The Review of regional studies

Publications
Accordingly, the purpose of this Note is to examine the possible impact of geographic welfare differentials on interregional migration in Canada. The focus is on a net migration to Canada’s 22 largest central metropolitan areas (CMA’s) over the I965-I97I period. The model is structurally some what similar to Grant and Vanderkamp in its inclusion of the income and population variables.
 
Values for Dependent and Independent Variables
"There has recently been some speculation that the physical location of a community on the coast plays an equal or even more important role than does region in terms of the importance of geography upon population growth. This paper explores in empirical fashion the relative importance of coastal siting, as well as location, in the South or West, along with variables measuring economic base and demographic structure in explaining the relative rates of population growth in American metropolitan areas from 1980 to 1990."
 
"The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of a prolonged period of sustained low fertility upon shifts in the population distribution of the United States among Department of Energy (DOE) regions." The authors also examine the impact of demographic aging on income distribution up to the year 2000 using the assumptions made in the Series III population projections prepared by the U.S. Bureau of the Census in 1977. It is noted that migration will emerge as the primary agent for internal population redistribution.
 
Due to problems of model specification and identification, the results of Cebula’s test and his conclusions are questionable. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to correct the specification and identification errors found in Cebula’s paper and to provide an alternative test of the simultaneity hypothesis.
 
Means and Standard Deviations
"This paper utilizes 1980-89 data on Florida's metropolitan areas to test the hypothesis that fiscal variables have differing influences on the in-migration of the aged as compared to the general population. The model, which is based on the Tiebout hypothesis, tests the role of variables which represent public school-related finances and public assistance.... Consistent with the Teibout theory, the general population is found to prefer high public school-related spending and low taxes. The elderly, in contrast, choose locations where school spending and taxes are low. Nonschool-related taxes positively impact the migration of both groups. Contrary to previous studies, there is evidence of a role, albeit a mostly negative one, for the economic determinants of elderly migration. The possible importance of quality of life influences is also suggested by the findings."
 
When demographic rates are in flux, each age group within a regional population grows at a different rate. This paper analyzes the effects of changes in fertility, mortality, and net migration patterns on the growth of school entry-age populations in three states (Florida, South Carolina, and West Virginia) over the period 1950-1990. Fertility changes have had the largest influence on growth of these young populations, as common sense suggests. Changing migration patterns have been quite important, however, in explaining intertemporal and interspatial variations in growth rates. Furthermore, migration’s effects on age-specific growth rates can be counterintuitive. Most importantly, sustained net in-migration does not necessarily generate positive growth of age-specific populations within a state. We discuss some implications for policy and for improving population projections.
 
Regression Results
Ranking of SMSAs According to Desirability of Climate
How important is climate as a factor influencing people’s migration decisions? Although the number of scholarly studies dealing with the determinants of migration has grown substantially in recent years, the role of climate as a determinant of migration has not received the attention that it deserves. Only a few studies have examined in some detail the effect of climatic conditions on people’s decisions to migrate. These studies have found that climate does play an important role in determining the spatial allocation of migrants. Still, several issues concerning the role of climate on the migration decision remain unexplored. The purpose of this paper is to examine some of these issues. In addition to determining which climate variables significantly affect migration flows, we assess the relative sensitivity of migration to climatic versus nonclimatic factors. Also, our statistical results are used to rank various locations according to the desirability of their climates.
 
Growth of Sampled Wilderness Counties, 1970-1985
"A survey of residents of and migrants to 15 fast-growing wilderness counties [in the United States] showed that only 25 percent of the migrants increased their income, while almost 50 percent accepted income losses upon their moves to high-amenity counties. Concomitantly, amenities and quality of life were more important factors in the migration decision than was employment, for instance. We focused on migrants in the labor force and employed multinomial logistic regression to identify the impact of migrants' characteristics, their satisfaction/dissatisfaction with previous location (push), and the importance of destination features (pull) on income change."
 
"This paper focuses on how successfully non-metropolitan areas [in the United States] can compete for service-producing industry. Data on wage and salary employment for the 1969-84 period are used to assess how well non-metropolitan areas have been keeping up with metropolitan areas in expanding service jobs. Changes in patterns of employment growth in non-metropolitan and metropolitan service industries between 1969-76 and 1976-84 are described and these changes related to the growth pattern in goods-producing industries. In addition, data are used to identify the types of service activities that have concentrated in non-metropolitan areas."
 
continued)
The authors examine the linkage between household location decisions in the United States and county-level public sector attributes. "This paper demonstrates a relationship between migration and public policy and suggests a role for migration in regional development.... We link migration to public policy by treating tax and expenditure variables as site attributes in a utility maximization model. We find that public sector attributes, through their effect on migration, are among the determinants of regional development.... An additional contribution of this paper is to suggest that if taxes and public expenditures influence migration, then a general theory of local or regional policy aimed at economic development must include explicit consideration of migration." Microdata from the 1984-1985 U.S. National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) are analyzed.
 
Figure2 Australia: Statistical Divisions
Income Inequality Measures for Australian Statistical Divisions
This paper provides "empirical analysis of the nature of the relationship between economic development of regions and income inequality in Australian sub-state regions. It does so in the context of considering the validity of the 'augmented inverted U' hypothesis and the influence of factors such as the business cycle, political issues, and demographic trends, which are likely to cause income inequality to change over time." Data are from the Australian censuses for the years 1976 and 1981. excerpt
 
Although mean search time for nonmovers exceeded that of movers, the difference between the two groups was not statistically significant. Thus, based upon simple univariate analysis of the data, one cannot reject either the Schwartz or Seater hypotheses. In order to disen-
Past researchers, examining the duration of joblessness, have failed to include a variable to account for the unemployed's migration decision. By employing a simultaneous structure with a censored dependent variable and an endogenous binary migration variable, the present study demonstrates that single stage models, which do not control for migration, produce selectivity bias in the estimated duration equation. The empirical model used in this study provides estimated coefficients that differ significantly from those of single stage models. For example, most past studies conclude that nonwhites suffer longer periods of unemployment than whites. The findings from the present study indicate that, after controlling for geographic mobility, there is no statistical difference in unemployment duration between whites and nonwhites. -Authors
 
Factor Loadings, R-type Factor Analysis
Mean Values for City Groups, on 18 Factor Scales
"The research reported here presents a typology of small cities, as well as an analysis of the causes of population growth within city types. For this research eighty-eight incorporated cities and towns in the South Atlantic and East South Central census divisions [of the United States] were chosen for investigation, all having 1960 populations between 10,000 and 50,000." Path models are constructed for each city class using the decennial rate of population growth between 1960 and 1970 as the endogenous variable and net migration and employment changes as intermediate variables.
 
"This paper examines the impact of a college or military installation in a [U.S.] metropolitan area on the age structure of the migration for the area. We find that the presence of such institutions causes significant and systematic impacts on age patterns of in- and out-migration that may not be obvious a priori. Failure to account for these effects in studies of gross migration (whether or not aggregated over age groups), or of net migration by age, will typically lead to bias or to inefficiency in the results, depending on the techniques of analysis used."
 
The authors "present estimates of the elasticity of demand for labor [in the United States] by region for the manufacturing sector....A brief theoretical framework for analyzing the demand for labor is presented.... This framework is used to develop a model that is well suited to analyze interregional differences in the elasticity of demand for labor....[It is] shown that there are significant differences between regions in both substitution and output elasticities. This finding implies that there are significant differences in the total elasticity of demand for labor across regions; therefore, error may be expected when national demand elasticities are used to estimate regional responses to wage and output changes."
 
Survey Questions 1. Does your zoning ordinance explicitly consider historic sites?
Factor Patterns For Selected Sample Cities
Classification Matrix-Historic Zoning
The purpose of this study was to analyze the demographic characteristics of cities in view of their respective land use control posture. More specifically, the goal was to determine if the cities implementing what might be termed progressive planned growth zoning practices could be identified on the basis of their demographic characteristics. These policies can be identified as progressive insofar as they represent much more than zoning. If similar demographic characteristics were shared by cities currently implementing such planned growth zoning practices perhaps further research and study could predict under what circumstances other cities might wish to or be expected to implement similar ordinances.
 
The authors "examine empirically the impact on geographic mobility [in the United States] of explicitly including geographic living costs in the migration decision calculus."
 
"In this paper the determinants of [the] migration [of elderly people] are analyzed with special reference to how cost of living influences the selection of a destination by migrating elderly persons (55 and over) during 1975-1980 [in the United States]. The results of the study support the hypothesis that cost of living differentials provide the elderly an incentive to move that is not unlike the incentive wage differentials provide members of the labor force. The results indicate that cost of living differentials among groups of Florida counties have a major impact on the migration decisions of elderly households."
 
Average Annual Net Flow, by Type of Area of Destination and
The author "has examined trends in interstate migration during the 1970s for the four regions of the United States and, in particular, explored the relationship of this migration with nonmetropolitan expansion and the return to the city movement. The data show that the former trend is a very real one which has persisted throughout the decade and that population growth through interstate migration in nonmetropolitan America is, on balance, the result of nonblacks moving to the South from elsewhere in the nation. Except in the West, central cities continue to experience substantial losses of population through interstate migration. Interstate migration continues to be directed toward suburbs, and is especially vigorous in the West." Data are from the March 1975 and March 1979 Current Population Surveys.
 
"The dynamic relationship of net migration and employment change is examined for ten selected states of the U.S. using a multivariate time series approach--a vector autoregression (VAR) model. Granger causality tests and dynamic multipliers provide information on the dynamic process. The results suggest a state-level process in which employment change occurs first, and net migration follows with a lag. The procedure appears promising in investigating the timing of net migration and regional employment change."
 
Information Flow Model
In recent years there have been a number of studies on the socioeconomic determinants of human migration in this journal and elsewhere. Most of these migration studies utilized census data because of lack of time series data. One exception was the excellent article by Walsh studying Irish migration to Britain. The present study follows Walsh in testing the same econometric models but for internal (South-North) migration in Italy. The present study utilizes somewhat more reliable and disaggregated data than used by Walsh, tests some additional relevant variables, and obtains results which are statistically more significant and which also conform better with theoretical dictates.
 
Variance-Covariance Matrix for Employment in the Region and Five Potential Industries
Efficiency of Capital Usage for Each Proposed Industry
Illustrative Example Solution
"This paper provides a one-period normative model that may be used as a guide or benchmark by which the economic planner may develop policies and plans for regional economic development. The model can accomodate a region that could be as large as a small country or as small as a city, provided sufficient relevant data are available." The authors outline "a procedure for modeling and solving economic planning and analysis problems with 'intergoal trade-offs' while retaining the deviational variable as a measure of satisfaction....[They present] a generalized regional polynomial goal programming model with some suggested objectives and constraints [and illustrate] the approach with a hypothetical example."
 
"We take advantage of a large panel data base covering most Norwegian municipalities during seven years to examine the relationship between local public services and migration to and from municipalities for different age groups. The main innovation of the paper is that we use a survey data set to verify that the input measures employed as explanatory variables in the migration study actually are related to citizen satisfaction with local public services. We find that the results depend crucially on whether the input measures are instrumented. When input measures are instrumented, we find few effects of local public services on migration."
 
"This paper provides an empirical test of the hypothesis that migrants consider income risk in their evaluation of the returns to migration in that higher levels of income risk for a given region reduce the rate of net migration into that region." Theoretical approaches to the incorporation of income risk in migration models are first considered, and alternative approaches are then tested using data on white and nonwhite net migration in the United States between 1960 and 1970. The results indicate support for the hypothesis that the extent of net migration is inversely affected by income risk.
 
Variables Selected for Estimating the Determinants of Residential and Firm Location Change VARIABLE DESCRIPTION 
Factor Analysis Groupings of Census Tract Characteristics, Fringe and Hinterland Tracts, South Carolina 
"This study investigates the influence of school quality (measured at the high school level) on 1980 to 1990 population and employment change for nonmetropolitan fringe and hinterland census tracts in South Carolina. A Boarnet variation of the Carlino-Mills model is used to examine the interdependence of population and employment change.... Results...indicate that fringe tracts' population growth was positively related to student test scores, and hinterland tracts population and employment growth were negatively related to student-teacher ratios. Empirical results suggest that local school quality provided a positive influence on rural growth, primarily in terms of residential growth. The role of school quality for employment growth was less clear."
 
Data for the United States for the period 1970-1977 are used to examine the Tiebout hypothesis of "voting with one's feet", which involves geographic movement to express one's preferenes for public goods. The findings "indicate that white consumer-voters over the period 1970-1977 did in fact vote with their feet with respect to welfare, public education, and property taxation; futhermore, the results presented...are entirely compatible with those of earlier periods (the 1950's and 1960's)." excerpt
 
Comparative Climate Amenities: Selected Mexican and U.S. Cities
continued)
The relevance of concepts of equilibrium to the analysis of migration between Mexico and the United States is examined. A theoretical model applicable to this type of international migration is first developed. The next section "presents some limited and tentative empirical observations and suggests the knowledge which might be needed for a more precise understanding of the utility differentials between countries which give rise to migration, legal or illegal." A final section is devoted to the policy implications of this approach to migration analysis.
 
Data Set Statistics by Prior Mobility Experience
The effect of previous geographic mobility on the length of an unemployed person's job search in the United States is examined. "This study proposed that knowledge of regional wage differentials and other market conditions give a worker with prior geographic mobility experience a better stock of information than one who has worked all of his or her work life in the same geographical location. It is proposed that this superior stock of information has a significant impact on the amount of time it takes an unemployed worker to locate and accept a job." Data are from the 1981 Panel Study of Income Dynamics.
 
Treatments Across Subject Pool 
"This study develops a methodology that allows migration decision-making to be studied in a laboratory experimental setting. Moreover, this methodology permits an examination of the importance of natural and man-made hazards in migration decisions--factors that have not been extensively studied as determinants of migration. The specific application is to the location of the U.S. nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Empirical results suggest that the repository may influence employment-related migration, but probably not retirement migration."
 
"The purpose of this paper is to examine some of the consequences of [U.S.] migration trends from 1970-1980, focusing on the relationship of income inequality within a state with population shifts within and across states. Furthermore, we wish to determine if the movement of wealth and the changing employment opportunities [have] had any effect on the distribution of income within the four census regions and for urban and rural populations across all fifty states." Data are from the 1970 and 1980 censuses.
 
The question of the relative importance of various migration determinants has heen raised in recent migration research. Some of the associated debate has resulted from the inevitable squabbling among the proponents of various disciplines over the variables of their own special interest — economic, sociologic, geographic, etc., but much of the debate has real substance and policy significance. From an economic perspective, if differential regional incomes and unemployment are less important migration determinants than individualistic and personal factors (like amenities and better quality of life), then migration does not have the important equilibrating quality so frequently attributed to it. Without migration to equalize factor prices, commodity trade and capital movements become strained as equilibrating factors and the conclusions of the neoclassical regional growth model, Borts and Stein [1964], are less likely to he obtained. In that case, national output would he suhoptimized by regional concentrations of labor, and regional policy would have to become aimed at finding viable means of properly redistributing population.
 
Parameter Estimates for Job Search Transitions Over the Period January 1987-March 1989a
In this study we investigate migration’s effect on labor market transitions. Specifically, we explore transition rates out of unemployment (to employment) and from nonparticipation to active job search. To facilitate this, a multistate model of the hazard rate is developed and subsequently estimated. Our results strongly suggest that migration is both directly and indirectly associated with a suc-cessful transition to re-employment.
 
Model I-Earnings and Unemployment
A major shortcoming of existing research on human migration is its lack of comparability. Widely different sets of explanatory variables, demographic groups, geographic units, and sample sizes have been used. Often the absence of explicit disciplinary theory makes it difficult to interpret these findings or make any confident generalizations or predictions about population shifts. In response to this weakness, this paper examines patterns of age-race specific net migration of males between United States metropolitan areas for I960 to 1970 using three models of migration, each of which has a distinct conceptual underpinning. The first model draws on several neoclassical economic perspectives, the second discusses the influence of non-traded goods, and the third derives and tests an ecological model of migration.
 
In a recent issue of this Review, Premus and Weinstein (7, p. 11) allege to “. .. correct the specification and identification errors in …” a paper on welfare levels and non-white migration patterns which I (2) had earlier published in another journal. Premus and Weinstein (hereafter P-W) first critique my paper and then offer a “corrected” model upon which they base certain policy implications. The purposes of this reply are, first, to critique the model and results in the P-W paper and, second, then to offer an alternative model on non-white migration and welfare.
 
Regional econometric forecasting accuracy assessment has traditionally received less attention than its macroeconometric counterpart. While evidence is available that state and local employment forecasts perform well relative to standard benchmarks, little is known about the historical performance of widely cited regional housing start forecasts. This paper attempts to partially fill that gap in the literature by assessing the accuracy of previously published residential construction forecasts for Florida and its six largest metropolitan areas. Results indicate that regional econometric housing start forecasts are less reliable than regional employment structural model forecasts.
 
Taxpayers are concerned that introducing a charter school in their neighborhood will decrease their property values. We test this proposition by using three methods. We test the size and significance of the distance from a charter school with respect to property values; weather the intervention of a charter school changes the forecasted value of the property; and if the distance from a charter school has a different impact than the distance from a public school in similar neighborhoods. For the most part, we find little evidence that the existence of a charter school affects property values.
 
Location of Rural Counties, 1970 and 2000
Average Population Growth (in Percentage Change) By County Type, 1970-2000
Difference in Average Growth of Population, Employment and Real Income, 1970 Rural-
Description and Source of Variables Used in Regression Analysis
Beale codes are an important tool for examining rural urban differences in socioeconomic trends. However, as population changes, counties’' designations also change over time. This feature of Beale codes is commonly overlooked by researchers, yet it has important implications for understanding rural growth. Since the fastest growing counties grow out of their rural status, use of the most recent codes excludes the most successful rural counties. Average economic performance of the countries remaining rural significantly understates the true performance of rural counties. This paper illustrates that choice of Beale code can alter conclusions regarding the relative speed of rural and urban growth across a variety of commonly used social and economic indicators. The bias can alter conclusions regarding the magnitude and even the sign of factors believed to influence growth. Most strikingly, the estimated impact of human capital on rural growth is completely reversed when the sample is based on end-of-period rather than relative growth across counties can also yield misleading inferences. Therefore, both academicians and policy-makers must be careful to use appropriate Beale code designations and time frames in evaluating prescriptions for rural growth.
 
This study uses Iowa Hospital Association records related to inpatient and outpatient procedures performed at rural Iowa hospitals to examine how institutional, location, and individual characteristics affect choice of hospitals for rural residents. The rural residents most likely to bypass their local hospitals are younger people with private outpatient insurance already living a long distance from any hospital. Complex procedures and life-threatening illnesses can reduce the probability of choosing the nearest rural hospital. Rural residents also appear less likely to bypass the nearest rural hospital for outpatient services.
 
A county-level labor market model is estimated for the thirteen Southern states. The model accounts for inter-county commuting, migration, and within-county adjustments to labor demand shocks. Econometric results indicate that most employment growth (60-70%) during the 1990s was accommodated by changes in commuting flows. The results also suggest that labor force growth - and, by extension, population growth and associated fiscal impacts - in rural counties is sensitive to employment growth in nearby counties. These results highlight two opposing forces related to spatial spillovers that are usually neglected in analyses of the economic and fiscal impacts of rural employment growth.
 
Summary Statistics
This study examines the role of recreational amenities, both within the county as well in neighboring counties, on employment growth using data from 618 counties in the U.S. midwest. Using a wide range of amenity variables and spatial econometric methods, we find that natural and recreational amenities have played a role in non-farm employment growth over the years 1969 to 2000. Further, the results also indicate that the presence of recreational amenities in neighboring counties have also played an important role in explaining employment growth as opposed to only amenities within the county itself.
 
[eng] Transportation costs and monopoly location in presence of regional disparities. . This article aims at analysing the impact of the level of transportation costs on the location choice of a monopolist. We consider two asymmetric regions. The heterogeneity of space lies in both regional incomes and population sizes: the first region is endowed with wide income spreads allocated among few consumers whereas the second one is highly populated however not as wealthy. Among the results, we show that a low transportation costs induces the firm to exploit size effects through locating in the most populated region. Moreover, a small transport cost decrease may induce a net welfare loss, thus allowing for regional development policies which do not rely on inter-regional transportation infrastructures. cost decrease may induce a net welfare loss, thus allowing for regional development policies which do not rely on inter-regional transportation infrastructures. [fre] Cet article d�veloppe une statique comparative de l'impact de diff�rents sc�narios d'investissement (projet d'infrastructure conduisant � une baisse mod�r�e ou � une forte baisse du co�t de transport inter-r�gional) sur le choix de localisation d'une entreprise en situation de monopole, au sein d'un espace int�gr� compos� de deux r�gions aux populations et revenus h�t�rog�nes. La premi�re r�gion, faiblement peupl�e, pr�sente de fortes disparit�s de revenus, tandis que la seconde, plus homog�ne en termes de revenu, repr�sente un march� potentiel plus �tendu. On montre que l'h�t�rog�n�it� des revenus constitue la force dominante du mod�le lorsque le sc�nario d'investissement privil�gi� par les politiques publiques conduit � des gains substantiels du point de vue du co�t de transport entre les deux r�gions. L'effet de richesse, lorsqu'il est associ� � une forte disparit� des revenus, n'incite pas l'entreprise � exploiter son pouvoir de march� au d�triment de la r�gion l
 
This paper presents a test of Mancur 0lson’s theory of the role that labor cartelization plays in determining interregional variations in unemployment rates. In Olson’s theory, the regional degree of labor cartelization contributes to interregional variations in unemployment rates. We show that Olson’s theory may be validated in the context of an empirical model that accommodates not only his theory, but also a competing hypothesis due to Freeman and Medoff, as well as business-cycle and sectoral shift related explanations of interregional variations in unemployment rates. Nevertheless, our results also offer partial substantiation of the Freeman and Medoff hypothesis. According to Freeman and Medoff, the positive relation between variation in degrees of unionization and unemployment rates among geographic regions may reflect the concentration of unions in older industrial parts of the economy.
 
The distributional effects of three water policies are compared using spatial data from New Castle County, Delaware. The analysis reveals that a 591 percent increase in the marginal price of water achieves the same 25 percent reduction in consumption as rationing and mandatory restrictions. However, the distributional effects of pricing are distinct. Under rationing, households with low consumption must forgo essential uses. Mandatory restrictions are more equitable, shifting the conservation burden to residents living on larger parcels. With a threshold to protect essential consumption, the pricing policy places the burden of conservation on households with higher incomes and larger parcel sizes.
 
This paper examines the retail trade sector in 14 West Virginia counties from 1989 through 1996. A series of random effects models are tested on these panel data to measure the effect of the entrance of Wal- Mart stores in the county and in adjacent counties, and business cycle effects. This paper differs from earlier research in that it controls for endogeneity in the entrance decision of Wal-Mart in faster growing counties. This research finds a dramatic net increase in employment and wages in the Retail Trade sector (SIC 52) and a mild increase in the number of firms. The study finds a per capita wage increase in this industry, which is surprising but small. The paper concludes with further research recommendations.
 
The Joint Effects of Taxes and Spending
A large and growing literature to explain how state and local policies affect factor markets, firm location and economic growth has developed in three distinct threads. These threads have variously emphasized how policy and natural amenities affect regional economic growth or firm location; how variations in policy and natural amenities can lead to persistent wage differentials across regions; and how regional variation in factor inputs, including public capital, affects output. In this article, we expand the modeling framework of Roback and Gyourko and Tracy to integrate these threads into a single inquiry about how state and local policies—including the provision public capital—affects factor markets and economic growth. Using the model as the basis for estimation, we find that state and local policies have a more profound influence on the private capital-to-labor ratio in a region than on private output. Furthermore, the evidence suggests that the growth of government—either in the form of services or public capital—discourages private sector growth.
 
Determinants of decision to migrate. Demographics AGE Age in years. AGESQ Age in years squared. SEX Gender (1=Female, 0=Male)
: Foreign-born residents constitute approximately eleven percent of the Swedish population. This level has been reached after steady immigration during the post-war years and has been accompanied in recent decades with proportionately more non-European immigrants. Immigration has implications for Swedish regional economic development for two reasons examined here. First, immigrant settlement patterns are somewhat different from those of native Swedes. Second, immigrant internal migration behaviour, after arriving in Sweden, differs from native Swedes. This paper focuses on this second consequence of immigration. It examines the migration decisions of immigrants after initial settlement and the demographic, socio-economic, and cultural variables that influence them. It finds that immigrants differ from natives in migration behaviour, mainly because of the role that the size of immigrant communities plays in the decision to migrate and choice of destination. The implications of these res...
 
Mobility and Migration, by Decade, Ages 18 and Over
Continued) Multinomial Logit Coefficients for Residential Mobility and Migration
This report simultaneously examines alternative mobility decisions and changes in the demographic determinants of residential mobility over the period 1940-80. Alternative mobility decisions are defined as the choice to move locally, to migrate within a state, or to migrate between states. Determinants of mobility include age, race, sex, and educational attainment. A polychotomous multivariate model of mobility was used to analyze data drawn from the public use microdata samples (PUMS) of the decennial censuses of 1940, 1960, 1970, and 1980. Conclusions include the following: (1) educational attainment promotes migration, but not local mobility; (2) the influence of education declines with age up to age 30; (3) blacks are less mobile and migratory than the rest of the population; (4) there is no discernible time trend in racial differentials; (5) females are slightly more locally mobile than males and less migratory with no apparent time trend; and (6) home ownership has a stronger limiting effect on migration than on local mobility. Statistical data are included on five tables. A list of 42 references and three tables of statistical data on geographic mobility by age, education, and race are appended. (FMW)
 
This paper investigates Smith's (1989) thesis that county drop out rates have been self-perpetuating in the rural South, a pattern reinforced by the presence of mining and manufacturing employers with few skill demands. The results show that the associations of mining and manufacturing with high drop out rates, notable as late as 1980, have largely disappeared. But counties with high proportions of female headed families and low young adult (age 25-44) education continue to have little improvement in high schools completion. The extent of perpetuation of low education varies by state, whether due to differences education policies or economic structures.
 
U.S. states during the 1977-1986 business cycle are found to have small but significant technical inefficiency in the private sector. Inefficiency is influenced by several factors, including prior economic performance, location, Hicks labor augmenting technical progress in the manufacturing sector in an earlier 1970s period, college graduation, and income inequality. The existence of a monetary channel, urban agglomeration, and a high school diploma "sheepskin" effect for improved technical efficiency are rejected. Results from earlier studies using noneconometric methods to measure technical efficiency are independently confirmed, indicating that interstate technical inefficiency exists and can be measured using both parametric and nonparametric methods, but may overestimate how different states are from each other.
 
Top-cited authors
James P. Lesage
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Stephan Goetz
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Douglas P. Woodward
  • University of South Carolina
Frank Hefner
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Philip Paulo
  • Juba National University (Juba City)