This paper examines age patterns of net migration for US counties, arguing that the shift in the character of population redistribution will be reflected in the age structure of net migration across counties. The authors hypothesize that the increased specialization of counties with respect to activities characteristic of particular states of the life cycle would be evident in the greater dispersion of net migration rates at selected ages. For the 1950s and the 1960s, the authors used net migration estimates for US counties calculated by age, race, and sex by Gladys Bowles and colleagues. For 1970-1980, the authors constructed estimates. The study analyzed over 3000 counties or county equivalents. The results of the analysis confirm the importance of changes in age- specific patterns and provide support for the hypothesis. The increasing importance of localized amenities and an associated growth of age-specialized institutional structures across location, serves to increase concentration of net migration in certain age groups. Specifically, 1) nonmetropolitan counties become particularly attractive to migrants in their late 20s and early 30s; 2) since 1970, the dispersion of net migration rates for those over 30 have increased appreciably; 3) the degree of dispersion differs greatly across regions and is especially large among counties in the West; 4) metropolitan counties exhibit declines in the dispersion of net migration rate from the 1950s to the 1960s, which may indicate the exhaustion of the most attractive urban opportunities; and 5) since 1970, dispersion has increased, especially for rates applying to those over age 55, suggesting increased age specialization among metropolitan counties. Thus, changes in both the median rates of net migration and the dispersion of those rates are consistent with increased specialization in the age-related opportunities and services those counties provide. New patterns of net migration by age suggest that change in both the causes and effects of migration go far beyond a simple shift in the balance of population flows.
The authors "estimate interprovincial migration models for Canada with special emphasis on determining the importance of fiscal variables as inducements to migrate. This is important because of suggestions that fiscal surpluses may cause inefficient migration. There may be too little migration out of the maritimes because of federal transfers and there may be too much migration into the western provinces as a result of large resource rents." (summary in FRE)
"Migration is much more than a simple transfer of individuals from one region to another.... It also implies a transfer of 'years to be lived' and 'children to be born'. Rogers' multidimensional demographic model allows one to measure such an induced impact. The results obtained show that, in the case of interprovincial migration in Canada, this induced impact is far from being proportional to the direct impact in terms of individuals transferred." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
excerpt
An analysis of repeat migration among the 44 economic regions of Canada is presented for the period 1969-1971. Specifically, the authors attempt to analyze the spatial variability of rates of different types of multiple migration and to speculate upon the implications of revealed regularities for the modeling of migration behavior.
"This paper analyzes the joint effects of ecological and personal factors on elderly migration in Canada in the late 1970s, using information on migration and personal factors extracted from the individual file of the 1981 Public Use Sample. Our focus on elderly Canadians stems from the expectation that the Canadian population will continue to age rapidly over the next three decades and that the elderly's demand for services (for example, health care and income maintenance) will expand rapidly as a consequence. Some of these services are clearly location-specific and should be matched to the changing distribution of the elderly population, which is, of course, affected by geographic mobility." (SUMMARY IN FRE)
The purpose of this paper "is to discuss some of the major sources of existing [Canadian] internal migration data, especially interprovincial migration data, and to provide some comparisons and evaluations of the various data sets. The analysis will relate to gross migration rates, correlations of migration matrices, net-gross migration ratios, and net impact measures, and it will also include specific case studies of the migration experience of some Canadian provinces in the last few decades." (SUMMARY IN FRE)
"The objective in this study has been to produce...a comprehensive inventory and analysis of the transfer of Canada's population between the rural and urban sectors and of the pattern of population exchange between the various levels of the urban hierarchy. The hierarchical exchanges have been investigated both for Canada's rural-urban system in the aggregate and for the regional subsystems operating within each of the five major geographic divisions of the nation: the Atlantic Region, Quebec, Ontario, the Prairies, and British Columbia. Differences in the pattern of movement through the hierarchy have also been explored for age-specific groups of the population, including young adults, the middle-aged, and the elderly." Data are from the 1976 Canadian census and cover the period 1971-1976. (SUMMARY IN FRE)
Vanderkamp argues that the available empirical evidence on the human capital model as applied to migration has enough problems to generate skepticism about its validity. He tests for the validity of the human capital model as applied to migration, with particular emphasis on labor market determinants and consequences. Evidence suggests that people tend to migrate in larger numbers over shorter distances, and from regions with low average wages, low rates of employment growth, and excess supply to regions with high average wages, high employment growth, and excess demand. Despite these tendencies, there has been little change in the ranking of regions with regard to any of these variables. The estimated pay-offs to migration have been small.
This paper reviews Shaw's book, INTERMETROPOLITAN MIGRATION IN CANADA, which provides new evidence concerning the link between fiscal structure and internal migration. Shaw bases his work on a valuable new migration series he has put together from census data: intermetropolitan flows from 1956-1981. The existence of censua data at 5-year intervals permits Shaw enough data to estimate migration equations separately for the periods before and after 1971. A comparison of the role of fiscal variables before and after 1971 is interesting because unemployment insurance, equalization payments, and provincial natural resource revenues probably became more important in determining regional differences in incomes after 1971 than in the 20 years prior to that. Shaw suspects that migration behavior has become less sensitive to traditional market variables such as wage differentials and more sensitive to other factors, including quality of life indicators since 1950. The author thinks that Shaw's conclusion cannot rest comfortably on estimating equations that omit fiscal variables. The overall role of wage differentials in determining observed migration patterns is the product of the coefficient on wage variables and the actual evolution of wages over the estimation period. Another problem with the methodology used to contrast pre- and post-1971 migration equations is the apparent neglect of statistical testing for shifts in coefficients on the traditional economic variables and for shifts in the coefficients on the fiscal variables. The strongest of the useful results from the study concern the role of unemployment insurance. The evidence that these have an influence on internal migration is now compelling. Shaw's book adds substantial weight to the view that variation in fiscal structure plays a significant role in determining internal migration patterns.
The author comments on a review of his recent book NEW DIRECTIONS IN MIGRATION RESEARCH and reflects on theory and model specification, problems of estimation and statistical inference, realities of temporal and spatial heterogeneity, choices of explanatory variables, and the importance of broader political issues in migration studies. A core hypothesis is that market forces have declined as influences on internal migration in Canada over the last 30 years. Theoretical underpinnings include declining relevance of wage considerations in the decision to migrate on the assumption that marginal utility of money diminishes and marginal utility of leisure increases as society becomes wealthier. The author perceives the human capital model to have limitations and is especially troubled by the "as if" clause--that all migrants behave "as if" they calculate benefits and risks with equal rigor. The author has "shadowed" and not quantified the costs involved. He implies that normative frameworks for future migration research and planning should be established.
"To provide new insight into the evolution of multiregional population systems, this article presents a dynamic study of a nonlinear variant of the components-of-change model. In this variant, migrants out of a region do not distribute themselves among destination regions in constant proportions (as in the classical linear variant). Rather their allocation is proportional to that of population (weighted so as to account for the difficulty to move between regions). The analysis focuses on the existence, characteristics, and determination of equilibrium states. It is illustrated with an application to the population of Canada and its five large regions." (summary in ENG)
excerpt
This article investigates the determinants of repeat migration among the 44 regions of Canada, using information from a large micro-database which spans the period 1968 to 1971. The explanation of repeat migration probabilities is a difficult task, and this attempt is only partly successful. May of the explanatory variables are not significant, and the overall explanatory power of the equations is not high. In the area of personal characteristics, the variables related to age, sex, and marital status are generally significant and with expected signs. The distance variable has a strongly positive effect on onward move probabilities. Variables related to prior migration experience have an important impact that differs between return and onward probabilities. In particular, the occurrence of prior moves has a striking effect on the probability of onward migration. The variable representing disappointment, or relative success of the initial move, plays a significant role in explaining repeat migration probabilities. The disappointment variable represents the ratio of actural versus expected wage income in the year after the initial move, and its effect on both repeat migration probabilities is always negative and almost always highly significant. The repeat probabilities diminish after a year's stay in the destination region, but disappointment in the most recent year still has a bearing on the delayed repeat probabilities. While the quantitative impact of the disappointment variable is not large, it is difficult to draw comparisons since similar estimates are not available elsewhere.
In this paper we seek to add to the understanding of the cost characteristics of Atlantic Canadian manufacturing. We examine the effects of public infrastructure on provincial manufacturing costs. The modelling technique employed is that of the CES-TL variable system.
Le périurbain est soumis à des conflits d'usages : le développement économique et l'accueil de population relèvent d'autres logiques que celle de l'occupation du territoire par l'agriculture. Cette concurrence se traduit par des conversions de parcelles viticoles en industriel ou en résidentiel. On est alors amené à s'interroger sur les déterminants de conversion de ces deux usages. Notre approche considèrera les déterminants des localisations des ménages et entreprises avant de s'intéresser à leurs impacts sur la probabilité de conversion des parcelles à l'aide d'un modèle Logit multinomial. Les facteurs de conversion résidentielle n'éclairent pas toujours les mécanismes de conversion en zone industrielle, la variable d'accessibilité expliquant la substitution de ce dernier usage.
Richard Florida’s ‘creative class’ theory suggests that diverse, tolerant, ‘cool’ cities will outperform others. Ethnic minorities, gay people and counter-culturalists attract high-skilled professionals: the presence of this ‘creative class’ ensures cities get the best jobs and most dynamic companies. This paper examines Florida’s ideas, focusing on the evidence in British cities. Drawing on previously published work, it first tests the Florida model on a set of British cities, finding weak support for the creative class hypothesis. It then examines this hypothesis in detail. It finds little evidence of a creative class, and little evidence that ‘creative’ cities do better. The paper concludes that the creative class model is a poor predictor of UK city performance. There is other, stronger evidence that diversity and creativity are linked to urban economic growth.
À l'échelle internationale la France n'est pas entrepreneuriale et montre un déficit de créations d'entreprises innovantes. A l'échelle régionale les régions urbanisées et technologiquement développées mais aussi les régions attractives disposant d'aménités touristiques sont les plus entrepreneuriales. A l'échelle infrarégionale la dynamique entrepreneuriale bas-normande est largement déterminée par l'éloignement aux centres urbains. Les espaces ruraux en développement sont alors concentriquement distribués autour de la capitale régionale. Les espaces ruraux en cours de désertification localisés dans le sud du département de la Manche et l'ouest du département de l'Orne ont la plus faible dynamique entrepreneuriale et sont les plus éloignés de Caen.
Cet article poursuit deux objectifs. Premièrement, il s’agit de vérifier si les écoles primaires accueillant des enfants
issus de milieux défavorisés sont disproportionnellement localisées à proximité des aéroports, dans la région métropolitaine
de Toronto. Deuxièmement, il s’agit de vérifier si les écoles primaires avec des niveaux de bruit aérien élevés présentent des
niveaux de réussite scolaire plus faibles. L’étude porte sur 1420 écoles primaires publiques ou catholiques. Les courbes NEF ont
été utilisées comme indicateur de gêne causée par le bruit des avions. Treize variables décrivant les caractéristiques des écoles
et de leur clientèle ont été recueillies au niveau de chaque établissement pour l’année scolaire 2017-2018 à partir de données
du Gouvernement de l’Ontario et du Ministère de l’Éducation. Des tests de Student ont été effectués pour réaliser le diagnostic
d’équité environnementale alors que pour évaluer l’impact du bruit aérien sur la réussite scolaire, douze modèles de régression ont
été construits. Les résultats des tests de Student démontrent que les écoles primaires avec des niveaux plus élevés de bruit aérien
accueillent une clientèle plus souvent issue de milieux défavorisés et d’une langue maternelle autre que la langue d’enseignement.
Concernant la réussite scolaire, les écoles dans la zone NEF présentent des taux de réussite significativement plus faibles. Par
contre, une fois contrôlées les caractéristiques sociodémographiques, le bruit aérien n’est plus significativement associé à des taux
de réussite plus faibles.
Cet article apporte des éclaircissements quant à l’existence d’une croissance urbaine aléatoire pour les cas Canadien et Australien.
La détection de ces processus passe par un approfondissement du protocole de test en distinguant trois spécifications : marche
aléatoire pure, avec dérive, et avec dérive et tendance. L’article démontre que la croissance urbaine comporte effectivement une
dimension aléatoire. Les petites aires urbaines y sont plus sensibles et leur croissance dépend exclusivement de chocs. Les
grandes aires urbaines et celles qui détiennent des activités économiques métropolitaines, croissent sous l’effet d’une tendance
déterministe diluant l’effet des chocs, les rendant moins fragiles.
Cet article se base sur l’analyse d’une recherche ethnologique menée entre 2014 et 2018 en Balagne, sur le littoral nordouest de la Corse. Après avoir analysé les mobilisations habitantes et les politiques publiques locales portant sur les sentiers de proximité, nous nous demanderons si les chemins ruraux peuvent constituer un « bien commun » mobilisateur pour enclencher une dynamique territoriale vertueuse, à la fois respectueuse de l’environnement et des habitants. La dynamique collective observée peut-elle être analysée comme un processus d’innovation territoriale visant un développement « juste » et intégré d’un espaceécologiquement fragile et soumis à une pression anthropique forte ?
Cet article a pour objet de construire un ensemble d'indicateurs permettant d'identifier les points critiques de congestion et d'analyser le temps perdu par les automobilistes afin d'identifier les impacts différenciés de la congestion sur les territoires urbains et périurbains de la métropole bordelaise. Afin de mieux comprendre les effets combinés de l'accroissement des prix fonciers et immobiliers et de la congestion urbaine sur le niveau de vulnérabilité des ménages et des territoires, ce papier propose de développer une approche spatiale de l'impact de la congestion urbaine sur les choix de mobilité et de localisation des ménages. Après avoir justifié l'intérêt d'une telle démarche et précisé les facteurs théoriques commandant l'impact local de la congestion, l'article présente la méthode de construction d'indicateurs territoriaux de congestion urbaine puis propose une estimation des impacts territoriaux de la congestion sur les différents territoires.
Cet article présente l'intérêt et les manières d'attirer et de retenir les centres d'appels dans une région, ainsi que les questions que posent les institutions régionales vis-‐à-‐vis de ces structures parfois jugées négativement. Trois questions sont considérées. D'abord, quels sont les enjeux de l'attraction-‐rétention des centres d'appels? Nous essayons de mieux saisir les objectifs que les acteurs institutionnels se fixent dans cet exercice, ainsi que les positionnements stratégiques qu'ils adoptent. Deuxièmement, quels sont les fac-‐ teurs d'attraction et de rétention qui conduisent les centres d'appels à choisir un terri-‐ toire plutôt qu'un autre? Nous analysons ainsi les éléments qu'analysent les centres d'appels pour choisir leur lieu d'implantation. Troisièmement, quels sont les leviers des acteurs institutionnels pour accroitre la capacité d'attraction-‐rétention de leur territoire? Nous observons les pratiques des institutions pour agir sur les facteurs identifiés, ainsi que leur capacité à stimuler les choix des centres d'appels par des financements et leur accompagnement.
