to the pronounced fertility differentials by educational attainment, the average sibship size experienced by children became almost independent of parents’ education. In difference to the negative correlation between fertility and concentration found in earlier studies for the first demographic transition and the baby boom, the fertility level and concentration moved in the same direction, and did so for an extended time period following the baby boom, accelerating changes from the children’s perspective.
 
This article presents analytical findings on the persistence and change of the relative difference in educational attainment by ethno-cultural group and gender in Canada. As these trends cannot be observed from a single data source, a modelling technique to integrate longitudinal data lacking ethno-cultural detail with cross-sectional Census data was developed. First- and second-generation immigrants and/or members of most visible minority groups on average reach higher educational levels than their Canadian-born peers not belonging to a visible minority. This study reveals that the relative educational differences between the studied groups are both important in extent and remarkably stable over birth cohorts. The research presented in this paper was conducted in the context of Statistics Canada’s population projection microsimulation model Demosim. Demosim marks an important milestone in establishing microsimulation for official population projections. It reflects the demand for models which can go beyond age and sex, capturing geographical detail, ethnic diversity, educational attainment and other characteristics.
 
It is the purpose of this paper to look at the extent to which the division of household work and childrearing tasks influence a couple's plans of further childbearing. We concentrate on women with one child, looking at the question whether women whose partners share the domestic responsibilities wish to have a second child more often than women with partners who do not help out. The data used in this study are drawn from the Austrian Fertility and Family Survey 1995/96 (FFS) which covered biographies of partnerships and childbearing, detailed information on the division of household chores and childcare duties between the two sexes as well as the desire for a(nother) child. We modelled the desire for a second child using a probit model. The major findings of the paper are that sharing childcare duties among couples is a driving force behind the plans for further childbearing, whereas the division of (traditionally feminine) household tasks between men and women has no explanatory power.
 
In this contribution we study intergenerational educational transmission within families in Austria. The paper is divided into an analytical part and a synthesis of the resulting behavioural models to a comprehensive computer microsimulation model that is used to project the future educational composition of the population. The models are based on retrospective event history data collected in the special programme of the 1996 micro-census, which was also used to generate the starting population for projections. The analysis of school choices reveals a very strong influence of parental educational attainment leading to strong intergenerational transmission mechanisms within families, i. e., considerable intergenerational persistence of educational careers within families. In contrast to the continuing educational expansion at the population level, very stable behavioural relationships can be found on the micro level when accounting for parental educational attainment. Our projections reveal that the educational expansion that we experienced in the last decades will continue at a very moderate speed in the next decades until an equilibrium is reached. In the equilibrium, half of the population will obtain a Matura diploma of which 30% will also graduate from university.
 
c: Projection of the share of one, two and 3+ person households under alternative future demographic scenarios  
b: Projection of the share of 15-29, 30-59 and 60+ years old household heads under alternative future demographic scenarios
Assumptions on future fertility and mortality levels
Change in car use under different demographic compositions; medium variant of the household projections
Understanding the factors driving demand for transportation in industrialized countries is important in addressing a range of environmental issues. Though non-economic factors have received less attention, recent research has found that demographic factors are important. While some studies have applied a detailed demographic composition to analyze past developments of transportation demand, projections for the future are mainly restricted to aggregate demographic variables such as numbers of people and/or households. In this paper, we go beyond previous work by combining cross-sectional analysis of car use in Austria with detailed household projections. We show that projections of car use are sensitive to the particular type of demographic disaggregation employed. For example, the highest projected car use - an increase of about 20 per cent between 1996 and 2046 - is obtained if we apply the value of car use per household to the projected numbers of households. However, if we apply a composition that differentiates households by size, age and sex of the household head, car use is projected to increase by less than 3 per cent during the same time period. (Keywords: household projections, car use demand, demographic composition)
 
Figure A4-1 Age-and order-specific incidence rates in December 2003 based on year cohort and month cohort data  
Figure A6-1: Mean annual values of the TFR, PATFR, PAP (both methods), and the adjPATFR in 1984-2004  
Figure A6-2: Mean annual values of TFR, PATFR, PAP, and the adjPATFR for birth order 1  
Short-term variations in fertility and seasonal patterns of childbearing have been of interest to demographers for a long time. Presenting our detailed study of period fertility in Austria since 1984, we discuss the problems and advantages of constructing and analysing monthly series of various period fertility indicators that reflect real exposure and potentially minimise the distortions caused by changes in fertility timing. We correct monthly birth data for calendar and seasonal factors and show that seasonality of births in Austria varies by birth order. Our study suggests that most of the timing distortions can be eliminated when using an indicator derived from the period parity progression ratios based on birth interval distributions, termed the "period average parity" (PAP). We illustrate the insights gained with the PAP and compare this with the commonly used total fertility rates in an analysis of the recent upswing in period fertility, starting in the late 2001. This investigation will be useful in establishing a monitoring of monthly fertility rates in Austria.
 
The identification and implementation of ways to avert the adverse future consequences of rapid population ageing represent urgent new public policy challenges. This paper synthesises the available knowledge on pronatalist policy options and assesses their potential impact by examining three fertility indicators: The total fertility rate, the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate and the personal ideal family size. Using recent data from thirteen European countries, the TFR is found to be lower than the ideal family size in each population. The two main reasons for this gap are tempo effects and economic, social and biological obstacles to the implementation of reproductive preferences. These factors together are estimated to average approximately 0.8 to 0.9 births per woman. Policy options to raise fertility without interfering with existing reproductive preferences are proposed. The concluding section briefly examines the impact of an increase in fertility on future trends in the old-age dependency ratio.
 
Like so many words that are bandied about, the word theory threatens to become meaningless. Because its referents are so diverse - including everything from minor working hypotheses, through comprehensive but vague and unordered speculations, to axiomatic systems of thought - use of the word often obscures rather than creates understanding.
 
This study investigates whether the fertility behaviour of significant others, in particular of one's parents and siblings, affects individuals' own fertility intentions and behaviour. Using the data of three cohorts of young Germans, we test the hypothesis that `contagion' by siblings with young children explains the transmission of fertility patterns across generations. In theory, transmission might be explained by contagion, or transmission and contagion might operate independently of each other. The results show strong evidence for the transmission of fertility intentions and behaviour from parents to their offspring. Evidence for contagion by siblings is weak and contagious effects therefore do not explain transmission.
 
This paper examines the fertility of female migrants in Germany. After introducing major hypotheses on migrant fertility we give an overview on German datasets that are available for migrant fertility research. Finally, descriptive and multivariate analyses based on the "Sample Survey of Selected Migrant Groups in Germany (RAM)" are presented. Migrant fertility in Germany differs according to the country of origin: among major migrant groups analysed, Turkish women show the highest and Polish women the lowest fertility level. Multivariate analysis shows that the existence of children born in the country of origin has a strong increasing effect on migrant fertility. Besides, migrant women with German partners have a lower fertility than women with non-German partners. Furthermore, the fertility of Muslim women is elevated when compared with other religious groups. In contrast, emotional ties with the country of origin and the level of native and German language skills show no influence on migrants' fertility.
 
Top-cited authors
Vegard Skirbekk
  • NIPH; Oslo University; Columbia University; Cracow University of Economics
Wolfgang Lutz
  • University of Vienna
Maria Rita Testa
  • Austrian Academy of Sciences (OeAW)
David Coleman
  • University of Oxford
Warren Miller
  • Transnational Family Research Institute